My Trading Game Plan | August 6, 2026

AI Summary

Transcript

[music]
>> My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. [music]
This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com
and of course we'll dive into the
charts. We're looking at a Nasdaq that
is down sharply on the back of tech
earnings. So SanDisk and WDC, which is
Western Digital, both companies falling
sharply on earnings that didn't quite
meet the bar of where forecasts or
expectations were. Now overall do they
show great growth? Absolutely. But
remember these stocks are up massively
from just 6 months or a year ago even
after their recent connect correction.
So again, that is causing some concern
in the AI space. Names like Micron are
falling, SK Hynix falling as well as
others as again it looks to be more of a
slowdown in the growth rate that we've
been seeing. Now other names out there
seeing some drawdowns, DataDog, Celsius
Holdings we're seeing as well, APP,
which is AppLovin, also collapsing on
earnings. So really if you look at the
earnings picture today, it's not a great
picture for the markets. I am noticing
that the Nasdaq is seeing heavy selling.
The S&P is basically around the flat
line and the Dow is up just a little
bit. Now why might that be? Well, the
Dow is looked at as more of a defensive
plays. It has names like Apple in there.
It has names like Home Depot for
instance. Other names that again are not
so connected to the AI trade. All right,
let's dive right in. Let's take a look.
This is the S&P futures. You can see
that for the most part, the S&P futures
had a pretty nasty sell-off yesterday,
not as bad as the tech sector, but in
the overnight, it was more of just a
sideways chop, kind of trading in the
lower range here going into the stock
market's opening, right? So again, we
are hovering slightly down on the S&P
futures into the open. Now, flipping
over to the daily chart of the S&P,
notice that we came right up underneath
that next key resistance level that I
pointed out in yesterday's show. We
talked about that as being a potential
rejection point for the S&P 500. We
ended up pulling back, closing down
about 0.17%
yesterday, but starting the day slightly
weaker today. Any sort of pullback, we
discussed this yesterday, this now
becomes a key technical support for the
market. It would have to fight through
that to retest this lower support zone
on the S&P at around 7375.
All right, looking at the Nasdaq, we
talked about the Nasdaq 100 here. Taking
a look at this, we can see that again,
we are lower. Yesterday, the Nasdaq was
down 9/10 of a percent, and it is
falling today. If we look at the
10-minute chart, you can see again, the
continued grind lower from yesterday.
Now, that's inverse, or not inverse, but
essentially different from the S&P,
which has gone sideways, right? The
Nasdaq has decidedly ground lower in the
early session going into the opening
bell today.
All right, so again, the big story of
the day, we're seeing the chip stocks
under a lot of pressure, and again,
that's led by WDC and SanDisk. And then
on the other side, we have oil, which is
not doing much. Gold had a big breakout
yesterday, is pausing today. Silver
pushed up sharply into key resistance,
and is pulling back a little bit today
as well. And let's start out by looking
at the 10-year yield. Remember, yields
generally are an inverse factor to the
market. So, today we're seeing yields
going up a little bit, the market is
down a little bit, and again, yields
remaining above 4.6% on the 10-year.
Now, one thing I think that is
interesting is that we got jobless
claims today. Jobless claims are people
filing for unemployment. We get this
number every week, so it's a weekly data
point. And it showed pretty much in line
with expectations, 199,000 filers for
unemployment in the last week. That is
historically a very low number. As I've
always said, anything around 200,000 is
a very good number for jobless claims.
250,000-ish,
give or take, is a warning. And then if
you get above 300,000 filings per week,
that's usually signaling recession.
Right now, we're in the all-clear for
the labor market. We saw this with the
Challenger jobs cuts numbers, as well.
Job cuts are very, very minimal out
there. Now, hiring, there's not a ton of
hiring going on, uh but for the most
part, the labor market remains in decent
shape. And even in spite of that, what
I've noticed is that the odds of a Fed
rate cut or raise, this is the key. What
are the odds in September that the Fed
was going to raise rates? Well, going
into the last meeting from the Fed, it
was sky-high. After Kevin Walsh kind of
talked a tough game, but then didn't
give any details, it fell a little bit.
We're now seeing it with oil coming in,
we're only a little bit above 50% chance
of a Fed rate cut uh hike in September.
So, just a little kind of key key little
data point there that is interesting.
All right, let's jump into some of these
earnings. Look at this chart. This is a
nasty decline on WDC. We are seeing it
trade down sharply in the pre-market.
Yesterday closing around 520, today
trading at 440. Now, this one will be on
my radar for a day trade today because
of its dramatic drop. If we look at the
charts,
we can see that again, here's where it's
trading. I'll be eyeing this as a day
trade around 420, which is this pivot
low right here. So, you can see it right
there. That low, which goes back to July
28th, that would be in technical terms a
double bottom. Now, again, would I be
buying that and holding that for days?
Nope, not even close. Only a day trade
for me because honestly, I think these
things are going to go lower. All right,
there's a huge unwind after this recent
bounce that still needs to take place.
And where am I looking for a potential
swing trade? Well, you can see it right
here, folks, on the chart already
annotated out. You have your pivot highs
here, going back to February of this
year. Pivot highs here in March. Then we
had a gap up and a breakout. It started
the big cataclysmic run.
The idea is that eventually price will
find its way back to that level. You
also have this confirming descending
trend line that merges right around 300
to 305. So, when we talk about day
trades versus swing trades, if you don't
know what those are, day trades you're
in and out the same day. Often times in
minutes, sometimes even in seconds.
They're quick little hits at key
technical levels on an intraday basis.
Swing trades, which is what I do more on
a longer term basis, to me that's long
term. Even though most people long term
investing is much different. But for me,
it's holding something for days, weeks,
or months. But generally, I don't hold
any positions except for something like
gold as a longer term multi-year decade
hold, right? That's where I really look
at. I look at things that are
structurally broken in the system to get
me in trades that I'll be holding for
the long term, more like an insurance
policy than anything else. All right, so
WDC, we know the day trade level is
right around 420.
The swing trade level for me is around
300 to 305. SanDisk, another nasty
decline on earnings. Look at this drop
here. So, SanDisk is collapsing, mammoth
mammoth decline, trading near the lows
from yesterday's after hours to this
morning. As you can see, it's moving
lower here. Daily chart, I do have this
trend line, which I might eye as a day
trade um as it comes in, but one of the
key metrics of the methodology that I
teach in the winning trader series is
that you have to monitor how many times
you've hit a trend line. All right, once
I get to essentially the fourth or fifth
hit, I become very nervous. So, the
fourth hit can be played 1 2 3 4, and
that's including your initial starting
point. But, once we come down to a fifth
hit, it's usually a tiny bounce and then
a potential breakdown. So, right now
we're trading at $1,200 per share on
SanDisk. Day trading wise, if you're
really aggressive, I would say this area
right here. You can see these pivot lows
right here and here. That aligns around
1125. So, a day trade around 1125. On a
swing basis, I'm most likely looking at
a far lower move, probably 775
this pivot high right here. That would
be my big swing trade level. Okay? So,
going into that, and it gives us kind of
a general synopsis of where the memory
storage plays are. STX is getting hit,
Micron's getting hit. Pretty much almost
anything related to chips is getting
hit. What we're seeing holding up better
is more of the defensive chip names.
Now, what's a defensive chip name? That
would be something like an Nvidia.
Nvidia is actually up today.
So, again,
think about this. You had the high
flyers, which markets were pricing in
massive growth that would never end. And
I warned about this. Listen, I got
attacked for it so much. Like, you know,
all Micron can keep going up. It can go
to 2,000. I mean, heck, you had analysts
that were upgrading these things to
crazy price targets. SanDisk 3,000 price
target. I think I even saw $3,600 price
target. I alerted that when you see
analysts becoming emotional,
it tells you that it's the extreme of a
top in a bubble. And now you're seeing
the results. In fact, when I see the
crazy analyst upgrades, I actually use
it as an inverse indicator to tell me
that, okay, this is now borderline
popping once you get the analyst to do
this type of thing. And we saw it on
Micron. We saw it on all these. Every
day I would wake up and it'll be like,
oh, this firm upgraded this to a crazy
price target. Right? I mean, that was
basically case in point, you know, June,
May and June. Um the the the the crux of
it. All right. In any case, the idea
here is that Nvidia is actually trading
at a relatively low PE. I mean, around
20 or so. And so, that is looked at now
like Apple as a defensive play. Money is
coming out from these crazy high flyers
where the growth was said to be hundreds
of percent every year forever, which
obviously isn't going to happen. Now
it's going into the safe haven names
like Nvidia. All right. Other names
moving today, we have Celsius getting
crushed today. Uh their earnings were
not good, folks. Not good at all. Their
guidance was weak as well. That stock is
trading down. If we look at the
intraday, you can see it has bounced off
of its initial flush low. But the only
level I have on this is basically 2275.
If we look at the chart, gap fill,
double bottom, and then you have this
descending trend line merging right
here. So, if it did come into 2275 or
below, I'd be interested. I even might
even consider that for a swing trade as
it is getting into major multi-factor
supports right there. But, that's kind
of the level that I'm eyeing on that.
Data Dog, guys, getting absolutely
clobbered, although bouncing off the
lows as well. And here we have this
stock again falling sharply. Now, the
difference between Celsius and this or
even WDC is that Data Dog was at highs
coming into the print on earnings. And
so, it is falling. Um the key levels for
day trading, there's a gap fill on Data
Dog right here at around 221. So, that
would be my first day tradeable level.
And then on a swing trade basis, this
pivot high does stand out. The only
concern I have is that this big gap
still exists. In technical analysis, one
of the key metrics is that gaps are made
to be filled. Now, you don't know when
they're going to be filled, but when
there's a huge gap in a chart and I'm
buying above it, I'm always a little bit
nervous about, "Oh my goodness, that gap
exists. How long until it gets filled?
Do I have time for this trade? Do I have
time for the swing trade and get money
out of it on the long side before it
fills the gap?" Now, I think on Data
Dog, I do at that former pivot, but I
don't want to buy it and say, "I'll just
tuck this away long-term." Because at
some point in my humble opinion,
these gaps get filled. And on Data Dog,
that would be a move all the way down to
this 145, 146 level. All right. AppLovin
is getting hammered as well. Huge drop
yesterday getting a bounce. The key
level on this, and it actually hit it in
the in the after hours yesterday. See
this gap? We just talked about how gaps
get filled. Here's a close, here's an
open creating a gap, and guess what? It
filled already in the pre-market, and
that would be my day tradeable level for
today at about 300. Now, there's a few
other minor gaps. There's a gap down
here as well. So, same kind of thing. I
think I would only play this as a day
trade, not as a swing trade. I think
it's also important to note that you
have a bigger head and shoulders pattern
on this chart. Head and shoulders
patterns are bearish formations and you
can see right here, right? There's a
huge head and shoulders and that is
absolutely it's already triggered
basically and is now continuing its
merry way down. So at some point there's
even a gap back here at 171.
That my friends, if you're asking me
where I would swing trade this, actually
buy it and hold it for a period of time,
that's my level right there. That is a
beautiful level on Apple 11 if it gets
down there in the coming months. So I'm
going to keep that on my radar as a
potential swing trade. Fantastic level.
All right. We're going to switch gears
now going into the gold and silver
trades. What's going on there? Let's
take a look. We know gold yesterday
broke out to the upside in dramatic
fashion. Today we are seeing a little
bit of a pullback. This is not unusual.
If you compare this to the 1980 cycle
high, we broke out of a very similar
wedge and then price ended up trickling
back down here before it started to have
its next big move up. So again, doesn't
mean that this cycle has to match that
cycle. There are differences obviously
and Volker being the big difference, but
I do want to just point out that when
you break out of these wedges, usually
the initial move is pretty dramatic and
then it can kind of stall out as this
kind of takes a lot of short covering,
shorts cover, some buyers jump in, but
if it doesn't kind of materialize with
continued upside, then people start to
get antsy and start to worry about it
coming back in and that can create
selling pressure. Uh silver, silver did
exactly what we talked about coming up
into resistance. It's getting rejected.
Silver still looks like a weak chart
until it can break through this $64
level. Crude oil today, again, we
continue to hear that there's some sort
of deal out of the Middle East about the
with the Strait of Hormuz. The one kind
of interesting thing is I'm hearing is
that it's not really involving the US.
It's more between parties there. And you
have to wonder is the US going to accept
it? Midterms continue to get closer and
closer. Heck, we're already in August.
You just have September, October, and
then midterms coming up. So, my guess is
there'll be
an attempt at a deal here, even if it's
not a good deal by US standards of what
they want. I'm hearing that
Iran may even be able to charge fees to
go through. But again, the question is
politically how much will does the
president have to push back on it this
close to the midterms? And that's going
to be something very intriguing to watch
from a geopolitical standpoint. Either
way, oil is up fractionally today.
Nothing going on on the oil trade for
me. I am just sitting on the sidelines
at this point. And then natural gas just
continues to kind of slowly grind lower
with my eye still on this 257 level
longer-term trend line right here.
That's the level that I am focused in as
a major jump point for a strong rally
higher. Lastly, Bitcoin. Remember,
Bitcoin was attempting a breakout
yesterday. It did close above, but
remember we need to see confirmation of
a breakout. Today so far, we're not
getting that with Bitcoin trading back
close to 64,000. So, the high from
yesterday and today was close to 65.
It's back below 64,200.
What you're watching here is you want to
see the price of Bitcoin hold the line.
It needs to hold this 64-ish thousand
level to have a shot at confirmation.
Now, if it doesn't, it doesn't mean that
it can't break out. It just means that
it has to do the work again to get back
through the level. And then it has to
confirm. So, it's much easier for price
if it can just confirm sooner than
later. But that is something that I'm
still monitoring. All right, lots going
on in the market, guys. It is Thursday,
so we'll keep an eye on overall how the
markets are doing tomorrow coming into
Friday. Now, we'll see again with the
jobs data. Remember, non-farm payrolls
tomorrow morning.
And as always, folks, you are rockstars
for being with me every morning. I know
so many of you are having your coffee
right now and watching or just enjoying,
and it really means a lot to me. I want
to say that that I become a staple. Um
it's one of the reasons why I try my
hardest to always bring alpha
information, education, knowledge, and
potential trade setups to every single
game plan just like everyone here at
Verified Investing. So, thank you guys
for your support. I much or greatly
appreciate it. You guys go have a
wonderful rest of your day. I'll see you
tomorrow. Take care.