Trading The Close | August 12, 2026

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys
today we started off the day with the
CPI data report report back to inflation
numbers all of which came in in line and
the markets actually rejoiced with that.
Now we didn't rally up tremendously
throughout the day. We had some positive
movement but really we gapped up and
then we sold off. I'm going to show you
a neat pattern that's emerging over the
last couple days but really think about
it. We've had a lot of discussion over
the last couple weeks of regarding
potential rate hikes coming in
September. The in line CPI data combined
with the weak jobs report last week
losing 23,000 jobs has now increased
probabilities of no rate hike. Keeping
the rates exactly in line but there is
0% chance of a rate cut and about a 40%
chance of a rate hike. Last piece of the
puzzle comes tomorrow morning at 8:30 in
the morning with the PPI data. All right
guys, let's get into the charts. We got
a lot to cover big movers with earnings
not too much moving on the indices. As
you see here with the S&P 500 on the
daily time frame only up 0.25% where the
story of the day in my opinion comes is
our gap up and then sell off throughout
the rest of the day. A very nice hard
sell at first and then some sideways
price action. This is very similar guys.
We did something pretty much the same
the day before gapping up selling off
hard trying to get a little bit of a bit
of a bounce and then faded through the
rest of the day. If you notice if I go
back further, this happened a third time
back over here on August 5th. We gapped
up sold off and then really pushed
sideways for the rest of the day. So
we're starting to have a new pattern
emerge, a little gap up and sell off
throughout the course of price
interacting with this inclining trend
line. And I remind you, too, we have not
yet confirmed breaking above the
previous all-time highs today, putting
in a close right here in that green
candle again. So, it's still kind of
fascinating. Makes me believe, as I said
with the intro, we're waiting to check
off the the boxes to ensure that there
aren't any rate hikes coming in
September, last piece of the puzzle, or
at least the near-term puzzle comes
tomorrow morning with the PPI. We still
will have more inflation and jobs report
coming in September that could offset
some of these odds. But at least for
right now, that's what investors are
concerned about. Moving through the end
of August, will we start rallying? And
the last piece of that puzzle likely
will come tomorrow. All right, into the
Qs, you see here up 0.73%, very similar
to the spiders in the fact that we're
still in consolidation mode. If we do
push up more tomorrow, resistance here
on this trend line, $729.30,
but nice tight consolidation the last
four trading days, getting up here
towards the top end of that range. And
the SMH, as you see here, we actually
did push up at one point throughout the
day above this inclining trend line, yet
we did fail to hold it by the close, as
we closed back down underneath that
trend line. So, that kicks the can into
tomorrow. Resistance still will be to
close above this level at $500 86.12.
If we do that, then next resistance
isn't far away at that declining trend
line, 589.46.
Now, what would be great for the bulls
on the SMH is to do what we've seen on
the spiders, gap up overnight, but yet
not sell off. Gap up over both of those
resistance lines and then start trading
above this inclining trend line. That
would be the most ideal bullish scenario
for the SMH. Let's flip it back over to
the daily. Uh simple moving average, and
you can see a gap up of that sort of
nature
could then potentially clear this 50
moving average. In which case, if you
guys remember, I've been talking about
how I've really been gauging if we're
going to get more risk on if we get
price on the SMH above that 50 simple
moving average. We're very, very close
now. Could happen by the end of this
week. All right, next up, guys, we've
got the 10-year yield. That did also
decline slightly today, but as far as
for any alleviating pressure with the
10-year yield, you're not going to get
that with today's candle as we put in a
nice wick on the bottom end pushing the
price of the 10-year yield back here to
this key resistance level, 4.687%.
As you see, price has been really
closing around there for the past couple
weeks. So, no relief here on the 10-year
yield. If we do continue pushing up,
even without the opportunity of rate
hikes, the markets can still push up the
10-year yield up into this 4.809%
as the next level of resistance. Even
with the 10-year yield putting in a
decent recovery day, it's still down.
Gold did find its way to push up because
of that 10-year yield helping it do so
as well. Plus, there's euphoric buying
pressure here in gold with this
near-term breakout at hand confirming
back in the parallel channel. If you
notice here today, we're putting in its
third close above this resistance not
line at $4,333.
That now officially is
flipping into near-term support, $4,333
followed by this bottom barrier of the
parallel channel at $4,245.
With this confirming close today, that
means the next target here is above
$4,500 at $4,575
for gold. Into silver, as you see here,
putting in beautiful near-term bullish
consolidation here on top of this
support trend line that has already
confirmed above as well. So, support on
this chart of silver at $63.26.
Next resistance where I see silver could
go, $67.99.
Next up in US oil, I brought out some
news yesterday uh warning you guys to
really pay attention to this declining
trend line and that is the same story
today as we see price action try to get
above yet again, but then also failed
right here at this trend line. If and
when we start breaking above, guys will
change these charts, get the proper as
far as uh correct inverse head and
shoulders pattern with the trend line
connected from this pivot down here to
this pivot and illustrate where price
can go if we break the next level. But
this in essence is the first big crack
in the ice for a potential bigger move
here on US oil. Trying to keep you guys
in the driver's seat with this one, but
still as of yet have not at least gotten
one day to close above that declining
trend line. Next up, nat gas, nice push
today putting in consolidation holding
on top of 275 most importantly. That
tells me next target $2.90 and guys, I
really think nat gas this could be it. I
could be wrong, but I think it's put in
its near-term low and I think the upside
uh target for nat gas is the more likely
probability to push up to $3.29.
Uh next up into Bitcoin. You see here I
drew a different trend line on Bitcoin.
I drew something from the bottom and
connecting pivot to pivot illustrating
this level is pretty important for
Bitcoin to hang on to. Now you notice we
also have a near-term inverse head and
shoulders pattern that has not yet
triggered. It can do so above this
neckline right at 66,779
dollars. Until it does something like
that, we're hanging on by a thread to
maintain this pattern as we speak. Guys,
having price come down lower wouldn't be
the end of the road there for Bitcoin,
but it likely would start negating this
sort of pattern set up for that positive
push up to 74,000. So if you're bull on
Bitcoin, you really don't want to see
price get too low under this trend line
mainly under this right shoulder as this
would start to distort the the pattern
at hand on the chart. So, interesting
price movement here. We really don't
want to see Bitcoin close any lower than
$63,400.
Next up, now this is a viewer request
from HiYo Silver. Sorry I didn't get to
it yesterday. We had a full show. But
guys, need to cover the chart of
Microsoft. You had a great
recommendation, HiYo Silver. And plus I
got another recommendation from a viewer
request on our very next chart. We'll
jump into that next. But first up,
Microsoft. So, let's take a look at
Microsoft. Unreal move on Microsoft
here, guys, from this June 25th low.
Look at this push here on Microsoft to
the pivot that occurred just on Monday.
46%. We're not talking about a small cap
stock. We're talking about Microsoft,
guys. What an incredible gain that's
taken place. So, you can see here
clearly today having a pullback. That
should happen. Anytime you have a stock,
even a big stock like this move that
much, we need time to digest the move.
And that digestion occurs through
pullbacks. It It occurs through
pullbacks, consolidation, etc. But
40-plus percent on Microsoft, we need to
have some pullbacks. I I rewind the time
back out further so you can see the
point of contention in which pulled
price back. It's this inclining parallel
channel dating all the way back here to
November of 2022. We pierced outside of
it to the top once and twice. And look,
we pierced outside of it to the bottom
once and twice. Notice how these
patterns don't repeat or don't look
identical 100%. But like like I say in
history, guys, history doesn't
necessarily repeat, it rhymes. And
notice it did the exact same thing above
as it did below. Broke twice and now
finds itself back in the middle of the
parallel channel. Very much like what it
did here when it plunged down, got a
nice bounce. I'm anticipating the exact
same thing in the opposite direction.
Huge surge up should see a little plunge
coming down.
Major support here 474.90
followed by $450
for Microsoft for a returning bounce to
retest the 50% area that parallel. It's
just gone a little bit too far, too
fast. Needs to unwind just a little bit,
catch support, and then look for that
next leg up there on Microsoft. There
Next up, ASML, as requested by a Q
writer boss. Very interesting chart
we've got going here. Now, notice I've
left on this blue parallel mainly
because I wanted to highlight this
yellow trend line, as well. So, we see
we've recently broken out of this
parallel and then retraced, and this is
the bounce play. Guys, this is what we
go through in this show often, so many
times. Look at this level for the
bounce, though. It not only was a high
probability bounce because of the
breakout and the confirmation move, but
then we had a support trend line there,
too, adding a second level of a support.
Basically, two-factor setup for that
sort of bounce, and bounce occurred.
Beautiful, V-shaped recovery. Look back
further on this chart, you can see most
of the time back here since 2021, we've
really been contained nicely in this
parallel channel. Cleanly, we are seeing
a breakout retrace play and a bounce
that is occurring. The one thing that I
do have hesitation about this stock
going and making brand new all-time
highs, which I do think it can do, but
if I flip to the weekly time frame, look
at this big red flag that sticks out
like a sore thumb. We have a weekly
topping tail that price does need to get
above. It doesn't mean it can't get
above. We've negated topping tails all
throughout this chart. So, something
like this certainly can happen. It did,
though, illustrate the fact that price
did drop over 20%. So, that very well
could be the end of the tank for the
selling, but you got to be mindful if
you're going long ASML, you want to see
a weekly close over $2,000 to help
negate that weekly topping tail. Very
similar thing going on over here with
Dell. So, you see Dell is on the verge
this week of negating the weekly topping
tail. Look how clean that consolidation
has been over these weeks and it's now
pushing right out. So, you got to be
mindful of this. Go towards the end of
the week, see if we do close above
469.47.
If so, that likely will then kick-start
a near-term surge on Dell with folks
covering that were shorting in this
range. Uh next up into some earnings
plays, guys. Look at SMCI pushing up
today more than 19% on the chart. What a
rip, guys. But look, I saw this
happening in the uh just recent history
when price got above this declining
trendline, which happens to be the
neckline of an inverse head and
shoulders pattern that carries a
targeted measured move at $40.70.
Now, 20-plus percent, that's a really
quick move. Notice we haven't retraced
this trendline either. So, that gives
anybody the buying opportunity. Any
pullbacks on SMCI, whether it's the
first support down to $33 at the 50%
area of the parallel or this trendline,
that doesn't seem likely now, but at
$28.80,
any pullbacks before we hit this
measured move can be a buying
opportunity for momentum to return and
price action to complete that measured
move of the inverse head and shoulders.
Now, I don't think SMCI's done there. I
think SMCI's got a lot of room to run if
and when they can continue to report
accurate earnings reports and not get
themselves into any legal issues. Uh
beyond the head and shoulders, next
resistance is at $43.
and $13. Next up, another huge mover off
of earnings. Look at this on NBIS, now
officially on breakout watch. Look where
it closed yesterday, guys. Back within
this lower range parallel channel today,
we've not only broken out above that,
we've broken out above this declining
trendline coming from the highs, guys.
So, watch this stock tomorrow. If we put
in a close above the high today at
259.44, any pullbacks to that declining
trend line at $241 will be a buying
opportunity for price to push up to this
bottom range of the parallel. That would
be new all-time high territories, right
up there at 335 on the chart. Uh next
up, Kava also reported earnings.
Beautiful push here on Kava. Mainly, the
big thing on the news for the chart on
Kava today is it closed above this pivot
high on July 30th. Much like on the
other charts, it needs to confirm and
continue pushing higher in order for it
to establish a new level of support
right here and attack where I think Kava
is going, where X marks the spot right
here contained from a declining parallel
channel at this top level of resistance.
And then we cleanly have a
distinguishing trend line here
separating the uh price from above and
the most recent plunge below. That tells
me price is likely headed to $80 and 32
cents. It's got some legwork to do
first. It needs to, as I said, push
higher above today's candle and close.
We could see some profit taking, little
price action consolidation, but I
ultimately think price will get back to
the $80 range on the chart of Kava. Uh
next up on SNDK, also on breakout watch
from this declining trend line that you
see here, guys. But most importantly,
you see this other trend line, which is
the inclining trend line from a head and
shoulders pattern, has not yet been
closed back above, at least on this go.
We did on these two days, back on August
5th and 4th, but at least now that price
level is holding the price down. We'll
see if that will be the case in the
coming days here at 1361 on the chart.
Be mindful of that. That could actually
kickstart some more buying pressure to
push up to this $1,500 as the next level
of resistance. But most importantly,
today, be mindful of this declining
trend line. If we close above today's
candle tomorrow, we'll accomplish two
things. We'd confirm a near-term
breakout, and then we'd also break out
above this inclining trend line. So, a
really important trading day tomorrow
for SNDK. Notice too, this has mainly
been contained recently, downward move,
sideways chop. That's a bear flag on the
charts. And so, all of these sorts of
moves I've just described tomorrow will
help negate and get it out of that
bearish pattern and help alleviate um
some upward movement on the chart. Next
up and lastly, guys, two charts to go
over that have earnings today. We've got
Coherent, COHR. We see here pulling down
just ever so slightly to 343 and change.
Next level of support likely will come
here at this gap fill, $328. But, a more
longer-term swing trade support level
will be down at the bottom of this
parallel at $295. We flip to the hourly
time frame. We did actually have
jockeying that pushed us up in here to
the 380 range. We got down here to that
$326 range. So, that gap fill already
was tested and provided the support. It
got down to 326 cleanly. You can see
here that gap fill is at $328.
That was the first level provided that
beautiful bounce after hours. So,
tomorrow, that level has already been
used and likely can't get blown through
if we do have price continue and
potentially open up down here in this
range. Uh next up, and this is what I
consider to be somewhat of a barometer
for the AI data center. Cerebrus just
came out with the IPO this year. Not a
lot of data to go through on this chart,
but they do produce some of the biggest
wafers in the world, wafers for AI
semiconductor uh chip production. So,
let's get into this. This in essence is
going to be a really good um gauge to
see how much risk on, how well AI's
doing, what Cerebrus doing. And right
now, you can see here, not too good and
rosy, guys. We closed at 262 post-market
hours. Now trading at $218.
That is a steep decline so far on this
chart. And look, guys, we haven't had
that much of a bounce so far on the
hourly time frame. Man, flipping into
the 10, it was basically been straight
mid straight down all the way here to
$214
on the chart. So, wow, big huge
reduction getting back to the point in
which we put in consolidation before
this nice little curl up on the charts.
The selling pressure continues, guys.
Price action could find support on this
declining trend line. That's down here,
guys, under 200 bucks right around $182.
But, I do want to illustrate something
here just for education purposes on this
chart. Look at how price broke out from
these trend lines. Notice this. We've
got a declining trend line cap price
when it came up. When price made another
attempt, we never confirmed, got
rejection got rejected, then look, we
finally confirmed, then we had the
retrace and breakout play. Like that,
retrace it again and since broke out.
Very interesting stuff how these price
action patterns repeat themselves over
and over and over. And much like how
price rejected
uh uh the breakout right here with this
trend line, it did the same thing here
when we had our retrace bounce play. We
initially got over, never confirmed,
price came right back in, then we
finally broke out, confirmed. Look at
that retrace, didn't get all the way
down to the trend line, but it
nonetheless did retrace right back down
to this pivot, and then exploded to go
higher. Man, drawing one trend line,
guys, at accurate spots at a pivot high
to another pivot high can really help
guide you through a trade. Illustrate
when it's breaking out, when to get into
the trade, when to get out of the trade,
when then to take the profits, and then
also continue, wash, and repeat with the
same sort of pattern by drawing one
trend line, guys. It's really can
generate so much money. It's incredible.
Oh, man, that wraps up Trading the
Close. Thank you guys so much for
watching today. Don't forget to like and
subscribe. Send this out to your friends
and family so they too can learn uh
technical analysis on the charts. Got
one more Trading the Close tomorrow with
PPI coming at 8:30. Look forward to
going over it with you tomorrow. Until
then, you guys have a fantastic day, and
we'll see you on the charts. Take care,
everybody.