Yields Shake Off Treasury Intervention, Start Climbing Again, Markets Dump, Bitcoin Surges

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hype and narratives every time. Now I
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Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com
and we have more intense action today to
discuss. Remember all charts and data,
no BS here at
yesterday
the US government or Treasury intervened
in the bond market basically saying they
were going to be buying long-dated
bonds. So the 30-year, the 20-year, the
goal is to bring down the long end of
the yield curve. In other words, it's
getting too pricey. It's starting to
cause things to break. The government's
saying, "Oh my goodness, we have to get
our hands in this." Remember, the
government's already got its hands in
stocks like Intel and other ones and the
Fed has already intervened over the last
decade plus since the financial crisis
quite a bit, but it's only going further
now. Now this is where it gets even more
interesting. Today yields are pushing
right back up. So they're basically
giving you the you know what to the
Federal Reserve and the Treasury and
saying, "You know what? You can
intervene and the yields are still going
to go right back up." Now the
intervention was only doubling the buys
from 2 billion to 4 billion, essentially
what you would consider to be a BB gun
versus a bazooka. The question is, is
the market going to force the hand of
the Treasury to use a 100 billion buy or
greater? But remember, the Treasury
can't make money out of thin air. So do
they go to the Federal Reserve and say,
"Hey, you can make money out of thin
air. How do we do this? Bottom line is
Bitcoin ripping, gold ripped yesterday,
the dollar has broken major technical
support. Let's get into all of the
action here. So, here's the S&P futures.
Now, you can see the S&P futures
overnight were basically chopping
sideways, and then all of a sudden
yields on the 10-year, the 30-year began
to climb, and you see a leg down here in
the futures, then the climb stalled out,
and we kind of floated back up. Then
another climb on the S and the the 10
and the 30-year yields or interest
rates, and the market took a big dump.
Now yields are pausing again, and you
can see the market bouncing back. But
look at this pattern formation, and I
love showing this to you guys because I
think it's just absolutely intriguing.
You have a down move, sideways down
move, right? And then a little bit of a
bounce here. If we go to the 10-year
yield, and we go to the 10-year, look at
this. Up move, here let me just bring up
this chart. Up move, sideways, which is
where the bounce came in the futures in
the really early morning, then another
up move here, and remember the futures
dumped out, and now we're pulling back.
So, you see this pattern? It's literally
inverse to this pattern,
and that tells you everything you need
to know based on data and charts why the
market is doing what it is doing. And
again, this speaks to such a bigger
issue out there. So, number one, the
dollar breaking down, that really
imports inflation. Now everyone says,
"Oh well, it's great to bring
manufacturing back to the US." Well,
that's true, but it's still going to
import inflation because again, if we
continue to buy things overseas with a
weaker dollar, those goods are going to
cost more. So, this is really
complicating things. A weaker dollar is
not necessarily good. It's good for
equities, but for citizens, it means
inflation is stickier for longer, which
then reverses the pressure that the
Treasury is trying to put on yields to
push them down by pushing them back up.
You see how this works? There's almost
no good solution here. It's all about
postponement. And I said it yesterday
and I'll say it again. How long can the
Federal Reserve and the the government
keep the economy on life support by
giving it drugs? You can postpone the
inevitable, but like I said, this is
something that it's a train wreck in
slow motion and it is going to wreck
nasty down the line. Now, when I say
down the line, remember, I'm looking
more at the 100-year cycle, so around
2030 from the Great Depression, that
likely will be it. It looks like we're
starting to see the seeds being sown
already though of what is to come. All
right, back to the charts. Here we go.
Markets again getting a bounce as yields
are coming in just a little bit. The
dollar here today, I mean, look at this,
guys. It just continues to come down and
this trend line here was the breakpoint.
That again, you have the down move. Do
you guys know what type of pattern this
is above this trend line?
What type of pattern is it when price
drops and then consolidate slightly
sideways to up in the lower area of
that? For those of you that are new, you
may not know. If you followed me for a
long enough time, that's what we call a
bear flag. So, the chart on the dollar
was already signaling a breakdown was
going to come and that's exactly what
has happened. Where is the dollar going
to find support? Chances are it's going
to find support in this vicinity right
here, right around this 98 level, and
we're not that far away at this point.
So, watch that 98 level, and again,
we'll see if at that point can we get an
actual bounce in the US dollar. The
30-year yield, look at this. So, this
was yesterday's daily candle down, and
look at today. And again, it literally
looks like a finger sticking up towards
the Treasury, right? And again, I'm
being facetious and and and but the
point is is that the markets are
basically saying that you can put
lipstick on a pig, but you can't change
the fact that it's a pig, right? And I
think that's the basis for what the
interest rate is saying here. Now, will
they come out with bigger guns and try
to do a bigger buy of long-term debt? If
we don't see yields coming down,
absolutely. If there's one thing I know
about the government, they will try to
do whatever they can to postpone the
inevitable depression or massive
recession down the line. So, there's
still levers to be pulled, but keep in
mind those levers are slowly running out
over time. All right, so that's where we
are at this point. The 10-year yield, we
already looked at the 10-minute chart
here. You can see again, here's your
daily candle on the 10-year yield, and
it is basically reversing almost 100% of
what we have seen here on the down move
from yesterday's intervention. Now, is
there something that can truly bring in
yields? And the answer is partially.
If we were to see the economy slow, then
you would see just by nature of consumer
spending less and less and less, yields
probably would come in a little bit. But
they're not going back to COVID levels.
It's just not going to happen. There's
way too much inherent inflation in the
system, and ultimately we've made our
bed as a country. The world has made it
to bed with any big country fiat
currency-wise with debt in Japan and
debt all over. To be fair, Germany is
probably the one gold standard for
minimal amounts of debt to GDP. Everyone
else,
the egg is cooked at this point. It's
just a matter of ticking away until the
inevitable. All right, so how do we
protect against this? You guys know.
Bitcoin, if you believe in Bitcoin,
digital gold maybe, gold obviously
gold's had a massive move. Lots of other
ways. I'm a more of a trader, so I can
be in and out, but ultimately again, the
inevitable will come at some point. Now,
let's go to a couple other things today.
One of the things we are watching
closely is crude oil. Crude oil is
popping here. Is it on the verge of a
breakout above the wedge pattern? You
can see this bigger wedge pattern. The
answer is maybe, we don't know yet. Why
don't we know? Well,
my trend line, it pierces here, pierces
here, touches here, and then pierces
here as well. So, we don't know which is
the accurate trend line here. Could it
be this one right here? Maybe, in which
case we don't know, and this is why we
use the confirmation signal that I
created, which is you have to close
above a major trend line, and you don't
know if it's a breakout yet. What you
then want to see is a secondary stronger
close in the subsequent day that above
the previous high. If that happens, the
odds strongly favor a breakout. But,
needless to say, there's still a lot of
rhetoric between Iran and the US going
on. Again, I'm very doubtful that we'll
see any sort of military action before
the midterms, but I will say, if the
midterms come and go, and there is no
solution, once the elections are over,
and Iran probably likely is aware of
this, is that there will be nothing
holding the president back from doing
something more dramatic in terms of
troops on the ground or something else.
Now, he may not just choose not to do
it, but first of all, he can't be
reelected as a president, so he's not on
the line, and second of all, there's no
new elections for the Republicans for 2
more years. So, there's a lot of time.
And so, just something we want to pay
attention to. Well, I don't think
there'll be military action before the
midterms, if we get to the midterms and
no deal has been struck, it is possible
that hostilities militarily will resume.
All right, so we'll keep an eye on that.
All right, what else is going on? Gold
is pulling back a little bit today after
that huge move up yesterday. Gold went
into the $4,500 level right here. You
can see on the charts this pivot low
here cuts right through all this
consolidation before the breakdown. That
is where we went to, so you have a
little bit of resistance here, but
either way gold again continues to shine
as one of the best performers over the
last couple weeks when comparing it to
obviously stocks and other things. Now,
Bitcoin on the other hand has been
amazing. We'll look at that in a second.
Silver, yes, it was a good pop
yesterday, but right back into this
trend line. Silver is pausing today. You
still have to break through this level
on silver. This trend line goes all the
way back to October of 2025 through the
low in June 2026. We then broke down
below it, came back right to it,
rejected, and now we're stalling out
here. Is it building a base to break
out? It might be, especially if we see
the overall situation with bonds
and the dollar continue to worsen.
Okay.
We talked about natural gas yesterday in
the game plan. It looked like it was
trying to break out and then it all fell
apart and you could see again it was
breaking above this key trend line here
and by the end of the day it was right
back down and today we're even inching
down a little bit. Now, we will get
natural gas inventories coming out
shortly and speaking of which I should
mention that jobless claims today, which
is a weekly economic number, came in at
206,000,
basically in line with estimates. That
again is nothing to worry about. It's
people filing for unemployment. Like I
say, at 250 you start to take notice of
people 250,000 per week filing for
unemployment. You're like, "Okay, that's
getting a little concerning." And then
at 300,000,
it's there. It's usually a recession.
We're at 200,000. So, we're not there in
terms of the filings for unemployment.
Doesn't mean people aren't suffering,
though. We know that inflation is
crushing anyone that's not heavily
invested in the stock market that's able
to offset it with what we've seen there.
All right. Lastly, we need to go to
Bitcoin, guys, because Bitcoin, what a
move here. Take a look. Again, I gave
you about as direct a heads-up as I
could without literally pulling the
buttons or pressing the buttons for you.
I continued to emphasize it was a
breakout above the trendline, charging
the battery, and off to the races. The
question now becomes, where is
resistance? And the resistance level,
I'm going to show you on this other
chart here. Let me bring it up. It's
right here.
So, take a look. This is where Bitcoin
should run into major resistance between
basically 70 just below 74,000
and 75,300.
Pivot highs, all right? Then pivot lows
in here.
And then this consolidation before the
breakdown. And then in addition, if you
take this high to this low, your 618
Fibonacci is right here as well. And so
for me, if Bitcoin continues to push up,
I will continue to unload my crypto
positions as we get closer and closer.
Will I hold a little bit past this
level? Yeah, I I usually like to have a
little skin in the game, but at that at
this point, I probably have taken a
majority of my crypto assets off the
table that I had bought and heavily
bought in the lower ranges where I was
talking about a breakout having
occurred. It was an amazing move, folks.
But again, when you look at sentiment
and how negative it was, people again,
every time I would do a crypto video or
talk crypto, "Ah, it's done. It's never
doing, you know, oh, it stinks. And then
even the bulls were so cautious like,
oh, I don't know if it's the bottom. You
know, and by the way, I don't know if
it's the bottom, but I did see the chart
breakout in the short term. I don't
necessarily think the cycle low is in,
but you can have bare market rallies. In
fact, they're very common and they are
rip your face off rallies. They are
tremendous moves and we're seeing this
on Bitcoin surging from 62,000 to 72,000
in basically a couple days. Incredible
move there. All right. So, let's
continue on here. We're going to get
into stocks. Walmart reported earnings
this morning. Let's take a look. That
stock is getting trounced here. And this
again, remember, people were trading
down to Walmart from higher end
retailers and now they're even
struggling at Walmart. And that tells
you everything you need to know about
what is going on. And again, Walmart is
taking a hit today. This is down about 6
to 7% which for Walmart historically,
that is a big, big move. So, keep that
in mind. Now, as a trader, where am I
starting to eye Walmart? And I'll show
you here. There's a key couple levels.
As a day trade, I really like the 10380
level right here. This pivot high, this
pivot low, and then the gap fill here at
100 bucks basically. That actually could
be a good swing trade level for a
short-term bounce. So, watch those two
levels today. Pivot one, pivot two. And
you can see even this one stretches all
through these lows. So, this one should
really be good. This one probably just a
quick day trade. Alibaba reported
earnings. That stock is falling.
Remember, recently Baidu reported
earnings and their earnings were not
great either. And we're really seeing
the Chinese economy struggling due to
the major drop off in real estate there.
Remember that years ago, the Chinese
government funded non-stop projects to
build cities that literally no one was
living in. Um
because it was stimulative. Well, guess
what? Now they stopped doing that and
now you have the real estate crash,
right? So again, they're going through
their own, in my opinion, great
recession like the US did back in '07,
'08, '09. They will emerge and I am
starting to say that these charts on
Alibaba, Baidu, and some of these other
China ones, the PE ratios are so low
compared to our tech stocks that I'm
starting to take more intrigue and note
of that as a swing trade mid to longer
term. So again, I don't think they're
turning around anytime soon, like in the
next week or so, but I do think
something like this for me at least is
where I start to look at accumulating.
Remember, just like with Bitcoin, when
things look their worst, that's usually
when we want to start stepping up and
inching into positions.
This one's an interesting one, Advanced
Auto Parts getting slammed about 20%
on earnings. And again, this is another
one where you have to say, "Hey, listen,
the retail, you know, buyer going to
Advanced Auto Parts to buy things for
their car, they're just pulling back on
spending." It just is what it is. Big
drop here today. Where's our first
technical level? First technical level
will be around 43 and change. It
actually already hit that pre-market.
I'm going to focus in on 4130, this gap
fill. So this first one, it already hit
pre-market, off the table. 4130 is a gap
fill and then double bottom at 3865.
These would be my two key levels to
watch today. One swing trade.
I love this swing trade setup, folks. It
has been basically working for me
non-stop. I shouldn't say non-stop cuz
nothing's non-stop, right? But high
probability trade setup is a short on
Eli Lilly. Take a look at this chart,
guys. I love charts like this. Some of
my favorite action comes off of this. An
ascending trend line through major pivot
highs. Every time it hits, it gets
rejected. Every time it hits, it's at a
higher level, which means it's more
overbought. RSI divergence is starting
to appear. This one to me, and I picked
this up with smart money stocks and ETF
members yesterday at 1292 and change.
So, we're already in the money on this.
This one is one of my favorite shorts
here for a pullback to about 1150. If it
breaks 1150, we're looking at the
potential for it to go down to about
$1,000. Now, before I go, one more
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got to get going, guys. My trading room
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action. If you're not in one of the
services at Verified Investing, we're
crushing it. Commodities,
crypto, holy cow, crypto gained like
100k in the last 24 to 48 hours in terms
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that we had positioned ourselves on. And
the stock portfolio continues to crush
it. We're almost up 20% on the
million-dollar portfolio for the year.
And again, my goal there is always just
beat the S&P. Beat the S&P non-stop.
We're going to do it. All right. Have a
great rest of your day. Thanks so much
for tuning in. I'll talk to you soon.
Take care.