Trading The Close | August 11, 2026

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Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosk and guys,
today was another light volume day in
the markets. Somewhat anticipated. We
are in the middle of summer, right?
We've got school coming back, at least
here in Florida. Hard to believe. But
then guys, we also had the CPI data
being released tomorrow morning at 8:30
in the morning. CPI followed up by PPI
on Thursday. Those inflation datas are
going to be paid attention to very
closely considering what the Fed likely
will do in September regarding rate
hikes or cuts. Right now, 52% chance
keeping those rates as they are for the
September meeting, but likely this
inflation data will uptick. That's what
I'm expecting. That could put pressure
on the Fed, which also could put
pressure on the 10-year yield to tick
higher, which let's get into the charts
and go over where everything was. Now,
first off, with the S&P 500, the Q's and
the SMH, there really wasn't too much
going on. Yeah, we had a little bit of
down day today. Down 32% in the S&P 500,
but on the daily time frame, what does
this look like, guys? It's just more
sideways chop consolidation for the past
five trading days after getting rejected
from this inclining trend line. Now, one
interesting uh feature about what's
going on with price action now is that
when we did break out of this previous
all-time high pivot designated by this
horizontal trend line at $760.40,
we did so in a very clean one candle
break, but we haven't pushed above this
green candle and closed above this green
candle since. So, for right now, this is
an unconfirmed breakout to brand new
all-time highs on the S&P 500. That kind
of makes sense because the SMH, as I've
said many times, is a leading indicator
for me and the SMH isn't anywhere near
its all-time highs. So, let's see what
the spiders can do in the coming days.
If we get a close above 77341,
I would then say and we could almost
confirm and shift probabilities for more
upside for the medium term. Doesn't mean
we won't come back down and retest this
top end trend line for support, but at
least that would establish ourselves for
a near-term breakout on the S&P 500.
Something that quite curiously hasn't
happened yet, mainly because this
inclining trend line is holding price
back. So, that's something I'm going to
be paying attention to very, very
closely after the CPI data print
tomorrow, as well as that PPI on
Thursday. Next up, the Q's. As we see
here, similar to the S&P 500, down.34%,
somewhat sideways consolidation, not as
tight as the S&P 500 just because of
this one lonely day on August 6th, just
beneath the consolidation range. So, not
too much new to report. Upside
resistance still at 72936.
Downside support still right here from
this June 5th low at 70432.
that would get in the lower range of
that bullish consolidation and in
essence effectively breaking it should
we see selling pressure in the coming
days on the Q's on the SMH we did fall
um uh just appears a little bit further
away from this trend line however the
SMH was positive today while the Q's and
the S and the U spiders were both
negative so we see we didn't have any
price action coming up and testing the
top end of consolidation like we did the
last two days getting into this
inclining trend line so that is at least
the one positive for price pulling back.
However, it's above where it closed
yesterday. Now, the one key difference,
if you guys remember yesterday's
10-minute candle close on this SMH, look
at that nasty close down here. That's
part of the reason why the SMH is
actually positive compared to the the
spiders in the Q's. The spiders and the
Q's rebounded on this last 10-minute
candle, whereas the SMH, as you see
clearly, it did not right here. It had a
nasty nasty sell into the end of the day
yesterday. So on the daily time frame,
really not too much new to report here.
Sideways consolidation just under
resistance. So it's implying it's trying
to build momentum to go higher and we
could have that tipping point with the
CPI and the PPI data both with the
spiders confirming the breakout as well.
Now into an area that can put pressure
on the markets, the 10-year yield. This
also did pull back slightly today, but
look where we're finishing up the day
above the resistance level of 4.687.
Just because we close up here doesn't
necessarily change the story because
we've closed up here several other
times. But the more often that we're
closing up in this range, the more
comfortable the 10-year yield is getting
with being this elevated. That can build
momentum for it to push to the next leg
higher at 4.89%.
Again, if we have all this happen, you
know, we have break points on the SMH to
the upside, we likely aren't going to be
pushing much higher on the 10-year yield
if that occurs. So this really this
report this week really does determine
near-term which way are we going to be
going uh to move through the middle of
August moving through this lighter
volume time frame stretching out through
the last little bits of summer vacation
into gold that we did see a little bit
of pullback while the 10-year yield did
pull back too. Uh so interesting profit
taking area here for gold. But you see
here this is a resistance level at
$4,333.
We got above it and closed above it the
last two trading days. So really this
somewhat is negated but this still is a
resistance spot having since we have
broken back into that parallel. I fully
anticipate this range to pull price on
gold back down to the bottom of the
parallel to then potentially bounce and
go higher. This would then confirm a
bounce here at $4,237
will confirm the continued breakout at
least near-term on gold. That way we
don't get too far extended uh in a short
period of time. It's healthy for price
action to pull back, catch support,
bounce, and attack the next leg. Next
up, we've got silver doing somewhat the
similar thing here, right? Having a nice
pullback. We closed two days above this
horizontal trend line. This does make
this level the near-term support at
$6326.
So, be watching to see if silver comes
down, tags that as early as tomorrow,
and holds above that with a daily close.
that would be near-term positive for the
next leg to get tested at $67.99.
Now guys, here is a chart that will
definitely put pressure on CPI and PPI.
I may not do so as much now on this
report. But guys, this is something to
really pay attention to in the coming
days and also the next month to two
regarding rates, inflation, cost of
goods, everything that has to do with
your bottom line at the house is what's
going to happen on the chart of oil. And
what I see happening now, yeah, it was a
rejection here, but guys, the more often
that we test this level, the more
concerned that I get that we're about to
be on the brink of another breakout in
the cost of oil. And what am I talking
about? Mainly on this declining trend
line. Notice we've hit price here once,
twice, three times on this third time.
Pierced it, put in two closes, but then
came right back down. Came up, attacked
it for a fourth time. Now we're hitting
it again for a fifth time. These last
three hits all done very closely
together, guys. Not spaced out as much
as what we've seen from the first to the
second or either the second to the third
hit. So, the repetitive hits weakens
this resistance level. And then it also
implies the more often we're hitting it
in such short duration, it implies we're
going to be breaking out in the near
term. And once and if we break out,
guys, notice what's forming on this
chart. We've got an inverse head and
shoulders pattern with in essence we've
got the neckline pretty close to this
trend line. You could draw and make an
argument that this could be one of the
necklines for that inverse head and
shoulders pattern. So you can see that
if and when we start breaking out of
this first trend line then that kicks
starts and cascades if you will a whole
another series of potential levels
moving higher particularly with an
inverse head and shoulders pattern that
carries a measured move target up here
near the highs of which we got right at
the beginning of the war in Iran. So we
could be on our way to march to do that.
Haven't done it yet guys and I'm warning
you this is just preliminary analysis.
We just haven't broken out yet. But the
repeated hits at that line is telling me
oil is trying to break out. And if we
continue to break out and push through
this resistance, guys, that would
trigger that inverse head and shoulders
pattern and be ready for higher prices
at the pump. One thing that makes me
think this may not happen, we got
midterms coming up soon. That's going to
be over here in November. All right, so
we got all this time to wait and
hopefully see the price of oil stay
down. Uh but then after the midterms,
I'd say basically anything and anything
could be possible for price action there
on US oil, particularly with the
conflict there in the Middle East. So
just a warning signal here, guys, right
on US oil could be marching higher. Next
up, the chart of natural gas really just
took the day off. Great last two days
though, pushing up above this previous
support, which now in fact will play as
support again, $2.75. I do still think
natural gas is headed higher uh on the
charts. Next stop upwards $2.90.
Next up into Bitcoin. Not too much new
to report. Another rejection and further
price action away from this inclining
parallel channel. That's the line in the
sand to start getting near-term a little
bit more bullish. $65,000.
This would get me far more bullish
near-term beating 66,792.
That's the neckline of the inverse head
and shoulders pattern that can take
price on Bitcoin up to the 72 to $74,000
range right now. Not getting anywhere
close to that price action. Next up, we
got a couple earnings plays, guys. First
up, Onon. All right, on on reported
earnings, really not that bad, but they
did miss revenue by 3.2%. They did say
that they're going to hold their margins
where they are and not discount their
products and try to get more market
share by discounting their their
inventory. So, I think that's actually a
probably a pretty positive sign for them
uh near to medium-term. However, look
where we are technically. We have a
beautiful third hit of a declining trend
line taken back here from the April 2025
lows connected over to this pivot that
occurred here in March of this year.
Now, you see direct shot straight down
here provided the support for today.
Now, this was a big drop 20 plus percent
on on on. Now, anytime a stock moves
more than 20% off of earnings, sometimes
that could catch investors offguard may
very well catch some in margin call
situations. So, watch out over the next
three to five days. We could have
extended selling potentially pushing
price under this trend line. But guys, I
anticipate this trend line to hold and
push price right back up to these low
range pivots around $34.80
if this does break with this extended
selling. And if it does do so with a
decent fashion, pushing down pretty uh a
pretty good distance away from that
line, say under $29, it very well may go
to the next support at 2692. But you
see, we've been in a declining parallel
channel here on the chart of on getting
a little bit oversold near. The bad news
though, here's the bad. I went through
all the positive where I think we could
bounce. The bad news here, we put in a
close underneath these most recent lows.
So again, with the story of the extended
selling, we could see this down here a
few more days, but I do anticipate price
to start bubbling right back up into
these low range pivots just under $35.
Next [snorts] up, we've got SE. Now,
this is an interesting story, guys. SE,
if you're not aware, this is a a company
in Asia. They're involved with gaming,
entertainment, such as videos,
financing, as well as shopping. They've
got a trifecta way to not only
capitalize on the market, but to gain
revenue. And so this stock beating up as
it was, they've got all sorts of ways to
capture revenue and they're doing pretty
good. So this stock is starting to break
out and it's breaking back up into this
parallel channel. So let's take a look
at what's happening here today. Putting
a beautiful close up here, $131.51,
getting above this key high pivot that
occurred back in January of this year.
Now, if I rewind the time, look at this
inclining parallel channel where price
consolidated in for about a half a month
earlier this year and then broke down
and then we've since now retraced the
scene of the crime. This should be an
area in which price gets a rejection.
But look at that strong close pushing
not only inside the parallel but above
this previous pivot high. Now, the
work's not done for SE. It needs to
follow it up tomorrow. Otherwise, we're
vulnerable for a decline right back down
through this parallel channel at
$128.62.
We need to put in that close sooner
rather than later, flipping this area
into support so can start building
momentum within that parallel channel.
We're overbought near-term on the daily
RSI. We're at 76.77.
Doesn't mean we're going to get rejected
100%, but odds do favor a sharp move
into this region. should at minimum see
some consolidation if not a little bit
of a pullback before another attempted
push higher in SE. If you notice what
happens if that does occur, if we have a
little surge higher, then a drop back
down, left shoulder, head, potential
right shoulder, that would be a neckline
break. But then this other declining
trend line, notice because SE has been
way up on the charts before, folks. This
would be the bigger trend line break
that I am focusing on. So, we've got a
few things for SE to do. It accomplished
the first thing today. Get back inside
that parallel channel. Second thing,
confirm the close within the parallel
channel. Third, build the momentum,
break the in uh inverse head and
shoulders, but then most importantly,
break this declining trend line at $153.
Lots of more work left to do for SE, but
this chart right now is showing signs
that it will likely come through and
attempt to break through this declining
trend line sooner rather than later.
Next up, guys, we've got Google. Google
here, you see beautiful decline here,
down 3.8 84%. Uh we Google did post
negative second quarter free cla cash
cash flow of upwards of $5.9 billion
after spending 44.9 billion in capex AI
data center buildout guys. So investors
did not like that. Next support level is
not far away. It's right here at this
50% area the parallel at $342.3.
Now, if we gap over that tomorrow, next
support will be this gap fill 333 and 74
cents for a potential day trade. But I
do like this longerterm inclining trend
line for a more uh staying power
near-term bounce on Google should we see
selling straight down into that level
32763
that could generate a bounce to then
retest this failed breakout. Speaking of
which, guys, notice what happened here.
Inverse head and shoulders pattern got
funky with this right shoulder. So, it
doesn't necessarily uh qualify as one,
but nonetheless broke out of this
declining trend line, confirmed, and
then failed. Whenever you have a failed
move, guys, you generally have a big
move in the opposite direction. Take
notes of this. Be mindful of it. When
your price action fails, it's best just
to exit the position. That way, you can
re-evaluate and get in at one of these
better levels that is definitely on sale
from the average that you did have up
here in this range. All right, next up,
KKR. Now, guys, this is a really neat
chart. I left this blank for a reason,
to go through series of steps of
breakouts for you to help you start
picturing how to analyze a chart when it
is trying to break out. All right. Now,
KKR, I do not trade this stock that
often. You can see here I don't have
anything marked up. That's intentional.
However, when I first pulled up this
chart, I didn't have anything on it
either. So, I wanted to illustrate what
my mind would go through seeing price
action displayed today as a beautiful
push up 6.88%. I go straight back over
to previous pivots on the chart. Draw a
trend line across. Boom. Breakout check
number one. Now, tomorrow we need to see
a confirming move on that sort of
breakout in order to have any sort of
staying power on that chart. All right.
Secondly, what are we looking at here
for maybe near-term resistance? Well,
let's get a parallel channel. We draw a
parallel from pivot low to pivot low.
Take that up to the most recent pivot
high. Well, you could see here clearly
too, we've got resistance coming up at
$113.51.
Would be a great spot to put in a close
tomorrow above this candle, allowing
this horizontal trend line to then be
support, build that momentum to then
break out of that parallel channel. Now,
then where could it go if it breaks out
of that parallel channel? Next step, go
back further in time, get your trend
line tool, top angle of that U major
high pivot, draw that trend line down
through the chart, and then boom, you
now have a near-term destination. If
this rally continues, breaks through
that parallel channel. Now we have a
destination target for where we're going
to find further resistance. And if we
can get through that, man, free sailing
beyond that breakout line. So, series of
breakouts for KKR. All of these are
available to you right here on your
charts. Just draw a simple line, guys. I
said this a while ago. I am no artist,
but I can draw a trend line. Anybody can
on these charts. It's so simple to do.
Uh next up, guys, and lastly, three
stocks with earnings. So, we're going to
go quickly through these. Check out uh
LIT, guys. It looks like it did nothing.
Let's see here on the hourly time frame.
It did pop up to 842. Also sold down to
778. So right now, LIIT stuck now in
this declining wedge pattern in which we
sold back into yesterday. Near-term
upside for it to break above is not that
much of a feat. 84351 tomorrow.
Near-term support down here around 746
into SMCI. Look at this explosion here
on SMCI. I guess they did have their
books in order. They do have a big
backlog. So hopefully with their
auditing issues is hopefully those are
all behind them. And that's appears to
be what price action is displaying. Now
guys, notice what's going on on this
chart. We have a left shoulder, a head,
and a right shoulder. Yesterday, price
action confirmed the breakout from this
neckline. The declining trend line you
see on your chart. This carries a
measured move up here, folks, to $40.72.
Next resistance, this high pivot
tomorrow likely should be tagged around
$36.80.
Lastly, guys, we got Cava. Look at this.
Cava popping up pretty nicely. That can
be anticipated. We have seen a nasty
decline here on Cava on the charts.
Let's see the hourly time frame. Oh wow,
straight up just about got up to near
the $70 mark so far after hours. So nice
push here on Cava. If you see here what
I've got going on near-term, let's take
a look at this declining parallel
channel showing you how much Cava has
really sold off ever since November of
2024. Taking a massive cut in price.
also has been in somewhat bearish
consolidation. Downward move, bare flag,
continue downward move, tried to get out
of this bare flag, got rejected again.
So near-term resistance is defined by
this low pivot connected to this next
pivot that occurred here on June 3rd.
Draw that up. Notice how price when it
broke, it retested that trend line.
That's our famous saying in this show.
You have a breakdown, retrace, and fade
play or a breakout, retrace, and bounce
play. It's the same thing, same thing
above as below. And that's exactly what
happened. That tells me that's the
destination in which we're going to find
some significant resistance. And notice
I kind of almost have an X marks the
spot if price action does come up here
to the top of this parallel at $8049.
Should have a lot of resistance for Cava
to get through at that spot. All right,
guys. Thanks so much for tuning in and
watching today. Don't forget to like and
subscribe. Send this out to your friends
and family so they too can learn
technical analysis on the charts. Guys,
we'll be back here tomorrow covering all
of that information for CPI. Can't wait.
Should have some volatility tomorrow.
I'm anticipating it because we only had
35 million shares traded today on the
S&P 500. Should uptick with that data
print. We'll wait and see. Not holding
my breath, guys. Until then, I'll see
you next time on the charts. Take care,
everybody.