Bitcoin Bull Back, Gold Miners At Risk, Stocks Look To Rally On Treasury Bond Comments

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I [music] mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
[music] that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to this
Friday morning edition of my trading
game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com
and we have seen Bitcoin absolutely go
nuts. Bitcoin has ripped up. I warned
you about this over the last week that
we had broken out. We were seeing
consolidation, which is the battery
charging for a meteoric move and now
Bitcoin kissed the 80,000 level after
being around 62,000 just a few days ago.
Now gold is continuing to push. Yields
are still kind of chopping up here.
Interestingly enough, we've heard more
comments from Treasury Secretary
Bassette talking about potentially doing
bigger bond purchases on the long end of
the yield curve. And remember, this is
yield curve control. That's what the
government's trying to do here is push
down the long end by selling shorter end
and buying back those long end bonds.
Now again, will it work? It may, it may
not, but one thing it sends is a clear
message to us as investors and to the
world that there are issues in the
underlying fiat system of the US and
really every other fiat currency out
there that has massive amount of debt to
GDP. Okay, so what we're going to do is
we're going to go into the charts. We'll
start with the S&P, then we're going to
get right into the dollar, the yields
and Bitcoin because Bitcoin is really
the story of the day today on this
Friday. Let's take a look at the ES
futures. Now this is the S&P futures.
Yesterday we had that nice drop as
yields pushed back up overnight. Again,
comments from the Treasury Secretary
about potentially increasing the buys of
bonds and also seeing some of these
other assets run, risk assets run, and
the futures have pushed back up. So,
that puts us in a state for about a half
percent gain on the S&P futures at the
open. Now, if we go to the S&P itself,
we can see that we were hammering up
against this trend line. Really, what an
amazing trend line this turned out to
be. We can zoom out and see where it
starts. And I have my starting point
back in July of 2024, kisses the high in
November 2024, then in December 2024,
then we see the market I'll go away and
being controlled by the bigger parallel,
right? This bigger parallel that goes
back to the lows of COVID. We come up to
the high end of the parallel, it
rejects, then when we break out, what
ends up happening? We go right back to
that trend line, pull back a few times
to this line, which is now acting as
technical support, and then go right
back up. Look at this, one hit, pulls
back, two hits, bigger pull back, and a
little bounce is setting up for today.
So, again, you guys remember what I've
said. We've talked about how
there's a pivot line in the middle of
these two major trend lines, and that
kind of gives me my bias in the near
term. And remember, I'm a near term
trader. Listen, I I don't I'm not very
optimistic for the markets over the next
5 years or so, but in the near term, the
charts are just what I focus on. And
when we look at that, we have our bias,
which is our near term trend line, as
this point right here, right? It's
basically the midpoint between this
trend line in yellow and this one down
here in white. This white one is right
through this pivot high to this pivot
high. That is my pivot point. There's
also a gap filled just above it. As long
as price remains above this area here,
which is around this 7,600 level on the
S&P, I I would favor upside price
action. All right? Not every day, but
just, you know, again, the trend is up.
We break this, we at least go down and
test 7,360
on the S&P 500, and then we would go on
watch to see if this trend line breaks
or not. But right now, we're still in
the positive zone of this zone, and
therefore neutral to positive bias on
the market near term. The dollar
continues to stay weak. What a breakdown
this week in the US dollar. Going into
last week, we really saw this. Last
Friday, 1 week ago today, we saw a break
of the trend line, two pause candles,
and then the big drop here. Amazing how
the chart kind of predicted this move to
the downside with a breakdown on the USD
last Friday, and then ultimately what
happened this week. The 30-year yield
fractionally higher today. So, even the
comments by the Treasury Secretary not
really swaying yields to the downside on
the long end. If we look at the 10-year
yield, is also basically flat on the
day. And this is really the big concern
is that, you know, the Treasury had to
go out and say, "Hey, we're going to up
our buys of these long yield or long
duration bonds from basically by 100%.
They were upping their amounts." And we
saw a one-day reaction. That's it. And
then yields are starting to creep up.
And that's what's triggering uh Scott
Bessent to have to come out, the
Treasury Secretary, and say, "Well, you
know what? We might have to up this
amount." Because he's trying to get
those yields on the long end down, and
they're not going down. So, what's the
next step? Does he actually say, "Okay,
I said $4 billion in long end buys, but
I'm going to raise it to 10." Will that
have a longer-term impact? Does he have
to go to 100 million? Does he have to go
or 100 billion? Does he have to go to
it? I mean, where is the end game here?
And I think the end game depends a lot
on how high the US debt goes. At 40
trillion dollars, that end game could be
100 billion or it could be 500 billion.
If we go to 80 bill 80 trillion in US
debt, then I guarantee it's a lot higher
that the government's going to have to
get involved. And you know what? The end
game is collapse. That's just the end
game at this point. It's just a matter
of when, not if. All right. Let's get
into Bitcoin. Look at this move on
Bitcoin. Holy cow, what a rally.
Incredible.
So, here was our descending trend line.
This is the one I highlighted to you
guys. We broke out. We consolidated
above the line, staying above the line.
In these game plans, I said to you, I am
now bullish on Bitcoin as long as we
stay above the white trend line. We
certainly did. And look at that rip. A
massive move from about 62,000 to almost
80,000 in a matter of just a few days.
Now,
where is Bitcoin? So, number one, I had
picked up a lot of crypto going into
this week. I've now basically unloaded
it all at this point. All right. Now, it
doesn't mean Bitcoin can't go higher,
but the risk reward has now wildly
flipped. I mean, after a, you know, 20
almost 20,000 dollar move on Bitcoin,
you know, yes, you could go higher, but
you're due you're starting to get to a
point where you're due for a reversal.
And I will say this, I even started to
short a little Bitcoin today. And I'm
going to show you right now where. Okay.
So,
big move up. And remember, I'm a
short-term trader, so this has no
implications on my long-term views on
Bitcoin, which happen to be positive.
But look at this trend line. Take this
low pivot from February, connect it
right through these lows in April, drag
it all the way out, and look at the high
today. Low pivot, low pivot, and where
does it go? Where was the high today?
Right to that trend line. That's
incredible. But, that's how charts work,
right? So, ultimately, is this a
potential near-term top? I would say so
until proven otherwise. Doesn't mean we
can't go higher. If we do go higher, we
start testing this $82,000 level. But,
at least in the near term, on a swing
basis, I'm looking for a pullback to the
mid-to-low 70,000 range. And then I'll I
we making a bull flag? Does that tell me
it's going to go back up and go higher?
Or is it going to roll over and go even
lower? But, in the near term, I've
unloaded that crypto. I've even inched
in a toe in the water on the short side
of Bitcoin as a swing trader. All right.
So, that's number one. Bitcoin amazing
move, ETH, Solana, I mean, all of the
cryptosphere has gotten has gotten a big
relief rally. But, let's move on to
gold. Gold today, look at this. Gold is
up again about 1.35%.
But, there is an area here. Look at
this. We have our pivot point right
here, or little consolidation before the
breakdown. And this is also a Fibonacci
382
retrace from the highs up here to the
low down here. Okay? So, what this means
is does this mean that gold is done
going up? No. It just means that this is
a point where the bulls are going to
have to force it through. Naturally
speaking, this is going to be some
resistance here around 4,600. Let's see
if the bulls can push it through. Now,
for me, am I shorting gold here? Nope.
Not shorting gold. It's not a big enough
move. All right. Now, if we were at the
618 and have shot up in a matter of a
couple weeks to the 618, I would
probably swing trade it short. It hasn't
done that. It's only at the 382. It's
not a big enough move. Now, on the other
side, the miners have far outpaced the
upside on gold. And I am inching in on
shorts on the miners. So, if we flip
back to the chart here and we go to GDX,
look at this move on GDX. Incredible.
We've gone from $70
to now $102.50
in the pre-market. Now, what's important
about that, folks, is that that is a
monumental move of almost 50%
while gold has only rallied slightly.
So, to me, I see a opportunity here. I
see a potential for gold to kind of hang
out here and chop a little bit, miners
to pull back off of this level. And just
to show you how wacky this is and how
much the miners have rallied versus gold
in comparison to what normally happens,
look at where we are on the chart. So,
how far does the do the miners have to
go from current price to get to their
all-time highs here? And the answer is
only 14%. So, we have already recaptured
everything but 14% upside of the miners
to get back to their previous high when
gold, remember, where was gold up here?
Gold was at 5,600.
So, at 5,600, GDX was at 117. We're
already at 102.5.
Now, if we flip back to gold, how far
does gold have to go to get back to its
all-time highs? And take a look at this,
guys. From current levels, gold has to
go up 22%.
Now, what's crazy about that is that
usually the miners go up multiples of
what gold goes. So, it shows you that
the gold miners have front-ran the price
of gold. And to me, that's what we would
call kind of a a disparity. Um it's
almost like a contango or a or a little
bit of a disjointed move that alerts me
to a potential opportunity. Now, there's
no such thing as a sure thing, so I
don't know if this will work out. But
for me, I'm eyeing gold miners to look
for selling in gold miners. While I
don't think gold I mean gold could pull
back a little bit, but I don't think
there's a huge short on gold. I think
it's the gold miners where we'll see a
pullback. All right, so we'll continue
to watch on that. Silver, silver here
pushing up. We broke through this trend
line here. Notice this is a longer-term
trend line. It ended up being pivot low
support, bounce, resistance, resistance
all along here, finally broke. Next
resistance, this pivot high and this
pivot low are joined and that's at
around 7150.
So 7150 we have upside potential on
silver until we hit that. Next up we
have oil. Oil trying to break out here.
Will it break out? We'll see. As of now,
remember it has not confirmed a
breakout. So this would not be a chart
that I would get very bullish on until
we see a confirmed breakout. And you
know me, I still remain a skeptic. I
won't short gold here cuz there's not
enough reward for the risk, but at the
same time with the midterms quickly
coming on. Getting close to September,
then you only have September and October
for the midterms. I personally think
there's very it's very unlikely to see
military action between the US and Iran.
Very It doesn't mean it can't happen,
but it's the probability is low. Now
after the midterms, there's a whole new
ballgame. But before the midterms
unlikely and that probably at least for
me keeps me away from jumping on a long
trade on oil until at least those
midterms come.
All right, next up natural gas which
continues to just chop here below key
resistance. I will be monitoring this.
Again, I would say that natural gas is
on my radar, but it's not a amazing
opportunity just yet. I am keeping a
close eye on it as it is peaking my
interest overall though. So I'll keep
you guys posted on what I'm seeing in
that aspect. Now, we did have one stock
today making a move. Um that is Ross
Stores. Ross Stores reported earnings
this morning. That stock is last I
checked, it was rallying. Let's
double-check. Yep, great move up here.
Volume pretty light. Again, Ross Stores
is not a huge company. Um it's a decent
size one, but overall, you could see
that price was coming down on the daily
chart into earnings. This is a great
move. As a day trade, my first level for
a day trade would be double top here,
right around 256.50. That could be a
shortable level there. All right, in
addition, if we were to push through,
there's a very beautiful up-sloping
ascending trend line. If I was looking
at a swing short, it would be up at this
trend line if we tag that in the coming
days or weeks. Wherever this trend line
is, look at the how great it is. Every
time we hit this trend line, it pulls
back off this level. I love these
ascending trend lines. If you look at
CrowdStrike, this one worked out
beautifully. Look at this trend line. It
was technical support down here, broke
below it, resistance rejected, rejected,
rejected, then it comes up here,
rejected, and look, hits it again, and
rejected. It's the beauty of the charts.
They are absolutely remarkable
across the board. So, the big stories of
the day, again, markets look to open
positive today on the back of hopefully,
maybe the government doing more buying.
I don't like it personally because it's
again, it's it's the government trying
to put constraints on what the natural
market wants to do. But, let's be
honest, at this point, if the market did
what it wants to do, it would ultimately
have a massive collapse. Now, the
government can get involved like the
Federal Reserve and postpone the
inevitable collapse, but they can't
cancel it. It it's just it's it's a
matter of how far they can push it out.
And I'm still concerned, and I've said
this, and I'm going to continue to say
this for the next couple years. My big
worry is the 100-year cycle of the Great
Depression and how everything we're
seeing US debt, this intervention in the
bond market, the Federal Reserve ever
since the Great Recession and their
involvement there, the dollar and
dedollarization, gold's price action. I
mean, I could go on and on. The the
consumer, how 90 or 80% of the consumer
that is struggling even though the top
patier just continues to get wealthier
because of the stock market, AI and
potentially the dot-com type collapse
down the road on. I mean, it all is
culminating in something and for me, I
hope it doesn't happen. I hope I'm
wrong. Because if I'm wrong, then I'm
good and everyone's good. No one wants
this to happen, folks. This is I mean,
listen, maybe the enemies enemies of the
US and the world do, but in other words,
you don't want it to happen, but at the
same time, I don't want to stick my head
in the sand and ignore the obvious
signals, which would keep me from
preparing, right? And so, it's almost
like insurance. You don't buy insurance
cuz you think you're going to need it.
You buy insurance because it's like,
well, it's probably the smart thing to
protect me if something goes wrong. Same
sort of thing. All right, have a great
rest of your day. I'll be back for a
weekly wrap-up today at 4:20 live to
cover everything in today's session. You
guys go have a great trading day. I'll
talk to you soon. Take care.