The Most Obvious Stock Today...

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Transcript

What's up everyone? Welcome to day 31 of
my brand new small account challenge of
growing a $2,000 account using Charles
Schwab as my broker. Today's kind of an
interesting day. Yesterday, day 30, was
the biggest green day so far during the
challenge. I grew the account by 44% in
one day. And now today is one of the
smallest green days of the challenge.
It's funny how that can happen. a huge
green day and then, you know, kind of
nothing the next day. Well, if you tune
in to my large account, my main account
recap, which I'll upload later today,
you'll see that it's actually a big red
day in my main account. And this is more
common that you have a big green day,
you get a little overconfident, and then
you give it back. And this could have
nearly been a red day in the small
account. Um, it wasn't. And I sort of
narrowly avoided that. But but in part
because I was getting really stubborn.
You rather than just cut the loss on the
trade that I did take today. I waited a
bit longer. It came back up. I thought
it was going to keep going higher and
that didn't end up working out well. I
took a loss on it in my big account. But
in the small account, as you'll see, it
it is a small green day. Now, as you
know, all of the profits uh from the
small account challenge are getting
donated to charity. And every time you
guys hit the thumbs up, I add an extra
dollar to how much I'm donating. And
we've now raised over $430,000
for charity during these small account
challenges. I've donated $425,000
to 40 children's hospitals across the
United States. We've got 10 left to
donate to. And I actually could donate
uh another $5,000 today. I just haven't
done it yet. So, I'll probably do it on
Monday. But uh in any case, this is
where we're at right now in this goal.
So, today, day 31, we came in this
morning with dispersed attention in the
market.
sort of similar to yesterday. There were
a lot of stocks moving but none of them
felt like it was completely obviously
the one and that created a challenge in
figuring out which one I should trade.
So NMI uh was the leading gainer and you
can see this big move that it had put
in. Well, the challenge with uh this was
that we had also had CLRO which put in a
really big move um uh just the other day
uh and a squeeze after hours in fact
coming into pre-market. It sort of
looked like CLRO was going to continue
higher and then we had this um rejection
right here, a pretty big one at 7 a.m.
So CLRO had looked good and then we got
this big rejection. Uh NMI this had
begun the move uh in the after hours
session. You know, it looked like it was
going to work and then it it just ended
up even though it was obvious, you know,
really heavy up around the top. Um, I
ended up trading it in my big account
and I was green on it and then I flipped
from green to red on it on one of these
dramatic topping tails where I got in
right around, you know, the break of 10
and it failed. And so anyways, I was
kind of having a hard time figuring out
what was obvious. But when NMI rolled
over, I felt that attention was
shifting. And on um the top gain or on
the running up scanner, we had DSY
squeezing up. And as it started
squeezing up, I thought, okay, this is
going to be the one. And it's a break of
VWAP curling pattern. Now, what's
interesting is that um if we actually
look at NMI, NMI was below the volume
weighted average price right here and
then ripped through to a new high of
day. And so as this started to roll
over, I thought, and this had worked uh
well yesterday, that attention would
likely shift to the second leading
gapper uh if this had broken through
VWAP. And so as it squeezed through
right here, we went all the way up to a
high of $7.80. And I was thinking we
break that level, we're breaking eight.
Now, we did have a little bit of an
issue on the daily chart, which was the
200 exponential moving average. the 200
EMA was right around, you know, 760
right here, but there if there was ever
a day that it could break that level, it
felt that today would would probably be
that day. So, in any event, um, we got
this big pop on it and, you know, I
really thought this thing was going to
rip through the high of day just the way
NAMI had and I stepped up to the plate.
So, I end up getting in it um right up
right as it's squeezing at about $7.13
right up here. [snorts] Well, as you can
see, I hit a high of 750 and then it
flushes back down here and I'm down
about 30 cents a share on it. I could
have just cut my loss. It pops back up
here to 7. It dips down. It comes back
up here and I end up getting out of it
basically for break even on 7,000
shares. So, I'm in and out and I make
$23.38,
which is nothing. I mean, whatever.
That's like a break even trade. However,
I took that setup in my big account and
in my big account, I got completely
smoked as the stock flushed because look
at what happened right after that little
uh pop. It rejected and dropped from $7
a share to five bucks. That's a $2
flush. Now, with small small share size,
it's easy to jump in, jump out. You
don't get as much slippage. You could
just, you know, bail in a position. When
you start trading with bigger share
size, it's a lot harder to do that. And
so, that was what ended up happening in
the big account, which is really
discouraging. We'll recap that
separately. You know, the small account
and the big account are always a little
bit intertwined because there's only so
many stocks each day. They're obvious.
Um MB, this was one of the other obvious
um stocks, but it was up a little bit
too high. You know, we just had an issue
today where I think it was not clear
which one was really going to work. And
it's there's a really good chance that
one of these ends up continuing higher
through the opening range. And I'm going
to sit here, at least in my big account,
in the red. and you know, I hit my max
loss and it just is what it is. Uh
something's going to go higher and I'm
going to miss it. But isn't that kind of
always the case that you at some point
have to decide you're going to walk away
whether it's because you have profit and
you feel like you've done well enough or
maybe you gave back profit or you're
red. So, you're always kind of leaving
money on the table and generally that's
okay as long as you're, you know,
keeping some profit in your pocket.
Today was a day where I didn't do uh as
good of a job on that. So although I am
technically green uh and I am green in
the small account. Uh that's sort of
half the picture because in my uh main
account uh I'm red today. But I'll I'll
upload that recap a little bit later
today. Now um what we can do uh is uh
take a quick look at my metrics in the
small account challenge. So this is the
small account challenge right here. And
you can see the big green day there on
day 30. Today is day 31. that tiny
little green day down there. It actually
makes it look like my equity curve is
going down. Uh but it's not. It's sort
of just the way the graph does it. Um I
it is still profit which is good. So uh
added one additional trade today. Um
total trades now showing 69 um in uh
trader view here. 76% accuracy. Profit
loss ratio a little better than 1 one
with that one bigger loss kind of
drawing things down a bit. Um, but
nonetheless, um, about $63,900
of profit, uh, versus the initial
starting balance of 2,000 is what has my
account up a little over 65,000, uh,
minus a couple of the fees that, um,
come out of the account from, uh,
Thinker Swim. There's no commissions,
but they do have some, um, securities
and exchange, uh, fees that you have to
pay. They're they're pretty small, but
uh, they do come out. So, that's where
um, I finish the week here. Um, big
picture, I'm green on the week in both
my big account and my small account,
which is great, although the big account
did get beaten up today. But again,
we'll uh have the recap for that coming
uh soon. And for those of you guys that
want to study up, um you could check out
our twoe trial and over the weekend, you
could go through some of the classes
that are part of that trial and uh get a
better sense of the strategy that I'm
trading every single day. I put it all
on the table. You know, green days, red
days, they happen. I do the recaps, I
walk you through it, and uh I expect
you'll probably learn a good bit from my
red day recap that's coming shortly. So,
I'll put a link to that um in the corner
of um the the description or the
disclaimer here that I'm going to uh put
up in just a moment. And I'll remind you
guys as always, of course, that trading
is risky. My results are not typical,
and there's no guarantee you'll find
success whether you trade on your own or
you learn from me. So, please manage
your risk and always practice in a
simulator before putting real money on
the line. With that, I'll see you guys
back at it bright and early on Monday
morning.