Rates, AI and trade tensions test markets near record highs 8/24/26

 Hey Ontario, come on down to Bet MGM Casino and see what our newest exclusive The Price
 Is Right Fortune Pick has to offer.
 Don't miss out!
 Play exciting casino games based on the iconic game show, only at Bet MGM.
 Check out how we've reimagined three of the show's iconic games, like Plinco, Cliffhanger,
 and The Big Wheel into fun casino game features.
 Don't forget to download the Bet MGM Casino app for exclusive access and excitement on the
 Price Is Right Fortune Pick.
 Pull up a seat and experience the Price Is Right Fortune Pick, only available at Bet MGM
 Casino.
 Bet MGM in game sense reminds you to play responsibly, 19 plus to wager, Ontario only.
 Please play responsibly.
 If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact
 Connects Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge.
 Bet MGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with eye-gaming Ontario.
 The new Red Bull Dragonberry and Tropic Berry energizers, now at McDonald's, made with
 freeze-dried fruit, and an electric burst of flavor.
 The all new Red Bull energizers, now at McDonald's.
 This product may not be right for you, high in caffeine details on McDonald's.ca and participating
 in Canadian restaurants excluding Quebec.
 Tensions rise, NASDAQ Futures sink, I'm Dominic Chouin.
 This is your morning call.
 Good morning, I'm Dominic Chouin from Morgan Brennan, checking US equity futures right
 now after the S&P and NASDAQ snapped three week winning streaks last week, and right
 now we're relatively stable, relatively flat, the Dow's implied higher by a modest 11 points.
 The S&P down by about 18, but the NASDAQ trade down by about 168 points, that tech trade
 will focus on a little more in just a bit.
 Taking a look at treasuries right now, interest rates a key focus on this big week ahead
 for the Fed and Jackson Hole.
 Right now the benchmark 10 year no yield drifting slightly lower to just a hair below 4.71%,
 the two year no yield, 4.221% and the 30 year long bond you can see right there, 5.248%.
 I'll look at the value of the US dollar.
 Take a look at those because we have been seeing a little bit of movement here with regard
 to the dollar.
 It's up one quarter of 1% right now, but you can see over the course of the past week,
 we've seen a decline in the value of the green back against major trading partners
 right now, checking cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin working to push towards the $80,000 mark.
 Right now those prices down fractionally about 4.10% of 1% lower to 77,064 Ethereum prices,
 $2,456 and then Solana at $94 and 4 cents.
 Energy also, as we await those new economic sanctions on Iran by the US, we'll have more
 in that story in just a moment, but meanwhile, oil prices for benchmark US, West Texas
 is in immediate $84.97 off 2.5% ice-bred crude futures, the world gauge off about 1.5%
 to $92.82.
 Now to our top story and the collapse and trade talks between the US and Canada.
 The US imposing 50% tariffs on some Canadian products on Saturday after the talks fell
 apart late Friday.
 This after negotiators for both sides have been working on a deal all last week at times
 signaling an agreement was possibly near.
 Now the lack of an agreement impacts roughly $20 billion in Canadian exports that includes
 wine, furniture, dairy products, cement, clothing, fishing rods and even hockey equipment
 as well.
 In response, Canada said it would impose its own retaliatory tariffs beginning on September
 8th.
 The Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking on that decision on Saturday.
 We take this step reluctantly.
 Reluctantly because we recognize that some of these measures will raise costs and reduce
 choice for Canadians.
 Reluctantly because we recognize that some US companies and some US states are innocent
 bystanders in a dispute that they did not want.
 Reluctantly because this trade dispute is preventing Canada and America from doing so
 much good that we could do together.
 Now Carney added that additional details on those new measures would be released in the
 coming days previously noting that the retaliatory measures would be dollar for dollar.
 Speaking on Saturday, US trade representative Jamison Greer said that there are no new plan
 talks with Canada.
 Now turning to the latest in the war with Iran, investors are waiting what Washington is
 calling the toughest ever sanctions against Tehran.
 Treasury Secretary Scott Besent is set to unveil a new package of sanctions against that
 country later on today, dummy it economic D-Day, quote unquote, ahead of that move Tehran
 dismissed the threat of intensified economic pressure.
 Well Dan Murphy is of course tracking all the latest in the Middle East and Abu Dhabi
 and Yunus Yun is following how China is positioning itself as a possible peacemaker with Iran ahead
 of those sanctions and Dan we're going to begin with you.
 Tom Good morning.
 Well the countdown is on and in the coming hours we're going to learn just how far the
 administration is willing to go to wage economic warfare on the Iranian regime.
 Oil prices are selling into the news this morning as you've just flagged because details
 are still thin but we understand the White House has prepared what it's calling the toughest
 ever sanctions campaign against Iran and the fallout could extend well beyond Tehran.
 In a blistering op-ed for the financial times this morning Treasury Secretary Scott Besent
 not holding back he calls it the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against
 an adversary.
 He says the US is entering the end game with the objective here to sever every economic
 lifeline that sustains the tyrannical regime he says until Tehran stands alone.
 Now that offers a preview of what Treasury could announce later today, likely a fresh
 round of sanctions on foreign oil buyers on banks on shipping companies and other intermediaries.
 We could also see expanded secondary sanctions here that would force foreign entities to choose
 between trading with Iran or accessing the US financial system.
 That's Washington basically saying Dom you're either with us or against us.
 Now China which is historically the largest buyer of Iranian oil is likely to be a central
 target here.
 And just last week the UAE already halted all trade commercial exchanges and financial
 transactions with Iran, Abu Dhabi offering no detail on how that suspension would work
 but the UAE and Dubai in particular has long been a vital trading gateway for Iran.
 So Dom we're expecting to learn more once those measures are announced or lies on exactly
 what the Treasury Secretary has to say later today.
 Dan as we await those comments and those details can you take us through just how much the
 Iranian regime as we know it right now will actually respond to this.
 They've been under sanctions for decades at this point now how much more needs to be
 done for them to actually change their behavior.
 Well Dom Tehran is really responding with a threat of its own this morning.
 Actually Iran's national security chief Mohsen Reza says if the economic war continues
 not a single drop of oil will be exported neither through the straight up or moves nor
 from anywhere in the Persian Gulf.
 Iran is also saying this morning that it's going to regard any country's participation
 in or support for America's war against the Iranian people as an act of war.
 So that warning could mean disrupting oil shipments across the Gulf or renewed attacks on
 regional energy infrastructure Tehran's response is going to be very closely watched but again
 what type of impact this could actually have on the regime is also going to be very closely
 watched and whether or not these measures announced by the United States will go far enough
 to change the tone from Tehran.
 It's back to you.
 All right Dan Murphy and Abu Dhabi Lalit are on the Iranian side now let's turn from
 Tehran to Beijing with Yunus Yun with more on how China is positioned itself as a possible
 peacemaker with Iran ahead of those new U.S. sanctions units.
 That's right, Donald.
 Beijing is attempting to present itself as the alter ego to Washington in an unusual move
 on Sunday.
 The Chinese foreign ministry posted a statement about a meeting a week ago between Chinese
 and Iranian officials where the Chinese side was quoted as saying that Beijing is actively
 committed to promoting peace talks to resolve Iran war.
 Now the goal is likely to portray China as a responsible global actor and also possibly
 to forestall potential U.S. action against itself.
 This is indicated that the pressure campaign would not only target Iran but also countries
 that support Iran and China as Dan had mentioned is the biggest consumer of Iranian oil exports
 and also a very important trading partner for Iran.
 Now the backdrop to China's position is that the economy here has not been as poorly impacted
 as one might think by the Iran war or by the turmoil in the state of war.
 In fact, just today, Chinese oil refiner Sinopec announced half-year profits up 19%, that's
 despite the war, due to stronger pricing and bigger sales.
 Now we don't know if Secretary Besant is going to be announcing any specific measures
 that would target China but there is an expectation that if China is targeted, it does have a
 card up its sleeve which is probably would be willing to use and those are rare earth
 curves.
 Let's see how markets in Europe and Asia are shaping up given all of that, Elaine
 Yu is in Hong Kong with the latest there and Steve Sedgwick is in London and Elaine,
 we will start with you first.
 Hey Dom, so AI is still the main theme here, Alibaba plunged as much as 10% today and
 closed 8.5% lower after the Chinese tech giant announced a 10.2 billion dollar share placement
 to non-US investors to fund its AI push.
 The new shares are being sold at a sharp discount to Friday's close 8.4%, and that is raising
 concerns about dilution.
 And this move comes just days after Alibaba posted a 75% quarterly drop in profits, primarily
 due to heavy AI related spending.
 Now the AI trade is also under pressure in South Korea, Samsung Electronics plunged
 8.7% today after a record shareholder returned planned as appointed investors, Samsung plans
 to return as much as $79 billion to shareholders this year.
 But investors were hoping for a bigger slice of Samsung's AI driven cash windfall and also
 more clarity on future share buybacks.
 Now SK Hi-Nex is also down 3.4% and the cost fee is down roughly 3% as well.
 Now in Tokyo, the Nikkei is choppy today, it's a closed down 3.4% of a percent.
 And AI linked names like Softbank and Fujikura are both under pressure, both down 5% and
 this is of course ahead of Nvidia's earning later this week with Nvidia reportedly telling
 major customers recently that AI server prices will rise as memory costs surge back
 to you.
 All right Elaine, you and Hong Kong with the latest on the Asian markets, thank you very
 much for that.
 Let's see how early trading and shaping up in Europe, Steve Sedgwick is in London with
 that side of the story, Steve.
 Don't want to bring this show you had so far, everything that your correspondence and
 you have mentioned are affecting the European equities today.
 So we are a bystander in many, many ways to all these major events, whether it be Kevin
 Wars at the end of the week, whether it be Nvidia Numbers on Wednesday, whether it be the
 stories about Alibaba and Softbank that Elaine was talking about, whether it be Dan
 talking about the Iran story and of course fascinating here, what the units had to say
 about that as well.
 So European equities are watching all of this and I'm waiting for the move on all of those
 big stories before really committing in one way or the other.
 We largely range bound to get off the week, the stock 600 trading watered around 650 points,
 investors looking at all those factors in videos, results in Jackson Hole later in a week,
 especially travel and leisure amongst the names, perhaps leading sector gains this morning,
 also miners catching a bit of the bid on the downside.
 We've got oil and gas names trading a little bit on the back foot as those crude prices
 come off their recent highs back to you, Don.
 All right Steve Sedgwick with the latest out of London, thank you very much for that.
 We've got a lot more to come here on morning call including the Fed heading west.
 The growing list of challenges Kevin Worschen and his company faces they prepare to convene
 at this year's Jackson Hole symposium plus much more on the fallout from the collapse
 in US and Canada trade talks.
 We talk to one former Trump economic advisor on whether the two allies can actually come
 back to the negotiating table to hammer out a possible deal.
 And later on we're going to find you the opportunities within the markets, the one sector
 that's been handing investors healthy gains, up nearly 10% so far this quarter.
 We've got a very busy hour still ahead when morning call returns after this commercial
 break.
 Football is back.
 Every game, every weekend, drafting sportsbook has you covered, every snap matters, every
 comeback and shift the game and every fourth quarter moment can change everything.
 Follow the action with draft kings, the number one sportsbook for live betting, built
 to keep up with the speed of sports, built with Canadian sports fans in mind.
 Veterans brings the action together in one easy to use app.
 Follow the biggest matchups, build your parlays and explore live betting markets as the
 game develops.
 So you can focus on the football and enjoy the action with confidence.
 Download the draft kings app today and see what everyone is talking about, draft kings.
 The number one sportsbook for live betting, in partnership with draft kings.
 The crown is yours.
 The new Red Bull Dragonberry and Tropic Berry energizers, now at McDonald's, made with
 free's dried fruit, and an electric burst of flavor.
 The all new Red Bull energizers, now at McDonald's.
 This product may not be right for you, high in caffeine, details of McDonald's.ca at participating
 at United Restaurants, excluding Quebec.
 All right, a very busy week ahead for investors, including the Fed holding its annual Jackson
 Hole Summit, the sit down and Wyoming coming amid that ongoing turbulence within the treasury
 market overall.
 As if that weren't enough, we also get NVIDIA's latest earnings on Wednesday after the
 bell and the latest test for the demand around that AI big tech trade.
 That stock, by the way, is flat since its last quarterly report.
 So NVIDIA shares right now in focus.
 For more, let's bring in SEMA Shaw, Chief Global Strategist over at Principal Asset Management.
 And SEMA, this is a scenario now where the market sit just below their record highs, awaiting
 a slew of different macro and micro economic catalysts.
 What exactly is going to be the thing that you're watching the most in a catalyst filled
 week?
 Good morning, Don.
 You're right.
 This is a very busy week.
 I think that both NVIDIA earnings and what we're likely to hear from Chair Warsha Jackson
 Hole are really key to how the market is going to be moving.
 We're going to be watching both.
 What I suspect is going to happen, though, is that Chair Warsha's unlikely to provide any
 kind of forward guidance, any inkling on what they're planning for the September meeting.
 So it may not actually end up being that market moving.
 So in fact, it really comes back to NVIDIA earnings and really understanding what the AI
 capital plans are to make sure that that's continuing.
 Because remember, NVIDIA is still going to be the foundations for a lot of this AI capital
 trade.
 So if we were to see any wobbles there, then unfortunately that could be bad news for the
 broader market.
 SEMA, how has the price action in many of these AI names?
 And NVIDIA is arguably the poster child of all of them.
 What exactly has the volatility or medium-term flatness in some of these moves signal to you
 about the veracity of the AI trade going forward?
 There's a number of different ways of thinking about this.
 From our perspective, this is the AI cycle which is maturing.
 So whereas lots of times it was a one-way trade and everything that had anything to do
 with tech ended up doing very, very well.
 This is the point where investors are saying that we know what the capital plans are at this
 stage, but we want to know that that's actually going to be monetized and there's going to
 be some kind of return on investment.
 And that's where you're seeing a bit of the discrepancy where you're seeing some winners
 and losers emerging from this broad AI build out.
 The other part of this as well is that you are seeing a more of a global story.
 Whereas once it was really centered on the US, that was a full focus, you're now seeing
 people talk about it more with regards, of course, software chip makers in Asia, the supplier
 of the infrastructure build out that the resources from Latin America and then they usage within
 Europe.
 So this is becoming more of a global story.
 It's very interesting, but it's no longer the one-way trade that it once was.
 So the global story also focuses right now on the interest rate side of things and the
 headlines are coming these days mostly out of the US treasury market.
 We heard Alibaba with a capital raise, the latest in a string of mega-cap tech companies
 around the world announcing capital plans, some of which involve equity raises and some
 of which involve debt.
 How much is that kind of debt story going to be altered with regard to AI given the rise
 and yields that we've seen and what exactly can we expect given all of that out of Jackson
 Hole or maybe nothing at all?
 Yeah, you know, I mean, what we've been seeing from a lot of these tech players is when
 they're thinking about what they will gain over the coming years, over the coming years
 decades even from a lot of the AI cafes build out, is that it's worth whatever the
 cost is from rising bond yields.
 The idea from our mind, they're a little bit macro, I should say bond agnostic, so the
 rising yields doesn't really stop them in their tracks at this stage.
 I think maybe there's a level which are threshold at which the arithmetic starts to change.
 So unfortunately from the US perspective, this is a bit of a competition for US Treasuries
 and that's been one of the drivers up for treasury yields in recent months.
 From Jackson Hole, it will be interesting to see if Chair Wash acknowledges what's been
 happening within the treasury market, the intervention that took place last week.
 But in fact, what we're expecting to hear from him is that the Fed is solely focused
 on the inflation fight that has to be where a lot of their operations are going to be
 focused and does that mean that there's going to be some kind of impact to their policy
 rate and impact to their balance sheet policy?
 I think there's a lot to be questioned at this point.
 We're just not sure if Chair Wash is going to be willing to provide any additional information
 given his reluctance to provide any kind of guidance to the market.
 And still early in the 10 years as well as Fed Chair.
 James Shaw, Principal, thank you very much.
 We'll talk to you soon.
 Thank you.
 All right, well straight ahead on the show, new concerns for Anthropic and a potential
 demand dilemma ahead of its highly anticipated IPO, but first, a check on shares of Deer.
 Members of the United Auto Workers Union rejecting an offer from the company to extend their
 contract by two years, setting the stage for potentially contentious talks next year.
 Deer had offered workers a 4% wage increase in bonuses if they accepted the contract
 by the end of August.
 UAW President Sean Fain says the offer fails to address outsourcing from union plants.
 Deer shares right now, off fractionally in the pre-market trade morning call is back
 after this.
 Football is back.
 Every game, every weekend, drafting sportsbook has you covered, every snap matters, every
 comeback and shift the game, and every fourth quarter moment can change everything.
 Follow the action with draft kings, the number one sportsbook for live betting, built
 to keep up with the speed of sports, built with Canadian sports fans in mind.
 Draft Kings brings the action together in one easy to use app.
 Follow the biggest matchups, build your parlays, and explore live betting markets as the game
 develops, so you can focus on the football and enjoy the action with confidence.
 Download the Draft Kings app today and see what everyone is talking about.
 Draft Kings, the number one sportsbook for live betting, in partnership with Draft Kings.
 The crown is yours.
 The gambling problem call connects Ontario, 1-866-531-2600-19 and over, physically present
 in Ontario.
 Eligibility and restrictions apply, cdraftkings.com slash sportsbook for details, please play
 responsibly.
 Number one sportsbook for live betting based on available live market data.
 The new Red Bull Dragonberry and Tropic Berry energizers, now at McDonald's, made with
 freeze-dried fruit, and an electric burst of flavor.
 The all new Red Bull energizers, now at McDonald's.
 This product may not be right for you, high in caffeine, details of McDonald's.ca and
 participating in Canadian restaurants excluding Quebec.
 Welcome back to morning call, checking some of this morning's latest headlines.
 President Trump reshuffled his investment portfolio this summer.
 The president's latest public financial disclosure report shows he made more than 1,000 transactions
 in June by nearly $50 million in securities and selling roughly $28 million.
 He sold names like meta-platforms and Motorola but also snapped up Berkshire Hathaway, Visa
 and MasterCard.
 While the filing gives a window into President Trump's investment moves, it is not a clear
 picture of the total holdings in his portfolio.
 Anthropics top AI model is reportedly struggling to attract customers as it competes against
 cheaper alternatives.
 The financial time says spending on Fable 5 has topped out at roughly 11% of the total
 spent on all of Anthropics tools, more than two months after its launch.
 The change was primarily due to Fable's high price and that older models are capable
 of handling a bulk of those businesses needs.
 In videos and talks to invest in perplexity as part of a funding round that would value
 the AI startup at more than $30 billion, the information reports the new round would
 hike perplexity's valuation by more than 50% from the previous financing round roughly
 a year ago.
 And California's Attorney General has reportedly canceled a meeting today with Paramount
 Skydance over the state's lawsuit seeking a block to take over of Warner Brothers
 Discovery.
 The New York Times citing a statement from the Attorney General's office says the
 accused Paramount of leaking details of a meeting held on Friday and then acting in
 bad faith as well.
 He had been expected to ask Paramount to pledge to keep its movie studio from moving
 separate from Warner Brothers Discovery.
 We'll still on deck for this show, the US and Canada kicking off a new week in a trade
 war.
 We're live in Washington, D.C. with the latest and whether the two sides will be able
 to get back to the bargaining table at all.
 Morning Call continues next.
 I'm Dominic Chouin from Morgan Brennan.
 Welcome back to Morning Call, checking US equity futures right now after the S&P 500 NASDAQ
 snapped three week winning streaks last week.
 Right now we're relatively stable, just modestly lower, the Dow's implied lower by just
 eight points, the S&P down by 18.
 But the tech heavier NASDAQ trade off by about 157 points.
 Taking a look at treasuries with the Fed kicking off its Jackson Hole symposium later
 on this week, the 10 year no yield right at 4.71 percent, the two year no yield, 4.22 percent
 and the 30 year long bond five and a quarter percent there.
 Checking crypto prices with Bitcoin working toward push towards that 80,000 mark, we are
 currently off by just about, well, now we're flat, 77,428 Ethereum prices, $2,461 in change.
 As we await those new economic sanctions on Iran by the US, benchmark US prices are
 down by 2 percent, $85.35 for WTI crude, ice-print crude futures, the world gauge, $93.11
 off by roughly 1.5 percent.
 Checking global markets, a mostly lower session in Asia, South Korea's cost be down over
 3 percent, taking a look at the trade in Europe right now.
 You can see the FTSE 100, just about flat on the session, same thing with the German
 DAX and same thing with the CAC in France.
 Now to our top story and the collapse and trade talks between the US and Canada, the US
 imposing 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian products on Saturday after the talks fell
 apart late Friday.
 Megan Kasella joins us now from Washington with the latest on those talks, Megan.
 Dom, good morning.
 It's a tip for Tat-Tariff.
 We're now underway between the US and one of its largest trading partners and that's
 Canada.
 Negotiations between the US and Canada collapsed late on Friday night after what had been
 a week of intense negotiations.
 So now those steep 50 percent tariffs are in effect on items ranging from wine and furniture
 to cement and dairy products.
 It's about $20 billion worth of goods hit or about 5 percent of everything that the US
 buys from Canada each year.
 Now this came after President Trump earlier last week, you'll remember, delayed the tariffs
 by three days, saying there was a deal in hand that just had to be finalized, but that
 all fell apart at the 11th hour.
 Now what brought us here, there were disagreements over auto tariffs with the US saying that Canada
 was demanding that tariff relief that the US was willing to offer on cars would have to
 be extended to small trucks as well.
 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney also said that the US lead demands aiming to limit
 Canada's ability to strike trade deals with other countries.
 That's something that he called unacceptable.
 So now down the two sides appear to be somewhat stuck.
 Canada has vowed to retaliate dollar for dollar on US exports with tariffs set to take
 effect two weeks from now.
 And US officials are already suggesting that they might respond to that with even further
 retaliation.
 Now, US trade representative James and Greer also says no further talks are planned as
 of now.
 So at this point it's hard to see anything resolving anytime soon.
 Thumb.
 Meghan, both sides have said that each side is kind of requesting demanding too much.
 So what exactly would then be the impetus for those talks to kick off again?
 What needs to be done to bring both sides back to the negotiating table?
 It's really hard when you're in a situation like this.
 You're absolutely right.
 Prime Minister Mark Carney said ultimately the US was asking for too much and offering too
 little.
 There's also been some reporting that, well, yes, those key issues I just ran through
 were top of mind for both sides and really led to the breakdown.
 It was a number of small things across the board that when they tried to put pen to
 paper to frame out the agreement that they'd already agreed in principle that everything
 was just too much for Canada to agree to.
 So in that sense, it's not clear that dropping any one demand or two demands would get them
 back to the table.
 Bloomberg is reporting this morning that Canada is preparing for no talks to even get off
 the ground until after the midterm.
 So clearly, we could be in this for the long haul.
 All right.
 Meghan Kasella with the latest air on the US-Canada trade talks.
 Thank you very much for that.
 Let's talk more about that breakdown in talks between the US and Canada and whether there's
 a potential off-ramp for either side or on-ramp back towards negotiations.
 Kellyanne Shaw is a partner in international trade policy expert at the Aiken law firm.
 She's also former deputy assistant to the president for international economic affairs
 during the first Trump administration, working as a key negotiator on trade agreements
 with China and other parties as well.
 Kellyanne, thank you very much for joining us here.
 You heard Meghan's report just how dire is the situation.
 Both sides don't appear to want to even engage in talks right now.
 How much of an issue is it going to be ahead of our midterm elections with all the economic
 uncertainty given this Canada-US relationship that seems to be now freezing even more?
 Good morning.
 Well, I don't think it's hopeless, but I'm not hopeful for a resolution any time soon.
 And what I mean by that is I think the driving force of this collapse was really Canada's
 domestic politics.
 Now, you have over the weekend both sides pointing fingers saying it's the other sides
 fall, but ultimately it was Carnegie who made the decision to walk away from this deal
 at the 11th hour and took a victory lap over the weekend with his grand speech about why things
 fell apart into a lot of frustration and bitter feelings on the US side that they had a deal
 and at the last moment the prime minister decided to pull the plug.
 So I don't really see an off-ramp any time soon.
 I think Canada is going to continue to be out in the wilderness from a US negotiating perspective
 for a little bit now.
 From your perspective, given what we know, at least what we kind of know now,
 who has the relative leverage in this kind of a scenario?
 We know that both sides rely on each other.
 We are geographic partners, allies in many ways.
 But what exactly is the, I guess maybe I'm trying to figure out how do the US and Canada
 each view their negotiating position and what exactly does them bring them back to the table?
 Yeah, I think it's a great question.
 And clearly the United States and Canada have no choice but to make this relationship
 or across a whole host of issues from economic to trade to national security.
 There will be a relationship that will continue between both countries
 just because the trading relationship is broken for the moment.
 And that said, most of US Canada trade is completely unaffected by these tariffs
 and Canada's retaliatory tariffs.
 So the show will go on, so to speak.
 Now, what would bring both sides back to the negotiating table for a deal?
 It's a little bit hard to see from where I'm sitting because what the US was effectively offering
 Canada is the most generous tariff cuts that they had offered to any trading partner so far
 in exchange for Canada removing its retaliation
 and complying with what it already agreed as part of the US MCA agreement on dairy.
 The US is not going to sweeten that deal.
 I don't think they have an incentive to and I don't think they can politically because frankly,
 they were at risk of getting criticized for giving Canada too much.
 So really, this will depend on the politics in Canada.
 When does Karni think it's in his political advantage to strike a deal with the United States?
 When is the economic pain of some of these tariffs too much to bear?
 So I think ultimately this is going to play out over a series of months
 and we'll have to unfortunately see some of this retaliation impact the Canadian economy.
 I think before the Prime Minister comes back to the table.
 And Kellyanne, one quick one before we let you go, we mentioned some of the products,
 cement dairy products, furniture, some consumer staples goods.
 Is there a threat that we could see an expanded kind of tariff policy go in place between both countries?
 If these particular items are not at least agreed upon to?
 Yeah, I think that that is worst case scenario.
 That we have this tit for tat escalation that just continues to tick up.
 Now, the fundamental complaint of the United States and why they hadn't been engaging with Canada
 from a trade perspective was because a year ago, Canada retaliated for the administration's
 initial tariffs. The US waited a year before imposing these countermeasures.
 So in response to Canada's dollar for dollar tariffs, we could see the administration act
 immediately. We could also see them wait a little bit longer to see if the situation changes
 before that escalatory phase. I think right now everyone's just evaluating what happened.
 Again, a lot of shock and frustration on the US side as to why Canada did this at the last moment.
 So I think we'll have to see what the administration ultimately decides to do.
 All right, Kellyanne, shot it, aching great to get your thoughts.
 Thank you very much. We'll see you soon.
 Thanks.
 All right, a lot more to come here on morning call. We reveal this morning's mystery chart,
 by the way, and the one sector giving investors some quote-unquote healthy returns.
 That's a big hint. This is quarter, up nearly 10% so far. That's your mystery chart.
 As we had to break those thousands back in the streets of Washington for the Freedom 250 Grand
 Prix, IndyCar drivers racing through the nation's capital, passing by the Mall of America,
 the capital, this Smithsonian as part of the final event to celebrate America's 250th birthday.
 Morning call is back after this.
 More vulnerable to a potential pullback.
 Those stocks include Agilent Tech, which is up 7% just last week alone.
 Khanico Phillips, up 5.7% APA Corp, up over 4%, Merck, which jumped 12% and Nordsson,
 up over 7% as well. Now, you can read more about the most overbought stocks by going over to
 cmbc.com slash pro where subscribers get all the access to detail around those big screeners
 that run each day. Now, with all that talk about tech and AI dominating the market discussion
 these days, healthcare has quietly snuck under the radar. It is the second best performing sector
 in the S&P 500, this quarter, up about 10% trailing only the energy sector.
 Now, within that, biotech is powering much of those gains thanks to strong earnings and a round
 of M&A activity. The eye shares biotech ETF or IBB is up almost 13% so far this quarter.
 Let's talk more about what's driving these gains with Emily Field, head of US Biopharma
 Research over at Barclays. Emily, the story around healthcare is one that has been brewing arguably
 for quite a long time now, years in fact. One exactly has now kind of keyed investors on this
 as a mean reversion trade that wasn't there before for the past three to five years.
 Yeah, I think it's a number of factors. I think, you know, for a while, we had the GLP one story,
 though it felt that that was very company specific. And then at the beginning of the Trump
 administration, there were so many questions about broader policy, drug pricing and so it felt like
 it put M&A, which really is the lifeblood of the biotech industry kind of on pause for a while.
 So we get to 2026 and it feels like the capital markets are open for a lot of biotech companies.
 We're starting to see more M&A from the large farm of buyers. And then also some real innovation,
 I think has really got markets excited. We had revolution medicines, pancreatic cancer data
 earlier this year. And then just last week, we saw the phase three data for the cancer vaccine
 from Moderna and Merck. Those particular moves, they're headline driven for sure. But do you feel
 as though the current environment has kicked off even more interest in M&A? In other words, maybe
 can biotech investors right now investing in small and medium-sized companies in that industry
 feel as though there is more of that tailwind to be active in those markets because
 there is a higher potential for acquisition activity given pipelines need to be replenished
 by large cap pharma. Absolutely. And the large cap pharma companies have basically even after
 having done deals, for example, Avv after the announcement of the Apigee deal earlier this summer
 was very vocal that they're still committed to doing more business development. Merck,
 even with the pipelines that they've had on their own, has done a number of sizeable deals,
 has indicated that they're still going to be very active. So I think that these large pharma
 companies are just going to be continuing to look at biotech to supplement their portfolios.
 Emily, the Moderna news, as you alluded to, was massive. I mean, the stock price move alone was
 something for a size company of that, was something to behold. What exactly then is going to be in
 your mind the hottest part of that market? Is it going to be cancer vaccines? Are we going to focus
 more on those than GLP ones in the past? How exactly do those companies then figure? And what exactly
 are the top picks in those particular parts of the market? Oh, that's a great question. I think
 that what was so I guess unexpected about last week was we knew that per chance we could get a
 read out on this trial, but we didn't know when. So the timing of this really surprised everybody
 will probably see the full data set at a cancer conference later this fall. But I think that this
 sort of unlocks the box of where could these vaccines go next. And there are trials ongoing
 and other tumor types. So the GLP one story we think is still going to be something very important
 to this industry. But cancer is still a very, very big unmet medical need and there's been some
 great innovation this year. So I think that that's something people are really going to be paying
 attention to in the coming months. All right. Emily Field over at Barclays. Thank you very
 much. Come back and see us again soon. Thank you. All right. It's right ahead on the show here.
 The morning call crew assembles teeing up the trading day ahead with trade wars. The fed
 in BDS setting up a massive week of catalysts for investors. We're back after this break.
 All right. Welcome back. It's time now for your call sheet where we look at the topics
 driving the trading day ahead. The crew members today are Stephanie Gild of Robin Hood,
 Nimrit Kang of North Star asset management and Terry Wiswiseman of the McCory group as well.
 Thank you all being here for being part of this panel. We're going to start with our first topic
 which has to be maybe these days the geopolitical situation that's developing and maybe we'll start
 first of all Stephanie with you, given US Canada, given US Iran, given the fed coming up here.
 What exactly is going to be the market's key focus this week?
 It's hard to pick one. There's a lot of things going on. Interest rates obviously matter
 especially now because the growth that we're seeing in this country has been dominated by AI
 and that started being funded by not just equity and cash flow but also from debt and so that
 interest rates obviously matter a lot. I think in video earnings they're expected to be
 also 100% growth, quarter over quarter, 88% growth this year. I think that's going to be meaningful
 because what they've started to become a bank and that's why I think that they kind of matter
 also in that mix. I guess if I had to pick one of those, I would probably say what happens
 with interest rates because of the underlying debt that's being built up. All right speaking
 of Nimrit if we talk about the kind of geopolitical situation that has developed here,
 the US and Iran or US and Canada which figures more in your mind from that standpoint.
 I think the markets are used to looking through all this geopolitical noise. We have been in a war
 for a while now and we have been dealing with the back and forth on tariffs on
 on again, off again. So I think the markets are really not going to respond to that very much.
 They're going to focus on the resiliency of corporate earnings, Q2 earnings coming in 24% for
 non-AI companies. That's broadening of earnings growth. That's what the markets are really
 focused on. All right so that's big by the way, I just want to point out that with regard to the US
 and Canada and the trade talks, we do have Ambassador James and Greer, the US trade representative
 coming up later on on Squawk Box in the 8 a.m. Eastern time hour. So a must watch interview there,
 giving everything that's happening between the US and Canada right now actually. Okay let's move
 on to our next topic which is Jackson Hole and the supposed to be happening this week.
 Terry, we have Kevin Worsh's first as Fed share in his remarks at Jackson Hole. There aren't
 many people expecting that much out of it, but it could be a potentially market moving event.
 What exactly is Kevin Worsh going to do in your mind, in your opinion, this week at Jackson Hole?
 Well, Tommy know what he's not going to do. You know, on July 30 and during his presser,
 host FOMC, he said he was not going to talk about the short-term policy outlook and that
 probably means he's not going to dwell on the recent data in the US economy as well. But that,
 you know, that begs the question, what is he going to talk about if not those things and I think
 what he's going to talk about is the long-term, right? It's the things that he has already focused on.
 When Kevin Worsh talks about the AI revolution and the productivity gains that might come from it
 and the maybe the disinflation that might come from it, that's really about the long-term.
 If you ask me what I think he's going to say about the long-term, I think he's going to balance
 that positive view with maybe a bit more of a skeptics view highlighting the other things that
 are out there in the narratives that could hurt productivity or cause inflation. Those could be
 the globalization. It could be global conflict. It could be climate change. It could be adverse
 demographics. There's a whole host of things that would counter the very positive productivity
 story around AI. All right, let's talk towards two CIOs on the panel right now about what their
 thoughts are given Jackson Hole. Stephanie, to you, with regard to the markets and how they will
 perceive these comments from Worsh when they do come around, how important it will it be for the
 markets at just maybe a hair below record highs at this point? The fact that he's not guiding as
 much as the market has been used to for a decade plus I think is just creating more uncertainty
 and thus more volatility and interest rates and so any clarity that I think he can provide
 in Jackson Hole can be helpful to the markets either way. But if you think back over history,
 this has probably become a most important one in a while, maybe besides when they said they
 decided to raise rates pretty 2022. So I think that's where I'm afraid it might be a little
 bit bearish because we're also in the doldrums of summer like, you know, and we are at record highs
 again. And underneath, as I said, all of this is a lot of debt building up and I think we're seeing
 kind of rolling de-leveraging. So, you know, unless he says that he's going to start cutting rates
 for whatever reason, which I can't see that possibility, I'm not sure it's going to be very positive
 for the markets overall. All right, now because Stephanie mentioned it, I want to turn to our last
 topic, which is NVIDIA, a potentially big catalyst as well. Nimrit, how important are NVIDIA results
 to the markets resilience right now? Well, NVIDIA results have established a pattern, which is
 by the rumor, sell the results. NVIDIA stock has been doing well heading into these results. We're
 expecting blockbuster results up to out of NVIDIA and excellent guidance out of that, but I don't
 think that's going to do much for the stock or the market. The market is kind of in this phase where
 yes, NVIDIA is growing their earnings 97% year over year, amazing, amazing kind of breadth that
 we're seeing, but how sustainable is it? That's really the question, Dom, and nobody really knows.
 So, I think the market's just in this weight and sea. There's a bit of AFT going on and there's
 more attention to the other sectors outside of AI. All right, that does it for us this morning.
 Thank you very much, Stephanie Nimrit and Terry as well for that. We appreciate the comments there.
 Let's take a look at the futures right now as we head towards the six o'clock eastern time hour.
 Right now, the Dow is implied lower by just about 12 points, the S&P off by 17, the NASDAQ off by 146
 for that AI trade. Everyone's positioning ahead of NVIDIA results.
 It may not be right for you, high in caffeine, details of McDonald's.ca and participating in
 Canadian restaurants excluding Quebec.