BIGGEST RED DAY OF 2026

AI Summary

Transcript

What's up everybody? All right. Well,
today is a red day recap. It is the
biggest red day of the year for me in my
Roth IRA and I'm feeling pretty
discouraged. I'm bummed out. For those
of you guys who are beginner traders,
intermediate, even those who have been
doing it for a while, I want you to know
that the feeling of red days, it always
feels bad. And probably the biggest
difference that separates where you're
at today and where I'm at today is that
I I still have red days. Some of them
are pretty big, but I've been able to
space out how frequently they happen. So
that in between these big red days, I'm
net profitable. So earlier in my career,
I would have three weeks where I'd make
money and then, you know, on that fourth
week, in one day, I'd give it all back.
So, it was three steps forward, you
know, one huge step back. And I was
break I wasn't making progress. I mean,
I'd be breaking even or losing money.
And I did an interview a couple years
ago with one of my students who'd made
his first million dollars trading. And
he told me that I well, I asked him if
he had a turning point, you know, where
all of a sudden things just clicked and,
you know, like what could what could
students learn or members at Warrior
Trading learn from you? Was there a
moment where everything clicked and they
could just try to experience that for
themselves? and he said, 'N no, I wish,
but it wasn't really like that. Um, he
said his journey from losing money to
being kind of break even and profitable
was just like it was so gradual. Um, it
was just he said it was about sucking a
little bit less. Uh, and he's he's like,
I'm still suck, you know, but I just
suck a little bit less than I did like,
you know, a few years ago and that's all
the difference. So today I suck. You
know, this this is stupid. I'm down. Um,
I'll put give you the P&L. $73,000 in
one day. It's dumb. Uh, could have
bought like, you know, 73 used Subarus
for that kind of money. I'd be like a
millionaire. That's like that. I'd be
like the richest guy in New Hampshire
with that kind of, you know, metal in my
driveway. So, I feel stupid. I'm
frustrated. Um, but you know, look, I
think if we
look at all the big red days I've had
this year, we can attribute them
generally to FOMO, the fear of missing
out. And today was not really an
exception to that. It's funny because
you would think, what's there to feel
FOMO about? You've had a great week. And
if you've been tuning into my daily
recaps, you you would know that I'm up I
was up this morning about $100,000 on
the week. That's a huge week. I mean,
you know, arguably one of the better
weeks of the year. Um, and then, you
know, to have a day like today, like,
why did you have FOMO? You were already
doing so well. And the reason that I had
FOMO this week was because I knew that I
was not fully capitalizing on the
opportunities that I could have bought
bigger positions. I could have held
positions longer. And a lot of the
stocks I traded went a lot higher after
I got out. And it left me feeling like I
didn't do a good enough job. And so it
was a not as much of a fear of missing
out, but a regret that I missed out. And
then a fear that I'm going to miss the
next one. So then I overcompensate with
the next ones, but then you know, for
whatever reason, and maybe we can
attribute some of that to some things
that we'll talk about during the recap,
today just they they weren't as clean as
they were earlier in the week. Does that
mean today is the end of the hot streak?
and you know, we're back to scraping the
bottom of the barrel on Monday. I don't
think so. I think that there's a lot of
traders who probably are nicely in the
green today. The very fact that I'm red
on four out of four stocks to me speaks
more to an issue with me than with the
market because it's very rare that I'll
be read on everything that I trade.
That's pretty unusual. [snorts] So,
let's break it down. Um, and again,
context is important. So, just to set
the stage here, I am on my traveling
trading station. Um, main laptop, USB
monitor. So, working with a little bit
less than my typical setup that I would
have at home. Um, that did create an
issue today in a couple different ways,
which we'll talk about as we get into
the recap. Um, also context, the market
has been really hot. So, for the last 30
days, I've been averaging uh $20,000 per
day. So, solid daily average, 71%
accuracy, decent profit loss ratio. Have
had some few losses. Today was the
biggest one by far. Um, with the $52,000
loss on DSY in one trade, which was
stupid, but um, you know, it this is
where I'm at. So, today I gave back uh
75% or whatever roughly of what I made
this week, but I'm still finishing the
week in the green. Okay, that's a little
bit of a silver lining. Um, based on the
$20,000 daily average, I gave back about
3 and 1 half days today. So, again, not
great, but all things considered, um,
it's tolerable. So, how did today start?
Well, um, I sat down this morning at
about 6:30 and I looked at the scans and
I saw that MB um, was already up a lot.
This thing was up like 300%. And I kind
of thought,
ah, it's a, you know, it's a Chinese
Hong Kong company with no news. All
right. And it's made this big move. So,
I'm thinking traders are they're not
waiting to jump in these. They're just
um they're they're jumping in a little
bit early. And now, everyone who traded
it from, you know, 5 in the morning
until, you know, 7 has already made
their money on it. So, can I really
trade it in this area?
So,
I wasn't totally sure. Uh, it had this
really nice squeeze at like 6:00 a.m.
right here. So, this is sort of our
first big push higher uh on the one
minute chart. It dips down here. It
comes back up. It pulls back. It comes
back up right here. Um, that second
little move right there, we'll zoom in
on that a little bit more. Um, I I
bought right here. And I got in this
just with about 5,000 shares for the
break of 16. And the reason I did that
was because I thought this would curl.
Oops. Sorry. Oh, darn. I just closed
that whole window, didn't I? I'll I'll
bring it up in a second. Don't worry.
So, um, I
So, what I was looking for on that was
the breakthrough $16.38.
And my thinking was that if we broke
1638, we would go back and retest our
high a day. And so, what ended up
happening on that is I lost a dollar a
share, one whole dollar a share on my
first trade. And even though it was only
4,000 5,000 shares, I ended up losing,
as you can see here, four $4,000 on it.
So that's a kind of outsized loss, you
know, I was just like, man, that was a
little bit ridiculous. Um how quickly I
just lost four grand. And so, you know,
that sort of set the stage that today
was not going to be super clean. Uh so
that was on MB and that was right at
about 7:05
as it was starting to curl up uh right
here. So sorry. So it was right there
and I was looking for the breakthrough
1638 or 1648 and then the retest of our
high a day. So I got in and all of a
sudden it jackk knifed back down. Did
another jack knife right there. You can
see that high volume. Then it halts up
three times at the open back to 20
before selling off. It halted up here at
$19.75
and resumed at 15 bucks. That is
ridiculous. That's absolutely
ridiculous. So, this garbage. Terrible.
All right. So, I took one trade on it. I
lost. I didn't take any more trades on
it. I also took one trade on CLRO and
lost. CLRO yesterday was the stock that
I had made like $26,000 on. Um, had a
great trade yesterday on this one. uh it
pops up right at 7 am and I jumped in
and then pull back pull back pull back
rode that momentum got some awesome
trades. So this morning when it starts
squeezing up again, I thought uh that
was after hours. It went all the way up
to a high of 17, right? So, holy smokes,
this thing's holding up. It pulls back
and so then it starts to squeeze up here
in the pre-market and I jumped in this
and I got in at 15 and I added at$,550
and that was way too high. I was able to
get out of it, but I lost on that as
well. So now you know I'm red on two
stocks, CLRO and MB. And neither of them
well CLRO was absolutely chasing. That
was not a good entry. And MB, you know,
it was a curling setup, but a little bit
of a risky type of trade to take if I
don't have a cushion yet. So that was
not great. Um, but don't worry, things
turned around for a moment. Uh, and I
actually got green on the day and it was
on NI. So, Nami has pulled back now, but
this one was squeezing up in the
afterhour session uh yesterday, so
rallying higher. No trades on it.
Pre-market, it jams up and rejects back
down. Looks like pretty weak. Shorts are
probably adding. And then right here, it
squeezes through VWAP. And I added on it
right there at $7.15.
It was a fantastic entry and I sold the
whole thing at like 750.
So dumb. It goes all the way to nine. It
dips back down. I add back right here.
It pops back up. Then it dips down. And
my last trade of the day was adding
right here for the breakthrough 10.
Boom. So, I went from zero on it to up
10 grand then or up to up five grand on
it. Then to up $10,000 on it, then lost
25 grand on that candle and I'm down
$15,000
on NMI. I just kept going back. I had a
great trade and then I jumped right out
of it. Then it goes further without me,
which is exactly what I've been feeling
frustrated about. I get back in higher
and it drops.
But the stock that really killed me
today was DSY. So DSY,
NAM, first of all, so NMI had this big
move, but one issue that it did have
with it was that we had this ascending
resistance line. So, we had ascending
resistance kind of right up in here and
it ran into that level. Okay, so I did
know that that was an issue. I thought
that it would break through it right
here. I don't know why I thought that,
but I thought it would. I I was [snorts]
wrong clearly, but I thought it would.
In any case, when it first hit the
resistance level here and started
selling off on the one minute, the MACD
went negative. And so, as the MACD went
negative, I just sort of said to myself,
you know what? Um, I think this one's
going to roll over and I think momentum
is going to shift to a different stock.
DSY starts popping up. It's below VWAP
just the way NAMI was, right? NMI was
below VWAP. It breaks VWAP right here
and it rips through. SubVWAP ripping
through on the break. So DSY
starts to curl up and I'm thinking this
is the one. And for what it's worth,
some of my best trades have been this
type of setup where I buy something like
this right around the break of VWAP and
it explodes through the high. So, I've
gotten some really solid trades this
year on that setup. I would not say
that, you know, never trade that setup
again, Ross. That was like that was the
huge mistake. That wasn't the mistake.
The setup was fine. This was a good
setup. The problem was uh twofold.
Number one, the stock um yes, you'd have
this these two previous highs, okay? Um
but it also was right underneath the 200
moving average, which was at like 788.
Now, I thought it had a chance to break
through that level. Obviously, I was
wrong, but I thought that it could break
through that level. So, it did have the
200 moving average right overhead as
resistance. That created a little bit of
a challenge. So, I end up taking a trade
on this and I take a trade both in my
small account and in my big account. So,
this unbelievably
does a false breakout right here and
literally drops $2 a share from 740 down
to $5.40.
It dropped $2 a share in one candle.
Unbelievable.
And I lost $52,000.
So,
I mean, yeah. I look, I don't I don't
know. You know, I I was being too
aggressive. I was taking too much share
size. Evidently, you know, being
aggressive and taking big share size had
been paying off this week. But clearly
today, something was a little bit
different. you know, NAMI was struggling
a bit. Um, you know, a CLRO and MB,
those ones weren't working out as well.
So, it's like there was all this pent up
FOMO in the market and I was victim to
it as well. Um, you know, look at YJ.
This one, this one ends up going from $2
to 14, now back down to three. So, this
is the market we're in. And I just, you
know, I kind of was on the wrong side of
the moves today where I wasn't really
trading the front side. MB, was I
trading the front side of the move on
MB? And the front side would be during
its first it really it's like first push
higher. And so if we look at this, the
first push higher on MB. Sorry, the
chart's kind of funny. Um, was from $4
up to 1820. I was not trading the first
push higher. I was trading back here. MA
N AMI. Well, that one started after
hours yesterday. So, I was definitely
not trading the first push. Now, this
was clean. Um, but then it ran into
ascending resistance up here and I
should have just I should have held this
position longer and then not gotten back
into it. But because I sort of had FOMO
that I sold this way too soon and
anyways, so that was that was bad. And
then and and it all was on the back side
of the move and DSY was also on the back
side of the move. So today I didn't get
a chance to really trade anything on the
front side of the move. I was trading
setups that were curling. Um you know
granted yesterday CLRO
was a curling setup. Um
I didn't think this was I I sort of
thought this was the backside of the
move. You had this big move here but
then it curled. But as it went through
the new high a day it was sort of you
know became a new section of front side
move. it was making new highs. N AMI,
you could argue, was quite similar. Um,
so it's a shame that it didn't work out
better and that I lost on it. Uh, but
you know, it is what it is. Now, CLRO
today, the trade on CLRO this morning
was not this was definitely the
backside. I mean, well, look, again, if
it had broken through the high and
really pushed higher, but I knew it was
more expensive, just not not an ideal
setup. So the curl on DSY, you know,
look, I mean, that could have broken
through a new high, but for whatever
reason today, we just I kept trying to
anticipate what was going to happen and
then it wasn't quite happening. And then
if it did go higher, I was just adding
way too high. So now definitely a
challenge today was trading on my
traveling trading station. So So okay,
so we've got sort of two issues. one was
trading with a pretty high degree of
FOMO. Um, not wanting to miss moves,
chasing them. And even though I've had a
really good week today, I found myself
getting frustrated. I was frustrated
when I lost on CLRO and I was even more
frustrated when I lost on MB and I was
starting to feel like there was we were
not going to get anything to trade.
That's that's how I was feeling. So,
those trades on NMI, let's look at the
time, cuz a trade on CLRO and MB were
both at 7:00 a.m. So, I sat from 7 a.m.
7:05, whatever that was, like right
around 7 a.m. all the way to 8:35
approximately cuz when was this trade?
This was 8:20. Okay. So, I sat for like
an hour and a half almost in the red and
I wasn't really sure N AMI would work
because this big rejection candle that
we had had right here. So, I did jump in
it and I jumped out quickly because I
thought that was going to be resistance.
So, when it went all the way to 970, I
was like, gosh darn it. And then I said
to myself, you know what? So many of
these trades this week had been way
stronger than you expected and they just
kept going higher. And that's why I
justified getting back in even though it
was really high because others during
the week had kept going higher. But then
this one didn't, right? So, what's the
deal? I don't know. Well, the entries
that I took when I got back in higher
weren't really that great. I mean you
could see on the five minute but even if
you look on the one minute chart the
issue was that we kept having these
topping tails. So it was just like
topping tail topping tail topping tail
and then this rally back up. I mean it
just how do you really make sense of
that? This rally back up which was the
one that I then took another loss on. I
you know I just Yeah. I don't know. But
clearly there were sellers up around
this level. We don't know why. It could
have been the company selling, you know,
are we going to find out they did an
offering? Who knows? Maybe, maybe. We'll
never know. But it wasn't clean and I
should have stopped trading it. And I
managed to go from green $10,000 on Nami
to red 15 grand.
So now, you know, for a moment I'm green
on the day, but I'm still like, where's
the one that's really going to work? And
it just wasn't happening. And I kept
trying to push it. I kept trying to take
more trades. I wasn't giving up. I was
getting stubborn. I was getting
frustrated and then finally I got
completely smoked
and so yeah I mean th this was a day
where things really fell apart and you
know trying to trade on the traveling
trading station and trade in the small
account at the same time
that's that's something I really need to
put some thought into because what keeps
happening and this has happened a number
of times this year so I started the
small account challenge Well, I've been
doing small account challenges all year,
but um during the summer, I have this
small account challenge that I'm doing
with Think or Swim. And Think or Swim on
my computer is a bear. It uses so much
in the way of resources. Um and so what
happened to me twice today, and it's
happened many other times during these
challenges, is my computer just gets
completely jammed up. And so all of a
sudden, I've I'm just um I've got no
response. My keyboard's not responding.
I can't click on Windows. Nothing's
moving and I'm I'm jammed up. And part
of that is because I've got Lightseed on
my computer. I've got DAS on my computer
and I've got Thinker Swim because I'm
using D to execute through Thinker Swim.
But I need Think or Swim Up in case DAS
goes down. So I've got three platforms
all consuming data plus I've got, you
know, multiple charts and scanners. So
I've got Chrome, I've got Firefox, then
I've got my uh screen uh recording and
screen um share like the streaming
software. So all of that
uh is contributing to feelings of
frustration because there is nothing
more frustrating than when your computer
jams up and freezes and you're in a
trade and it's just you can't see
anything. And that happened today and it
happened on the trade on NMI and it was
a winner. I I pressed the sell button. I
had no idea what the price was and all
of a sudden I saw I was up 10 grand and
I was like whoa that was awesome but I
but at the same time I was like what's
going on in my computer? So I'm going to
have to make a decision. I've got some
more travel um coming up this year and I
have to make a decision when I travel
which account I'm going to focus on
because I cannot run all this software
on this laptop at the same time. Now
this is a nice laptop. You could
probably hear the fan running. It sounds
like a jet engine. It's a good laptop.
It's probably three or $4,000.
The problem is not the laptop. The
problem is I'm trying to run too much
high, you know, resource intensive
software on it. So,
that's a problem, you know, managing
trying, you know, when the market's
going really well, I can trade in both
accounts. I buy in both. The market
keeps going higher. I'm green in both.
It's like easy. But when things start
getting tricky, um, I'm in one and now
it's stalling out and I'm like, well, I
don't know. I'm just gonna hold that for
a second because I do think this is
still going to work. And then I add in
the other account and then they both
then it rejects and now I'm trying to
manage losses in both sides and the
computers. That's when things get pretty
bad. Now, that's a situation you might
think is very specific to me because
you're probably thinking, oh, I only use
this one platform. Um, but if you have
an older computer and it's lagging, then
every time that happens, you're probably
feeling frustrated the way I was today.
And when you start to get frustrated,
that is going to contribute to your
emotional disposition for the day and
your ability to have discipline and to
follow the rules. So, you want to try to
reduce um as much as possible the these
types of things are going to upset you
and cause you to be maybe more apt to
make mistakes and have lapses in
judgment, which happened to me today.
Um, you know, my max loss is that I
don't want to lose more than I make in
one good day, but in one trade I lost
$52,000.
And that one I mean, that's like way too
much to lose in one trade. You know what
I mean? like that just cra that's that's
that's really bad. I've had worse but
that's really bad. So um so definitely
from today I need to be um you know it
it's it's hard for me. I I really enjoy
doing these small account challenges.
They are fun but they are a challenge
and maybe not in the way that you would
expect them to be. Uh but it's just the
reality that I
you know that's just the way I'm doing
them. And if I did only the small
account challenge for the last, you
know, 30 days of trading, I would have a
lot less profit to show for it because,
you know, I can't buy 30 40,000 shares
or 50,000 shares in the small account.
Uh, you know, even including today's
loss, I'm still much better off by
trading. Oops, my video turned off.
Anyways, I'm still much better off by
trading in multiple accounts at the same
time. um when it goes well uh and and
this summer has been going well, but
days like today unfortunately happen.
And so yeah, today I'm, you know, I'm
frustrated. I'm disappointed. This is
not a good way to finish the week. Okay,
so we can recognize that FOMO is a big
contributor. Probably being on the
traveling trading station and not
sleeping super well last night were
additional contributors. I probably
shouldn't have been multi- you know dis
dispersing my attention across um you
know these different plat trading
platforms which don't help my computer
and also you know the different
accounts. Okay, so that's one fairly
easy action item for um upcoming days
and uh weeks and certainly when I'm on
my traveling trading station in um you
know the FOMO FOMO creeps up on us and
when we're in a really hot market there
is a degree of FOMO and you can harness
it to encourage you to be more
aggressive and jump it a little bit more
quickly but it's a very fine line and
today I went on the other side of it and
I I suffered some losses as a result net
end of the
end of the week, end of the month, I'm
still doing well, being more aggressive
when it's hot, but today was a setback
for sure. And so I think there are some
things that I can do to help um minimize
the likelihood of this happening as
badly in the future. And one of them is
making the decision of, you know,
certainly when I'm traveling, which
account to focus on. So for the coming
uh for what am I going to do for next
week? Uh well the small account is not
currently in a draw down.
Uh today was day 31. It's a tiny green
day. It's a little easier to jump in and
out in the small account but whatever.
So it's not in a draw down. So on the
one hand I could um I I could you could
argue that um maybe I just put the small
account on the shelf for
you know all of next week and I just
focus on my main account. I just try to
stabilize kind of and and the approach
with the main account would be I don't
think this is the end of the hot streak
today but I took a big loss I don't want
a second big loss on Monday so I have to
focus on building my cushion before I
take higher size bigger size so rather
than starting swinging out of the gates
the way I did today and have been this
past couple hot weeks I need to start
with smaller size on Monday if I can
build a cushion and we've got great
action then I can size up and I may be
able to make back the loss from today
within a couple of days and that would
be fine. But if it ends up being cooler,
it's going to take longer. So during,
you know, right now I need to focus on
just chipping away with small green
days, building confidence, and not
having repeated big red days. You could
also argue that maybe it's better just
to leave the big account on the side for
a few days. Focus on the small account
which is less emotion. It's going well.
I can't really take that much size. So
even if I lose in it, the amount that I
would lose is kind of not really as
material. Uh and that maybe is just a
good way to kind of center my emotions
for a couple days. Uh and I think that
would be I mean neither are wrong. Uh, I
don't know which one is best. Um,
I suppose the part of me that says I
should not only focus on the small
account is the part of me that still is
holding on to a little bit of that FOMO
that if you just trade in the small
account next week, you're just leaving
your big account in a draw down and that
doesn't feel good. You're making zero
progress whatsoever. I would rather take
small size and have, you know,5 or
$6,000 green days, you know, most of
next week and at least feel like I'm
moving in the right direction than to
focus on the small account and kind of
abandon the big account for a week. So,
you know, I don't know if that's a I
don't know. I have to think over the
weekend about if that feeling that I
have is based on an emotional reaction
or if I or if I feel like that's
actually a good decision. So, I'll make
a decision over the weekend. Um, and
then going into next week, I do feel
like at least in the big account, I need
a couple days where I can just
stabilize. Um, and I suppose you could
argue that I could just trade for like
half an hour and then put it on the side
and then trade in the small account for
the rest of the day, but I don't really
like doing that. I feel like I kind of
need to be I don't know, that doesn't
work super well for me. Uh so in any
event, um I have some thinking to do
over the weekend on how I'm going to
uh proceed next week. But generally
after a big red day, I size down until
I've recouped about half of the loss. So
that would be keeping my share size
smaller, about a quarter or half of my
full-size positions. So that would be
for me between 10 and 20,000 share full
size until I've recovered about half of
the draw down and then I can start to
size back up. Um it's possible I could
recover half the draw down in, you know,
one day of really good action, but it
might take longer. Ultimately,
when I'm when I'm at home, uh and I'm
well rested, I'm usually a pretty good
judge of if today's a day I should be
aggressive or if I should stay more
conservative. Uh unfortunately
it has been consistently the case that
when I'm traveling my judgment's a bit
impaired by the all the variables that
come with traveling. Uh and yet I still
would say that net at the end of the day
if you looked at all of the days I've
been on my traveling trading station I
by far have made more than I've lost.
I'm very confident in that. Now, I
haven't actually tracked all of those
days, but I've traveled so much. If I
was read consistently whenever I went
away, I would I would certainly know
about it. I've had some great I've had
some great vacations uh where I've done
really really well. I had a $60,000 week
in St. Martin a couple years ago. Um had
some phenomenal trades um on an island
vacation in 2021 or 2022.
you know, traded really well in Europe.
Um, really enjoyed the schedule there of
trading in the middle of the day when
it's really hot and then having the
evening to go out and, you know, so it's
just also true that less than ideal
internet, computer bandwidth issues can
contribute to a sense of frustration and
that can create the perfect storm. And
today it it struck. So, this is my red
day recap. It's disappointing. Uh, but,
you know, it's not going to be the last
red day of the year. Um, it's not as big
of a red day as I had in my uh the same
account last year, which was $173,000,
I think it was. So, you know,
look, this is just part of trading. And
no matter how long you stick with it,
you'll still have days like today. So,
it's important to learn how to process
them so you can come back and get back
on the horse, you know, get back in the
saddle. All right, so that's it for me.
Thank you guys for tuning in. I'll
remind you as always that trading is
risky. My results aren't typical. And
there's no guarantee you'll find success
whether you trade with me or you learn
on your own this week. Um, I still am up
$25,000. Um, it's a good week, big
picture, but uh obviously finishing here
on a bit of a sour note. So, I'll be
back at it Monday morning at 7:00 a.m.
and I hope to see you guys. Um,
certainly I'll see you in the comments
here on YouTube, but I'll also see you
in the chat room on Monday.