10 Year Yield Surge Pressures Markets Following Bessent Debt Buybacks

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Nosek and today
guys, we saw a wild day on the 10-year
yield. Yesterday we heard the percent
was coming out helping to buy the debt
at double the clip that he normally
would do and that sent the 10-year yield
down which did help elevate some stocks,
but then the 10-year yield today went
straight back up and not only that, US
oil pushed up and confirmed its
near-term breakout on the charts. We'll
show you that cuz we've been tracking it
daily. So now with the 10-year back up,
that little band-aid that I told you
yesterday is exactly what it was guys.
It's a little band-aid that's going to
need a lot more fixing to reduce the
amount of debt that we have with
elevated rates. That's not a good thing
for the US government and that's not a
good thing for a lot of big companies
out there that have a lot of CapEx
spending that are going to have to
refinance these uh big expenditures. So,
let's get into some charts guys first
and check out what's going on in the S&P
500 on the daily time frame. We see here
nice down day today down 0.84%,
but it's simply coming back to retest
this trend line which was the previous
all-time highs back here in June 2nd of
this year. We did have a breakout and
then we had that confirmed up here at
this candle on August 13th. That then
declares this level a level of support,
one of which that should hold price for
at least a day or two if price comes
down into it before eventually breaking.
Um
and there's no guarantee of a break,
there's no guarantee of a bounce, but
there's a higher probability of price
staying above this horizontal trend line
if price plunges into it tomorrow at
least for a day or two, potentially
consolidating on top. If very well
potentially a bounce, but this is the
area that I'm going to keep my eyes on
very closely tomorrow to see how price
interacts. When we have a rising 10-year
yield, this bounce and the staying power
on this horizontal trend line could be
weakened. So, I'll really be watching
both the 10-year yield as well as the
S&P 500 should we have any further
selling tomorrow. Uh next up the Qs, as
you see here also down about 0.72%
today, getting away from the 2-day
consolidation that occurred back here,
getting further away from the potential
breakout discussion that we were talking
about last week. You can see here also
getting down towards the bottom range of
this breakout candle, much like the
spiders, just a completely different
pattern that's going on here, but still
testing the lower range of this
potentially tomorrow. Now, I don't see
this as being a level of support.
Instead, I see this gap fill down here
as being a better level. Why? Well, a
couple reasons. One, it's an extended
gap up move, so price when it does and
comes back in, it likely can come all
the way back and fill this gap. But then
secondly, this gap fills at $700 and 7
cents. Price as well as investors love
whole round psychological numbers like
the $700 figure to provide a level of
support. So, we'll see that $10 drop
tomorrow will be pretty steep, but in
the coming days we'll see if we can't
catch support for a near-term bounce
right there on that gap fill around $700
on the Qs. Next up into the SMH,
interesting chart price action we've got
going here. Now, yes, we did put in a
green day, up 0.31%,
but you see the reason why, right guys?
Last yesterday we had price come
straight down to the top end of this
parallel and as since bounced right back
up. Much like I was describing I
anticipate what could happen on the
spiders if we come down tomorrow, hit
this, maybe close the day in or around
this trend line, and then have a one-day
potential bounce up. That's exactly
what's happening here on the SMH. We hit
that level of support yesterday. Today,
we didn't go lower than the low
yesterday, instead maintained most of
the day above this inclining parallel,
one that dates back to the liberation
day lows back here in April of 2025.
It's curious how price is trying to get
back into this upward trend and get out
of this ridiculously inclining uh
blowout top that we had on SMH. And so,
you can see we're knocking on that door
to get right back in. Once and if we do,
the support level inside that parallel
is going to be the exactly the similar
location that that gave the bounce back
in July. It's going to be the 50% area
of the parallel channel at $527.13.
Next up, the 10-year yield, guys. Look
at that complete reversal. This was the
work done by our US government to help
taper some of the 10-year yield, as well
as the 30-year yield that's literally
ripping off the charts. And look at it,
completely reversed every little bit of
effort that pushed that down yesterday
on the 10-year yield, getting ourselves
right back above this resistance level
at 4.687. Guys, this is looking more and
more like a bull flag. If I zoom back
out on the weekly time frame and scroll
back out, you can see the breakout that
is occurring. We've got a declining
trend line here. Price tried to get
above, got rejected. Now, we have
staying power up here, at least for the
past 5 weeks. We're maintaining above
this declining trend line, implying a
breakout is at hand. Next resistance,
4.809, this high pivot back here in
January of '25, and then very next step
is going to be the high end of all of
this bullish consolidation that really,
I guess, can be illustrated a little bit
better on the monthly time frame. Look
at this, a big move up and then sideways
consolidation. Notice when this drop
was. This was the COVID lows, folks.
This is when
the world was anticipating, nobody
moving, nobody going anywhere. So,
refinancing folks were just coming out
of the woodwork to get better rates on
their mortgages and glad that they did
at that time because right now we are
far higher on the charts, looking like
we're building momentum to break out to
go even higher. Now, we're going to take
you step by step here in the show how
this goes. But, guys, a bull flag with
this sort of flag pole, I mean, we're
talking about a move that could finalize
up here in the 7% range. Now, I know
that sounds wild right now and if that
were to occur, our US debt, oh my gosh,
that that would be front and center with
how we are going to service it because
again, the servicing, the interest that
we're paying is more than our national
defense spending. That's insane. That's
a boatload of wasted money in my
opinion. So, we need to kind of taper
this down, get this under control,
potentially just put it flatline right
now for as many months as we can so we
don't reach that 6 or 7% mark way up
there on the chart much like this bull
flag is trying to imply where it's
going. All right, next up into gold.
Gold today, guys, mainly took the day
off. It actually had some decent selling
pressure with this wick that you see
here on the daily candle, but then is
finishing the day right up near
yesterday's high. So, good staying power
here on gold, not getting back into the
previous daily consolidation. Matter of
fact, you see the low pivot today, it
came in contact with one of the high
pivots back here in August 13th. So,
consolidating support is doing its work
near term holding price up on gold with
the next resistance $4,575. Next
up into silver, doing a good job pushing
through resistance today, not really
barreling through and establishing
itself that well on top. The resistance
is still doing its job here at 67.99.
So, we'll kick the can into tomorrow to
see if silver can start trading
comfortably above this level and also
putting in a daily close above it. If
so, that opens the door for $72.07
on the charts. Next up into US oil. As I
said, guys, confirmed breakout. Here was
the candle that we broke out with on
August 17th. Chopped ways for two other
days. Now, today confirming that
breakout making this declining trend
line a buying opportunity to go long on
US oil at $80.81.
So, now just look at the leaching
behavior though of US oil going up. That
tells me there's a lot of effort going
on to
have routes
diverted away from the Strait of Hormuz
to get the oil out to the right
countries that are in demand for it.
Otherwise, we likely would be ripping up
as this stalemate continues to drag on
holding oil from a lot of countries in
Europe and also in Asia.
Next up as far as resistance, if this
continues, 96.44
will be a significant test of previous
pivot back here from June 3rd of this
year.
Next up Nat Gas. Just still doing its
thing, guys. Look at the wicks.
Yesterday, a huge wick up here. Today, a
big wick down on the bottom. Look at Nat
Gas doing its thing whipping people in
and out of trades. But, I tell you what,
I'm bullish down here on Nat Gas. We've
hung out here long enough. We're getting
closer towards encroaching on fall and
then winter. And then AI data centers
are also saying they're going to utilize
Nat Gas to power their data centers.
Guys, I just see there being a higher
and higher demand for Nat Gas moving
forward from this point. Can we go down
further? Sure, we can. Anything can
happen, particularly on this stock
called the widow maker. Just plan
accordingly. If you are wanting to go
long, I do see a potential chance that
gas eventually is going to get to this
declining trend line at $3.20.
Next up into Bitcoin continuing its
rally pushing up on the charts. Great
move here on Bitcoin clearly
destroying this neckline from the
inverse head and shoulders pattern
telling me this next target up here
$76,116
has a very high probability of getting
tagged. Now, one obstacle that remains
in front of it before we get there is
right here $74,175.
Those are the high pivots from these
daily candles that occurred back at the
end of May and it's also the low candle
that occurred here on May 23rd. That
area right there should provide some
resistance particularly if we continue
pushing up into that range tomorrow.
Now, look, we are at this daily RSI of
80. Now, Bitcoin can get extended both
on the bottom and on the upper range,
but we are at any given moment and when
the Bitcoin should be putting on the
brakes from this monumental breakout
period that's going on on the charts
right now and that $74,000 mark I
mentioned may very well be that spot
where we start consolidating chopping
sideways before we push up with that
last leg and tag that $76,000 mark for
that near-term measured move. Next up
into Walmart going over some earnings
that did occur today. Now, Walmart beat
on both EPS as well as revenue. However,
you see the result big decline. Now,
their guidance was raised, but it wasn't
raised as much as analysts anticipated
and plus some of the revenue that they
did take in were part of the tariff
refunds. So, a lot of investors saw this
as an opportunity to exit Walmart, but
this is a big deal, guys. Now, look at
Walmart before this happened, all right?
We had a downward move from hitting the
top into this parallel. You could you
could argue this was somewhat bearish
consolidation, a downward move, upward
moving consolidation much like a bear
wedge or a bear pennant, and then of
continued drop, another bear flag,
another drop, another bear flag, another
drop. It's just doing the same thing
over and over, marching its way down the
chart. Now, we find ourselves outside of
the parallel with a daily RSI of 29.78.
That's telling me it's looking for a
spot that it can bounce. And what
happens when price action breaks an
inclining parallel, one that has lasted
almost 3 years, as this started back in
December of 2023.
Well, price action, as we know on this
show, likes to go break that level, find
the next level of support, and then
fight its way back up to test the trend
line in which it had broken from. And
that first level that I see is the 618
fib retrace level. If you see, I'll grab
my fib retracement tool, take that down
to the liberation day lows, to the most
recent all-time highs, and you can see
that comes in right here for the
Fibonacci 618 fib retrace at $100.77
or $76, as well as a gap fill at
$100.61.
Both of those levels combine and stack
right on top of each other, likely
should provide the support needed
capable of providing the bounce up on
Walmart to retest the bottom of that
parallel. Now, where it goes from there,
we'll find out. But, however, generally
that sort of move, if and when it does
happen, you should see rejection on the
chart of Walmart at the point of the
bottom of that parallel channel. But,
upcoming potential trade at hand there
on the chart of Walmart. Next up into
Coinbase. Coinbase following up, uh, on
the lead of Bitcoin yesterday and today,
big huge surge on the chart of Coinbase.
But, look exactly where it stopped,
guys. Simple Simply drawing one trend
line from pivot high to pivot high,
boom, that's exactly where it stopped
with the high today at $174.78.
That shows this is near-term resistance.
Now, the good thing for Coinbase,
Bitcoin, altcoins, you name it, are all
really popping. So, they're starting to
accumulate tons and tons of fees, retail
investors catching euphoria,
um helping them to uh garner some
revenue. But, with this being the case,
it's lower on the charts, guys. This is
not a shortable location that I would be
interested in because we have come down
so far from the highs. We were up near
the $445 range, and now we're talking
about price here getting jammed at $172.
So, what I see from this could be some
near-term consolidation. Now, depending
upon if Bitcoin keeps ripping, if
Bitcoin hits that $74,000 mark and then
starts calming down, we could see a
couple days of consolidation before a
breakout is at hand, and then I'm
looking at $191. In essence, 192, the
top of this green candle from May 29th.
That will likely be the destination uh
near-term for Coinbase to continue
moving up. Very nice potential break at
hand. Need to watch tomorrow, as well as
the following day. One could even argue
we have somewhat of an inverse head and
shoulders pattern, but this sort of head
and shoulders pattern is not necessarily
symmetrical. So, I'm not going to put
out the measured move, but I will
highlight this pivot high should be a
key level of resistance on Coinbase
should and when we see a breakout occur
as early as tomorrow with price getting
above this declining trendline, $174.93.
What's
most important here, you got to put a
daily close above that trendline before
we can start saying, "Hey, Coinbase is
on breakout watch." All right, next up
into LITE, the opposite end of breakout
watch. You can see here LITE did have a
beautiful breakout at hand.
Pushed up higher, tagged the 50% area of
the parallel, now coming back down to
retest this breakout trendline. Now, so
far, price action has bounced from this
area. As a matter of fact, it didn't
even touch this trend line. You can see
that investors are eager to get back
into momentum. This light technology
is certainly going to be big and is big
in data centers.
So, it's actually getting bought up and
with the restrictions coming out of
China, there's more focus on US stocks
with
with light as well as COHR. These
companies are having massive inflow of
potential businesses which has caused
this near-term breakout. Now, the test
will be seen tomorrow and the following
day. Since this bounce occurred so close
to this declining trend line, we can
call that a kiss. In an essence, price
has already bounced up from that level.
So, seeing it continued move close above
today's highs will establish that
continued breakout retrace bounce play,
in which case light should be pushing up
higher back to this 50% area of the
parallel just over a thousand dollars at
a thousand eighteen dollars. Next up,
we've got a viewer request from Alpha
Regulus. And we've got another viewer
request later on from Living Living
Linda. So, thank you guys so much for
being viewers here
of ours on Verified Investing on Trading
the Close. You guys brought up some
great charts, specifically Tilray in
this moment. Let's take a look at this
daily chart. Now, I've been watching
Tilray most recently when it did have
its initial pop here when news broke
about potential rescheduling of
marijuana in the United States from a
schedule one to a schedule three, making
it more accessible to adults, but not
quite getting crossed the threshold of
accessing banks. That's where I think
once and if these medical marijuana
companies can finally start accessing
banks to do business, it will legitimize
their business more. It will allow them
to get more loans. It will allow them to
to conduct a safer business, in which
case then I see more investors jumping
into it. Until that occurs, we can have
little pops like this that happened on
the Tilray stock, and then you can have
a quick fizzle out because a lot of that
hope is literally let out of the
balloon. But, in the near term, we have
coming up on midterms.
So, we could see some legislation put
through that at least secures the first
step on reducing the classification of
marijuana in the United States. And it
almost was foreshadowing this on the
chart. Look here on July 29th, price put
in a daily bottoming tail. And since
then, what has happened? Price has moved
up and put in bullish consolidation.
That is a very nice step to build
momentum and push up to the next
resistance level on the charts right
around 575
up until these low pivots that you see
on the left of my chart from March and
the beginning of April to $6. That's
going to be the first resistance zone
marching up. But guys, this chart can
give you all the history you need to
understand these near-term resistance
levels can be blown through. Whenever
there's good news, this stock can pop
and go, you know, 50% all right? But
then you got to be quick because much
like all of these other pops, that
balloon and hot air is let out very,
very quickly. All right? So, getting
this next step established could push us
as high as where the previous pivot high
was at. But that first level of
resistance 570 to $6 is still intact. It
just matters as far as what legislation
is passed if any can get through uh the
finish line by the midterms of this
year. Uh next up, we've got uh Dick's
Sporting Goods due to report earnings in
just a couple days. And I noticed a
couple really interesting things about
this chart, particularly the last few
days, massive downside movement on this
chart, potentially highlighting where we
could catch support. You could see that
down here, converging trend lines of
support at $167.25.
That convergence occurs back from this
low pivot from May 25th, as well as a
longer-term inclining trend line in
here. I may need to tag the weekly chart
to show you, but this long-term
inclining trend line dating all the way
back to the COVID lows. Look, we've hit
it three times. Once,
twice, three times, and now it's looking
like we're about to hit the fourth time.
All of which have very decent time
frames of being spread out to be hit,
meaning that we're not hitting it over
and over and over and over. These are
very long durations in which price
action has hit this level, telling me
should price continue to plunge down
into this level into earnings or maybe
even post earnings, this could be an
interesting level for a near-term bounce
that could take price up to the bottom
of this M pattern. You see this M
pattern forming forming on the weekly
time frame. That level would be right
around $187.28,
but even if price breaches this
long-term inclining trend line, I
anticipate price to come right back up
to that trend line, and then
optimistically go up to that bottom of
the M, form that A on the right side,
and then at that point, then we could
see more selling pressure. But beautiful
sell going into earnings here on Dick's
Sporting Goods, angling a potential
bounce level that you see displayed
there with that two-factor setup on your
charts. Lastly, we got a viewer request
from a loving Linda, and you can see
here, guys, look at this. This is a
beautiful chart here of Lemonade tagging
bottom level of the parallel channel
once, twice, three times, four times.
However, Linda, I got to say, this looks
like it could be on the verge of
breaking down. Notice how I highlighted
on the last chart with that long-term
trend line getting hit with proper
spacing, much like what was occurring
here on Lemonade in the first half of
this parallel channel. Then we went a
long time before hit, and now we're
hitting it again. That tells me we're
knocking on that door, weakening it more
and more than more we hit it in the near
time frame. Plus, look at the week uh
pardon me, the daily moving averages.
We've got this red 200 moving average
that crossed over the 50 moving average
back here in April. That's a death cross
on the daily time frame, and since then,
look at the spacing that has now
occurred. 200 on top, 50 in the middle,
and the 20 trailing along current price,
all of which is implying the momentum is
downward for LMND. Telling me the next
level of support to watch, $40.49,
a potential break at the bottom of that
parallel, which then can result in price
coming right back up, catching support
at 40.49, coming right back up to retest
the bottom of that parallel right around
$52 for a nice near-term swing trade
opportunity. All right, guys, that wraps
up Trading the Close. Uh even though it
was a calmer day in the market, still
awful lot to go over each and every day.
Thanks for watching throughout the
course of this week. We got Crypto
Combat coming back tomorrow at 1:30.
I'll be on there battling both Gareth
and Lawton for the crown on who could be
the biggest crypto winner and trader in
45 minutes. It's actually a little nuts.
We go into 200x leverage because we got
to capitalize on those moves within
basically 45 minutes or less. So, it's
an awful lot of fun once that we do more
or less for entertainment uh to end up
the week on a high note. All right,
guys, thanks again for watching. Don't
forget to like and subscribe to the
video. Send this out to your friends and
family so they too can learn technical
analysis on the charts. Have a great
weekend, folks, and we'll see you back
here next week on Monday on Trading the
Close. Take care, folks.
>> [snorts]
>> Mhm.