The Weekly Wrap-up | August 14, 2026

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that count, wrapped up
with clarity [music] and precision. This
is weekly wrap up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey everybody, welcome to the Friday
weekly wrap up. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com. Now, today was a
fascinating day in the markets, mainly
because we started out with a rally and
we saw the markets fading overall. Now,
the interesting factor of today, the
main culprit, was yields going up.
Yields, another term for interest rates.
So, we know, and this is very intriguing
again, that interest rates, or at least
the chance of a Fed rate hike in
September, is now pretty much off the
table, yet interest rates continue to go
up. Now, why is that so scary? Because
it shows that the Federal Reserve is
becoming a lame duck. Now, you might
say, "Well, how does he mean that?" I
mean that, even though the Fed isn't
going to raise rates, rates are still
going up on the 10-year, on the 30-year,
on the 20-year, they are still going
higher. And this shows that the market
will do whatever the heck it wants,
irregardless of the Federal Reserve. And
that's something that, if it continues,
right now it's not freaking the markets
out, but if that continues, and we have
a lame duck Federal Reserve, meaning
they have no power, that eventually will
create a crisis of confidence and create
a massive collapse. So, again,
I don't want to talk about it in a way
that it's happening right now, like
we're going to see a collapse, cuz I
actually am bullish on the S&P. I still
think the S&P is going to go higher in
the near term, probably up till about at
least the elections in November, maybe
even through year end, but it's a
breadcrumb
that is telling us that something bad is
going to happen, possibly as early as
2027.
Keep it in mind, guys. All right, let's
talk about the S&P 500 real quick.
Here's your S&P 10-minute chart. What we
can see is that we opened the day
fractionally higher right here.
Remember, each candle here is 10 minutes
long, so throughout the early morning
period of trading, we were kind of
neutral to positive. Then, the markets
faded into lunch and went sideways the
rest of the day. Again, like I said,
what was the main culprit? Look at the
10-year yield. 10-year yield almost back
to 4.7%. Now, like I said, in normal
market conditions, when you see the Fed
Watch Tool starting to price out a a Fed
rate hike in September, in other words,
they're not going to hike,
then yields should actually fall because
of that.
The mere fact that they're not
is, again, like I said, of big concern,
not immediate, like it's happening
today, like there's going to be a
collapse today, there isn't, but it is,
again, something we have to keep on our
radar or our bingo card. Now, like I
said, we saw the 10-year going up, but
look at the 30-year here, guys. The
30-year yield is at levels, if we zoom
out on the chart here, we are at levels
that we have not been at on the 30-year
bond or yield of the 30-year bond since
2007.
Interestingly enough, just before the
financial collapse, just before the
Great Recession. Again, is that an omen?
I don't know.
But, it is interesting, and remember,
back in 2007, what do you guys think the
US debt was?
And I'll tell you one thing, we just hit
40 trillion, it was way less than that.
I believe it was in the $17 trillion
range. And so, yields at the current
level
are much more damaging than they were
back then. So again, you might say,
"Okay, we're back to where we were in
2007." But on a basis of what it's
costing the US in interest payments, it
is
massively bigger and therefore more
hurtful for where that money could go.
Remember, instead of paying interest, if
you could take that trillion dollars a
year, you could literally take that
trillion that the US government's now
paying in interest, think about how many
problems I mean you could give universal
health care, you could do all the I mean
you could solve you could cut taxes
massively.
But of course, our government says,
"Nah, we're just going to spend without
any sort of guardrails." And that again
will come back to roost. Unfortunately,
you, me, and every citizen here and
probably globally are going to pay the
price for that later on. Unfortunately,
it is part of it is what it is at this
point.
Excuse me. All we can do is prepare and
know what's coming. All right. So that's
where we are here. Again, the 10 30-year
yield is again at at breakout mode. It's
actually broken out, which is not a good
sign for what is to come. The dollar
today, look at this, it broke a key
trend line. We'll see if it holds below.
What's also unique about this is
generally when yields go up, the dollar
goes up. What we're seeing is yields
going up and the dollar going down. That
shows a lack of confidence. Think about
what this means. Dollar going down means
people don't want to hold the dollar. So
globally they're selling dollars. Yields
going up means that they don't love
buying bonds of the US. What they're
doing is they're demanding a higher
interest rate. They're saying, "All
right, if I'm going to buy a 30-year
bond from the US government to be
compensated for the risk that I'm taking
because I probably won't get paid back
because the government may go bankrupt
in the next 30 years, I need to be paid
a higher interest rate. That's really
the essence of it. It's kind of freaky.
It's honestly scary stuff. It is at the
very infancy here, but it will continue
to mushroom out, and that is a major
concern of mine. All right. Let's look
go to some stocks here, guys. Apple
today, we can see Apple didn't do a
whole lot. The big reason for me
bringing up this chart is mainly to note
that you're starting to make a bear flag
on Apple here, going sideways after this
drop. That would tell me that there is a
chance of further downside. When we
chart this out, I think one of the
fascinating factors here is this
trendline here that marked the top on
Apple. So, what we could see here, guys,
again, very cleanly, low pivot, low
pivot here. We did pierce it briefly,
then reestablished, hit it again,
broke down, retraced, and then we came
up right there. Also got a daily topping
tail, and that was the top. If you know
how to read charts, it was all over this
chart that it was going to decline, and
man-oh-man, did it ever decline there to
the downside. Now, it's making a bear
flag, which tells me it's likely going
lower. Where would our first stop of
support be? Well, you have this one
right here. That'll be a little bit of
support, and then the longer-term level,
this would be target number two. So,
target number one is around 294, target
number two is 275
to the downside if that bear flag breaks
like it should. Tesla.
Tesla's a fascinating one. All right.
So, we look at the chart on Tesla, and
what do we have here? We have a
descending trendline, where if you
bought anytime it hit over the last
three hits, you would have been very,
very well, as long as you took profits
on the move up. You can see very clearly
again right there, off of this level
right there, and once again, off of that
level there. Now, in the near term, what
are we seeing here? Well,
number one, you can see here, let me
just clean up the chart here. If we zoom
in on this, we have this high and look
at where we closed today, right on that
level. If we can establish ourselves
above this, then you likely will go and
fill the gap up at 374.
If it can't reestablish above this line,
the odds favor a fade back down to this
line. What would we do at that line?
Well, listen. I mean, we're not trying
to reinvent the wheel here, right, guys?
All we would do is say, well, it hit
there and bounced, hit there and
bounced, hit there and bounced. So, if
it comes back here, I likely would be a
buyer of Tesla expecting a solid bounce.
Again, Amazon. Look at the beautiful
parallel here. I mean, again, the charts
are just awesome. Just gets me excited
every time I do charting and show you
guys this stuff. Notice what happened?
We hit here, we sold off. We hit here,
we sold off. It's just again, hit here,
sold off. Here, you missed it by a
fraction, you still sold off. But again,
like I said, we're not trying to
reinvent the wheel. We're just using the
charts to our advantage to put
probability in our favor. And if you had
sold it there, there it comes down. Now,
as it comes down, you can see you're
getting to this low of this that's right
there. There is some support. If it
breaks, this becomes your next support,
but there is a gap fill here at 235.
That would be my level to maybe think
about swing trading long. But you know
what? I might also say maybe just start
a position here, but really here. This
is proven, right? We have proof here.
Boom. There's a smaller move there.
There's a bigger move there, etc. Even
off of there. So, we can just use these
charts to guide us. One of the things
that I love about charts is that when
you follow them, it's almost like
keeping the handcuffs on us as
investors. So, when we look at a chart,
what's our first reaction? I got to get
in. Oh my goodness, it's going to run
without me. I'm going to miss out. FOMO,
right? Or FUD, right? Fear.
Um when you have a chart structure,
it gives you the ability to look at it
more logically and say, "Okay, I'm going
to wait patiently, let it come to me."
And again, it's not Listen, it's still
hard cuz emotion is still bubbling.
You're like, "Oh my god, but what if it
doesn't get to that level?" I mean,
listen, I've gone through every emotion
in the book just like you guys. But,
once you see how well the charts work,
not that they work 100% of the time,
let's be fair,
but they work most of the time, it's
like, "Well, why wouldn't I wait for
that level?" And if I miss it, there's
another chart coming around the corner.
And I think that's the beautiful thing
to remind ourselves is that
I miss trades every day. Heck, in the
day trading room today, I missed like
three. They came within pennies of my
level and I missed them. It's not about
the ones you miss because there's always
another one. It's the ones you get, and
do those then pay out? And again, I'll
miss 10 trades if I can nail one or two
that make me $10,000. Boom. 10,000, I'm
happy with that. That's the kicker. All
right, before we continue, I do just
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And so, it makes it very easy to trust
versus some of the shady stuff in the
crypto markets. All right, let's get
back to the charts here. So, we were
just on Amazon. Let's look Look
Microsoft. Microsoft again with a nice
little pop over the last week or two on
the back of earnings. It did stall out.
This was a short that I took with
members of Smart Money Stocks and ETFs.
Why? It filled the gap and there was
also a Fibonacci level right here, right
there, and it pulled back. Not a big
pullback yet. I actually anticipate a
drop down here. Why would it Why would
this be a level that it would come down
to? Well, number one, we have this pivot
high. So, it broke above it and
therefore retraced into this is also a
gap fill. So, we look for factors,
right? And so, if Microsoft comes back
here, cover the short and then look to
actually probably go long on Microsoft.
Now, what if it doesn't come down here?
Okay, well, then I missed the trade. I'm
okay with that. Like I said, I mean,
literally, we're going to every chart
and every chart I'm going to find a
level where I will play it. The question
is, does it get to my level? And that's
really what it comes down to. Meta,
Meta's just chopping here. Kind of
interesting because maybe it's making a
little bullish consolidation. We'll have
to watch that and see. I'll keep you
guys posted on that. And then Micron,
Micron continuing to bounce today. I
will not think about shorting. Listen, I
nailed a good short from the highs here.
I mean, we talked about this coming down
and crashing down. It really had a
massive drop percentage-wise. Um again,
I even played it long off lows. That was
a 40% drop in the stock. Now, it's
pushing back up. My first level and how
I find my levels, I do my fibs on these
and I basically do your high to your low
and I look at the 618. 618's my spot.
That's a starter position. If it goes
through there, I would add at this gap
fill right up here. So, spot number one,
spot number two, and double top high
pivot double top right there would be
spot number three. All right. So, again,
I actually think that, like I said, the
market, and we can go to the daily chart
of the S&P 500, the market is still
positive. Now, you might say, well, you
know, today with the markets were down.
Why is Gareth saying that it's a
positive market? And I'll tell you why.
Oil was up today.
Yields on the 10-year and the 30-year
went up, so interest rates went up.
Retail sales were weak today. We saw um
the jobs data recently weak. And with
all this, all this negativity, the S&P
is basically stuck at all-time highs.
Even with today's down move, it went
down .17%.
Not even 2/10 of a percent. And so, the
price action for all the negativity
being thrown at the markets right now is
positive. And so, remember we talked
about at the beginning of this weekly
wrap-up about how there were a lot of
things that I see down the line as
causing a catastrophic collapse. But
that's down the line.
Shorter term, at least for now, the
charts are positive and continuing to
look like they want to go up, possibly
as high as 81 to 8200 on the S&P. That's
kind of my target here over the next few
months. Uh it'll be interesting to see
if we get there. If we get there, we
will have then mapped out to a a S&P in
terms of M2 money supply. So, if you
value the S&P based on the money supply,
there's an incredible level, which would
be a pivot parallel from the dot-com
high and the lows from 1982 to the 2009
financial crisis lows. Again, I can show
you that on the chart. In fact, we'll go
to that right now cuz I I think me
telling you is one thing, but if you're
like me, you learn a lot better by
actually looking at the charts, right?
Visuals. I'm a big visual person. Um so,
here we go. So, this is the chart. So,
the S&P divided by M2 money supply. So,
it's taking into account how much
money's in the system. And look at this.
If we rally to this level on up here,
that would essentially equate to 8200 on
the S&P based on my calculations. be off
slightly, but right in there. And that
would literally take into account this
low from 1982 to the financial crisis
low, the dot-com high to that high. If
we get there, that's where I think we
probably are at a major top, like
cataclysmic top. All right, so we'll
keep an eye on it. I mean, that's all we
can do. I'll follow it with you guys in
these weekly wraps and my game plans,
etc. All of that stuff. All right, let's
get into gold, silver, uh oil, and such.
Let's go to gold right now. Gold today,
if we go back to our daily chart and
bring it up, gold had a small up day. Um
early in the week, it was pushing up.
Had the great breakout of the wedge
pattern. It's now stalling out. What I'm
really doing here is just sitting on the
sidelines and watching the pattern
formation. The best traders in the world
are going to be ones that are okay
sitting back, like we talked about
earlier, with discipline, and just
letting the chart tell us what is most
likely. Most of us,
and this includes myself earlier in my
career, and frankly, occasionally now,
too, we want to force our viewpoints on
the market or on the chart, right? It's
like, "No, I'm a bull, so it's got to do
well, right?" I mean, you know, look at
like XRP and some of these. I mean,
there are so many people loved XRP, and
look at where it is. Now, I I
actually like it as a technical chart
down here, 97 cents to a dollar, but the
point is is that it's better to let the
chart tell us. And when we do that, we
become logical, we become more patient
and disciplined, and we have a better
chance of making money. So, that's what
I'm doing here with gold. Simply put,
we're just waiting to see, is it making
a bull flag? Okay, well, then it's a
bull flag for another move up. If it
pulls back, there's technical support
down here around 4,100. If it breaks
that, maybe it goes down to this level
down here. But right now, I have no good
read on this in the near term. Long
term, you guys know.
What is Gareth? Is Gareth a bull gold
long term? You better believe I am. 13 I
still have a third I mean, it's a long
way off, 2029 to 2031, but $13,000
target is where I think this is headed.
And that's partially due to all of these
things we talked about earlier is why
gold is going to do so well. And
in a weird way, I wish gold would was
not going to do so well because it would
tell me that the financial situation of
the US and the world was in better shape
at that point. But, I don't know. Call
me a cynic. Call me I don't know. It's
It's It just doesn't look good. I mean,
you know, all of these things they're
starting to mount slowly and it's it's
like a train that's in slow motion like
you know like a a wreck or a car crash
in slow motion. You're You see what's
happening. There's no way to stop it at
least that I have power to or you have
power to at this point. And it's just
like I see what's going to happen years
down the line. All we can do is just
say, "Okay, how do I prepare for this?"
And that's honestly what I'm here for
you guys for is to try to at least You
listen, you could say Garrison an idiot,
but at least you you won't be able to
say you didn't have warning if it does
happen. All right. Uh silver let's look
at silver real quick here guys as we
finish this out. Silver came into
resistance this week. Look for a
pullback to this white trend line
depending on where it is when it pulls
back. That will be technical support. Uh
crude oil today, crude oil did go up.
So, again, it didn't go up much. I mean,
it was up 1.44%
but that's just another little bit of a
thing saying oil's sticking around this
82-ish level which is higher than where
it should be if the Strait of Hormuz was
open frankly. And again, it's just a
slight pressure on inflation. But again,
based on the weakening economic data,
the Fed I don't think the Fed raises in
September. I mean, I said that even
before we got this latest data. Uh I
just don't see it. So, we'll continue to
watch that. Natural gas today take a
look. Nat gas today didn't do a whole
lot. It was basically down slightly
here. It continues you can see again
support support broke resistance pulled
back more hit resistance pulling back
here. The key here on Nat gas is you got
to break this 283 level. Then it can be
free to make a bigger move. Until then
path of least resistance honestly is
probably back to 258, 257. Lastly,
Bitcoin continues to struggle here. Now
again, you know, there's been headlines
about these potential clarity meetings
like, you know, moving forward even
though Congress is on break until
September, but there's been little like
hopes and and they just keep getting
dashed. And it's just continually
negative on the crypto markets. Now,
having said that, as I've said in
previous videos,
the chart, remember we talked about
earlier on keeping our logic focused and
our data focused versus, you know,
getting dejected about what's going on
there,
I will just say this, is that as long as
we hold this white trend line, I remain
near-term bullish on Bitcoin. I just do.
And that And that's again, it's just it
it's not a matter of choice when you get
to this point. It's like, well, you
broke the trend line. So, even if it
wants to just As long as it wants to
come down here, eventually you should
get that move up. That's what
probability suggests. Now, if it breaks
back below that, that's a different
story. Then, the breakout has failed,
and then the thesis the probability
thesis changes. But until then, I remain
bullish on Bitcoin. All right, I know
it's been a long one, guys, but so much
for me to talk about here. It's been
quite the week. We're going to come into
next week with more economic data, more
earnings data. Granted, it's getting out
of earning season, but there's still
some ones coming up, including in a
couple weeks, Nvidia. You guys know in
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