S&P 500 Sell-Off & Oil Surge: Key Levels for AMD, NVDA, and Semiconductors

[music] >> Each afternoon, real setups are broken down with entry strategies and the technical [music] reasoning behind every trade. This is today's best trade setups with Verified Investing. Welcome to today's best trade setups. My name is Benjamin Pool, head trader here at verifiedinvesting.com. What we have is the S&P 500 selling off a little bit with the price of US oil heading higher. I have some key support and resistance levels for those two particular charts, and I'm going to have I have a lot of other charts that I'm going to go over with you as as well. First one we're going to go over though is the S&P 500. So, here's the SPY. What I have right now is this support level at $697.20. For me, this is where the support level is on the S&P 500. So, this is where support price action needs to get to. Now, that is a pretty substantial drop to the downside. That would be a $12 12-point move on the S&P 500. Those of you who are a little bit more aggressive do have this gap in the charts sitting at $708.42. And then for those of you a little bit more conservative and not waiting for my level, here is your next level support on the S&P 500 at 701.75. For me, my long level today is $697.20. US oil, like I mentioned, is heading higher as the S&P 500 starts to sell off. $142.30 is where it got to in the pre-market. So, this Now that we've had the substantial pullback, this is going to be a strong resistance level if we can get another search to the upside or another push. What I would also be looking to do is dollar cost average all the way up to $143.98. This is where you It's getting really interesting. If it does close above this on a 15-minute closing basis, I would look to stop out of the trade. However, look at how extended to the upside it is. It was $110. And then we had over the last 8 days this huge surge up. This was a 28% move on the price action of US oil. This means that it's getting overly extended and it's due for a pretty significant pullback. Oracle, I have a good level. Right now, I Oracle was starting to drop a little bit in the pre-market. It got down below 160 bucks. Now it's trading at $166.43. Couple different levels. I have a short level if we can get another surge to the upside at $172.96. On the long play, if we can break below this gap in the charts sitting at 163 bucks, I'm looking to go long at $155.59. Those of you who are a little bit more aggressive, you'll turn on the pre-market trading. And this is about where the price action got up to. After this move to the upside, you're going to get some support around $158.75. So, if you're a little bit more aggressive, that's the level to look for. I'm eyeing this 155.59 level in the trading day if we can get there by 3:00. AMD's having this nice sell-off. I like to talk about key psychological levels. $350 was a key psychological level. And I was mentioning not only did it break that up something trend line and had this nice surge to the upside, we have to identify where the next level of resistance is if we've already broken out of all-time highs. Now, AMD for me was a pierce of 350. Now we're getting a pretty substantial pullback. And so I do have a long level at $305 and $33.00 if we can drop a little bit more on the chart of AMD. 305 33 is at first gap in the charts that you could look to go long. The other place you can go long is zoom out in the charts. Pivot top here, secondary pivot here. If we can come back in, pierce $286.88. For those of you who are a little bit more conservative, even in the next few days, this is your long level on AMD. Now that we've kind of put in a top on AMD, or at least it looks like it it's putting in a top right now, you could wait for this gap fill in the charts right here at $334.21 to reenter a short, and this would be a day trade short, knowing that you've got additional resistance at $350.32. What I'm looking for is price action to get below this up sloping trend line. Once it does that, it would have recaptured that up sloping trend line to the downside, and then you're going to see a move all the way back down to about $258. That's a gap gap in the charts, as well as all this price consolidation. So, I see AMD coming all the way back into here. One of the reasons that dollar cost averaging is so important, and that's why we do that here, you would have been as much as 20% out of the money. If you would have added at the 10% and then at the 20% mark, you would have been your average price would be right here at about $320. So, this gives you an option to remove part of your position off of the table, and not only getting bringing your average price up, but now you've reduced your risk on the chart of AMD, and then you can wait for a bigger fall. Not only that, but if you've already reduced your position size, then you could actually wait for another push all the way back up to about 350 bucks and add back to the position. So, it's all about the maneuverability that dollar cost averaging gives you if you do it successfully. Eli Lilly, I'm still eyeing this um previous red bar candle high at $858.13 for a day trade if we can drop a little bit more today. Nvidia, I was mentioning day trade versus a swing trade. One of the reasons that I mentioned that this would be a swing trade level at $212.19 is the amount of money that I'm pushing or putting into it. If you would have gotten in for to this on a day trade, you would have been significantly out of money out of the money and you would have had to dollar cost average in. And I know it doesn't seem like a lot, but when you're using a million dollars, that's a $20,000 decrease in your portfolio if you got into this for a day trade and you stopped out at the end of the day. On a swing trade basis, we're starting with a much smaller position of our portfolio. That's why this was okay for a swing trade because of the percentage of the portfolio. What I'm looking for on Nvidia, $206.88 is the price that we need to break below. You're going to have additional support at 203 and then 20103. Once we can break this up selling trend line, as you can see, first hit, second hit, third hit, kissed it here, and now we get into a pullback. If we can break this up selling trend line, which the probabilities based on the amount of hits it's had, dictate that we should break this level, that would be reducing or getting below this basically the shelf where all this price consolidation happened, and then you're coming all the way back into about $185 on the chart of Nvidia. AVGO, again, nice up selling trend line. We broke it yesterday. Finally, if we close below this low pivot right here, we'll confirm below this chart on AVGO. Couple different ways you can play it. You have this previous pivot top right here at $406.37. That could be your first entry point, a little bit more conservative. If we head back up to $418.6, that would be a little bit more conservative. And then on a technical basis, you could wait for a retrace at the scene of the crime, pick this up as a short at $430.75. Again, another reason that dollar cost averaging into the positions is really beneficial. On a day trade basis, $389.88 is that long level for a day trade. This is just a opening price of this green bar candle before this nice move to the upside. Now, if it does break below that on a 15-minute closing basis, I would consider stopping out. Unless, of course, you feel like dollar cost averaging every 3 and 1/2 to 4 dollars into this gap in the charts at $380.76. For me, this is my long play today on a day trade. Maybe tomorrow, but we'll have to see how price opens up when the markets open tomorrow. Spotify, I do have a gap in the charts sitting at $414.84 that I'm still eyeing with an additional add or a couple different adds all the way down to 40506. If it does close below that on a 15-minute closing basis, I would stop out of the trade. TXN, TXN didn't get up to the $300 level. I was mentioning, though, the $260 level would be my first entry price. And again, if you dollar cost average correctly and you added every 10%, you would be in the money. You would have been able to take half of it off the table, wait for a break below $275, and then your support level is going to be $260. Similar with the price action of AMD, if we get below this up-sloping trend line, recapture it to the downside, the bears will then take over and send this all the way down into $231.27. You will have this gap right here, just above it, about 235 as support, secondary gap here, but really, this is where I think that the price action of TXN will go to, if not even lower. But again, that would be my first level of support. As you can see, this was a pivot top here, and then all of this support in this area before the surge to the upside. Dell is coming back in nicely. I did have the midline of the parallel channel as resistance. And I mentioned originally $210.28 was the entry point for a swing trade short. Did get above that level. We're about 5% of the money, knowing that I could dollar cost average to the upper end of the parallel channel. Now that we're below this, we are waiting for price action to get back to the lower end of the parallel channel, and then we have to watch to see what price action does. If it consolidates on the lower end of this parallel channel, then I'm anticipating a nice fall all the way back down to $169.92. This chart is overextended. It's due for a major pullback. And again, that's where I see price action heading. We'll have to monitor it. If this says consolidates um right on top of this support level at the lower end of the parallel channel, that is when you can start anticipating a bigger move to the downside. You are going to have some support at 177.35, but we'll readdress this as the trade progresses. Uh STX, I was mentioning also $600. Key psychological levels. Whole round number of 600 bucks was going to be your shortable level, knowing that you have key resistance levels above it as far as psychological levels. So then um your entry point was a pierce of that $600 on a day on a swing trade basis. And again, we could have all the always dollar cost averaged every 10% higher or or um every 10% higher, knowing the next resistance is at 625 and then 650. Now we're having a pretty substantial pullback in STX. And so had you taken that $600 level, you would be in the money right now. What I would recommend is taking a little bit off of the table, reducing your position size, and waiting for another push to the upside if it happens. The nice thing about reducing your position size is it allows you to maneuver in this trade while also capitalizing on additional pullbacks if that happens. So we do have some support coming up on STX and that's this up something trend line. I'm going to show you where this comes from. STX you have this pivot top here. Secondary pivot. Third hit, price got above, retraced to the scene of the crime before this extended move to the upside above 600 bucks and this will be your support level. At about $541.30. So you could be a little bit more patient and then take half of it off the table here or third of it off the table. Really depends on your strategy. This is the level that I anticipate STX coming down to now that we broken this up something trend line $468.85. For a day trade, if we can get another search the upside, $595.86 is this gap in the charts and it's a retrace to this broken down something trend line. So this is my entry point on STX for a short. I don't have any entry prices for a long play because we're so excel extended in the charts that I'm going to be a little bit more patient. SMH, similar thing. We pierced 500 bucks. One thing that I really love to see is these long-term up something trend lines. Here's a pivot low that goes back to the 25th of May or the 14th of May 2025. Look at all this price consolidation underneath this up something trend line. Look at the separation. So your last hit was October 2025. Once price action gets above that, the bulls get on board and bid this to the upside, slightly closes above and this is signals to a lot of people, okay, now we broken an up something trend line. See what's happened with AMD, see what's happened with STX. Now we're all of a sudden we're going to jump on board or signal that the it's now a bullish market and then we get this pullback. From the highs at 508. This is about a 5% pullback. Not a huge pullback, but still a decent pullback enough to take some profits or at least a little bit, or you could wait for another downside move to about $464 and $0.66. This is your gap in the charts. Once that level flushes, as you can see, there's not a ton of price action above that. Lower volume, which means that it indicates that price action should come in to $423.41. This should be the start of a bigger move to the downside on the semiconductors. ARM is another great example of why we don't buy breakouts. If you would have bought on the breakout of $187.34, where do you take your profits? If you take your profits at 24%, awesome. That's great. I just don't have any levels that I would be interested in chasing this too. Yeah, you could have played out to this measured move of this inverse head and shoulders pattern to about $275.15, but for me, that's too aggressive. I actually like for price action to come back into a level before I go long. So, my long level would be a retrace of the scene of the crime, which is $187.34. So, for me, that is my long level for a day trade. If it does flush that level on a 15-minute closing basis, I would stop out and look for 175.49. As you can see, there's a gap in the charts on ARM, and that is where I go long for my second time on ARM if we can get a flush out today. This is really bringing the semiconductors down, and that's why the SOXS is ripping, and the SOXL is fading significantly. SanDisk, overextended to the upside. This is the logarithmic chart. I was mentioning that this is a great opportunity for a short trade. Knowing that, I have additional resistance above at a hundred or $1,351.98. Once we can get into the trade right here, even if we have to dollar cost average. With this overextended move, we are due for a pullback, even if that takes a little bit of time, at least we can dollar cost average maneuver through the trade and take advantage of this overextended move instead of chasing it up. We want to get to where psychological levels are to ride this thing down. Because like SanDisk's done in the past, we can drop 25, 30, or even 40% in a matter of a couple days. And so I would rather be on the other side where I'm shorting it or taking advantage of the the greed in the market. Once that subsides, the fear really takes over and that's how you get these big pullbacks. So, that's what I have for you guys. Thank you so much for watching. Please make sure you're liking, you're following, subscribing, and sharing with those friends so that way they can get the same market information. Now I'm going to go ahead and go on to the Verified Investing Extras. Go ahead and scan that QR code. If you guys want additional charts on a daily basis covering commodities, stocks, uh market movers, and also crypto. So, that's another opportunity for you guys to get additional charts by all of us pro traders in this office. And then last but not least, the Apex Live Day Trading Room is a great environment. If you guys are interested in learning how we trade on a daily basis for day trades, scan that QR code, get signed up. We'd love to have you there so you can make profits alongside of us. So, that's what I have for you guys. We'll see you guys next time in the charts. Take care. Yeah. >> [music]