Trading The Close | August 26, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and today,
guys, we actually had somewhat of a
quiet day in the markets despite the CPE
coming in earlier this morning. Now, it
came in as analysts anticipated it to
come in at. However, it was increased
compared to last month. So, that means
that the inflation is going to be
sticky. It's going to be hanging around
and something that the Fed will likely
have to contend with. The 10-year yield,
the US oil rose, the US dollar also
rose, and gold and silver came in on the
day. Aside from that, the major indices
in essence were basically flat. Now,
we'll get into the charts and start off
with the S&P 500. Guys, you can see here
on the S&P 500, we continue to maintain
within this bearish near-term
consolidation after coming down from
this pivot high top back here on August
14th. And we very well may have a
catalyst today, this afternoon, in just
about 10 minutes, when Nvidia reports
earnings, whether we're going to break
out of this bear flag consolidation,
negate it, and push higher, or whether
we're going to start marching to go
lower. Now, the spiders, as I've been
highlighting, we should have an area of
support right here at $760.40.
That's the previous all-time highs.
We've broken out above that, confirmed
above it. That means any sort of retrace
down to this level is a buying
opportunity. But, what's throwing us
slightly a curveball is this
consolidation that's taken place right
on top of this area in which price
should go hit to get a bounce. So, this
consolidation generally implies it's
building momentum for a move to break
through this support level. So, this is
all very curious, something that might
be highlighted and at least
answered by the end of today's show with
Nvidia's earnings pushing up or down.
You can see we're flat on the spiders
after hours at the moment. Into the
queues, you can see here, too, much like
on the S&P 500, didn't really do too
much today. It did finish up .09%
but really just kind of closing in line
with price action yesterday. Now, the
queues are starting to start to form a
little bit more bearish consolidation.
The last six trading days or so have
been diagonally moving down. This needs
to end up stopping, put in some sort of
consolidation, and then it can make
another leg lower. Generally, the
decline movement down ends with price
action actually bouncing and going up.
So, a stabilized decline would be better
with some more sideways chop. So, we'll
see if we get that in the coming days on
the QQQ. Most importantly, I'm gauging
bullish sentiment with this chart right
here, the SMH, guys. And the SMH, as you
see here, finished basically flat on the
day, down .01%. Now, after hours,
slipping just ever so slightly in
anticipation of these Nvidia earnings.
And I'll remind you guys, I've been
highlighting these moving averages on
this chart, and I've been doing so for a
reason. You see this 50-daily moving
average in blue that comes in through
the screen. We had one day above it, and
then a technical sell-off from that
point. The sell-off has pushed price
back into the parallel channel that
price has been contained since the
liberation day lows. So, we've now
dropped back into that trajectory. This
trajectory, to remind you, began back
here. We were very tight within that
range for an awful long time before we
dipped to the bottom and broke to the
upside. Now, we're knocking on the door
from the top coming down. So, that tells
us any bad earnings on Nvidia, next
support this 50% area of the parallel
channel at 528.46.
But guys, this is what makes this Nvidia
report so much more
significant for the markets if we
actually have a positive push, we could
potentially break back out of this
inclining parallel, but then most
importantly for near-term direction,
break above this declining trend line.
You notice we haven't gotten that far
away from it. Matter of fact, last 2
days just getting closer, moving
sideways. So, that's what I'm watching
for near-term bullish sentiment. We get
price action above this declining trend
line, I could say then the semis have
some room to run and that would also
imply the rest of the markets will have
some room to run, too.
Into the 10-year yield, you can see the
10-year yield pushing up ever so
slightly today. We're at 4.649%.
Most importantly, we did not sell off
with that CPE news, which did keep the
markets in check. A little bit of rally
here on the 10-year yield. You can see
on the DXY, the US dollar, we did also
elevate there today, pushing up ever so
slightly, which then in turn put
pressure on the precious metals. You can
see here on the precious metals,
starting with gold, we did actually
decline 1.46%
today and I highlighted that fact
yesterday how we were moving up at an
angle, somewhat getting a little
exhausted with this move, highlighted by
that doji candle that occurred
yesterday, downward movement today.
Near-term support, $4,575.
To remind what gold has done, we've
gotten back into this inclining parallel
channel, highlighted though with a nasty
weekly topping tail back here from
January of this year. So, this march
back up very good for gold, breaking
this bearish consolidation here at the
chart and able to regain access to this
parallel channel. You can cleanly see
though, we're just hanging on by a
thread here at the support, almost
putting in a near-term weekly topping
tail. It wouldn't quite qualify since
price is too close on the left-hand
side. However, that is a signal that at
least for right now, gold price looks
like it wants to take a little bit of a
breather. We'll see if it continues that
path tomorrow with price getting under
$4,575.
Next up into silver, also just chopping
sideways today down ever so slightly
about 1% but keeping a good job
maintaining above the support level at
67.99. That's what you want to see as a
bull, see this price action close above
this level as that keeps probabilities
on your side for a potential for it to
move up. But again, I recognized this
yesterday. We've been hitting this level
of support nearly every day since we've
gotten above it. That's not good for
hanging on
to the support level. But we'll see
where price closes today as that is the
most important for the near term
direction for silver.
Next up on US oil. I highlighted this
yesterday, guys. We did break out and
retrace. So we were due for a bounce
today and that's exactly what occurred.
Now the bounce is somewhat muted. You
would anticipate a bounce after this
retrace to get really close to testing
these low pivots back here $84.52. We'll
see if we get that follow through
tomorrow but still technically US oil is
holding its current breakout very well.
Next up on nat gas, nat gas is on the
verge for potential breakout watch,
guys. You see this here with this
horizontal trend line at $2.90. If we
could in a daily close above that line,
that's the first box nat gas needs to
check off in order to start establishing
a breakout. The second one would be a
push higher above today's candle with a
daily close. That will separate price
from this area allowing any pullback to
catch support off of that level at
$2.90.
So it definitely is on breakout watch,
beautiful bull flag pattern that's been
forming over the last couple weeks. So
this is due for nat gas to start
breaking out and moving up on the chart.
Nice curved bottom here, too. Look at
this left shoulder, head, don't have a
right shoulder yet. Let's see if we get
a maybe a potential
bull flag and have a little cup and
handle pattern develop here for more
breakout potential on that gas. Now
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use. All right, back into the charts we
go. Flipping into Bitcoin next. Guys,
very nice move on Bitcoin over the last
several weeks, but as you can see here,
stalling out. And it's doing so right
after accomplishing hitting the measured
move at 76,000. And it's doing a good
job maintaining above that level. That's
what you want to see as a bull because
as you see over here on the left-hand
side with this horizontal trend line,
we've got a pivot low here. Strong over
through these pivots, we're clearly into
this level of resistance. That area is
at $80,000,
500 80,524.
So, that's the line in the sand to beat
to go up higher. I'm anticipating more
consolidation is needed, keeping that
consolidation above $76,000 on a daily
closing basis will definitely bode well,
keep probabilities high for those bulls
for Bitcoin to push up and break through
this line. If it does, next key
resistance up here just under $90,000,
right around $89,000
on that inclining trend line whenever
price gets up to that point. Next up
guys into some earnings. Now earnings
reactions on Intuit yesterday. They
reported earnings yesterday after hours
and declined nicely to open the day down
here in the low 320 range but closed all
the way back up here at $345.
The initial reaction after hours as you
can see if I flipped to the 10-minute
chart in this extended trading hours.
Look at this. We dropped all the way
down here to just over $300.
And that's where I was anticipating
price to come today but price never gave
us that opportunity. If you see down
here at $300, not only do we have the
entry into the parallel channel with
this one candle but then we also have a
gap filled down here at $296.33
backed up by an inclining support trend
line and the bottom of the parallel
channel. So there's an awful lot of
support down here at $300 if Intuit can
start trading a little bit lower in the
near-term future. Could be a near-term
bounce play right back up to this
inclining trend line at $352. Today
didn't give us that opportunity. Instead
the bulls took back over. Very nice
recovery despite still being down 3.24%
on the day. Another earnings play guys.
This happened this morning with
Abercrombie & Fitch reporting earnings.
Look at this push up over 35%
and we could see that Abercrombie &
Fitch most recently has broken out from
a declining trend line on the chart. We
had a failed breakout attempt here that
looked it happened back in January of
this year but it took all the way over
here until June before price was able to
successfully break out of that declining
trend line and since then it's been up
up and away in an extreme
firework explosion today with a big
blast off here on ANF. Now if you notice
the 618 fib retrace is derived from this
pivot high down to the most recent pivot
low. So this is a major level of
contention. One area I anticipate A&F to
struggle with in the coming days, if not
maybe potential weeks after a big up
move of 35%. Now any profit taking, you
could be aggressive and buy in this zone
right around $130 as these low pivots,
but I would look I would rather be more
conservative, wait for a larger pullback
down here to the 122 level just on top
of this
other previous consolidation and start
inching into the position there for then
re-attack of this fib level at $146. If
it can continue to barrel through
despite being overbought as it is right
now in the daily RSI at 79, next
resistance at 16884, but I fully
anticipate price to really remain in
this range around the 618 fib retrace
for at least
several days if not a couple weeks of
price action.
Next up into two charts that are lifting
off very nicely today despite this tech
earnings after hours. That's A net and
LITE. Now you can see here with A net
most recently we got above this
inclining trend line, broke above,
retested, broke back above and did so
with authority today. Now near-term
resistance tomorrow, this is going to be
a major sign for it to beat 20367. If we
can gap up above that we've got a clear
path to go back and re-attack all-time
highs which also happens to be right at
the top of this parallel channel right
around $213.64.
So be mindful where price opens
tomorrow. If we gap up over that level,
we can have some clean open air space
for A net to push higher on the charts.
Analysts are upgrading this stock in the
$250 to $300 range. So I anticipate some
some flow
of capital to go back into A net if and
when the markets do start really pushing
and ripping higher. Specifically with
the SMH getting back over the 50% the
50 daily moving average.
Next up guys into Light. Now, Light, we
highlighted this before, this declining
trend line where price jockeyed around.
We can see a failed breakout attempt
here, price retreated back, and then we
broke out here on this candle, confirmed
with the continued push up here on this
August 17th. Then, what did we do this
last week? We retraced back down to the
declining trend line, the place of which
price price broke out from. The breakout
retrace bounce play in effect here on
LITE. Next destination, gap fill likely
hit tomorrow at $970,
followed by the 50% area of this
parallel channel. But still, near-term
breakout at hand with LITE that tells me
we could be eyeing all-time highs pretty
soon on the charts. Again, need the rest
of the markets to help it push with
this, likely need the 10-year yield to
simmer out. But still, a great move
there on the chart of Light. Now guys,
we are after 4:30. What do we got going
on here on the chart of Nvidia? And so
far, we see a decline. Let's flip it to
the 10-minute chart. We did get down as
low as 203.50.
So, that brings us not that far away
from closing price at 209.66.
So, I imagine the earnings were good,
but at least it's not that bad enough
for price to sell off and test this
lower range of this parallel channel,
right at $197.78.
We're going to see where price action
stays throughout the course of the
night. If we start rallying up on the
earnings call, then that changes the
entire story. As we see here clearly, we
had a breakout in effect with Nvidia. We
closed underneath the candle the day
before last, yesterday closed above, and
then now you see here today we closed
back underneath, looking like at least
for now we're going to extend away from
this failed breakout attempt on the
chart. Very critical for Nvidia. Do we
maintain the breakout? Do we fail it?
But all will likely come with overnight
trading guys, since this does trade 24
hours a day, be mindful and potentially
even watch this overnight to see if we
come down to the next near-term level of
support just under $200 at 197, backed
up by gap fill at 195, followed by a
second or third gap fill here just under
$190 by that low pivot back there on
July 29th. All right, guys, that wraps
up Trading the Close today. Thank you so
much for tuning in and watching. Don't
forget to like and subscribe to the
video. Send it out to your friends and
family so they too can learn technical
analysis on the charts. Tomorrow, we've
got one more day of Trading the Close,
and then we've got the Jackson Hole
Symposium on Friday morning. So, still a
lot of data to compile, digest, but I
know there should be some good trading
opportunities tomorrow, particularly if
Nvidia starts selling off a little bit
more in the after hours. Thank you again
for watching. Look forward to seeing you
guys next time right here on the charts.
Until then, take care, folks.
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