My Trading Game Plan | August 18, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hype and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same techniques that
made me [music] a multi-millionaire.
This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com
and as always we're going to get into
the charts and data avoiding all the
nonsense, hype and narratives, right?
What are the probabilities? What trade
levels give us the best chance of making
money today? That's what we're going to
take a look at. All right. So right off
the bat futures are down on the S&P 500.
Let's jump into the chart. You can see
again yesterday we kind of had a little
bit of a fade here to the downside and
the selling continued all night. Now we
did see a little bit of a bottom out in
the futures around 3 to 4:00 a.m.
Eastern time. That actually was
coexisting with the pullback in yields.
So just to set the stage here and make
everyone on the same page, the reason
why the markets have been falling is not
that earnings are bad. It's not that
there's major issues somewhere in the
economy. It's simply that the 10-year
yield or interest rate on the 10-year,
the 30-year yield, the interest rate on
the 30-year continue to push up and
overnight they were pushing up
substantially. Ever since about 3:00 in
the morning or so, they've begun to
moderate a little bit. Last I checked
they were still net positive, but that's
what's helped the markets try to bottom
out here in the overnight into the open
today. So the reasoning by the way, just
to be super crystal on this, is that
higher interest rates mean borrowing
money is more expensive.
And that's a major issue for the US
because of our massive 40 trillion in
debt. It also makes it harder for all of
these companies, these AI companies that
are borrowing massive amounts of money
to finance those deals. It makes it more
costly. It makes it more costly to get a
house and get a mortgage, a car loan.
Everything about it is a negative as it
sucks it away. Now again,
why is this happening? Why are yields so
high? And the answer is because the US
government can't get their act together
to actually stop spending money
willy-nilly, and now we're all starting
to pay the price. And listen, you got to
pay the piper, right? I think we all
know this. We all handle our own bills,
our own home system, right, of finance.
And we know that if we don't pay our
bills, our interest rates go up and then
we get it's harder for us to get a loan.
And the same thing goes for the
government. Now granted, it's the US
government, the biggest player in the
world, but it doesn't mean you're all
immune forever from the laws of just
honestly common sense. Stuff that you
and I just know. Yet for some reason,
they ignore it there. All right, so
let's get into it again. Futures are
trading lower today. If we flip to the
daily chart, the S&P futures are down
just under half a percent. That's
continuing the fall here from the last
couple days. If we flip over to the S&P
500, we have two major trend lines that
I'm following. This lower one is the
upper band of a parallel. If I zoom out,
this is the parallel that we've
discussed probably for the last 6 to 12
months, frankly. I've been focusing in
on this parallel. Remember this parallel
marked the COVID lows, the bull market
2021 high, bear market low, then the
tariff sell-off low in 2025, the high in
2025 right here.
And then we rolled over. We finally
broke out going up to this trend line
here in yellow. Why is that trend line
significant? Because it continues or
comes from multiple pivots here, high
pivot, high pivot, and high pivot goes
right to this one, and look at how price
has behaved. We hit it right here,
pulled back. We hit it again, and we're
pulling back. So, this is your upper cap
right now. If we break through it, like
I told you many times over in the last
few days, 81 to 8200 is my upside major
resistance target. If we fall, we have
technical support here. So, we're
basically in what we call a a megaphone
pattern. Why a megaphone? Well, we have
wedge patterns, which are two lines that
are basically coming together or
converging, and then you have another
pattern, which is basically two trend
lines that are moving away. And price
still acts the same. The only difference
is price swings are getting more violent
in a megaphone versus in a wedge
pattern, they're getting tighter and
tighter and tighter. Okay? So, that's
the difference maker right there. Right
now, you can see this is diverging from
the white trend line. Therefore, our
resistance is getting higher. Our
support is actually still getting higher
as well, but at a slower rate than the
upper trend line. Therefore, they are
both diverging trend lines. All right.
So, that's just a little run down on a
little technical analysis know-how to be
able to tell what you're looking at. But
when it comes down to what you and I
care about, let's be honest, I care
about do we break the upper line? Do we
break the lower line? Which one of those
happens? And whichever one happens,
we're going to likely get the bigger
move in that situation. If we break the
upper one, 81 8200 is probably a pretty
good bet at that point on the S&P. And
by the way, that's only about 5 to 6%
higher from these levels. So, it's not
like a massive move up. And then on the
downside, if we come down to that 7350
on the S&P 500 and break, that would be
the bigger concern to me. That would
tell me something is majorly wrong. All
right. So, that's the S&P chart here.
The dollar today remains below this
level. We talked about this yesterday,
how the dollar breaking down while
yields is going up is not generally what
happens in normal scenarios because
normal scenarios yields go up when the
economy is strong and the Fed is going
to tighten rates and the dollar usually
goes up because the Fed's tightening
rates and the money supply is shrinking.
In this situation, it's telling you the
dollar going down, loss of confidence in
the dollar, in the fiat system, interest
rates going up, loss of confidence in
the US government really ever paying you
back in 30 years on a 30-year bond. And
that's that's again not a good place to
be. And I want to be clear,
we're not at a cataclysmic break yet.
This is a I think about it like a, you
know, something in slow motion. It's a
train wreck in slow motion. So, we all
see it happening, but the train is
wobbling. It's not off the rails yet.
This would be the wobbling, right? And
the wobbling can take a while, then it
gets off the rails, then it's off the
rails, but it's still going, and then
finally down the line, we get the
absolute crash scenario, which kind of
you know, scary enough, it locks in with
my 100-year cycle for the Great
Depression, right? And that's again
something that I really hope doesn't
happen, you know, um
you know, none of us want that, right?
It it's not something that's going to be
good for anyone,
but do I need to know that my family and
I are prepared, that I've prepared
people that have watched me? Hopefully,
we prepare and never have to do it.
That's the whole idea. But if it does
happen,
I want to be in a better position and I
want you guys to be in a better
position. Okay, so that's where we are.
The 30-year yield, you can see, was up
as high as 5.337
this morning. Incredible. It has backed
off, which is good. If this continues,
if this were to fall today, you could
see the stock market starting to gain
traction and starting to rally back up.
But this right now, yields are still up
net on the day and that is a concern.
Don't forget, we are at yields right now
that literally you have to go back to 20
2007
before the financial crisis crisis the
last time that was there. 10-year yields
kind of in the same boat here.
If we look at the 10-year yield, the
10-year yield is fractionally higher
today. If we go to the daily chart, but
it is off of its highs. You do have this
little bit of bullish consolidation
here, which is a little concerning.
Right? Because again, if you're
consolidating, does that tell us we're
going to get another leg up on the
10-year yield? And that again would put
more pressure if the markets do that. So
we'll watch that very closely. All
right. Now, what I want to do is is
rotate here. So, we're going to rotate
from the biggest economic drivers and
before I do that, I want to mention
today at 2:00 p.m. we have the Fed
minutes. So, the Fed minutes are from
the last meeting that they had. It gives
us a little bit more detail on what was
discussed in that meeting. Now, we know
we had three dissenters that wanted to
raise rates. I want to see in those
minutes were they kind of lukewarm
dissenters or were they serious? Were
any other players kind of on the
borderline because that could force a
rate hike here. And what's in even more
interesting is that like I said
yesterday, the Fed is losing control.
Even if the Fed doesn't hike rates, look
at what rates are doing. They're going
up anyways. The market's saying, "Who
cares about the Fed? We're going to have
rates go higher." And that's something
we have to be aware of is that the
market is ultimately in charge. Yes, the
Fed is kind of the the sheep herder, if
you will, kind of trying to keep
everyone in a group, trying to keep
things organized and stable. But at some
point, if the wolf appears, those sheep
are scattering regardless. That's what's
going to happen, right? All right. So,
let's go on to a couple stocks here.
Baidu is getting crushed on earnings
today. This is a Chinese ADR, um and you
can see again, it is down sharply. I am
starting to eye this as a potential
bounce candidate. There's a lot of good
support in this 92
to basically there's a gap fill at 91
area, and we are very close to that. You
can see all these pivot points right in
here, then we backed off, came up into
that, backed off again, and then you had
a gap, and then you started your bigger
bullish breakout. So, that's something I
am keeping my eyes on on Baidu today for
a potential day trade. I honestly almost
like it as a swing trade at these levels
as well, because again, if you go back,
I mean, you can see that you're
essentially coming back into levels that
have marked the lows for years and years
and years. And so, this one does get my
attention. Usually, we just go over day
trades with maybe a swing trade level.
Today, this one is getting interesting.
I I still think it could go I mean,
listen, it could go down here, here. And
so, it could go lower, but it's getting
into a realm where it starts to make
sense on a swing trade basis. Now,
earnings-wise, did they miss earnings
and miss revenue? Yes, they did. But in
all fairness, we know China is a mess
right now.
Um the housing collapse that has
occurred, remember? The government
intervened, and they
overbuilt in real estate, which
there was a massive amount of money
being spent from the government to
stimulate to build out this real estate.
Well, guess what? What happens when the
government's metal and that goes right
here for the US? It creates a bubble.
And then we all know what happens to
bubbles, they burst. And so that's
what's happened over there. Their whole
real estate system has they they it's
collapsed. It's worse than 2008-2009
in the US because they did even much
more stimulus on building uh these
buildings. And I remember back years
ago, I was looking and doing research
and they literally built cities that no
one lived in or just like a few people
lived in. And and that just shows you to
the extent. But with the massive
expansion, what do we know? It has to
have a contraction. And contractions,
the more you expand, the more you
contract. And so
that is their economy is suffering. Now
again, if you're going to invest in
China, you probably go with best of
breed, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, those
type of names like this one as well. But
just something to keep an eye on there
overall. Next up we have Home Depot.
Home Depot is fractionally higher on
earnings this morning. The company did
okay, pretty good. One of the things
catching my eye is this bigger parallel
on it. Now again, maybe it can break
out, but until it can get through this
355 down sloping trend line of the
parallel, this would be noted as
resistance. And right now it's $10 below
that level. It's not really a big enough
move. I mean, if you look at yesterday,
it closed around 338. Today it's trading
at 345. So that's about a $7 move on a
$300 stock, $350 stock. It is not a big
enough move yet to get me interested in
a trade. The 355 level I might consider
a day trade short. That would be that
descending trend line. But right now I'm
just sitting on the sidelines for the
time being. Now,
yesterday we saw big moves up in
SanDisk, Micron. Look at these stocks
today collapsing right back down, really
remarkable. Yesterday SanDisk closed at
16, what did it close at? At 17, let's
see here, 1787
it closed at. Look at the rally the last
few days. So, it is down $110
this morning in the pre-market. So,
again, that is a nasty sell-off, but for
me as a day trader, that is something
that gets my attention. I say, "Okay,
well, if it falls more, where are we
going to get support?" And first
support, there's a gap fill right here.
Only as a day trade at 1640, there could
be a trade there. Then, there's another
gap fill here at 1530 that could also be
an opportunity. So, I'll be watching
this along with the other semiconductors
today quite closely to see what is
moving and shaking. All right. Now,
let's pivot into
what we obviously want to look at is
gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin. And
remember, oil yesterday did go up. It
did add pressure to the markets. In all
fairness, it probably added pressure to
yields as well because oil going up
means inflation is likely going to go
up, too. Um and really what we had was
just more threats going back and forth
about the Strait of Hormuz, the US
threatening to bomb Om- Oman because
they might be doing a deal to open the
strait with uh Iran. I mean, it's just
it's a whole mess. Um
I still don't think it amounts to
anything based on the midterms coming
up. We're not going to get into another
Well, I shouldn't say we're not, but
probability suggests
that we won't be getting into another uh
conflict ahead of the midterms. I would
highly doubt it. Uh but either way, if
we look at oil today, oil is slightly
lower on the day, closing up here, down
just fractionally. We're still stuck in
our wedge pattern, and until proven
otherwise, that tells me it is range
bound. Okay? Um so, again, we'll keep an
eye on that one there. Natural gas today
up fractionally. Yesterday, I liked the
price action how it rallied off the
lows, but either way, unless it breaks
above 283, there's no breakout here.
It's just a whole lot of sideways chop
chop shop as we call it in the trading
world.
Gold pulling back had a nice day
yesterday. Today it is pulling back just
slightly. Really nothing new on gold,
but one of the things we do want to
watch is are we starting to get bullish
consolidation here. If that's the case,
it could set us up for a move to the
upside. So again, I'm just watching the
next few days on gold to see how it
behaves and silver once again getting
rejected off this longer term trend line
here and you could see this was a wedge
pattern broke retraced rejected and then
it broke this first trend line, but ran
right into a brick wall here at the
second trend line and so far it's
stalled out there. Now this could also
be making a bull flag though, right?
Here's your flag pole. Here's your tight
band of consolidation. So maybe it's
setting up to break out. We don't have
enough data on that yet to put numbers
on it, but that is something I will keep
a close eye on. Then lastly Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is pulling back today, but great
move yesterday. Um remember Bitcoin did
break out. So while it hasn't had a
meteoric
run to the upside, yesterday was pretty
solid. But again, it broke out here
consolidated kind of what I what I call
charging the battery. So it it took a
lot of energy to get through this line.
Charges charges charges the battery,
then it starts to make a move. What you
want to see today is a small down day
like today or a flat day.
Um you don't want to see a big down day.
So a big down day would essentially
negate the energy that it took to put
yesterday's green solid bar in. Uh if it
gets a pause day a small down day,
that's okay. That's that's it's it's re
regenerating. It's it's energizing up
again, but again, I would like to see
ideally a close around 64,000 today or
above. That would be the best-case
scenario. Doesn't have to do that, but
that would be the most bullish type of
close that we could get above 64. Right
now, it's just fractionally above 64,000
with the small down move. All right,
I've got to get over to my trading room,
guys. So, thank you so much for tuning
in. Every day you guys come back. I love
it that some of you guys say you grab
your coffee and sit down. It's so cool.
Seriously, thank you guys. Um I love
being a staple in that that's one of the
reasons why
I always try to deliver for you guys. Um
as I always say, I'm not always going to
be right, but I'm going to give it my
all and give you guys probabilities. No
personal opinions, no nonsense. The
chart is the chart whether I like it
personally or not. It is what it is. And
it's a rare thing in this day and age
when you have social media and all the
nonsense there, mainstream media and all
the nonsense there, come here to
Verified Investing for charts and data,
no BS. You guys have a great one as
always. Thanks so much for tuning in.
Take care.