Trading The Close | August 25, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and today,
the guys, the market's all lifted up
pretty nicely today. We did have a US
oil and the 10-year yield falling right
ahead of the CPI data that is going to
be released tomorrow morning at 8:30.
So, be anticipating potential volatility
in the markets before the markets open,
but then once the markets are open,
everybody is going to be paying
attention to what happens after hours
tomorrow. Nvidia is going to be
reporting earnings. So, we're going to
look at that chart at the end of the
show today, but we do have a lot of
charts to get through. So, let's jump
into them. First up with the S&P 500.
Not too much new to report. You see it
consolidating over the last four trading
days in a bullish manner down here after
declining from the recent highs up in
the 777 range. So, today we did have an
update though, up 0.32%. We were
negative at one point, but as you see
here, finishing is all that really
matters. And in this case, it's still
compiling more bearish consolidation
activity right above this level of
support that I remind you is the
previous all-time high. Whenever we have
a breakout, I often want to see that
price action retrace to the point in
which it broke out and then price can
move up higher from that point, but in
this situation, we're putting in bearish
consolidation right on top of that level
of support, implying we could actually
be building momentum for further
downside. So, this is a little bit of
um
two-ways signal that is showing here on
the chart. We're expecting a bounce, but
starting to hit the brakes before the
level in which place we should bounce.
So, we'll be watching this very closely
in the coming days, specifically if
price moves slowly into this area, I
anticipate it to actually pierce and go
underneath. Uh next up with the Qs. Now
the Qs actually had an update today up
0.62% but look at this downward
trajectory that we're in in the Qs. It's
not as clear as a bearish consolidation
that's going on on the S&P 500. More or
less the Qs, the Nasdaq 100, is trying
to find its near-term footing amongst
all of this consolidation. Now near-term
support will be right down here where we
have found support several times in the
past at $695.25.
Still got a decent way to go before we
start talking about that level being
tagged once again. Next up into the SMH.
Now guys, this is the leading indicator
and so this is what I follow more than
any of the other indices as far as
bullish activity or bullish momentum.
Now we were up 1.65% today on the semis.
Very nicely done except for we're not
getting out of this near-term
resistance, the top end of this parallel
channel. Now that level is at $562.59.
Watch that in case Nvidia reports good
earnings. Specifically, this is the
near-term level but there's one just
beyond that that we see here, $568.95.
Clearing
both of those
by the close on Thursday since Nvidia's
reporting after hours Wednesday, that
would be a big sign near-term that we
could be moving higher on the charts.
And I mean all of the other indices as
well and that very well could be the
point in which we've already tagged that
retrace on the S&P 500. So I'm watching
this very very closely. Now yes, this is
resistance because if you notice this
comes from the pivot high to the next
pivot. Notice how we breached this area
just for one trading day back on the
17th of August and have since retreated
back down into the secondary inclining
parallel. So near-term resistance mapped
out right there tomorrow at $562.35
as well as after hours Wednesday into
Thursday's close above 568 and 61 cents.
Next up, 10-year yield. Look at this.
Part of the reason as I said the markets
were pushing up today. Look at that
sharp decline there on the 10-year
yield. There was announcements in the
Middle East regarding lanes have been
cleared for passage, but guys we've
heard this before, right? You know, it's
almost just a broken record. We've heard
it's on again, off again. Once I start
seeing several ships, I'm talking about
20, 30, 50, 100 ships going in and out,
then we could say it's open, but all
this starting and stalling out is really
creating a lot back and forth price
action on the 10-year yield. It's really
quite fascinating. You can see this here
since July 23rd, we've really just been
up and down, up and down, up and down.
Well, what does that create? That
creates consolidation. That implies
we're going to try to go higher. Talking
about 4.809%.
We've got Jackson Hole coming on Friday.
Walsh could give us some insight as to
what he's seen regarding potential
direction of the 10-year yield moving in
the future as well as inflation updates,
too. Speaking of which, again I remind
you CPE tomorrow morning at 8:30 at all.
A lot of the volatility is all
surrounding what's going on with the
10-year, what's going on with US oil.
Now, we find today in gold. Gold did
push up ever so slightly still staying
within yesterday's trading action.
Notice the last four trading days
though, we've had a really nice push up
and then these last four candles appear
to be stalling out a little bit. Notice
how clean the last break was when we
came above this previous level of
resistance at $4,333.
We did it and we stair-stepped. We put
in a bull flag. This is just kind of
drifting to the upside, which generally
results in a drift back down to the
downside. So, if that does start
happening in the coming days, support
here at $4,575
and 31 cents. Next area of resistance,
if we continue to drift, is up here
$4,770.
Uh next up we've got silver. Notice how
cleaner of a staircase step-up this is
becoming on the chart of silver. Nice
stair step here. Now putting in an
additional level of stair stepping, but
the one thing here, we just don't want
to have price get too close to the
levels of support. Today, we actually
pierced this level at $67.99.
And you could see we're closing up right
near where yesterday's price action
closed. See how we had decent separation
between this consolidation before price
retested the level and then went to the
next one up above. You want to see
something similar. Get some
consolidation up here in the $70 range,
and then that way we can use this level
of support as a springboard to catapult
this price on silver up to the next
resistance at 7207.
The more that we chop on a support
level, the weaker it becomes, the more
likely it can break and come back down
and test this next level. That's why
silver bulls, you want to see price get
up to 70 bucks and do so pretty soon,
and then start chopping sideways. Next
up into US oil. Guys, what did we call
on STX? Let's just rewind the clock on
that. We I just called this yesterday. I
said, "Guys, we likely are due for a
bounce because this is a breakout
retrace test to the scene of the crime
where it broke out from and then bounced
up." And I said, "Likely we're going to
get as high as this inclining trend line
tomorrow." And guys, that's basically
exactly what happened. Now, we go back
over to the chart of US oil, and US oil,
as we see here, is doing the same thing.
We had a breakout retrace, and look at
the wicks today got down right into
price action on this trend line at
$80.39.
We should be due for a bounce in oil,
which tells me there likely should be
some sort of conflict arise within the
next day or two. Now, I know that's
somewhat morbid, if you would, but I
mean it's in the chart. We had a
breakout and we had a retrace, so we
should have some sort of increase in the
cost of US oil, specifically within the
next day or two. So, that's what I'm
anticipating. We'll see if this ends up
failing as far as a breakout retest
bounce play, but this is all the
hallmark of everything we see in this
show, and we've gone over it, guys. I
don't even know how many times over the
last couple years. Maybe maybe 600,
1,000. I you know, I don't know, but
this this sort of play is so dependable.
We should see oil lift up, likely
tomorrow to 83.49, put in a little $3
gain at some point. We'll see if that
ends up being the case.
Uh next up, we got nat gas. Really not
too much new to report here. It's up
1.13% maintaining this bullish
consolidation. Near-term resistance,
same thing, $2.90. Need to beat that,
and then we're going to be headed higher
on the chart of nat gas up to $3.27.
Uh Bitcoin also similar. Not too much
new to report except for it also is
looking a little bit exhausted up here.
This huge move to the measured move
target at 76,000. Look at these three
candles accelerating through here, and
then the following four days we've all
been trading and closing within the
upper range of this candle here from
Friday of last week. So, it's telling me
buyers are still here, but there's also
an equal amount of sellers, and there
could be a great reason why. There's a
lot actually, but if you look here at
this uh low pivot back here on November
21st, just draw this all the way across
horizontally on your chart. You can
cleanly see you run up into resistance,
a run up into resistance. Now, for
bulls, what would be really, really
nice,
you maintain price above this measured
move, $76,116.
That would create a bull flag on the
chart, and the more and more we hit this
level of resistance near-term just above
80,000, that will weaken it and allow
the price to then move up to the next
level up here sub $90,000 at $88,000.
But that's a major reason why price is
hitting on the brakes on Bitcoin at
least for right now. And something that
did not hit the brakes today, in fact,
did not have any sort of emergency brake
was Dick's Sporting Goods. And my gosh,
guys, look at this move after earnings.
A nasty 30% decline. I'll be I'll admit
I was in a victim on on the day trading
room today, lost about 2% because this
stock just didn't want to bounce. Now,
what I found too on this stock, look at
the weekly time frame. If we we wind the
time back to August of 2023, 3 years
ago, we almost had an identical move
after earnings. 29% drop here. Look at
what happened the following weekly
trading candles. After the weekly close
after earnings, we actually ended up
dropping another 10%. Now, we did have
about a week recovery effort, but then
we dropped 10% and then ripped higher on
the charts pushing up over 150%
on the charts. Now, when we have a big
sell on a chart like this, this is the
50% retrace from the COVID lows, guys.
Now, generally this area coming down
with the sharp nature is going to
generate a very very quick sharp bounce
back up. But this today is acting like a
spider web or trampoline absorbing the
sell right through this level of
support. Very well could see a bounce in
the coming days, come back up and test
this level at 13403.
And then from that point, we may have
further selling to go, much like what
happened back in October of 2023. If
that happens, the next key level of
support's down here at 10557.
And that is also a fib retrace. That
happens to be the 618 fib retrace, but
once all of the selling pressure is
over, I'm not saying Dicks is going to
go up 152%.
However, look at the destination. If you
just draw a simple parallel channel on
your chart connected over with pivot
high to pivot high, and then I connect
over with this pivot low. Once we get
traction with Dicks, because what was
pulling this down was really the efforts
for Foot Locker. Now, DKS acquired Foot
Locker recently, and what was expected
to be an ex accelerant helping it push
up the charts and and gaining more
market share in the footwear department,
it didn't do that. It's weighing down.
It's becoming a lead weight around its
neck and they're costing them more
money, pushing them into the red. So, if
they don't rectify this Foot Locker
problem soon, we certainly could be
testing the 105.57, but once that is
rectified, I anticipate price to come
back up and attack this bottom portion
of the parallel channel. Because what
happens when price breaks major trend
lines? It likes to find support and then
head right back up and hit the bottom of
that declining parallel channel. We've
seen it happen on STX. We've seen it
happen on now US oil. We've seen it
happen on Guys, I can't even name all
the charts. It's just so many to name,
but a big fall like that, guys, we're
too Look at the RSI weekly 24.67.
Last time it was that low, the COVID
lows. Then flip on the volume, too,
guys. This volume sticking out like a
sore thumb, getting almost as high
volume as this major pivot low that was
placed here in 2022. So, guys, it's all
of the signs are there pointing. Yes,
they are dumping this stock, but there's
also a lot of people jumping in. The
10-minute chart did not show that. Look
at this decline that occurred on this
stock today. It's just really
fascinating to see no solid sustainable
bounces the entire day, just down, down,
and down some more. Tells me they
actually likely still will have selling
pressure in the coming days. This isn't
immediate buy. This is not an immediate
buy. You likely are going to have margin
call issues pushing the pressure on the
price lower, which could present an
awesome opportunity for a stock on a
discount. Daily RSI 15.38. Ouch, guys.
That is some serious decline. Now, on
the other side of the story, up 8.17%
is Hood. Now, what's great about Hood,
guys? You can see this. We've got these
three trend lines drawn.
You can see from this first one, the
declining wedge, we've had price when it
came down to create this pivot that
allowed us to then draw this trend line.
Then when price came back down, look at
the consolidation before the break and
the retest of that trend line. Now, we
see price has broken down from this
trend line, okay? The most recent one
from the pivot low in May of this year.
Price, what is it trying to do? Exactly
what it did right here, guys. It's
trying to come back up and hit this
inclining trend line, the same trend
line that it just broke from, but also
it's got a secondary contending
long-term trend line from pivot to pivot
to pivot. So, we this is going to be a
serious test for Hood in the coming day.
113.44.
Now, if we gap over that, you'll will
find resistance on this inclining trend
line, $115.34.
Notice how that lines up very closely
with a gap fill considering the fact,
too,
um Hood is getting closer to overbought
scenario. It's not quite there, but it's
certainly getting close. And the more it
continues to push, the more of these
levels of resistance will start taking
over and helping this RSI to balance
out. Where I see eventually, once the
price action can get through these areas
and turbulent times in the coming days,
I see Hood doing exactly what it did
over here. It retraced to this inclining
trend line, and beating this will allow
it to retrace to this inclining trend
line. But in if that happens, and
there's a lot of ifs, we've got an
inverse head and shoulders pattern here,
guys. I'll be happy to to mark this
along with you and I
detail that down on a future show, but
that's why this break is so important
for Hood. We've got a lot on the line
here. This is a big inverse head and
shoulders pattern. Something that can
make a move all the way up to the $180
range on the chart of Hood, but it's got
to get through these major levels in the
near future. These levels will help
trigger that inverse head and shoulders
pattern. Next up on Coin, also receiving
the love from the inflow of
cryptocurrencies, much like what's going
on over in Hood. You can see price
action is now consolidating above its
breakout place. Now it did retrace and
kissed that trend line today, but notice
we never confirmed this was the breakout
candle. We never put in any other
further days of an extended move above
that declining trend line, making the
probabilities of a bounce here slightly
than what we would have had if we
confirmed. Nonetheless, we still put in
a great bounce and putting in
consolidation. The more of these daily
closes up here in this range, $184,
$185,
will help Coin build momentum to go up
and attack this next level of resistance
all the way above $200, right around
$213
on this inclining trend line that is
derived, as I'll show you here 1 second,
back from this pivot low back in January
of 2023 and how that held price up on
many attempts to come from the above to
that line and then eventually broke.
Look at that retest. Broke again. Look
at that retest. Broke again. Look at the
retest. Broke again. Consolidated. Now
we're looking for the follow-through
retest of that trend line. As long as
Hood builds that consolidation, that's
looks like where we're going to be
ending up. Uh next up on BE, guys. BE is
in the news today because news broke
that Nancy Pelosi did announce that she
did pick up some BE calls
that do expire in the summer of next
year. Now, it wasn't clear when she did
purchase those calls, but you can see
here from the stock we did all also
reach up 6.58% today. She also did buy
individual shares from what I have read.
However, putting this on your radar,
she's got a pretty good trading track
record. Wonder why? However, that tells
me the next destination for BE is up on
the charts. As you can see here clearly
this yellow horizontal trend line we
have been jammed up there on the most
recent trading action. That's the line
to beat, the line to put a daily close
above that will increase probabilities
for us to move up to the next level. So,
the first one to worry about right here,
$240.97.
Now, next up, let's get into some little
a little bit of education. Now, I know
I've talked a lot about breakout
retraces, breakdown retraces, because
they happen and they happen over and
I've said this already in this show over
and over and over, but guys, let's watch
and check how this works on the chart of
SE. This will help you tame your
emotions, guys. When you see a chart set
up, price is coming into a beautiful
level and you love it and you buy it and
then the rug's pulled right from
underneath you, price slips. This can
and will happen to you eventually. If
you trade long enough, you got to keep
your emotions in check, find the next
support level, understand major trend
lines can be broken, but it gives you
information when that happens because
price generally wants to come back to
that trend line. Much like what has
happened here on the chart of SE. Now,
let's back out on this chart to show you
this inclining parallel channel back
here from the January of 2024 lows.
Notice how we hit the bottom, hit the
top, then came straight down,
consolidated before we broke, and then
look at this nice retrace. Now, if you
were here, much like me, seeing this
huge decline, this could have been a
nice buying opportunity. But then all of
a sudden, whoop, now you're down, not
only from $111,
you're down here to 80. Sub 20% gone
right there with a flash right on your
charts. What do you do? Well, you got to
get a plan together to find the ultimate
destination that's going to occur. Look
at this, remember this on your chart.
Big breakdown, bear flag breakdown, came
down to support, and then up, up, and
away from there, back to retest this
inclining parallel channel, one that
spans several years. Now, the
interesting part now, what's going on
now,
is that you see this horizontal trend
line where price was rejected. Look at
the beautiful day that's occurring
today, pushing back up, angling for
another attack and entry into the bottom
of this parallel channel. Now,
a successful move doing this, getting
above this horizontal channel or a
horizontal trend line, will create a
head and shoulders pattern that will
trigger with a targeted measured move at
the 50% area of this parallel channel
just above $180 at $183.
This is a big move on the horizon. Can
SE get above this neckline right here at
$130.19,
put in two consecutive daily closes with
extension, and that does trigger the
measured move up here to $183. It's
important to trade like a robot. Don't
freak out when your price goes against
you. Be mindful, find another level of
support, rewind the clock back on the
chart without even doing fibs or trend
lines. Look at this, if I just rewind
time, I can see all the way back here.
Look at all these pivots, look at all
this consolidation, and that's exactly
where price put on the brakes when
selling and made another attempt at this
bottom range of the parallel channel.
Very cool stuff there, guys. Keep your
mind in check, that way you'll be on the
right side of the trade on your next one
setup. All right, into Nvidia, guys.
Now, Nvidia, as we've seen here
recently, near term,
uh post a breakout. Now, I'm talk not
talking about a breakout to all-time
highs, but a breakout from this bearish
consolidation that's taken place in the
lower 50% of this parallel channel. You
can see price action broke out there on
August 5th and it's since completely
retraced yesterday, even getting
rejected today right here from that same
pivot point and location
on that horizontal trend line. So, tells
me
either side of the coin can go for
Nvidia. So, upside direction for good
earnings likely will be pressured with
this high range pivot. There's a gap
fill right here 200 225 dollars. To the
downside, we cleanly have the bottom
range of this inclining parallel
channel. And which would spell trouble
for the rest of the AI data center play.
If we get price coming down sub 200
dollars tomorrow after hours, that's not
necessarily going to be the robust SMH
rally nor break above those trend lines
that we highlighted could take place if
Nvidia has a good rally. Now, lastly
into a viewer request for Living
Lending, I do have Carvana on the daily
time frame. Now, you can see Carvana is
staging a breakout. Now, we can see much
like the theme of this show, guys,
breakout, retrace, bounce play in effect
testing the most recent highs on the
initial breakout putting in a daily
close above this candle, which is at uh
876 dollars and 7 cents increases the
probabilities that this breakout will
have staying power and then test the 50%
area of this parallel channel that
coincidentally happens to correspond
right here with these pivot highs that
occurred back in April of this year. So,
make sure and maintain uh a very
specific detailed notes on where price
closes on Carvana specifically tomorrow
on and the following day to see if this
break continued
bounce play has more breakout potential
to push us up to the 50% area of the
parallel channel. All right, guys.
Thanks so much for tuning in and
watching today. Plus, I've got one other
thing to remind you about, guys. We've
got a discount on Smart Money Crypto
with all the influence and money flowing
into the crypto space. Guys, take
advantage of this. This is for new
members only. It goes now through the
end of the week and you can see it
flashed up right here on the bottom of
the screen.
Take a picture of that QR code. SMC20
is your discount to sign up online for
new members of Smart Money Crypto. All
right, guys. That wraps up Trading the
Close. Don't forget to like and
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We look forward to being back tomorrow
with more CPE data as well as Nvidia
earnings. So, we got a big show
tomorrow. Until then, get some rest.
Have a fantastic day. We'll see you
tomorrow on the charts. Take care,
folks.