Markets, rates and Nvidia test investor confidence 8/25/26

 It's NFL kickoff time exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Mike
 Los Aeneas NFL is by far the most profitable league NFL team valuations now on
 CNBC dot com slash sport. I'm Dominic Chiu and this is your morning call.
 Good morning everyone. I'm Dominic Chiu and for Morgan Brent in this morning
 US equity futures are at least moving in the green right now at the
 Dow coming off back-to-back winning sessions. At the moment the Dow is implied
 higher by roughly 130 points. Yes and P by about 19 in the tech heavier
 NAS tech trade north of 200 at this point. We're watching treasuries as
 well as the debate over Secretary Besson's intervention rages on. We are
 seeing though US treasury prices bid. We're seeing higher prices lower yields
 right now the 10 year no yield 4.69% the two year no yield 4.23% and the 30
 year long bond 5.22%. Ahead why Stanley Drug and Miller calls it 10th
 amount to quantitative easing. Now amid the moves in the bond market the
 dollars also seeing some moves as well here. At the dollar index currently
 standing at just about 99 were down though about two thirds of 1% over the
 course of the past week or so. Debatesman trade monitor with Bitcoin hitting its
 highest level in three months as well. Keeping an eye on some of those prices
 you can see at least with Bitcoin right now one in the third percent gain
 there. 79,000 859. We did crack that 80,000 mark earlier on. You can see
 Ethereum prices 2,482 dollars per token there as well. Metals also
 surging with gold at three months highs. You can see here gold comics gold
 now pulling back by just about one third of 1% 4,683 dollars per ounce
 silver $67.74 off about 1% there. And then on energy prices still in focus
 given the conflict in the Middle East. US benchmark West Texas intermediate
 down about 2.25% to 83 dollars and 2 cents. Ice Brent crude features the
 world gauge $90.16 off by a similar percentage amount. Sticking that with the
 Middle East and the White House unveiling an anti-Iran global sanctions
 plan it calls operation economic outcast as it looks to open a new front in its
 war against Iran. We are launching an economic onslaught against Iran's
 financial connections around the globe around the globe. Our objective is to
 sever every economic pipeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until
 tyrannes stands alone. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson adding that his
 quote economic d-day is a final warning to countries including China to
 sever their business relationships with Iran or risk being cut off from the
 dollar-based financial system. Well, we've got a global reaction now with our
 Dan Murphy and Abu Dhabi and Yunus Yun in Beijing. Dan, we're going to begin
 with you. Tom Good morning. Well, here in the Gulf and Arab capitals operation
 economic outcast is now in play. The Trump administration stepping up its
 campaign to cut Iran off from the global economy here threatening
 secondary sanctions against countries, banks and companies that continue
 doing business with Tehran. The opening salvo basically targets
 everything from Iranian oil sales to digital asset networks, but the
 announcement was also light on some details and stop sort of naming and
 shaming countries in the crosshairs. The Treasury Secretary basically saying
 you know who you are and you can expect a call from Trump on the timeline.
 Now China, the UAE Turkey, Iraq and India are among the top trading partners
 of Iran and new CNBC reporting says this effort, if implemented, could
 significantly sever Tehran's economic lifelines after nearly six months of
 war. Yunus is going to speak about China in a moment but here in the UAE
 Dr. Amwa Gargash diplomatic advisor to the UAE president posted on X just a
 short time ago, saying the escalating economic pressure announced overnight
 shows Iran's attacks on the Gulf states have backfired, deepened its isolation
 and weakened its position. As for Iran, its top voice voices are also doing
 their best to dismiss this campaign. The parliamentary speaker Muhammad
 Ghalibov said no one believes the American bloster and also claims that Iran's
 trading partners had said they would ignore the warnings.
 And Iran's economy minister also saying Tehran is prepared and
 warning that its response may not be purely defensive.
 So, Dom China is really the central test here. It buys about 90% of Iran's oil
 exports, historically providing Tehran with billions of dollars in annual revenue.
 The administration saying the pressure here could create conditions for
 regime collapse inside Iran, but after more than six months of war,
 the key question now is whether Washington is going to risk its wider economic
 relationship with China to enforce the threat and whether this greater economic pain
 will actually change Tehran's position. It's back over to you.
 All right, Dan Murphy, live in Abu Dhabi with the latest reaction from the Middle
 East. Now to the reaction as Dan pointed out from China and our
 UNICE UNE with that side of the story in Beijing, UNICE.
 Thanks, Dom. Well, perhaps not surprisingly, the Chinese foreign ministry was very critical
 of the U.S. steps, saying that the American sanctions undermine the rights
 of other countries and that the pressing priority of the Iran conflict should be
 de-escalation and holding talks. The state media has also been very focused on
 President Xi, who has been hosting the King of Jordan, saying that there should be a need
 for dialogue to resolve this U.S. Iran war. Now, this is the message that we've been hearing
 out of the leadership for the past several days, really trying to paint China as the responsible
 statesmen, and even as China has been accused, including by the U.S. of being destabilizing
 and a lot of global hotspots, including Iran. A Bescent had sanctioned 60 entities, including
 China as well as Hong Kong-listed ones. These companies and people are generally in a network
 of middlemen in trading finance as well as shipping, moving goods that include sensitive technologies
 with a little known exposure to the U.S. But in some respects, China has kind of gotten off easy
 because none of the big banks or the major refiners were included on this list. It's unclear,
 though, whether or not the U.S. is going to get tougher on China, even as China, as Dan had pointed
 out, is a very important partner economically with Tehran, or if China would engage in Bescent's,
 what he described as quiet diplomacy, because what we also learned today from the foreign ministry
 is that they would not disclose whether China had heard from the U.S. on a timeline of enforcement,
 they didn't say anything about the Chinese banks. And in fact, the state media, as well as the
 Chinese foreign ministry, avoided completely any discussion that any Chinese or Hong Kong-listed
 companies were included among those 60 entities, Dom. UNICE, another question, though,
 given the fact that there being somewhat radio silent on those topics, has there been any
 chatter from the state-length media or official channels with regard to some context or color around
 whether or not this changes the dynamic for President Trump and President Xi possibly meeting
 in just maybe a month or so's time? So far, there has been radio silence in the official media
 on that front, but in terms of just discussions in China circles, that's exactly the question
 that people are wondering about. They're wondering, will the U.S. really have the stomach
 to get tough on China if they really wanted to isolate Iran because they have just in a couple
 of weeks President Trump apparently, or expected to host, I should say, President Xi Jinping on September
 24th. All right, Yudinus, you live in Beijing with the latest there on the Middle East and China.
 Thank you very much for that. Let's bring in now Chris Campbell, founder and CEO in camera solutions,
 also a former Assistant Treasury Secretary during the first Trump administration, somebody who's
 got a little insight perhaps into what's going on with these sanctions and everything else. Let's
 Chris, first of all, welcome and thank you for being here with us. You heard the reports from both,
 yeah, you've heard the reports from both Dan and Yunus kind of outlining some of the contextual
 points of view from the Middle East side and from the Chinese side. These sanctions, we don't have
 a whole lot of details on them, but can you tell us from your experience, are they that much worse
 than what Iran has already gone through for the past several years, and what exactly can we expect
 to see happen if Secretary Besson's plan comes to fruition? Yeah, yeah, I think it's good to see.
 Again, thanks for inviting me back. I think that it's going to be a question and the challenge is
 that the US approach to sanctions has always been, on Iran has been very, very difficult, but now we're
 in a place where they've significantly tripled or quadrupled down on those sanctions. Let's
 see in set a second Iran, as you know, is a 90% inflation rate going into these sanctions
 and on the kinetic action we've been taking with them. But these sanctions are different than the
 sanctions in the past because these are more, these are more systemic sanctions.
 It's sanctions against governments, sanctions against whole sectors of economy is noted in the
 lead end, you know, crypto, crypto, technologies, gold, aviation, shipping, and then by treasury
 putting those categories together, it allows the Treasury Department to impose sanctions at a much,
 much, much, much more rapid rates and not go, not go individual by individual or company by
 company, but sector by sector. And that will be a significant punishing bread and brutal to
 their own in economy. And of course, classic Trump style at these sanctions have a strategic
 ambiguity as to how they will be enforced. And so I think it's, you know, it'll be on the time
 and manner that which the Secretary of Besson and the president did decide. And I'm sure that
 they'll use that to maximum leverage to be able to maximize their ability to be able to
 negotiate a solution within the Iranian conflict. And then these, the important, the important
 notable of course, these sanctions are different than sanctions in the past, of course, because you
 already have kinetic action in Iran. And so these are being imposed upon Iran and their allies
 in addition to, you know, kinetic action that's happening in the space. And then there's also a
 smaller humanitarian car about in these, in these sanctions that we've seen in sanctions in the past,
 which will, I think, put a significant amount of pressure in Iran. I think the outcomes
 like they're going to be that, you know, I think we'll probably see a moderate economic
 channel, economic impact immediately in Iran, but a significant punishing political impact in Iran
 as they further isolate around the world. And you know, the president has an elite that
 suggests the president is calling foreign leaders and putting extreme pressure on them to be
 able to live up to the sanctions. And, you know, let's, let's see how, you know, what the,
 how those foreign leaders and foreign governments respond. But it's certainly, it's certainly
 suggested that the secretary and the president are not, they're very, very serious about the
 position of these sanctions and the carrying out. Okay. So that's the Middle East side. Let's do
 it like we did with, with our reporters. Eunice had the Chinese side as well. How does this affect
 the dynamic for the upcoming anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping?
 Yeah. So like, I think that that meeting is, is TBD, depending on how, how China acts and how we
 react to what China, what China does. Again, a scene set here. China has, you know, as you know,
 China accounts for at 90% of crude exports out of Iran.
 significant economic relationship and very important to the Chinese economy.
 But the, you know, I think that going into these sanctions, China has, has a signal, you know,
 some formal opposition to the sanctions. I think we'll likely see some informal opposition to it as
 well. And as you know, suggested that, you know, for the first time ever, we, we have actually have
 that the real possibility of secondary sanctions being opposed on China. And, you know, buried within
 the, with Secretary Besson's comments, was a threat to perhaps a Chinese financial institution.
 That would be an unprecedented step from the United States government. Should we impose sanctions
 on a, on a financial institution within China? I believe that, you know, obviously we would have
 some significant destabilizing effects within the relationship. And likely it would have a different
 outcome. Should that meaning occur between President Xi and President Trump later this year?
 All right. The world still runs on dollars. So we'll see how those sanctions play out.
 Chris Campbell, thank you very much for the insights. We'll see you soon, sir.
 Thanks. All right. Let's see how markets in Europe and Asia are shaping up and reacting to some
 of these developments. Elaine, you was standing by in Hong Kong with the latest there. Ben Boulos
 has been tracking the early action in Europe out of London. Ben will begin with you.
 Yes, good morning to European equities. Ticking higher this Tuesday morning, the pan-European
 stopped 600 up around about four tenths of 1%. But much of the attention firmly on the events
 later this week and video earnings expected to be a major test for markets, especially the AI
 trade when we get those figures on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as you were
 in discussing, said to give a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole gathering on Friday. This is the
 picture across the Key Benchmarks, equity benchmarks in Europe. All of them trading in the green
 this morning. Yesterday it was only the FTSE 100 in London that closed above the flatline. The
 other three were all closing Monday in negative territory, but recouping some of those losses.
 In terms of sectors, travel and leisure stocks are ticking higher this morning,
 building on the gains that we saw yesterday. The outperformer yesterday,
 also on the board of outperformers this morning, up almost 1%. Oil and gas shares also have been
 climbing after US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson threatened severe sanctions on anyone doing
 business with Iran. The oil and gas basket increasing value despite a sharp fall in the oil price.
 Brent Crude, when I last checked a few moments ago, down around two and a half percent,
 dip in it below the $90 barrel mark. Meanwhile, shares of European car makers are continuing
 to lead the losses in today's trade, and those are the other sectors that are giving up crowns
 today as well. Done. All right, Ben Boulos with the action out of London. Thank you very much for
 that. Now to the action in Asia, or Elaine, you have that story, Elaine.
 Good morning, Dom. So investors are certainly watching uncertainties in the Middle East,
 and also the Jackson Hole speech later this week. But it's a mixed picture in Asia,
 Taiwan, Korea, and Japan stocks all recovered from a US chip sell-off, and gain does investors
 wait for Nvidia's earnings for clues on where the AI trade is headed, the tie-ax, the Cosby,
 and the Nikkei all closed less than a percent higher. But the bigger moves were really in China,
 China's EV maker X-Pung plunge, 9 percent in Hong Kong today, after the company issued a weaker
 than expected forecast on its third quarter deliveries. A city said that this guidance fell short
 of investor expectations, especially as the company faces what's likely to be supply chain
 disruptions and constraints. And this is despite X-Pung's robotics business securing evaluation
 of $6.3 billion in a funding round. Now, staying on robotics and physical AI, China's
 best-known humanoid robot maker, UniTree, has been all the rage earlier this month, right? But it
 has slumped 45 percent from a peak at one point during its debut. It's been down 36 percent
 in the last week, but it's still up 300 percent from the issue price. Now, it had a massive first-day
 pop that was driven by retail hype, and there are now bubble concerns back to you.
 All right, Lane, you with the action out of Asia. Thank you very much for that. We've got a lot
 more to come here on morning call, including the $280 billion market wildcard facing investors
 when Nvidia reports later on this week. Plus, what Kevin Warch has to say at his first Jackson
 Wholesom Hoseyam as Fed Chairman. And then later on in the show, the AI data center pushback
 as more governors join a growing chorus of states saying, not in my backyard.
 Very busy hour still ahead when morning call returns after this commercial break.
 It's NFL kickoff time. Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert,
 Michael O'Zania. NFL is by far the most popularly NFL team valuations. Now on cnbc.com slash sport.
 All right, welcome back. Investors continue to digest the latest round of sanctions on Iran and
 Canadian tariffs as well. The developments adding to an already busy week for the markets with
 PCE inflation data in video earnings and the kickoff to the Jackson whole economic symposium still
 to come. For more, let's bring in Ben Emmons, the founder of Fed Watch Advisors, the guy who's
 seen a lot of catalysts in his days. So let's talk about the plethora of macro that's on the calendar
 these days. We'll start maybe dovetailing off the conversation that we just had with Chris Campbell
 about Iran and China and everything else. Sanctions wise, there isn't effect on the overall
 scheme of the market, the feeling in the market right now, but it doesn't seem to be the primary
 catalyst at least for the time being. And that is Scott Besson's perhaps use in the future
 of the Treasury's general account to buy bonds. What exactly does this interventionist
 Treasury have to do with the future stability of the interest rate market?
 Well, they could affect it. No question. You know, if you're going to deploy this whole balance
 that is the checking account of the Treasury at the Fed, there is nine on a 35 billion. So if you
 were to actually buy with that amount, all these long-term bonds, even though you have to fund it
 with other debt, but that's a lot of money, right? So that could affect the interest rates,
 whether they actually will do that as to be seen. You see Dracamella coming out with some criticism
 this morning. There's other people are skeptical and I do think that they pay attention to it like
 you can only affect interest rates so much, right? Ultimately, it's the market since the economy
 drives interest rates in one direction or the other and the market's so large in Treasury's,
 22 trillion, it's like a currency market, right? So it's not that simple, but I do think that the
 Treasury will at least go forward with these bigger buybacks and then we'll have to see what
 happens at the intervention. There are a lot of folks who are trying to kind of game out scenario
 analyze what could happen at certain levels of bond buying, the types of assets that are being
 targeted. This is in essence kind of what the Fed does to control monetary policy and money supply,
 but the Treasury at the executive branch is trying to do it now. How exactly then could they
 either work with each other, either by coordinated efforts or non because they're not their
 separate entities, but how exactly could they then maybe run into loggerheads with each other as
 well, given policy on the monetary side and the fiscal side? Well, if you think of coordination,
 what that would happen is that the Fed would absorb all the T-bills that the Treasury would be
 issuing to buy the bonds, but if they get to loggerheads, then it's exactly that part. It's like,
 as we know how Kevin Wars feels about the balance sheet for fiscal policy, he's not necessarily
 going to agree with that approach. So it's going to be the Treasury that's going to likely be on
 its own having to issue a lot of T-bills to try and buy more long to bond and hopefully
 reach go lower. This is why I think a lot of people are skeptical that the effect, how the Treasury
 affects the Treasury yields is less than it would be as the Fed did, like say in 2011 when they did
 that type of operation. What do you make of the market's current reaction to some of the bond buying
 and intervention programs that have been talked about by the Treasury Secretary and that have
 already actually happened, right? For some of the currency side of things and everything else,
 the market reaction has been fierce and swift for a very brief moment and things have generally
 gone back to kind of where they were. How much does potentially using a near $1 trillion Treasury
 slush fund to kind of juice that particular trade help matters or hurt matters? Is it really the
 bazooka that Hank Paulson had during the financial crisis? There's actually a different bazooka
 if you think about how many Treasury are standing in the low end of the curve that's $6.5 trillion.
 If you actually were to do that by $6.5 trillion and say an issue with debt on the other side,
 that would be the biggest bazooka because you take all this debt out. That's very different with
 the Fed does. Fed buys bonds, but keeps on the balance sheet and still in the system. The Treasury
 when it buys debt, it retires the debt, it just issues new debt. But to your point like intervention,
 typically what happens is you get a sharp reaction and then you drift back to the level where the
 intervention happened. Does that happen with the yen? Does that happen with the 30-year? I think the
 markets try to test the line and say, is this line on the 30-year or on the yen? I'm sure that they
 will try to control those lines, but the market is too big. I don't think they're going to manage it.
 The old saying is, don't fight the Fed. We'll see if they fight the Treasury.
 Yeah, we'll fight the market. There you go. Thank you very much. Ben Emman's, we appreciate that.
 All right, straight ahead of the show here, the IPO pipeline heats up amid new reports.
 A major wearable tech giant is readying its public market debut. But first,
 checking the Vanneck Vectors Steel ETF or SLX, which rose for a second straight session yesterday
 on the back of the collapse of the U.S. Canada trade talks this past weekend. Taking a look at some
 of the biggest gainers in the ETF Steel Dynamics, Newcore, Cleveland Cliffs, you can see there are moving
 generally higher in the pre-market trade. Keep it on the steel. Morning call is back after
 them. It's NFL kickoff time. Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert,
 Michael O'Zania. NFL is by far the most profitable league. NFL team valuations. Now on CNBC.com,
 slash sport.
 Welcome back to Morning Call, checking some of this morning's latest headlines.
 billionaire investor and Scott Bessent Mentor, Stanley Druckenmiller, is calling into question
 the Treasury's recent actions in the bond market. Writing in a Wall Street Journal editorial,
 governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose. Multiple reports, smart ring maker,
 Aura is considering a US IPO as soon as September as well, having already filed paperwork to raise
 as much as $3 billion at a more than $16 billion valuation. Also weighing possible US offerings
 according to reports, data center operator Switch, SoftBank the SB Energy, Neo Cloud Company
 in scale, and Duncan Parent Inspire Brands as well. Alabama's Attorney General is opening an
 investigation into open AI after its models hacked hugging face last month. The probe looks at
 to see whether open AI violated the state's consumer protection laws or poses an ongoing risk
 to its citizens. And the Trump administration is reportedly set to revoke the business and tourism
 visas of as many as 200,000 people that have applied for or are currently seeking asylum
 in the US. If it goes through, it would be the largest single mass revocation of visas in US
 history, but would likely face legal challenges. The expected move reportedly would impact so-called
 B1 and B2 visas issued between 2016 and 2026, whose holders have sought or are seeking asylum.
 And then SpaceX is using a new partnership with NVIDIA to accelerate its plans to launch
 orbital data centers as soon as next year. Elon Musk says his company plans to launch its first
 star-mind AI-1 satellites by the fourth quarter of 2027. We'll still on deck for the show here,
 the US Data Center political pushback, what it means for your money and reaction to Jim Kramer's
 hot take on which firms will make it out on top. Morning calls back after this.
 This political pushback might be a godsend for the hyperscalers. They can comply with these
 new rules the small fry can't. Classic case of government regulation crushing the small fry and
 boosting the big boys. Here's the bottom line. This data center pushback may be a victory for big
 tech. A real cynic would say that they should be back to new rules. Clarity and a little money
 to each town, low electricity subsidy in the clean water commitment would suit them fine, helping
 their bottom lines and crushing the smaller players that are trying to compete with it.
 I'm Dominic Chouin from Oregon Brennan. Welcome back to Morning Call. Chou ask checking
 US equity futures right now. They are solidly big with the Dow coming off its back-to-back positive
 sessions. It's implied to hire by 240 points, the S&P hire by 30 and the Nasdaq 100 hire by 270.
 Taking a look at treasuries, the benchmark 10-year note yield currently stands just below the 4.7
 now, 4.676 percent, the two-year note yield, 4.225 percent. Tracking the dollar as well, it's seen
 a down week for the most part fractionally lower, about two-thirds of 1 percent for the past week,
 currently city at 98.96 for the US dollar index. Now the debate has been
 trade monitor with Bitcoin hitting its highest level in three months. You're topping 80,000
 briefly at one point currently at $79,871. Metals also surging with gold right now at three
 month highs. You can see here gold prices, $4,690 in change at things currently stand right now.
 And a look at the energy complex on the back of those US sanctions on Iran, US benchmark West Texas
 Intermediate currently down 3 percent, $82.46, Brent, the international benchmark, $89.52 off by 2
 and 3-quarters percent. We're also watching shares of NVIDIA after kicking the week off with a nearly
 3 percent drop ahead of the earnings report tomorrow after the bell, writing a seven session,
 sliding session, its longest losing streak in four years. Options traders are pricing in a five
 and a half percent swing in the stock one way or the other on the back of those results tomorrow
 or about a $280 billion shift in market value. The expected move would be below NVIDIA's
 historical average price swing of around seven and a half percent over the course of the last 12
 quarters. We'll have more on that story coming up here. Well the growth of AI data centers in
 the United States is surging with power demand projected to double by next year that's straining
 local power grids and leading to backlash from local communities that do not want a data center
 in their backyard. With a Gallup poll showing this spring showing that seven in 10 Americans
 opposed construction in their area, politicians on both sides of the aisle are now pushing back as
 well with governors in Pennsylvania and Texas recently signing orders placing restrictions on new
 development for those data centers. Here is Texas governor Greg Abbott explaining his decision.
 These data centers are coming online that people didn't see coming. The other is the way that the
 data centers, they didn't do their job to get the support of people in local communities,
 gaining the support of people in local communities is essential because they did not do that. That's why
 I am now coming in as governor saying listen if you're a data center and you want to operate in
 Texas you have to first get the approval of those in local communities. All right some strong
 comments coming from a governor. Abbott AI companies are taking notice of this wave of negative
 sentiment. CNBC reporting late last week andthropic's IPO of Perspectus which is expected to be filed in
 the coming weeks will list this as a potential risk factor. In preliminary meetings with investors
 and bankers the company is being asked what happens if there is a slowdown in the build out of
 data centers. Let's talk more about the challenges with Sarah Coons to the managing director at
 Cleo Capital and you know it's interesting just a few weeks back we had a conversation with Chris
 Crosby who's the CEO of Compass Data Centers one of the biggest privately held data center developers
 in America and what he had to say was hey local communities tell us what you want give us the
 list of what you think you need for us to do this and we will help make it happen. There is seemingly
 a dialogue that will happen between local communities and these private developers what else needs to
 happen for data centers to become more viable without such public backlash.
 I think they have to provide some value to the public right and not in the sort of long tail hey you
 know now your Google search results are a little bit better or it's a little bit easier to do stuff
 when you're when you're using a meta product it has to have a tangible benefit and for many of
 these people it doesn't and I also think that the sort of tech ethos of move fast and break things
 does not translate well to city hall and they are finding that out in real time this isn't like Uber
 where a lot of people said hey actually we don't really care about the taxi monopoly we want to be
 able to get from place to place in this case they're looking saying what's in it for us we're not
 getting anything out of this and it's become a really good indicator of hey very little is going
 our way for the average American why should we let this through on top of everything else what can
 those data center developers and hyperscalers and other people who are trying to build these AI
 data centers do to get that public support is it something like hey we're going to build you
 ex new schools and or a fire department and or a new kind of recreation center or or how many jobs
 do we have to bring what kind of collection or what portfolio of benefits do you think local
 communities are looking for to green light these projects I mean I think there's two pieces there
 right what the local city councils and things are looking for as well as what local people are
 looking for we know that data centers don't bring a ton of jobs this is not you know Ford in the 1950s
 starting factories and providing generational solid blue collar working class jobs this is hey we
 have to bring out a few plumbers we pay them a lot of money at the moment um but then once it's
 built in a year or so it takes a few security guards right and a couple maintenance people
 and that is your your employee base so many of these communities I'm I'm from Michigan where there's
 been a lot of this uh you know sort of uh outrage and and we have seen especially since 2008 that very
 few big employers very few big companies that come in um keep their promises do much to benefit
 the community long term it's hard to tell a state like Michigan where flint you know Michigan still
 doesn't have clean water that hey the data centers will take care of you and so I don't think it's
 about the data centers per se I think they've come to represent something much much bigger are we
 also now seeing some of the ripple effects on the valuations of these large AI oriented companies
 I had mentioned anthropic listing possibly in their perspectives coming up a risk being the kind
 of pushback on data center buildouts are we seeing some of these valuations possibly at risk
 in not just the big private ones but also the big hyperscalers that are publicly traded as well
 because of the AI at least pause so I think what you're going to see is a market sentiment shift um
 I do not think that this is the safest time in the world to be a big tax CEO a data center CEO
 even though it might be one of the most lucrative times in history um I think that for these CEOs
 for the invidias of the world where you're used to sort of being beloved and you wear your leather jacket
 everybody recognizes you everybody loves you that sentiment has markedly shifted and I don't
 know if it's going to come back anytime soon um I think for the IPOs we're going to see them have
 to stand more on their merits than on hype and excitement and as we're seeing in real time with
 SpaceX that doesn't go super well um once you dig into the economics and you say wait you're not
 going to be profitable to you go to Mars and you don't have any way to get to Mars and so
 you know I think that you're going to see a much more critical lens applied to these IPOs
 and then for the big companies I think that there will be an increasing consumer sentiment concern
 I think that that main street while not the biggest buyer um of stocks is going to pull back because
 they don't like these names and they're also starting to believe in them less um and I think we'll
 also see uh does the AI adoption actually scale uh with the data center build out we know that
 almost every enterprise study we've seen says actually um we're spending too much on AI and we
 could not tell you uh how it's helping or what it's good for we have to hire people back or we have
 to roll back our our layoff plans right so it doesn't seem like AI's working well kind of anywhere
 and then the data center piece of it is just that very loud very noisy you know maybe polluting
 pushing up your power prices physical manifestation that you can kind of throw rocks at
 all right Sarah Kuhn's at Cleo Capital with the AI data center pushback thank you very much we'll
 see you soon a lot more to come here on morning call as well including commercial real estate
 showing some signs of life Dina Oleg breaks down the one component essentially left for dead
 that's not helping fuel that rebound and as we had to break a check on the automakers after getting
 hit yesterday on President Trump's threat a 50 percent auto tariffs on all imports coming from
 Canada starting in January after falling between one and three and a half percent yesterday shares
 this morning you can see are relatively stable morning call was back after this
 welcome back to morning call to commercial real estate now seeing signs of life after a rough few
 years including the reality of higher for longer interest rates Dina Oleg has exclusive new
 details in this week's property play Diana well good morning dumb that's right investors are
 getting a boost in both confidence and credit resulting in more competitive bidding for commercial
 real estate bidding for properties in July posted its strongest monthly improvement in a year
 that's according to quarterly bidding and credit indexes from JLL released first here to the
 property play now the month also saw the second highest count of unique bidders in the indexes
 five year history competition among lenders is also well above previous record highs the spread
 between credit and bid intensity is actually narrowing after you see that peak spread in May there
 credit is the leading indicator for bidding in other words credit availability sets the tone for
 liquidity now all this even though macro uncertainty in the economy prevails and interest rates
 remain stubbornly high so where's the action right here's a surprise retail after that
 sector was declared all but dead due to e-commerce retail is seeing new life the bidding for properties
 is also getting more competitive and that's because current landlords like their returns and so
 aren't so interested in selling anymore also industrial consider continues to see strong demand
 much of that thanks to ensuring manufacturing to reduce supply chain risk and of course avoid tariffs
 now the weakest sector continues to be multifamily as an oversupply of new construction still makes
 its way through the pipeline and rents remain flat to slightly lower now for much more on this story
 and a brand new tracker for data center financing you were just talking about it it's all in this
 week's property play newsletter drops in a couple of hours you still got time cmbc dot com forward slash
 property play all right thank you very much dine olex for that we'll keep an eye on that property play
 newsletter as well we appreciate it straight ahead on the show the morning call crew
 assembles team up the trading day ahead and the story one member says is the real catalyst for
 markets right now it's time for your call sheet coming up keep it right here all right welcome
 back time now for your call sheet the crew members assemble today are Jessica in skip of stockbrokers
 dot com Tim Seymour of Seymour asset management also a cmbc contributor and Victoria Fernandez of
 cross mark global investments our first topic today will be of course geopolitics it's
 front of mind right now whether it's Iran and or Canada and maybe I will start Tim with you on
 this one here the global investing background that you've had have have maybe maybe colored some
 of your opinions of how markets do react in times of geopolitical uncertainty how important are
 Canada in the US and the US and Iran to the market narrative overall I think they're very important
 I certainly think the US Iran if you think about oil price and the correlation what we've seen
 with the 10 year and I think the markets are all about the 10 year here I think the US Canada
 yeah the latest on trade I think we're going to work through it I think the the concern
 around what those headlines mean is a lot less important than probably the the sanctions and what
 China is thinking in terms of the impact on the the US Iran sanctions so yes all very important
 I think how it boils into the 10 year and the 10 year rates and where we are in the long end is
 very very important here we'll speak enough everyone's got their eyes on interest rates because
 not just of that but we've got Jackson hole coming up as well and PCE inflation data Jessica
 I'll go to you for this one if you take a look at the way things are shaping up for the markets
 they seem to be at least shrugging off for the most part higher yields on the long end and the
 threat of maybe bad catalysts on the interest rates side down the line is the market in your mind
 justified for not being as I guess volatile around those rates I think it's very susceptible to
 shocks right now and I think it's interesting how those rates have subdued but I think a lot of
 that has to do with what Bessent has announced and it's a balance of items where we want to hear
 what's happening with PCE that will give us indication on the front end we've got competing now
 on the long end with the 30 the 30 year and fiscal policy so how is Kevin Worch actually going to
 interpret that and that baby perhaps what the market is actually waiting on we have some uncertainty
 it creates ceilings from a technical perspective that uncertainty needs a catalyst and right now
 that's clarity and I I feel like it's just communication so the next three days are going to be
 very interesting in the market for sure now Victoria it seems as though based upon what Jessica laid
 out this is a wait and see market everyone's waiting to see what Kevin Worch says at Jackson
 Hall this is not a forum that has led to massive monetary statements in the past what exactly would
 you expect out of Jackson Hall yeah you know Dom I'm afraid if you get up and go get yourself
 a cup of coffee you may miss the whole speech I mean he has not been known to be long-winded especially
 when we're looking at the press conferences after the FOMC meeting so I actually don't expect us
 to get too much information I know there's a a hope by many that he will get out ahead of the
 September FOMC meeting give us a little clues to what's going to happen but he just doesn't seem to
 lean that way I think he's still waiting to get all the reports from his committees that he put
 together before he makes any kind of big statement and when you look at the 10 year that we've been
 talking about this morning it is in this kind of wedge pattern and I think it's waiting to either
 hear something out of Jackson Hole or hear something on the geopolitical front before the 10-year
 breaks out one way or the other but I'm afraid it's not going to be Jackson Hole but gives it what
 it wants to hear all right so from the macro to the biggest arguably micro economic driver of
 the markets this week it's going to be Nvidia earnings after the closing bell tomorrow Tim I'll
 start with you on this one here what are your expectations and just how much has Nvidia been kind
 of a new barometer of the AI trade we know it was the poster child before it's relatively flat since
 it's last quarterly report well it's yeah but it's down seven straight days going into at least
 today and going into earnings I think it's a pretty decent setup to be to be honest with you I
 I'm concerned about semis and and if you look at where they perform relative to the S&P they've
 certainly rolled over they've certainly rolled over relative to themselves Nvidia to me is going
 to be a story about circular financing it's going to be a story about gross margin it's going to
 be more of the big picture I think than the small pictures so I kind of like the setup for
 Nvidia here I'm not as I would just say concerned overall about the circular financing other than
 I think the impact we've talked about on the macro is very important here so very important to get
 through this number and unfortunately then the markets have nothing less to focus on but the macro
 Jessica you're an your an options expert take us through what the option setup is what's
 it implying I talked about that the move five and a half percent you expect it to come to fruition
 I do what's interesting is the moves and the implied moves have actually started narrowing
 which and I pulled up implied volatility as well from the past implied moves and that has also
 come down which makes sense mathematically if you have less moves we're going to have less
 implied volatility at least from a projected perspective I think what's interesting though is
 we have this competition with the options market almost with the bond market if that makes sense
 and it's all very related even when we're thinking about the debt that's happening with all of
 these hyper scalers they're competing for funding also within the debt market and so there is
 almost the ceiling that is happening with rates across the market and it's boiling into
 micro so really from Nvidia yes the implied move is five and a half percent I'm sure we'll see
 something around that but what I really really want to understand is what's happening with financing
 and the diversifying of revenue outside SMIs all right yeah Jessica in skip Victoria Fernandez
 Tim Seymour thanks very much for being part of the crew today we appreciate it
 now on CNBC dot com slash sport