My Trading Game Plan | August 26, 2026

My name is Gareth [music] Soloway and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
[music] beat hype and narratives every
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me [music] a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, we just got the PCE inflation data
out. Generally, it was in line with a
slightly hotter number uh on a few
headline points. And I want to show you
this, guys, because I do think this is
important. So, here at 8:30 a.m. the
data drop hit and you can see that
headline number, which is again
including food and energy, but it did
come in slightly hotter than expected at
3.7% versus 3.6%
the in the estimate. Um however, core,
if you strip out food and energy, came
in 3.3%,
which is in line with estimates.
Headline PCE month-over-month was also
slightly hotter, but again, strip out
food and energy and the core
month-over-month was in line. Personal
income came in a little bit better than
expected. Personal spending also came in
hotter than expected and ultimately real
consumption stalled out. And maybe
that's the key here, folks, is that real
consumption means that for your money,
are you getting more? And the answer in
those numbers is absolutely not. All
right, a couple other things here. If we
look at real GDP, that came in in line.
It was the new estimate or the new
number for the last quarter. Uh again,
GDP price index 6.4%,
uh which was slightly hotter as well.
And then core PCE prices did get revised
up last month. So, that's a little bit
of a hot indicator as well that the core
PCE did get revised up. All right. So,
let's digest this cuz to me numbers are
like blah, right? Um that's a technical
term, by the way. And really when it
comes down to it, this was slightly
worse than expected economic data, not
by much, but just a little bit. The
markets downticked a little bit on this
news. Basically, the S&P down slightly
this morning. We'll take a look at the
chart in a second. But, overall,
everyone is now saying, "Okay, we know
the inflation numbers. Yeah, maybe a
little hotter than expected, but what is
Nvidia going to report after the bell?"
And then on Friday morning, what is
Kevin Warsh going to say at his speech
from Jackson Hole, Wyoming? All right.
Those are the key metrics. Now, before
we get into the charts, I do just want
to put up the Fed Watch Tool here. So,
if we take a look at this, we can see
that right now there is no expectation
for a rate hike in September. And
October now is favoring no rate hike as
well. Now, what's interesting about this
is that again, we had a slightly hotter
than inflation than than expected
inflation, but it's not hot enough yet
to trigger a Fed rate hike in September.
Now, obviously, that could change Friday
morning at 10:00 a.m. when Kevin Warsh
speaks. But, right now, until December,
there is no hike expected. And I'm still
going on record, and I've said this
since the beginning of the year. I said
the Fed, I don't think they're going to
hike at all throughout the course of the
year. And I think we'll even get cuts in
2027.
All right. So,
let's jump into the charts now. As
always here, folks, here's again where
the S&P was. So, you can see that
yesterday we had that early fall and
then the S&P kind of climbed out of bed
closing basically flat to positive. I
think it was up about 2/10 of a percent.
Overnight we had a small dip, then
recovered, sideways chop going into the
economic data we were pushing up and
then again the slightly hotter inflation
bringing the markets back in. But again,
it's not like this is a big move. Let's
be fair on this. This is just a slight
downside move on the S&P futures. Now,
flipping over to the daily chart of the
S&P, where are we seeing things here?
We're still above our key pivot line.
Remember this is the pivot line that get
guides me to whether or not I am
short-term bullish on the market or
bearish. And right now we're above it,
so that is a bullish factor. As long as
we hold this, I'm bullish. If we break
below this 7570 level, I go into
neutral. Neutral, this is your neutral
zone right here. All right, this would
be your neutral zone here. This is your
bullish zone.
And if you get below here, this is the
bearish zone. Any break below this trend
line here triggers a much more bearish
potential scenario for a breakdown and a
major breakdown in the markets. And
again, just to zoom out on the chart as
I always like to give you guys the
bigger view. These are
taking the high trend line of a parallel
that goes back to the COVID lows, bull
market 2021 highs, bear market 2021 2022
lows, and that subsequent low here when
Trump announced those tariffs, those
sharp rise in tariffs in 2025.
We then tagged the high end of the
parallel, fell back, and then broke out.
And then you have this ascending trend
line, which basically, if we zoom in,
gives us our upper trend line of
resistance, our lower trend line of
support, and our pivot line right in the
middle. Okay? So, that's where the S&P
is right now. S&P, if you look at the
last 3 days, has almost done nothing, a
lot of sideways chop. But, remember,
the last 3 days, we've all been talking
about PCE, Nvidia earnings, and, of
course, the Kevin Warsh speech on Friday
from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. All right.
So, let's go on to the dollar today. The
dollar catching a little bit. Remember,
anytime you have slightly hotter
inflation numbers, the dollar's going to
go up because the thought process is the
Fed might be slightly more inclined to
hike rates, which, again, makes money
supply it it doesn't necessarily shrink
money supply, but it makes money more
expensive to borrow.
So, the dollar up-ticking here, but
don't forget, I don't buy it for 1
second. We had the high end here, in
which we had hit multiple times as
resistance. We obviously had the low end
here, which we hit multiple times for
support. But, when we dropped here,
instead of seeing a bounce back like
that, like we did here and here, right?
What did we end up seeing, guys? What
did we end up seeing here? All right. We
got, in fact, a bearish flag. So, what
we saw was a drop, and then, instead of
a vertical move back up, what did it do?
It kind of lollygagged around that line,
which is forming a bear flag, and broke
down. Well, guess what it's doing again.
So, yeah, the dollar's up today, but to
me, this is just inside bar action,
which tells me probabilities favor an
eventual drop. Now, what could be the
catalyst for that drop? Well, we don't
know, but you could potentially surmise
that maybe the speech on Friday would be
the trigger. If Kevin Warsh
kind of talks a little bit more dovishly
in that speech,
maybe we see
the dollar coming back in and starting
to sell off and the bear flag playing
out. Um having said that, I'm not It's
not something that I would short. I'm
not going to short the dollar going into
that because if he's more hawkish, then
it pops up. And in all fairness, you
could see a pop on the dollar, which is
very common to see a retrace to the
scene of the crime, right? So, you've
broken below this trendline. In
technical analysis, about 60% of the
time when you break a key trendline, you
end up going back to that trendline
before the fall. So, we're far enough
away where it doesn't make If you're a
forex trader, it doesn't make sense to
risk a move up to here even just to get
another down move. It's better to wait
to see what happens here on Friday in
the speech. All right, couple of other
things to go over here as we come
through. Uh let's take a look at the
chart of the 10-year yield and go
through this one. 10-year yield also in
response to slightly hotter inflation
are going back up, but just a little bit
here. So, we saw a big drop the last day
or so, and again, nice drop yesterday,
and then a small bounce today. We are
still tracking this trendline going back
to the March lows to see where
ultimately that all comes out. All
right? Now, we do want to go into some
stocks in motion today. So, Nvidia's
obviously the big one. Nvidia had been
down multiple basically for a week
straight or over a week. Yesterday, it
did bounce, but as we come into
earnings, one of the factors that I am
always watching, and we have someone We
have multiple traders that are options
traders in the office, and I talked to
them this morning, and I said, "Listen,
what are the options What's the options
market telling us?" So, the implied move
is what the options premiums are pricing
in is a 5.9% move on earnings. Now, that
doesn't tell you if it's up or down. So,
that's what the market is pricing in
5.9%. However,
there is a lot of call buying
at much higher levels. In other words,
even call buying to ex- the extent that
it could be institutional, it's that
much money are buying we're talking
about the one I think the one
30s even, the 230s, excuse me, the $230
call options. Now, again, it doesn't
mean it's correct, but the job is to
follow the breadcrumbs, right? And the
data. And the data is telling us right
now that big money is thinking Nvidia is
going to get a bigger than 5.9% move,
and that direction is favoring the
upside. Take it for what it's worth. Am
I long or short Nvidia? No, but I will
obviously be monitoring this after the
bell when the earnings do come out. All
right, next up we have Intuit here.
Intuit falling on earnings today. Take a
look at this drop. Again, a nasty fall,
got a big bounce, and it's kind of been
chopping around. It did get as low as
about $300
yesterday after hours. Now,
if we look at the chart, the chart had
been grinding up for quite some time,
now taking a beating. There is one level
I'll be watching today, which is right
around this 296 gap fill. That should be
a key technical level. That would also
be a pierce of yesterday's after hours
low, and a pierce of the 300 even
number. Plus, it's also a Fibonacci
retrace zone and gap fill. So, 296 is
kind of what I'm eyeing on this. We'll
see if it flushes. Uh it's definitely a
possibility this could easily get down
there intraday. Zoom. Zoom falling on
earnings this morning. We flip to the
intraday. You can see again, fell here
on earnings. Not down massively. I think
it's down about 5% or so, but again
coming back in here. Where is you where
is going to be good solid support? I'm
seeing support right in this vicinity
right through here around 29250. That
would be an aggressive level. So, it's
probably not one I will trade. This gap
fill at one eight at $88. That would be
a level I would get interested in. So,
again 88 is kind of my zone. If you're
more aggressive than me the 92 50 level
could see a technical bounce on Zoom
symbol ZM.
Abercrombie and Fitch reported this
morning. This stock is pushing higher
nicely on earnings. Again yesterday we
had Dick's Sporting Goods that just got
absolutely annihilated
on earnings. But today Abercrombie and
Fitch is which is not I mean listen
Dick's is more Sporting Goods, but A&F
obviously going up on earnings as their
earnings were better than expected. And
that stock again there's a interesting
level. It's right at this gap fill now.
So, I can't short this right here
because it's already at this level.
But I will be eyeing double top around
132 to 133.
So, this area right up here does look
interesting. And again remember every
chart I've gone over that has earnings.
I'm only focusing on day trading levels
at this point. And versus sometimes I'll
show you good swing trading levels. Like
for instance I highlighted KWEB
yesterday and a few others that were
good opportunities in my humble opinion
as swing trades. All right, let's get
into the commodities. Taking a look at
gold this morning. Where is gold
trading? Gold is pulling back a little
bit. It did hit that key resistance
yesterday. Yesterday it eked out a tiny
gain even though but more of a doji but
still it was up yesterday. But today a
good solid sell off as yields are going
higher and the dollar is going higher.
And by the way yields are going up for
the right reason because we have seen
gold go up with yields, but gold has
gone up with yields when it's been
government intervention, which makes
people not want to be in government
bonds and not want to be in the US
dollar, right? When you're seeing
artificial, um, kind of pressure being
applied. Today, we're seeing the dollar
up because of inflation inching up a
little bit. That's a valid reason for
yields going up, so it is putting
pressure on gold. It's kind of this
weird dichotomy now of changes in, well,
what's the reason for yields going up?
And, um, and yes, ultimately, is
inflation a good way for gold to go up
longer term? Yes, but in the short term,
it hurts it. Uh, just like the $40
trillion debt is a very bullish long
term reason to be in gold, but it
doesn't give us the shorter term moves,
um, quite as accurately. Uh, silver
today, let's take a look at silver.
Pulling back just a little bit as well.
If silver pulls back to this trend line,
I am a strong buyer. That would be a big
pull back at this point, but that would
be a very solid opportunity.
Essentially, a retrace to the descending
trend line, which would now act as
support. It was earlier resistance. Oil
fell sharply yesterday, down slightly
today. And again, really what we're
watching here is this wedge pattern, and
we're still stuck within it. Um, earlier
when we started the week, we were up
against it, and sure enough, the wedge
trend line, the resistance trend line
here, rejected price and brought it in
beautifully, all right? Uh, would I be a
buyer down here? Maybe. I'd have to
reevaluate if it gets down there, see
how it comes into that level. Uh, one of
the things that most people don't
understand is that a level is not always
a level. Like, if you have a level
today, if price behaves a certain way,
it may invalidate that level without
even touching it. And that's a step
beyond what more normal retail investors
understand, but this is something that I
I teaching to, you know, you see the
bulb go on above them when you start
showing them how if you get close to a
level but then you you consolidate above
it then all of a sudden it's like no,
don't take that level. The odds, the
probabilities have strongly shifted. And
this is all in the winning trader series
which again will have another sale later
in November on the winning trader
series.
All right. Natural gas today is inching
up last I checked. Again, it is fighting
this trendline. We've seen it above this
trendline multiple times. Today it's
above it again early in the day. Notice
every past time though it has gotten
rejected. The one thing to watch on nat
gas today guys, the inventory numbers at
10:30 and last week it pushed natural
gas right back down. So let's see what
those inventory numbers do. If we
actually get a close above this
trendline, I myself will be relatively
bullish on natural gas in the near term.
Got to see where this thing goes though
before obviously into the days end. And
lastly Bitcoin guys, you know, I did
call the breakout. We we broke out here
and then the bull flag I said it's going
to go. I have now flipped bearish
short-term. The combination of this
ascending trendline right up to here,
low pivots here and then resistance and
then you throw in this zone here from
this low and these highs, it basically
just means there's a lot of resistance
here on Bitcoin. I'm not passing
judgement on whether or not the low is
in for Bitcoin for the cycle, but what I
do know is that at least short-term
there's a lot of resistance here. I
would expect a retrace probably down to
the low to mid 70s and then I'll start
re-evaluating
on once we start hitting Fibonacci
retrace levels on Bitcoin. So a lot
going on here guys and don't forget on
our website you can download our app
Verified Investing. There is so much
incredible content there that is all
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addition, we have daily charts. If you
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have premium services where you actually
see the live portfolio and you're
alerted instantly when I enter or exit a
position, but ultimately, there's so
much free you don't even need to, you
know, and that's what I always say. I
you know, some players out there, they
like the hard sell. No. Listen, you want
to use the app for free, awesome.
Make us prove ourselves.
And if we don't, then you don't you
don't ever think about buying a course,
you don't ever think about a an upgrade.
But if you see the free content and it
it proves itself,
uh that's how I go about it. You know,
and again, you know, maybe people maybe
sales people like, "Oh, that's that's
that's stupid to do." Like, but you know
what? If I don't earn it, I why should I
get it? That's the way I view it. If my
team isn't good enough, we shouldn't be
paid for it. Just that simple. Anyways,
it's just my motto in life and and in
general is like you got to you got to
work your butt off. You got to earn
people's time like you guys like
bringing my alpha and I'm sorry I'm
getting off on a tangent here, but like
you guys are spending 20 minutes with me
every morning.
I need to earn that from you. That's
your time. That's valuable and I
appreciate it. Everyone here does and
it's why we really try to do the best we
can. All right, I digress. Enough from
me. Go have a great trading day, guys. I
will be in the live day trading room.
Come join me there if you're interested.
Have a good one and I'll see you soon.
Take care.