Markets Ignore Higher Rates, Rally On Bitcoin And Gold...But MAJOR Storm Clouds Approaching!

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that count, wrapped up
with clarity and precision. This is
Weekly [music] Wrap-up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey folks, welcome to the Friday Weekly
Wrap-up. My name is Gareth Soloway,
Chief Market Strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, the week has ended and I would say
the big event for the week was the
metals ripping higher, Bitcoin having
one of its biggest weeks in years as
again, we saw this run from essentially
the fiat side of currencies to a more
hedging approach. Now, asset prices did
okay for the week, but again, gold,
silver, Bitcoin, those were the
standouts. The question is, will that
last or will see we see a rotation back
into tech names that kind of
underperformed as money rotated into
those other areas. All right, so when
all was said and done today, we saw the
S&P up about 4/10 of a percent. So, the
S&P did gain today and what was
interesting about today is it was more
of this jovial feeling. So, if you
looked at the 10-year yield, the 10-year
yield went up today. In fact, it's near
its 52-week highs again in spite of the
government intervening in the bond
market. And again, I wouldn't say it's
unprecedented for them to intervene, but
certainly what they're trying to do here
is yield curve control and that's
basically buying long-dated bonds which
have a higher interest rate and to do
that, they're selling short-dated bonds
and bringing on more debt. So, they're
taking on more debt, but on the short
end, the twos, the
the five-year the bonds and those
shorter maturity yields and then they're
taking that money and buying back the
long end. They're trying to bring the
30-year down and the 10-year down. When
all is said and done for the week, at
this stage it's not working.
And the big question has to be asked,
are they going to take out the bazooka
and throw a lot more money at this or
they going to kind of sit back while
yields push higher? Because the yields,
frankly, the bond market said, "Screw
you." Hate to say it that way, but
that's basically what they said to the
Treasury after the Treasury said they
were going to buy $4 billion in bonds.
All right. So, let's look at what
happened today. The S&P 500, here it is.
This is your daily chart of the S&P, so
each candle is 1 day. Basically, the
week started this was last Friday. So,
you can see we kind of ended right off
of this resistance trend line. Monday,
Tuesday, small bounce on Wednesday,
Thursday down, Friday a small bounce.
All in all, it was a down week on the
S&P. Notice again, it's coming off of a
resistance trend line that hit here,
then sold off, hit here and paused, came
back up, and now is selling off again.
So, this is really establishing itself
to be a very foundational strong trend
line that is resistance on the S&P. Now,
if the S&P rallies next week, it looks
like right around 7850, that's this
trend line to watch next week via the
S&P. Now, on the downside, any sort of
major drop, you can see how we're
establishing ourselves above this major
trend line. Again, this is the upper
band of a parallel channel that goes all
the way back to the COVID lows right
here and the bull market high in 2021.
So, that's really where we are. We're
pulling off. There is a pivot line that
I continue to watch, which is right
here. This line basically is the
differentiator between if I have a
positive or short-term negative bias. We
remain above it, so I got to go with the
trend right now, And and the trend
continues to have that positive angle to
it. Now, going back to what I said, and
this is really important. So, the
10-year yield was up today. The 30-year
yield performed relatively well, as
well. In fact, if we look at the 10-year
yield, I want to show you guys this on
the chart. Look at this. The 10-year
yield basically ended right at the
recent highs. In other words, this is
not what the Treasury had in mind. This
is not what the US government had in
mind when they made the announcement a
couple days ago about buying long-dated
bonds. Now, normally, the stock market
would sell off with yields on the
10-year going up, closing at 4.73%.
But, today we didn't see that. We saw
the stock market up. Why was the stock
market up? A few reasons. One of them is
light volume. It is late August, and you
have a lot of big institutional money on
holiday. So, again, the big money's
away. It They say the mice will play
when the cat's away, and I think that's
part of it. Once we get back into
September, it'll be interesting to see.
The other factor, which is probably the
predominant one, is the fact that risk
assets were going up. Bitcoin, big
rally. So, we know a lot of retail
investors were getting all excited about
Bitcoin. Money was rotating out of some
sectors of the stock market into Bitcoin
and crypto, but it kind of brought on
this risk-on atmosphere. Like, "Hey, who
cares about yields? You can make money."
We're seeing all coins ripping 20, 30,
40, 50%. Bitcoin's up basically 25%
in just 1 week. And so, that mood with
gold breaking out, and gold having a
great run, is coaxing money in. The gold
miners had a fantastic week this week,
as well. And I think that probably took
the focus off of yields going up, plus
the lighter institutional volume being
away. That helped the markets inch
higher. Now, next week, let's see what
happens. So, next week, couple things.
PCE data. So, the inflation data is
coming out next week. The biggest thing
next week is Nvidia earnings.
All right, Nvidia reports Wednesday
after the closing bell, and that will be
an earthquake one way or the other. It's
either going to help the markets
continue their rally, or it's going to
really put a nail in the coffin of the
AI chip trade. Watch that Wednesday
after the close. All right. Back to the
charts we go. The dollar today had a
flattish day. Again, the big story of
the week was the breakdown on the
dollar. Major trend line broken here,
and what that tells us is that the
dollar is most likely going to go lower
in the next couple weeks to month. Now,
we could get a short-term bounce on the
dollar. There's always a retrace
possible, but in general, once we've
confirmed below a trend line, you
generally don't go like that. In
general, you'll see more downside even
if you get a little bit of a bounce in
the near term. We looked at the 10-year
yield. I do want to touch right into
gold because gold is a big one. Gold
continued its rally today up another 2%
or almost $100. Now, what's interesting
about gold here, there is a trend line
that we have to talk about. So,
I've been racking my brain. Listen, the
wedge pattern breakout was tremendous.
When I saw the breakout, I said, "Okay,
this is a breakout. It's pretty solid."
Did I think we were going to see this
type of rally in gold? No way. I didn't
think that. I mean, this was an
incredible move in gold just on the
wedge breakout. And for those of you
that are new, notice that the wedge, you
have your descending trend line here,
all of these high pivots. Notice again,
the price every time it would hit would
get rejected. Rejected here, and then
once it broke, it was like a jailbreak.
Think about that. So, you know, finally
the the the inmates within the jail got
released, and they just flooded out into
the masses, right? Into the world. And
that's really what gold has done here.
It's had a jailbreak and now it's had a
massive run because of it. Now again,
the trend line that I'm going to be
keeping an eye on next week is coming up
very, very quickly. Now I like to keep
my charts pretty neat as you guys know.
So I do like to erase those little
lines, but the one I'm looking at is
right here, right? So what we're looking
at is this pivot low. So this was
consolidation before this run and what
we do is we draw this through and I'm
going to change the color on this
because I want it to stick out here. And
what we see is you had your move up,
your base of consolidation, then your
bull run, pullback, final bull run. So
we're taking that beginning of that
first bull run here that took place in
basically
late 2025.
Then we connect it through this pullback
low here.
It goes right to this low.
And what we see here is that it's very,
very close. Now listen, can gold blast
right through this? Absolutely. My job
as a technician of the charts is to
simply look and say, "Okay, gold's had a
great run. Where may the bulls run into
some resistance where they're going to
have to battle through that resistance?"
And this level, which is right below
4700,
appears to be the level. What I'm
curious about is on Sunday night, does
gold open up right here and then sees a
little bit of a pullback on Monday?
Obviously, we'll watch and see. But
needless to say, it's been a tremendous
run on gold. So watch this level next
week just below basically 4660 to 4700
on gold. That'll be the next testing
point. You also do have just a little
bit further resistance just above that
as well. All right. Gold miners.
Normally I don't go into the gold miners
when I talk about gold because usually
it they're not active enough. In the
case of this, they are active enough.
Incredible almost 50% run in the gold
miners, the GDX. The kicker is this. We
talked about the 618 Fibonacci was right
here. It did push through that and it
slammed into a gap fill pivot high right
here as well. Doesn't mean it can't go
higher, but there is resistance and I
have taken a little bit of a short
position on the gold miners. I'm not
shorting gold cuz I I'm not a thinking
we're at that level yet, but the gold
miners have run so much. I do think
there is an opportunity for just a
standard decent pullback after a 50% run
in basically a month. All right. On to
silver, let's take a look at silver.
Silver broke out of its same descending
trend line here. Here's your wedge on
silver. It hasn't been as a dramatic
move, which is kind of unique because
usually silver moves more than gold.
This has been a strictly gold bull run.
Yes, silver is up, but on a normal basis
silver usually outperforms gold. It has
not necessarily done that here. All
right, so the kicker is yes, it's up.
Where are we going to run into some
resistance? Here, watch this level next
week right around 71 to 7150 pivot low.
Here you kiss it, then you broke,
retraced, which establishes control
right here. It
basically makes the structure and then
we see the pullback right there. And
again, if we get into this level, this
is where the fight will begin for the
bulls versus the bears. Okay. Next up,
let's look at oil. Oil again, up today.
There's this key trend line that I'm
continuing to follow. Again, I adjusted
my trend line just a little bit so it
makes more sense and it does make sense
here. That's what you got to do in
technical analysis. You got to be aware
of that. And then ultimately, I'm still
not convinced that oil is going to break
out. Maybe I'll be wrong next week, but
I think if it's going to break out,
you've got to have a re-escalation in
the Middle East uh between the US and
Iran militarily, not with words or
economic pressure. It has to be military
um
action. And I'm still doubtful with the
elections coming up, the midterms coming
up, that that will happen. By the way,
one of my bull cases for Bitcoin, if you
recall, so number one, the breakout on
the chart was crystal clear. And I I
screamed it from the rooftop. Every
video I did, every interview I did, uh
we bought a ton of Bitcoin in the
service, etc. Uh but one of the reasons
why I believed Bitcoin was going to make
a move is because politically it made
sense that the Clarity Act start getting
more attention and the president start
talking about it getting through. And
just like clockwork, that's exactly what
we saw happen. So, um it hasn't passed
or anything, but now you're actually
seeing it being pushed because you have
the midterms and they got to look for
votes, right? Doesn't matter which
political party, it's just the political
parties are going to work. They work the
same way. They they figure out what
levers they can pull to get some votes
and they pull those levers, whether they
care or not, doesn't matter. It's all
about the votes. Hate to be pessimistic
in that respect, but that's just the
nature of the beast when you're judging
things based on probability and data.
Okay, so again, we can take a look at
Bitcoin real quick. What an incredible
move here. Um again, Bitcoin did tag
resistance this morning. I have unloaded
my Bitcoin holdings. Uh in fact, I even
have a small short position based off of
this high just below 80,000. Pivot
trendline to pivot trendline. Um the
question is how much of a pullback?
Basically, I'll look for about a 50%
retrace down to about 70, 71,000. Uh
we'll see if we get that. If it breaks
through this level here at 79.5, then
you're talking about it going up here to
about 82,000. This would be your next
big resistance, this high pivot right in
here. All right? I'll keep you guys
posted on that. Natural gas today
basically non-existent, flatish. I am
slowly getting a little bit more bullish
based on the price action of natural
gas. I will keep you guys posted next
week if there's a flip. Once there's a
flip, it's going to be game on. It
hasn't happened yet, maybe it won't
happen. But again, it is something that
I'm very closely monitoring on the
charts and I will make sure in the game
plans next week to alert you if I see
it. Looking at a couple charts today,
like I said, the money basically was
going into metal plays, mining plays,
other plays versus tech. Great example
of this would be SanDisk. SanDisk was
actually negative today, down only a
quarter percent, but it just shows that
money flow was not going into the semis
today. It was moving out of the semis.
Amazon, same thing. Amazon was down,
Apple was down today. These all kind of
took little hits today while anything
crypto related like Robinhood
had a big move to the upside. Robinhood
up over 13, almost 14%
on the day. So listen,
this was a week of
the government
intervening to the point where it really
woke up the metals trade and the Bitcoin
trade. The question is, does it continue
next week? The key things that we'll be
watching next week, the PCE inflation
data as well as Nvidia earnings. And
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note, go have a great weekend. Thank you
guys for your support. Means the world
to us here at Verified Investing. Keeps
us plugging ahead, and I will see you
next week, bright and early Monday
morning, 9:00 a.m. game plan. Take care.