Investors Fret Over New Tariff Spat, Inflation Data, NVDA Earnings & Jackson Hole

My name is Gareth Soloway [music] and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and [music]
charts beat hype and narratives every
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now, the market is starting off with
some interesting action. S&P futures are
trading slightly lower, gold is pushing
higher, but nearing a key resistance
level on my radar, and Bitcoin is trying
to go back to the highs that were tagged
on Friday. Can it push through the
80,000 level? We'll take a look at that
chart. In addition, we have major movers
in the stock market arena. We'll get
into that in 1 second. Before we do,
there's some big events this week that
every investor needs to be aware of.
Let's start out with them right here.
So, what we have is core PCE inflation
and inflation numbers on Wednesday at
8:30 a.m. That is going to be a key
component of what drives yields, which
were the big concern last week, and
obviously triggered the Treasury and
Scott Bessent to intervene in the
Treasury market or in the bond market.
Number two, Nvidia earnings after the
bell on Wednesday. So, those will be out
between 4:30 and 5:00 p.m. Eastern time,
and that will shape the market for
Thursday's action in terms of the
semiconductors. And really overall capex
spend, right? Are we going to see Nvidia
showing any signs of weakness, and
ultimately does that crush the markets,
or do we see robust earnings that
continue to plow through? Next and last,
the Jackson Hole meeting this coming
Friday, right? So, basically it's a
3-day meeting. I believe it starts on
Thursday. There will be a speech by
Kevin Warsh on Friday at 10:00 a.m.
Everyone, and I mean everyone in the
investment world is going to be watching
what he says. Is he going to give any
indication? Will the Fed hike rates in
September? This is basically the last
big event where he will speak before
that big meeting in mid-September on
September 16th. So, those are the big
ones. Over the weekend, we continue to
see a big spat going on here. Take a
look. We got a tit-for-tat trade war
going on between the US and Canada. The
US and Canada's negotiations fell apart.
The US imposing 50% tariffs on $20
in goods, and Canada in response says
they will match that 20 billion in
tariffs on on goods coming from the US
into Canada. Those will go into effect
on September 8th if no deal is reached.
So, again, guys, the trade wars, you
know, everything going on here. We
obviously see more threats with Iran. Uh
the US saying they're going to impose
economic D-Day on Iran, meaning that
they're going to really starve the
economy there. Um the oil price is is
pretty much ignoring that, though. And
even the trade war, the markets are
ignoring it. The markets care this week
about Nvidia and Jackson Hole and the
inflation news. All right, let's jump
into the charts and see what we have
going on today. As we take a look,
that's AAOI. We'll get to that in just 1
second. But, the S&P futures are trading
down slightly here in early in the early
session. About 25 minutes from the
market's open, this is what we're seeing
right here. And we can see again just
some sideways chop. We closed up in this
range. So, the S&P futures, if we flip
to the daily chart, are down about
0.16%.
That is not a big move, but this is the
kicker.
The technology side is getting hit more.
Now, why? Well, overnight we heard from
Samsung, which was a little
disappointing, not earnings, but
basically in terms of return capital to
investors. It seems like again that was
a little bit of a disappointment in
terms of the amount that was going to be
given back to investors. So, that is
causing it. We saw the KOSPI trading
down 3.5% in the overnight in Asia, and
that is then trickling into the US
semiconductor trade. So, if we flip back
here and we take a look at the KOSPI
here, let me bring it up. You can see it
was it was down about 3.5%. Now, on a
technical analysis basis, this is a
concerning setup. You have a big down
move, which is your flagpole, okay? And
then ultimately, what we're seeing here
is that we're getting this move up, but
my concern is is this a bearish inside
bar pattern? In other words, an in
spirit of bear flag. Are we going to see
another leg down in the semiconductor
trade? Now, I think we all know when
this will be answered, and the answer is
going to come on Wednesday after the
close, when Nvidia reports. So, we will
know that. My guess is we'll see some
weakness today in the semiconductors,
but somewhat limited until we get to
Wednesday after the close, and then the
fireworks will begin, which will drive
the the second half of the week on
Thursday and Friday in the tech stocks.
All right. Now, there are other tech
stocks reporting this week, a bunch of
them on the day of Nvidia, but Nvidia is
really the mammoth player here. Couple
other things to go over here. If we flip
back, want to take a look at the S&P
daily chart. We continue to see the S&P
500 basically trading between resistance
up here, which is around 7850,
but and above support at 7360
or so. There is the pivot line that we
discussed last week, which is right here
and I like to put this
in a different color just to kind of
show the difference in data points here.
It will put it in orange. But basically
suffice it to say as long as we remain
above 575 70 we'll call it. I would
remain bullish into the end of the week
with expectations of a retest of this
upper trend line and then we'll see if
we can break out. If we did crack this
trend line, it opens up a trapdoor for a
move down into this support at around
that 7360 trend line. All right, and
remember where these two trend lines
come from. They're not short-term trend
lines and I think this is important to
understand is as a technician
you want to focus on trend lines that
have established themselves, that have
proven themselves as either support or
resistance or both for long periods of
time.
If they've proven themselves, then we
trust them more in the current
situation. So if we go here to the
charts, we can clearly see that we have
this ascending trend line that goes all
the way back to 2024. So we're talking a
two plus year trend line here connecting
through these pivot highs or shows that
it worked right here in June of 2026 and
multiple times here in 2026 August. Now
this other trend line was at one point
resistance. It has now proven itself to
be technical support. And so again
long-term trend lines both capping the
upside in the near term and the downside
with the pivot line favoring a bullish
bias in the near term. All right.
Looking at the yields. Now remember,
yields last week were at the huge. I
mean that was the story of the week
because the US Treasury, the government
went in and started to buy or said they
would buy 2 billion more in long-dated
bonds, right? The the
the 20-year trying to bring those yields
down. What I think was the big story.
So, that was obviously the one the
headline that most investors saw that
wow, the Treasury's buying these bonds.
Oh my goodness, this is yield curve
control, which you're right.
But, I think the bigger story was that
the market basically it was a one-day
event and then the yields went right
back up. And that to me is telling you
that number one,
Scott Bessent used a little a little pea
gun, a little like uh pellet gun
versus a bazooka. And also that the
market just kind of was like, really?
You you think you're going to be able to
control 40 trillion in debt with $2
billion in extra buys on the long end
here? You ain't doing it. And the market
just laughed it off in many ways. And
so, this is what we're watching here
because now you have this symposium at
Jackson Hole where the Fed is all
getting together and we're going to hear
on on Friday in this speech from Kevin
Warsh, what does this mean? Did the Fed
go with this plan with this the the
president and the Treasury on their own?
What does Kevin Warsh think of it? Will
he even speak up against it or will he
just remain silent? What is he going to
do? And it's going to be interesting, I
have to say. I am looking forward to
that speech on Friday. All right. The
dollar today getting a tiny little
bounce here, so a little bit of an
uptick, but not a whole lot going on
there. Now, moving to some of these
other markets here, we have Alibaba,
which is trading down. Now, Alibaba had
some news overnight. They're basically
doing a discounted equity sale or or
sale
uh of of of to investors um and they're
raising money. And again, this is all to
fund AI. We know this, right? But, it is
hurting the stock. It's dilutive,
they're doing it at a discount. And we
are seeing the stock pull back. Now,
what I'm curious about as a technician,
remember I'm a chart follower. So, we
have this trend line right here, which
broke out right at this point, it broke
out. And this is going to take us
potentially down to a retrace to the
scene of the crime with a gap fill right
here. Now, in technical analysis, this
should be a viable level around 115 for
a swing trade on the long side. So, I'm
eyeing this very, very closely here as
it comes down on this news a little bit.
Remember, last week they also reported
earnings, and their earnings were not
great. And we talked about that in last
week's game plan, as well. So, keep an
eye on Ollie
I'm watching it. I'm not sold on it just
yet that I'll be a buyer at 115, but I
am watching closely. The opto-electronic
market is taking a hit today. LITE
closed on Friday here at 867. It's
trading at 820 today, so that is a big
drop here. We're talking about
about 6 to 7% downside here in early
trading. Now, granted, this had rallied
up. What I'm going to be following here,
there's a gap fill that was never filled
at 780. As a day trade, I will be
isolating that down for a potential
trade today. So, this is just a day
trade. I'm not even thinking about going
long or short as a swing trade, but just
as a day trade around 780 on the radar.
Another electronics fiber player is
AAOI. Look at this, Friday it closed at
$125.
Friday after hours, it tanked to 112.
It's now trading at 108. So, this is a
big drop here, as well. And this is now
even surpassing this gap fill. As a day
trade, I'm going to be eyeing this level
a 100 even number. If we get down and
pierce 100, I may look at that as a day
trade. Other than that, I am ignoring
it. No swing trade level found here.
PDD, Pinduoduo,
reported earnings this morning. That
stock is up on earnings. The daily
chart, what are we seeing here? You have
a little bit of a pivot high gap fill at
93. I don't think I have the guts to
short this because in all fairness, you
can see it's beaten down quite a bit and
I don't like jumping in front of a
freight train when price is still
compressed because the the spring is
maybe it's starting to decompress and
popping up, but you don't know how big
of a pop that's going to get. Having
said that, as we go higher, that's where
we start to get a bigger probability
that if we slam into a level there and
it's more extended, the spring is more
extended, that it'll it'll pull back a
little bit, right? And so, if we look at
this chart, there is an additional level
up here that I would be interested at
around 9660
if it gets there intraday. Now again,
I'm not looking to swing trade this on
the short side, only as a day trade, but
this 9660-ish level, 97 area, right
here, would stand out for a potential
day trade short. Look at this, if we
extend this line out, you can see this
little pivot here, these little pivot
points here before it bounced up then
finally broke through. This would be
what I would consider a retrace to the
scene of the crime as well. All right.
Let's rotate now
and go into the commodity space. Now,
the commodity space inclusive of Bitcoin
was incredible last week. Gold has been
on a meteoric run up about 20% now since
basically in the last 2 weeks, which is
I mean, it had its best week in a long
time. Bitcoin had its best week by the
way in years. Um let's see what the
charts are showing us today. Let's go to
it. Gold today continues to push up.
It's up another 1.6%
One of the levels I'm watching and this
was that descending trend line that we
broke out from and you can see what a
massive move from the breakout and like
I showed you guys from the lows here at
around 3900, it's now up about 18 and
1/2% almost 20% move. Now, the kicker is
this, I I watching this trend line
taking this pivot low before this
massive move up, and saying, "Okay, take
this, we extend it right through here,
and it goes right through this secondary
low." So, notice pivot low, pivot low to
this little pivot low right there. You
see that one right there?
And look at where price is coming back
to. So, we're coming into this level. In
addition, if we look at the Fibonacci uh
retrace from our all-time highs down to
this low, what do we see? We see that it
just above that level by a little bit is
our 50% retrace. And that also coincides
with this pivot high. So, right between
I would say between 4,700 and 4,760,
there should be major resistance on
gold. I will give gold credit, though.
Um
I saw the breakout. I am surprised by
how enormous the breakout has been. It
has been an incredible move. For gold,
this is a move that almost mirrors the
end of the bull run when we saw the move
up in um in early 2026, right? So, here,
if we see consolidated and then this
move up, I mean, this is getting to
those levels. You get up in this range,
it's going to match this last little
bit. The question hopefully we don't
see, and if you're a gold bull like I
am, um
I don't want to see a drop like this. to
see a more shallow consolidation,
building a base before it can run
higher. Silver continues to move up.
Silver coming into a little bit of
resistance. High pivot here, low pivot
here. So, look for silver to get up to
about 71 to 7150, then it should run
into short-term resistance. If that
resistance gets taken out, there's a
secondary pivot around $79, which would
be your next key trend line. Flipping
over to oil, oil went up into this
descending trend line here from this
bigger wedge. It is pulling back a
little bit here. Yes, the US government
and and the president are threatening
the economic D-Day, but notice it's just
economic. There's no military action.
And again, I could be wrong and I've
been wrong before and I'll be wrong
again, but with the midterms approaching
now within about 2 months or so, I don't
think there'll be any economic or I
should say any any military action until
after the midterms, okay? And then then
we'll have to see if there's a deal or
not, but I think that's pretty much on
pace here. All right, so oil again small
pull back. Nat gas is getting my
attention more and more. It is trying to
break out again. It's multiple times
it's hitting this trend line. Can it
hold today? Can it break through this
level? I'll be checking in later with
members and watching this like a hawk.
Every time it's pushed through it's been
rejected, but the question is how many
times will the seller step up and reject
it before it finally breaks out.
Bitcoin, oh nice little drop on Bitcoin
here. Nice little dip and this is the
10-minute chart, but if we go to the
daily chart, you can see here. Look at
this beautiful trend line. Pivot low,
pivot low, pivot low, and then where did
it go on Friday? Right into that level
small pull back. There is a lot of
resistance around 80,000 here on Bitcoin
after this monumental move. I will keep
you guys posted on what I see in this
chart, but right now based on pure
technical analysis and probability, we
should be seeing a pull back in Bitcoin.
I'm looking for about a 50% retrace of
this move, which would take us into the
71 to 73,000 level before maybe another
bull run to the upside. So, let's see
what happens this week.
A lot of this will be dependent on does
the bond market get intervened in again?
What does Kevin Warsh say? What's the
inflation data? These will all be
drivers of not just Bitcoin, but gold
and silver as well, plus yields, which
will then impact the economy and
obviously the stock market. All right,
guys, I got to get to my trading room.
Thank you so much for tuning in. Thank
you for your likes, your shares. Before
I get going, I have to mention, guys,
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all for me. Go have a great trading day,
trading week. I'll see you in the
charts. Take care.