Yields Drop As Treasury Debt Buyback Ignites Market Rally

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close and I want to thank Gareth and
Lawton first of all for covering me
yesterday and the day before while I was
out, but I'm happy to be back with you
guys and guys we had tons of news to hit
the markets today mainly all before the
market when percent then added into the
market fuel to the fire saying that he's
going to double up buying back the US
debt. That sent the 10-year yield
crashing and initially sent the markets
ripping higher, but then tech ended up
finishing the day in the negative. So
did the semis finish in the negative.
We're going to get into that in a few
moments and display on those charts how
that's happening plus the positioning on
the SMH most importantly as I've used
that as my barometer for the bullish and
bearish nature of the markets in the
near term. Lastly, we're going to get
into MRNA today that pushed up over 100%
guys and usually whenever that happens
when we're looking at stocks pushing up
to crazy amounts, we're saying the stock
didn't cure cancer, but you know what
MRNA may be on the verge of helping out
those folks with melanoma. So let's get
into some charts and go over some data
that occurred today. So first up in the
S&P 500 that did end up today in the
green, but you can see on this daily
candle up here. We were all the way up
here near the 772
and 47 cent mark before we finished the
day down here at 769. So we had a decent
decline on the 10-minute chart that you
see. We did gap up, sold off and
rocketed up. It was looking like at
11:00 these markets weren't going to
stop and we're going to continue
floating up, but then all of that
changed towards the end of the day and
part of that is if you really think
about it,
what percent did today was in essence is
he injected liquidity into the markets.
He in essence made the value of the
dollar decrease. All of us out here in
the world that are holding dollars just
saw our dollars degenerate just right in
our hands and we didn't do anything
about it. And so really what has
happened is he put a band-aid what I
consider over a gushing wound, a wound
that would require statures or staples
or even sutures. And guys, this was this
was a big uh
help for the markets, but that's not
going to solve the problems. Our
problems are amounting debts that are
just uncontrollable. The financing, the
servicing to pay off our debt is going
to be more than our national defense.
And so when we get those bigger numbers,
there's only so long that we can
postpone paying that debt down. And one
of which ways percent and it seems like
our government's just attuned to is
printing more money. And at least for
the near term coming up to the midterms,
that's at least going to put a little
band-aid over the gushing wound in my
opinion. But okay, spider still remain
positive on the day despite coming down
towards the end of the day as I said, I
think a lot of investors started
realizing that this
this move wasn't going to fix the
problem. And then after this huge pop
started selling into it. And we saw that
with the risk on tech stocks as you see
here too. We were moving up higher
today.
And then we did end up lower finishing
the day down point two percent. Now it
wasn't a big down day, but this
amounting debt is starting to weigh on
the markets in particular with the
10-year yield that just continued to
rise without the FOMC declaring any sort
of rate hikes. They were letting the
markets really take care of it
themselves. And then as I said, percent
steps in and then just really pushes
that 10-year down. We should be ripping
higher on these stocks in the QQQ, but
that's not happening today because still
there's some lingering concern about
that debt. Next up, same thing here on
the SMH, down 1.55%.
Now, where did the SMH go and catch
support though? If you look here at this
long-term inclining parallel channel,
one that I've had intact on this chart
since the liberation days lows down here
in April of 2025. Notice on the top end,
we tagged that top end here in October
of 2025. Then we eventually broke out of
it with what is our signature in this
show, a breakout retrace bounce play on
the chart of the SMH. Now, if we fast
forward into today, we see we caught the
top end of that parallel channel and
have since closed above it. We did that
again back here in July 27th, but what
happened after that date? A gap down
into the parallel, caught support at the
50% area of the parallel, and then just
bounced right out of this parallel
continuing back up to the neckline. We
could see a very similar occurrence
happen in the coming days. Be mindful of
the top of this parallel tomorrow,
559.30.
If we do put a close inside that
parallel tomorrow, probabilities are
dictating we're coming down to this 50%
area of the parallel at $526.26.
Next up into the 10-year yield, as I've
discussed earlier, we did drop pretty
substantially today, down 1.15%
closing here at 4.63%.
All right, so mainly getting underneath
this resistance level of 4.687%.
Very nice decline and also from
yesterday's highs. This was a nice drop,
but still guys, it's in consolidation.
We're not out of the woods yet. Look at
what this move did to our dollar, which
I'm stressing to you guys, did not help
the scenario one bit. Our dollar is
going to go less as we see the value of
it decline sharply in just one day of
activity. Now, getting underneath this
50% area of this parallel. Now, notice
I've got not only this parallel, but
I've got a rising inclining trend line
that was highlighting we were about to
break before this news event occurred.
You see, we were putting in bearish
consolidation. Now, we fell from up here
when we intervened with the yen and
dollar while we
tried to balance out the yen because it
was not looking good and then that
dropped our dollar, putting us in
bearish consolidation and then we
stepped up and then buy US debt, that
sinks our dollar even further. Just in
the matter of the last few weeks, our
dollar has reduced almost 3% down 2.85%
on the chart. Now, closing under the 50%
area of the parallel, we'll see if we
get a follow through tomorrow and if we
do, we could be targeting the bottom
range down here at 96.96
on the chart of the dollar. Next up into
gold. Now, gold did lift off very nicely
today. Silver did, too, but it didn't
get above the consolidation. We'll get
into that chart here in a moment. But,
as you see here, mainly getting clearly
above which was resistance at 4,333
even tagging that level today before
rocketing up above this bullish
consolidation, putting in a daily close
up here above that consolidation. Very
nice move. This bull flag measured move
puts us just shy of this secondary
resistance level at 4,770.
Notice also how this resistance level
comes straight into contact with these
high pivots back here in May of 2026.
That likely will be the main resistance
area for this near-term run considering
this bull flag pattern does carry a
measured move just shy of that level.
So, I anticipate some pausing to happen
at 4575,
maybe even a little consolidating to
occur and then next step up here to this
4,700
level. Next up into silver. Silver, as
you see here also a nice robust push up
5% but it's not clearing this
consolidation top in which it had been
trading since back here in August 10th.
So that needs to be accomplished first,
put in a daily close above it, then put
in a secondary close above that as well.
We very well could get that today with
silver. I'll be watching this over the
next 30 minutes to see if we get at
least that first item on the checklist
crossed off. Next resistance though
beyond both of those closes is at 67.99.
So not far away there for silver. Into
US oil. Guys, I've been meaning to talk
to you about this for the last few days.
We broke out on US oil on Friday, right?
Then Monday, Tuesday, what have we done
guys? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. As we
see here with the peace deals in the
Middle East somewhat in limbo if you
would say that you can obviously argue
to escalation from Iran
and also just a lot of fog of war going
on as to what the big impacts are going
to be for this straight remaining
closed. I know that Saudi Arabia as well
as other countries have already been
building pipelines getting themselves
away from the Strait of Hormuz. So the
longer that this goes on meaning the
blockade, the less effect it's actually
going to have on the price of oil as
countries are diverting away resources
to ensure that they still can get the
products that they want. So into the
chart of US oil, we still haven't gotten
the confirming breakout. As I said here,
we broke above and I misspoke. It was
Monday in which we finally broke above
and you see here we didn't put any
follow through move with conviction
moving a higher above the breakout
candle. Notice we tried to do that back
here on July 23rd but that didn't occur
with any follow up movement thus we came
right back down underneath that
declining trend line. To remind you
where this declining trend line comes
from, this is back here from the high on
April 7th connected over to the pivot
top here on April 30th. As you can see a
failed breakout attempt, another
rejection, rejection with consolidation
implying momentum was building for a
breakout. We just haven't gotten any
continuing follow-up moves. If and when
we do, resistance up here at 9644,
support would be on this declining trend
line with a breakout retrace bounce play
on the chart there for US oil. Next up
into NAT gas, beautiful push up earlier
on the day in NAT gas, but it's
finishing with what appears to be a
daily topping tail. Now, I know this
wouldn't qualify for an official topping
tail, but that's not really good sell
signal from the top. NAT gas is just
known to do this. And so, mainly,
where's it closing? It's closing within
the bullish consolidation. So, all this
price action today shows us we had a
failed breakout on one day. We'll see
tomorrow if price remains within this
candle. That's what you want to see as a
NAT gas bull. You don't want to see this
failed breakout result in a further
downward move on NAT gas. Regardless, I
still like this area to accumulate some
NAT gas as I eventually see NAT gas
going higher, at least attacking this
declining trend line and more often than
not actually coming up here to the $3.55
level on the chart with that inclining
trend line. So, interesting price action
today. We'll follow it tomorrow to see
if price is within today's daily candle
as that would still remain bullish near
term for NAT gas. Uh next up, another
huge groundbreaking move, guys. Look at
this. The last few days have been
monumental for Bitcoin starting right
here on Monday. This huge green candle
got price action back above this
inclining trend line. This was, if you
remember and recall from last week, the
area in which I was planning how if
Bitcoin were to confirm under this
declining trend line, we were in bad
shape for Bitcoin. Now, it saved itself
on Monday regaining not only this
inclining trend line, but then followed
it up today breaking back within the
parallel and then finally breaking the
inverse head and shoulders pattern,
triggering the measured move up here to
$76,116
on Bitcoin. That's where price has the
probabilities to go in the near term as
long as price remains above this
declining trend line, which is the
neckline of the inverse head and
shoulders pattern at $66,631.
Great push here on Bitcoin today, and
that wasn't only contained on this
chart. It spilled over into all sorts of
altcoins, one of which we'll cover, one
of the most important in my opinion, is
Ethereum. Ethereum here has a lot of
participation, and you can see most
recently with price action. Now, Bitcoin
was struggling on the verge of breaking
down, but Ethereum was doing a pretty
good job holding itself on the daily
time frame back within this blue
parallel channel. Now, we see price
separating itself very nicely from this
bullish consolidation with a high range
of about $1,980.
Now, pushing comfortably into the $2,000
price range. So, where can price go
next?
Very next stop for Ethereum, I'm seeing
for resistance coming from a trend line
drawn on this pivot low right here in
the middle of the chart, November 21st,
2025. Take that trend line right across
the pivot highs that occurred over here
in April of 2026, and that gives us a
target for this near term pop right at
$2,346.
Now, if Ethereum can get above that,
potentially even put in like a little
rejection pattern here, you see what
that would form, an inverse head and
shoulders pattern, where I think the
ultimate destination of Ethereum is
going to go is to the bottom of this
inclining trend line. You can see most
of price action has been contained above
this one yellow inclining trend line.
We've had periods of time where Ethereum
has dipped underneath, much like what
has occurred most recently, and then now
Ethereum is fighting its way to get back
up to that trend line by the time we get
into October, that value is over $3,000.
At $3,019,
that's where I see the ultimate
destination for Ethereum. Of course,
it's got to fight to get above this
trend line first, but once and if it
does, that opens up a lot of room for
Ethereum to run up to that inclining
trend line. Next up, guys, into MRNA,
176%
and it's not done yet. Yet, guys, look
at this. Pushing up after hours, $191.
Now, MRNA was on a downward spiral for
quite a long time after COVID, coming
down and selling off even more. Today,
clearly broke out of that declining
parallel channel since they have
developed more vaccines as well as
treatments in their portfolio. This
breakout potentially has staying power,
folks. So, be watching this for any sort
of pullbacks down here to the 130-135
dollar range, even if you're a little
bit more conservative, right on top of
this consolidation, right around $125.
As we do have a breakout underway, we
just need to see a retrace. I don't
think this retrace is going to get all
the way back down to the top of this
parallel channel down at $89.24.
If you're a conservative trader and you
want to wait for that, by all means, go
ahead and wait as we do have a pivot
that is very, very close to that level,
too. And by the time price comes into
it, it very well may hit that trend line
and the pivot at the same point, right
around $86.55.
But, I I would rather leg into this
position with this great, robust news
about MRNA potentially
at a stage three process of having
successful results with stage four
cancer, man. That's just That's
fantastic. That just makes me so happy.
I hope it's true. I hope everything
that's going on here with their research
and development continues and spreads
into all the other
forms of cancer so we can finally start
tackling this
with high success rates. That would just
be I would be so ecstatic. I would just
want to see no technicals involved in
this thing go to a million bucks. But we
know technicals are at play no matter
what chart is on the screen so guys just
be mindful of a potential pullback back
down here to this consolidation. That
would be a green light buy to get back
into this momentum play that's literally
ripping off the charts. Next up into
Merck who also
worked with mRNA to create this
fantastic
oncology treatment. However, it did not
get all the love that mRNA did today.
Look at this up 12.6%. Now I've also got
an inclining parallel in which price has
broken out of on MRK which is a very
nice break. So what you want to see if
you want to play this momentum, you got
to wait for a following move tomorrow,
close above this candle high then wait
for retraces back down to the top of the
parallel at $148.31.
That will be the breakout retrace bounce
play but I caution you whenever this
trend line is angled upwards
like an inclining trend line that it
breaks, it's harder for that momentum to
remain because guys look, we're already
overbought. So where's price going to go
when it's overbought? It likely pulls
back or at best if you're a bull it
consolidates and goes sideways. But
since we're overbought, we are at a
breakout scenario so technically we need
to see follow through and then we could
buy the breakout. But the problem with
that is just a little too much overdone
in the near term so it makes it more
difficult to buy those sort of breakout
retrace plays. However, it happened on
the SMH so it could also happen on this
chart. getting the technicals and
analyzing them when we see them and
where would MRK go if this breakout
continues? Here's the destination folks,
right up here just under a $170. That's
a trend line taken from a pivot high
back here in January of '23, connected
over to the pivot that occurred in March
of '24. That's where we're going to find
resistance if this rally continues
marching up, even as overbought as it
is. It's going to be very hard for MRK
to get over this in one go without some
substantial pullback, uh, considering
the overbought nature of that stock.
With gold ripping up, let's check out
Newmont Mining. Now, Newmont Mining we
covered a while ago, and I don't cover
it that often. I generally don't cover
miners that frequently. However, this
chart is just It's got education written
all over it. Something that I want to go
over with you guys. So, first off, let's
start down here. You can see I've got a
line drawn with the bear flag boundary
at $98.93.
Notice here on August 4th, price action
did bump up, and really this was
describing exactly what it says. We've
had a bear flag developing on this chart
since June, and that does imply we will
go lower. But, when we have failed
moves, in essence, this bear flag
implying to go lower when price broke up
above it here on August 5th, this was a
monumental failed move. One of which
should have caught our eye. I know I
recognized this pushing up. I just
didn't see the confirmation move, and by
the time it happened, oh my gosh, it's
so far away. So, you can see in this one
day of August 5th, it broke above the
bear flag boundary, and broke above this
declining trend line. Followed it up
with consolidation for 1 day. Generally,
it takes about 3 to 7 days to
consolidate. That just showed the
momentum behind this miner, and it
accelerated up without even providing a
retrace to the broken trend line. So,
this this stock, no doubt, overdone in
the near term. You could see here,
basically at the point of breakout, we
were encroaching upon the 70 on the RSI.
This was implying what I was
anticipating a potential move up and
then a pullback to break down that RSI.
That would have been the buy level.
However, sometimes we don't get our
retraces, which is why some folks may
just buy on the point of breakout. It's
a little bit more risky. However, in
this case, it would have paid off as and
as Newmont has just accelerated up on
the charts. Now, where can we go from
here? Next key resistance at $129.62
and the all-time highs at 134, but as
I've said, one of those two is likely
going to reject price cuz we're just too
overbought near term. We're likely going
to have rejection and or consolidation
in this zone right around 130 to 135
dollars. Lastly, guys, with the big pop
on Bitcoin, we got to cover MSTR. And
unlike what occurred on Newmont with
this bear flag boundary getting broken
on August 5th, we did not yet have that
occur here on the MSTR chart. As you can
see here, MSTR has been in a nice bear
flag down here at the bottom of the
chart ever since back here in June as
well. So, we've not been able to breach
this. That level is at $104.78
after hours. MSTR is finally doing that.
Now, the positive notes for MSTR, it has
fought to get back within this parallel
channel. So, the positive things, it's
gotten in and it's remained within. So,
the next checklist for it to check off,
put a daily close above this 104.78,
and then we'll zoom back out on the
chart to show you where I think price is
going. As you can see here, I've got a
trend line drawn all the way back to the
pivot high from February of 21, guys.
And you notice here when price has gone
above, it's pierced it, but it's caught
support every time, and then we've gone
up above it, come back down, pierced it,
bounced. So, that tells me this is a
significant level on the charts, one of
which we likely will go run to if we get
a daily close above 104.78. That value
is at $131.50.
Then beating that opens the door for a
potential move up here to the 50% area
of the parallel, but we're not going to
put that in the bank yet as we still got
a lot of work for MSTR to do, as well as
Bitcoin to continue moving up on that
chart. All right, guys. That wraps up
trading the close. Thank you guys so
much for watching. Please don't forget
to like this, thumb it up, send it out
to your friends and family so they too
can learn technical analysis in the
charts. Guys, got a ton of info today.
I'm sure that's not going to change
tomorrow. I look forward to being back
here with you then. Until then, guys,
have a safe day and I'll see you on the
charts. Take care, everybody.
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