S&P Gap Fill Ahead: How to Trade NVDA, GOOGL & AMD Right Now

[music] >> Welcome to today's best trade setups. My name is Benjamin Pool, head trader here at Verified Investing. The S&P 500 was selling off this morning. Now we're getting a little bid to the upside. What I'm watching in the charts is a gap that may be filled, and if it does, this should be your first level of rejection. I'm also monitoring an upsloping trendline that if the S&P 500 does break this gap in the charts on the way up, this would be another resistance level on the chart of the S&P 500. I also have a couple diverse stocks that I'm going to go over with you as well. So as you [clears throat] can see up here is the are the charts that I will be going over with you. S&P 500 again had this nice fall today, and then we started getting this nice move to the upside. So $715.21 is that first level of resistance on the charts of the S&P 500. As you can see, oil's starting to fall a little bit, and this is why the S&P 500's getting a little bit more of a bid. So 715.21 is that first level of resistance. Yesterday I'd mentioned $151.26. That's going to be your pretty solid rejection level on the chart of USO based on what happened previously in the chart of the USO. So $154 $1 and $0.26 is a previous gap in the charts, and that goes back to the highs or the the gap that was created in 2015, which means that there could be some people who are stuck. And there's may not be a lot of people, but these charts are history. They're just replaying what's happened in the past and gives you an idea of what can happen in the future. This is why I targeted that 151.26 level. Now it did hit that in the pre-market. Sorry, in the after hours. And then it actually shot up a little bit higher, but do notice the rejection that you got off of that level? So, had you taken that and held this overnight, you would be pretty significantly in the money. Not, you know, a ton, but, you know, 5% in the money on this chart of USO from this $150 level. About 4%. But this is why we like past history. This is why we like charts that go back so far. You can get a lot of information from them. Google is another chart that we've been monitoring. Here's this upsloping trendline. Previous price history. Pivot low here, pivot low here, pivot low here. This is what's what had contained price action on the chart of Google for some time until it broke that trendline. Finally broke below, got rejected. Once price action now gets back into this level at $388.26, this is the area that I'm looking to short. And this is just based on previous information that we have in the charts of Google, and that's why I do anticipate 388.36 to be a solid rejection level. Those of you who are a little bit more aggressive, you could start a trade at 380 bucks, knowing that you do have this upsloping trendline as additional resistance. You could potentially dollar cost average into the trade. Now, if we do start breaking above this upsloping trendline, your next level of psychological resistance is going to be that $400 whole round number. And not necessarily that it's going to be resistance in the traditional fashion of like it's going to be a wall, it's going to be where profit takers are likely sitting, and that's what drives the price action down, which is one of the reasons that we consider it resistance. The sellers are going to have a tough time pushing it through that level if we do get above that upsloping trendline. Let's go ahead and jump into AMD. AMD's actually moving quite nicely to the upside as well today. It I did have a shortable level on a 15-minute closing basis though yesterday. I did say you I would stop out of this trade, and it would have been a good idea to exit that trade. Knowing that I've got the key round uh whole round number of $350.32 as additional resistance today, this would be the level I would be looking to day trade this. Because we are overextended, but we've had a pullback, once price action got does get to 350, we could be cons- or start consolidating right under that level. And if that happened, the likelihood of the price continuing to pull back is starting to diminish, and then you could see a move all the way up to $375 or even as high as 400 bucks. One of the reasons that I like to dollar cost average and maneuver through trades is just for that specific reason. Just because it's a resistance level where the profit takers did step up and drove this down, doesn't necessarily mean that's going to happen again. The more often a resistance level is hit, once the profit takers are already there, that allows the buyers to then push this higher. So, after today, if $350.32 can consolidate over the next few days, maybe all day all next week, then I could potentially look at the charts and say, "Yes, it's likely going up to the $375 level." We also have to take a look at what's going on in the charts with upsloping trend lines. So, here's what I've done. Connected this pivot low here and all of this price consolidation. As you can see, this is the upsloping trend line that has basically kept the chart of AMD buoyant. So, what we're looking for is a break of this trend line, continuation move, and then we could play this for a retrace to the scene of the crime for a swing trade. So, again, today 350.32 is that level that I'm looking at as far as resistance. Nvidia had a pretty substantial fall today. It's interesting because there's news that they're going to sell 100 of their GPUs, and then all of a sudden the Nvidia chart of Nvidia decided to crash. Now, it's down 6% and that's actually a pretty big move on Nvidia. I did give my shortable level for a swing trade at 212 bucks or just above that. And that would have given you about a 6% pullback. On a chart of Nvidia, you don't really look for a 20 to 30% pullback. Can happen. However, when you're swing trading something something like this, it usually gives you a good idea of where support and resistance levels lie. And so this again, $212.19, you would have been slightly out of the money. But taking a example of what happened with AMD, here's this up sloping trend line, kept price action very buoyant. And now all of a sudden today, if we do close below this down sloping trend line or up sloping trend line, doesn't necessarily mean that we're out of the woods for the um for the continued fall. Could just mean that we're getting into the support level at $149 or $194.92. So for me, this is actually where I'm looking to pick up a day trade. 194.92. It's right below this $195 level and I would be waiting for a 195 pierce. And that's why I'd be interested in going long at 194.92. This is a prior gap in the charts, but I like this area of support a little bit better. And if we can pierce a whole round number, it's even more solid of or more of a likelihood that it will get a bounce. So, if you took this trade, you could look to exit even if you got out at $201, at least half of your position. And then all of a sudden, it confirms below and hits this long level at 194.92. That could be a potential continuation move to the downside. Again, doesn't guarantee that it's going to continue to flush. What likely happen is price action then would retrace all the way back up to this $212 level or even up to this up sloping trend line, re-tag it, and then you could see a more substantial fall. Okay? So, that's how I'd play Nvidia. Amazon had this nice bid to the upside when the price action or the earnings report came out. So, I had a couple trend lines on Amazon, pivot top here, secondary hit, third hit here. I actually thought this was the first level of resistance. I didn't think we were going to make it through the double top. As you can see, if I zoom into the charts, we did get a little bit of a rejection, not a big rejection, but a little rejection. This is why I always like to have multiple resistance levels on the way up if price action does decide to accelerate. And then all of a sudden, it ended up hitting the upper end of the parallel channel, tagged this trend line, and then we had this huge sell-off. Look at that. Got close to the $275 level. And I had mentioned psychological levels. Sometimes it gets close, sometimes it pierces, but that is really the the range. And then we had this 6% fall to the downside. What we're looking at for the bears, if we can recapture $258.79 or $0.74 to the downside, then that gives way for a potential move all the way to the midline of this parallel channel, which would be right about 237 bucks. And that's actually a pretty substantial fall for the chart of Nvidia or AMD. Sorry, Amazon. Anyway, that is the level of support that I'd be looking for. And depending on when it hits, if it gets here at $239.76, that would also align with this gap in the charts that still needs to be filled. So, that would be a great opportunity to enter a day trade on AMZN. Microsoft is another chart. One of the reasons that we stay away from earnings I've had people ask, >> [clears throat] >> "Okay, Microsoft is putting in a nice bull flag. It's broken this down sloping trend line. It's getting into earnings. Should I go long on earnings?" Well, had you gone long on earnings on Google when it was at all-time highs, it would have paid off. Amazon, same thing. Microsoft at the lows, now that's a different story because we got a sell-off, even though usually when stocks are at the lows or lower end of the charts putting in bull flags, you can expect more of a bounce. And when stocks are at their highs, you can expect a pullback. However, the opposite things happened in these cases, which is why I don't go into a stock on earnings. I wait for the price action to play out before I decide to take a swing or even a Well, a swing trade. Day trades are different because the support support and resistance levels, once they get tagged, they usually give you at least an intraday bounce, and that's what we look for. So, now, here's the chart of Microsoft. Got this down sloping trend line. Pivot top here, secondary hit here, third hit here, finally broke above. We confirmed above. However, earnings happened. We closed below $413 or we got below $413.58. And now we're having this continued move to the downside. For me, day trade, $393.11. That is where I'm looking to pick this up for a day trade. Because we're down below this down sloping trend line again, the level of support for a swing trade, I would have to wait till it plays out, would be $366.82. So, what I would be looking for is it to break this level, not today. I would expect a bounce off this level today. Then get into this gap fill, get a little bit of a bounce, and then head all the way down to $366.82. That's the area that I would start inching into a a swing trade. Knowing that I've got additional support at $344.70. You've got this major pivot right here that once price action does get into this based on previous price action, you are likely to get a bounce and that would be a good ad level or if you're conservative, you'd wait for that $344.70 level. Last but not least, WDC had a topping tail. I did ask you to go over the Bloom Energy chart, see what the topping tail looked like and then go back to the WDC chart. If it did make a topping tail, this is how you'd play it. Does have earnings after the bell, so it got does come with a lot more risk, which is why this would be more of a day trade than a swing trade. So, let's jump into the chart of WDC. Here's what we're looking for. Price action at the highs of the chart. What we'd want is to take this fib extension tool, take the pivot high, anchor that, pivot low, anchor that and then zoom in on the charts. What we need, if you saw yesterday's video, is price action or the the wick to be in the upper 50%. And as you can see, the body of the candle started below 50%, which clearly signifies that this is a topping tail or at least this wick is large enough to be considered a topping tail. Next thing we do need to do is check the volume. 10 million shares, yes, really high volume. Also, what happened with the closing price? Is it in the lower 25%? And as you can see, $418.04 is that lower 25% because we closed at 200 or $412.82. So, this is effectively a topping tail. How you'd play this today is you would wait for the 786 Fibonacci retracement because this is a day trade. So, for $435.15 is your first level of resistance. Now, if you're a little bit more conservative, $438.55 is that less aggressive level, knowing that on a 15-minute closing basis, and I know this is a daily topping tail, but $441.99, if price action does get above that on a day on a 15-minute closing basis and closes, then I would look to stop out of the trade. So, that's how I would play the topping tail today. And again, earnings are coming out. STX um and Qualcomm and all these other chip manufacturers. I know this is in the memory stocks, but STX is a memory play. Um and they had good earnings and they had these huge moves to the upside. So, uh I would not be in this trade long or short going into earnings. If it doesn't play out within the day, right before the earnings or be before the closing bell, this is a trade that I would actually exit and wait and see what happens in the next couple days. Because it's above $400 on a day trade basis after hours, I would actually look to pick this up and short this if it does jump above 500 bucks. That would be an extended move to the upside after this already overly extended move, and so that's where I'd start inching in, knowing I've got additional resistance levels at above 500 bucks, 525, 550. But, I really don't think it's going to go much higher than $500. But, just because I don't think it's going to, stocks have surprised me in the past. Just like in Actually, let's go back into Intel. I had uh somebody ask me about Intel. And so, let's go ahead and just jump into that chart real quick. I know I was about done, but Intel is an interesting story. This also had really, really good news. This move on Intel didn't wasn't on the back of earnings. It just had this huge surge to the upside. All of a sudden, we got close in the post market. We turn on regular trading hour or extended trading hours. Zoom out a little bit. It got up as high as $99.03 and then from that level, look at this pullback. Had a 7.5% move to the downside. Doesn't necessarily mean that this is over, but now that we're marching back up at 95 bucks, it could want to get above that $100 whole round number. So, that is where I'd look to add to my position if I were in this at a pierce of $100. That's going to be a lot of people who are waiting for that $100 whole round number pierce and then there should be a ton of profit takers and drive this down. If you're a little bit more conservative, I would wait for a break with confirmation above 100 and then you could always exit the trade. Eventually, I would love to see Intel back to $54.73. This move from the lows right here is a 136% move to the upside. That is overly extended and that's just in this short amount of time. That's just from the lows of the 30th of March 2026. So, just over a month and it had this huge move. So, that's what I have for you guys. Thank you so much. 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