Trading The Close | August 13, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and folks
today we actually had a pretty wild day
for a Thursday. Now first off, we've had
the PPI data that came in mainly in line
if not a little bit cooler than what was
anticipated. So guys, we had the jobs
report last week that came in way under
the expectations. Matter of fact, it was
negative. CPI came in in line this week
and the PPI came in in line to a little
bit weaker. That was all the recipe
needed for a rally and some confirming
moves as well as some breakouts that are
occurring on major charts, guys. Let's
get into it. Plus, we had Workday that
get that had an announcement this
afternoon. Apparently, news came about a
potential buyout. Guys, software stocks
started ripping at 2:30 in the
afternoon. We're going to show you these
charts here in just a few moments, but
first up, the S&P 500 as it is the
barometer of the overall market. Now as
you can see here on the SPY on the daily
time frame, look at this close that we
put in, guys. We've been waiting for a
close above this key
candle that broke out above the all-time
highs confirming the breakout on the S&P
500. Look how many candles it took,
guys. 1 2 3 4 5 6 and then your magic
number seven finally confirmed this one
candle's breakout. So what that does now
is that means any pullback down here to
the previous all-time highs at $760
is support and could be a buying
opportunity for price to push right back
up to this inclining trend line on the
chart. Check out the 10-minute pattern
and really how we highlighted this
yesterday, how there have been several
days leading into this inflation data
report where we gapped up and sold off.
Matter of fact, the previous 2 days
before our PPI over here, we gapped up,
sold off, gapped up, sold off. So,
everything was changing and then today
changed it all, guys, because we gapped
up and bought and went higher. And when
we came back down to test the lower
range of the day, where did we do that,
guys? Right here on this inclining trend
line, almost to the penny. And I'll
remind you where this inclining trend
line comes from, guys. This is from all
the way back here in February of 2025.
Oftentimes, I'll have people that may
not know too much about technical
analysis. They'll see me draw trend
lines on my chart that extend back
years, maybe even like this one, a year
and a half almost. And they'll wonder,
"Well, why is he still putting that on
the chart?" Guys, cuz today, it provided
support. Now, think about that. That's
kind of mind-boggling, isn't it? But the
fact is, this is how charts work. And
so, learning TA will certainly put you
on the right side of several trades.
Now, it's not going to be flawless. TA
definitely has areas in which uh topping
tails get negated, trend lines get blown
through, but guys, it gives you
information when price action does break
at those specific levels. And in this
case, it's showing us how support is
being provided to the S&P 500 when it
dipped down intraday today from a trend
line back in February of 2025. Still
fascinating stuff when you do draw that
out and actually see it play out right
here on the 10-minute chart providing
that bounce. Now, clearly, the last
several days, we interacted with it just
the same, but still, it's remarkable to
see how when we're coming from below,
it's resistance, and when we come from
above, we catch a nice bounce right on
top of that line. Not on top of this
pivot or this pivot, but we caught that
bounce on top of that trend line.
Interesting stuff there on the spiders.
Now, next up into the Qs, guys, look at
that daily close right here, right above
this declining trend line in break out
watch. And I say watch because that's
just one candle up. We very well could
navigate right underneath this trend
line tomorrow. Now, the main thing to
have any sort of staying power with any
break out, you want to see conviction.
You want to see a follow through push in
the next couple days of trading
extending itself from the point at which
it broke out from that then flips that
trend line that you see here on your
chart into support. That hasn't happened
yet, but this is definitely on a break
out watch with this beautiful push on
the QQQ. Should we continue to do that
with conviction and push up to break
out, next test will be at the all-time
highs back here at this pivot high at
$748
and $0.65. Next up into the SMH, guys,
look at that candle. Notice I've been
talking about this declining trend line.
Guys, we were comfortably trading above
this earlier and throughout most of the
day up until about 2:30. Let me throw on
the simple moving averages, too, because
I've been also highlighting that fact on
this chart because the semis to me are a
leading indicator. If these start this
chart starts getting into more bullish
scenarios such as a breakout scenario
above this declining trend line or a
breakout over this 50 simple day moving
average, which is in blue, as you can
see here, roughly about at $592.49.
If we put in daily closes above both the
declining trend line and that 50 moving
average, we likely are getting into
breakout mode on the SMH. We're not
there yet. Very, very close. We need to
see a confirming move with the Qs. We
need to see a big push on the SMH with a
close above both that declining trend
line and also that 50 simple moving
average, and then I can safely say,
guys, in the near term, at least up
until September, we should be in
breakout mode for the last 2 weeks of
August. So, we'll be watching that very
closely tomorrow.
Next up into the 10-year yield, yield
pulled back ever so slightly today down
here at 4.649%
not that far away from this key level of
resistance in which price has been up
and down all around it over the past
several weeks. If we do continue to stay
in this range, that is all bullish
consolidation implying that we will be
going higher even though there's no
chance of Fed rate hikes. It looks like
the market may be pricing in at least a
higher 10-year yield in the near term.
Right now we're not out of
consolidation. We're still in this
range. So not too much new to report on
the 10-year today even with that CPI
coming in or PPI coming in
about as expected to a little bit softer
than expected. Next up guys into gold.
You would think with the 10-year yield
pulling back we should also see gold
pushing up higher, but both gold and
silver did not do that today. They did
initially, but then end of the day as we
see here back down in the consolidation
mode. So nothing new on gold for today.
I would have anticipated gold to go up
higher. It didn't do that. However, it's
already had a very nice push the
previous several trading days. So makes
sense put in some consolidation build
the momentum on top of this previous
resistance for a move up to the next
level of resistance at 4575 on the
charts. Next up silver very similar
situation putting in nice bullish
consolidation. One thing I'm noticing
though a lot of wicks developing on the
top of these daily candles. So that
tells me there are sellers every time
price of silver does poke up above the
$66.30
mark. So we'll see if that level will
still remain under pressure in the near
future more consolidation will erode
that selling pressure. So that's what
you want to see as a bull here on silver
maintain this bullish consolidation so
it can push through and tag the next
level of resistance at $67.99.
Next up US oil guys following this
declining trend line much like I brought
to your attention over here on Tuesday.
Now when we came up Tuesday, we just hit
it and since then look at this
consolidating implying it's trying to
coil like a spring, build momentum for a
breakout. Now, today though, the high
did not test this declining trend line
at 83.47. Instead, we got up to $83.30.
Very close, but still if you're a bull
on oil, you want to see price really hug
this declining trend line before it then
breaks above that declining trend line.
Still within the range of a breakout. If
we start trading down lower down here
near these pivot 78.20 or even near this
low pivot 74.38,
then obviously we're not going to be as
on the warning track for a potential
breakout any day. But guys, it could
happen as early as tomorrow with US oil
pushing up and that likely won't help
the case for the 10-year yield to come
back in. But regardless, that's where we
sit on the chart of oil. Next support
down here 78.48. Near-term resistance
right here on this trend line for a
breakout at 83.13.
Next up, nat gas. Nat gas is the widow
maker, guys. Little bit of whiplash
action going previous 3 days, nice push
up and bullish
consolidation forming. Today, we just
retested the support at $2.75.
Maintaining above it though now at
$2.70.
All in all, still decent consolidation.
We'll see if nat gas can finish the day
tomorrow back near the upper range of
today's price action at $2.83.
Next up into Bitcoin. You notice and see
what's happening here on the chart of
Bitcoin. Bitcoin is trying to save
itself from breaking down from this
inclining trend line that you see on the
chart today. Looking like we're going to
put in a daily close underneath that
trend line and yesterday was in essence
right on that trend line. So slowly
drifting further away from right here,
the entry into the parallel channel and
also this trend line, the neckline of
the potential inverse head and shoulders
pattern. If you're a bull on Bitcoin,
you want to see price get up to this
neckline ASAP and break to go through as
that will trigger some bullish momentum
pushing stock price or pardon me, the
Bitcoin price up to $72 to $74,000.
Until that happens, we're going to be
analyzing how and where price closes
down here near this range as far as a
potential breakdown from that inverse
head and shoulder pattern. So, it's on
the cusp of a breakdown, not fully there
yet, but at least it is hanging on by a
thread. Next up, we'll get into some
movers on the day. Look at NET, N E T,
up 6.22%
on the day, but I bring this to your
attention to show you this larger
inclining parallel channel cuz really
NET has been on an upward trajectory
ever since this April low. A very nice
push on NET, pushing up over 100% on the
chart. One may ask, where is this going
to stop? And guys, with the parallel
channel, this does give us some really
good insight as to the next key level of
resistance for NET. One place in which
we could see a 10 to 20% pullback is if
we continue to jam straight up into this
inclining top portion of the parallel
channel just above $350,
at $352.
That should be a big break point on the
chart where profit takers come in, and
as I said, could push the price down 10
to 20% back down to these pivot highs
that occurred just the other day on
August 7th. So, be mindful of that NET,
no doubt about it, overbought near term
on the daily, on the weekly, also
overbought near term, being in due for
some profit taking and a little bit of
pullback. Next up, guys, into SpaceX.
Now, I refrain from bringing this chart
up many times because we just don't have
a lot of data on it, and you know, but
it is still a fun stock to watch, a lot
of interest in it, a lot of even retail
investors have at least picked up a
piece of SpaceX. So, it makes it fun to
cover, and plus, it's had one heck of a
run the last week and a half. So, let's
look at this chart. Where did price run
into yesterday? Matter of fact, it did
it about 10 to 30 minutes before we
started this show here on Trading the
Close. We ran straight into the low
pivot from when price action first
became publicly available to trade here
on June 12th. You see that low pivot was
at $149.34.
Where did the high go yesterday? It went
straight up to 149.60.
About 26 cents of piercing at that trend
line and then guys we just fell straight
back down. Now, the good thing here for
SpaceX, these last four trading days are
all trading in this upper range above
$133.
If you're a bull on SpaceX after tagging
this key level of resistance, you want
to see more consolidation take place
right here. That way you can build the
momentum to break through this trend
line. And if we do that, then we're
headed up to $172.
So, we've got a big threshold right here
for SpaceX to potentially be going
higher. Now, keep in mind, there's a lot
of pre-IPO investors that have picked up
SpaceX from the price of $135 and under.
I'm talking like down to $7, $15. And
we're they're not just, you know, small
purchases. These are billions, if not
trillions of dollars that have been
invested at these levels. But, the
biggest one that is closest to current
price is at $135.
So, anytime price is above this level,
just be clear to understand that there
could be some of those pre-IPO investors
taking some profit or at least trimming
some of their position off the table.
Now, on the other side, JP Morgan as
well as Morgan Stanley have both offered
SpaceX a serious potential lift with
analyst upgrades upwards of $300, guys.
They've got ranges of about 225 upwards
with Morgan Stanley at $300. That would
put at $300 SpaceX at a $4 trillion
market cap. And maybe that comes in in
several years, but that at least
provided some extra juice for price on
SpaceX to elevate the way it has over
this past week. So, very interesting
action that's going on over in SpaceX.
Speaking of JPM, guys, look at this
chart on JPM. Let me back up to the
weekly time frame to really give you
guys a full grasp as to what's going on
on this chart. We see JPM started in
this inclining parallel all the way back
here in October of 2023. And now we find
ourselves at the top of this parallel
channel. Not only do we find ourselves
at the top of the parallel, but we're
also overbought. Both of those things
imply JPM likely is due to cool off and
have some sort of pullback back here at
the top of the charts. First stop would
be the previous all-time high at
$337.14,
but notice I've also got an inclining
trend line on the chart, one of which
likely will provide a bounce if we
plunge straight through that high and
come right back down near that 50% area
the parallel. The trend line just
outside that parallel is at $322.
Next up, look at this move on Workday,
guys. Up 17%
on the day, but mainly look at what
happened over here. This all really
started at 2:30 in the afternoon.
Incredible. This wasn't the only stock
that had that sort of move. Look at Team
also popped up. Now also popped up.
Adobe also popped up. My goodness, what
was going on? It was like the beginning
of uh
a market open day right here at 9:30 in
the morning and reaction occurred. But
guys, this was 2:30 in the afternoon.
So, it really all comes back down to
Workday that did float out news. Now,
neither uh party has commented, but you
see it right down here. Silver Lake is
reportedly in talks to buy out Workday.
Well, that just surged investors. The
algos triggered, pushing money back into
uh software stocks like I just showed
you And and Workday surged up the
charts. I since this was involved in a
buyout, I wasn't looking to trade this
in the afternoon. Instead, I was looking
at team and man, I wish I looked at this
chart a little bit better because once I
did, I found this declining trend line
that we had on the chart and I'd already
drawn it about this distance, but I
already had this from a pivot high back
in December of 2024 connected over to a
pivot high here in May of 2025 and bam,
that's exactly where price put on the
brakes on this incredible rally today
basically just under $225
and then retreated all the way back down
here to 206. So, killer resistance right
here and likely tells me too in the
coming days even with the potential
floated buyout offer, this level will be
a serious level of contention. Now, if
we get through that, then this is the
destination of where this price action
is going. This inclining trend line,
price broke down and has not yet
retraced from this break down. So, that
tells me Workday has its eyes set on
$235.97.
Got to get through 225 first and then we
should make a bee line right up there to
236, but great move on the chart of
Workday. Lastly, guys, we've got
earnings after the bell today to catch
AMAT. Now, over 90% of the S&P 500 has
already reported for this earning
season. So, we still have some other
stragglers left to report, one of which
AMAT we see here dropping down ever so
slightly. Now, a swing level on AMAT is
going to be at the bottom of this
parallel. You can see this is hit once
and hit twice. That means the third hit
is going to be a very high probability
bounce location on the chart. That area
is around $464.80.
Now, let's get into some after hours
pricing action and see where price
extended to and it did push all the way
down here to 501 on the charts and AMAT
may not be done. We'll see where this
price action leads us tomorrow, but we
at least did kiss that psychological
$500 level after hours. We'll see if
that bleeds into tomorrow and
potentially have even a day trade or
maybe potential start of a swing trade
setup down here at the bottom of this
parallel channel.
All right, guys. Thank you so much for
watching and tuning in. Let me ask you
one more favor. We got Crypto Combat
coming tomorrow at 1:30. You may say,
"What is that?" That is one of our fun
entertaining shows 1:30 live in the
afternoon tomorrow. Find it right here
on our homepage. What we do, we battle
it out two or three traders, see who can
get wrecked or rich using wild levers
200 to 300 X and seeing if we can't make
a big score in about 30 to 45 minutes of
trading. Really fun when we micromanage
technical analysis and kind of put it
all in to see if we can't make a win.
Love to have you join us there. If you
can't make it, guys, make sure you come
back next week on Monday. We should have
some great things to go over here on
Trading the Close. Until then, have a
fantastic weekend and I'll see you next
time on the charts, guys. Take care,
everybody.