My Trading Game Plan | August 27, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway [music] and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
[music] beat hype and narratives every
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, number one, we have Nvidia earnings
out yesterday after the bell. The stock
initially sold off on earnings until
guidance was given. When guidance came
out, holy cow, the stock reversed a 5%
or so drop to surge up now currently up
around 7%. We'll take a look at that
chart as always and dive into those
numbers. In fact, let's take a look at
those numbers right now. If we flip over
to Nvidia, revenue up 106%
year-over-year at 96.2 billion. EPS
$2.22
beating by 14 cents. Data center
revenue up 117%
and the guide. This is the incredible
thing. The guide was really spectacular,
much better than expected with a $2
trillion dollar backlog.
And really, if you look below the $2
trillion backlog, that FY full year 2028
growth guide of 70%.
That is what got the stock going. And
what do I mean by that? Well, when we
initially got the numbers out, the stock
traded down. The numbers beat, so
earnings and revenue beat, but we didn't
have the guidance yet. And the market
was anticipating about a 45% revenue
increase in the next year. And when the
CFO, chief financial officer, came out
and gave the guidance, it was said to be
70% expected, much bigger. So, again,
growing revenue at 70% a year when
you're doing almost 100 billion per
quarter, that is incredible numbers and
obviously the stock is responding. Now,
the stock being up 7% or so, it's not a
massive move, but remember, it's a $5
trillion company. So, you know, the law
of large numbers does play in here just
a little bit. Now, if we go to the chart
here, and this is going to be the key,
right? The chart, you can see initially
we sold off on earnings, then surged and
have been kind of grinding up in the
pre-market, a little bit of a fade after
peaking around 5:00 a.m. Eastern time
this morning, but still up sizably in
the morning session. And this
essentially is kickstarting a risk-on
environment again. So, AI stocks, Micron
is up nicely, SanDisk is rallying
sharply. Essentially across the board,
the chip stocks are back in vogue. Now,
this is negative for one group, and this
is one of my thesis points for the day,
is I've been warning that the gold
miners have been ahead of their skis.
Newmont Mining, for instance, made an
all-time high just a couple days ago,
even though gold is still 20%
away from its all-time high. So, again,
there's a disparity there. There's
something weird going on there. And my
thesis was that gold miners were seeing
a lot of retail investment because you
get a bigger bang for your buck. When
gold goes up 1%, the miners usually go
up 2%, and ultimately I thought those
got ahead of themselves, but a lot of
the reason was people were pulling money
out of the AI trade and the chip stocks
and putting it into the miners and gold
and things like that. Well, now that AI
looks back in vogue, money is likely
going to be pulled out of that sector,
the miners, the miners likely will
correct here and we'll see that money
rotate back into the semiconductor trade
at least in the short term with Nvidia
earnings glow in the markets. All right,
so Nvidia again is trading up on the day
here. Let's go to the daily chart. We'll
hit this right off the bat. Couple
things I'm watching. You have an
ascending trend line up here. That's
still quite a ways higher. Ascending
trend line down here. So we basically
had Nvidia trading in a slightly
contracting wedge pattern here.
But if we look at where the first levels
are going to be, there's a gap fill
pivot top right in this area. So I would
say right around this 227 to 228 level.
That'll be first resistance. And if we
get through that, secondary resistance
around 232 followed by your all-time
high at 236.
So you have three levels to watch here.
In terms of swing trading, so these are
all day trading levels for me today.
Nothing here is a swing trade just yet,
but I will show you the swing trading
level. So where am I going to be
monitoring this over the next, let's
say, two weeks, month, two months for a
potential swing short, which is
remember, the difference is day trades
or intraday, meaning I'm in and out the
same day. Swing trades I'm holding for
days, potentially weeks, or even a few
months. Essentially, a swing trade is
anything less than a long-term
investment. In other words, in terms of
capital gains taxes, right? So is it is
it taxed at a income rate, which is
shorter than a year, or beyond a year,
which would be a long-term investment,
and then you get the lower tax rate. Day
trading and swing trading generally is
less than the year. Day trading
obviously less than a day. But the level
here very crystal clear. Look at this,
guys. You essentially have this trend
line up here. Notice how every time we
hit this area, we have a big pullback,
right? So the idea is if we do that and
we rally up let's say here then at some
point we'll get that next big pullback
and that'll be what I look for on a
swing trade shortable level should price
get up into that range. All right, let's
backtrack here. All right, we're going
to come back to where the futures are
trading. Now, needless to say I already
said risk on. So what does risk on mean?
It means the markets are up in the
pre-market. However, they are not up as
much as you might think. Why not? This
is interesting. So futures right now,
S&P futures, this is where we're
currently trading and if we go to the
daily chart, the S&P futures are only up
a third of 1%. It is not a big move. Now
the Nasdaq 100 because of Nvidia of
course is up percentage wise more, but
the S&P is not robustly rallying. And
there's a couple reasons for that. So if
we go back to the 10-minute you can see
again what's going on here. The first
reason and it's all honestly combined
with Nvidia and oil is that yields on
the 10-year are creeping higher. Now why
would yields be going up? Well, number
one, oil is higher today by a little
bit. Not a big move but any sort of
uptick in oil is going to put pressure
on the inflation side of things which
raises yields. Number two,
one of the things Nvidia said, and this
is wild, they said that their revenue
growth would be even bigger if they were
not constrained by how much they could
produce. In other words, there's way
more demand which means capex spending
which means more inflation.
Therefore,
that's telling you inflation up because
of demand for chips, memory, all these
components, all these other things.
Again, that's another thing that's going
to lift yields. So with yields creeping
up, the market's getting a little bit
nervous again as the 10-year yield moves
back towards its recent highs and if we
flip over to that chart, you can see
again, back up on yields, and that's
making the markets a little bit more
nervous. So again, little uptick in
yields taking a little bite out of the
S&P 500, even in spite of Nvidia racing
higher on earnings. Watch those yields,
folks, especially tomorrow with Kevin
Warsh's speech at 10:00 a.m. from
Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the big symposium
for the Federal Reserve. We'll hear from
him tomorrow. That's going to be a big
event, folks, for sure, because one of
the things I'm going to be watching, and
this is so interesting, it's almost like
a a soap opera, is that we're watching
here does
Kevin Warsh comment on Scott Bessent and
the Treasury starting to meddle in the
bond market. Because one of the things
that Kevin Warsh has really been pretty
open about is that he wants to do less
meddling. He wants to let the markets
decide. He wants less intervention from
the Fed. At least that's what he says,
but then the Treasury goes and does
this. This will be the first time we
hear from him. And to make the soap
opera even more interesting,
Scott Bessent, the head of the Treasury,
and Kevin Warsh used to work together at
the George Soros hedge fund. And so, you
know, in theory, they should be pretty
good friends, but now you're starting to
see maybe a conflict developing. We need
to watch that. How does the market
react? Does he even comment on this
tomorrow from Jackson Hole? All right.
Jobless claims today coming in muted,
nothing new there. 100 and 203,000
filings for unemployment. We'll get the
jobs nonfarm payrolls report next week.
All right. Let's go into some charts
here. If we look at the S&P daily chart,
there's nothing new here, guys. We
remain basically chopping sideways here.
Remember, as long as we stay above my
pivot line, I remain bullish on the
markets. Here's my pivot line here, and
we stay above that. So again, that would
be neutral to bullish bias. If we get in
here, it's more of a neutral market and
any sort of break below into this zone
is where you start getting very
conservative and bearish, or at least I
do. All right. Um we mentioned yields,
we looked at those, but the DXY here
continues to form a bear flag. So, this
is still a bear flag, dollar
fractionally higher today. Watch this
pattern, eventually it should yield
another move to the downside on the US
dollar. Again, that's at least what the
pattern suggests based on thousands of
these sort of pattern formations,
probability favors eventually a rollover
as the mature as the bear flag matures
more and more. Here you can see it right
here. Down move, sideways chop, and then
the breakout. Here down move, sideways
slightly more inclined chop, eventually
it should yield more downside in the US
dollar. All right. Let's get into some
other stocks cuz they were, believe it
or not, we're not really in earning
season, but yesterday there were a ton
of earnings. Nvidia obviously being the
big one, but we also had CrowdStrike,
Salesforce, Okta, Hewlett-Packard this
morning, Dollar General reported, Best
Buy reported. Let's take a look at what
we're seeing. CrowdStrike, massive push
up here guys on earnings. Flipping over
to the daily chart, same sort of thing,
major trend line here. So, if it gets
back here, this is my swing trade level.
A retest of this trend line. On a day
trade basis, this is a little trickier.
There's not I mean, we're trading here,
what's the level up in this range? I'd
probably start getting intrigued on a
short if we get somewhere inside of this
area here. All right, so somewhere in
this vicinity. Aside from that, I'm not
really interested. This would be about
216 to 218. Um maybe I'd look at that
for a day trade, but really the level
here, the swing trade's the one that's
more intriguing to me. CRM, big pop on
CRM here just like CrowdStrike and
Nvidia. If we look at this, you can see
the stock had been pounded down.
Granted, it's rallied back significantly
going into the earnings, but still way
off of its all-time highs based on the
SAS the SAS apocalypse or whatever they
call that thing where the the fear was
essentially that AI was going to make
these software companies obsolete. Um is
that unfounded? I think the the charts
got way too cheap. Um but again, the
question is which sink or swim. In other
words, which ones adopt AI and use it to
their advantage versus don't adopt it
and then they fall by the wayside. And
CRM showing some good numbers here,
guys. No doubt about it. Um again, in
terms of a level here, you have a
descending trend line, but notice we had
already broken out above that. So look,
you broke out, you retraced, and now
look, it was a perfect retrace pop.
That's exactly how a chart is supposed
to go. Again, if I just draw it in here,
you have a descending trend line. It
works as resistance. Price breaks out,
then comes back, and once it retests
that, which was at one point resistance,
now support, then it goes ripping to the
upside. And that's essentially exactly
what we're seeing on CRM. Now, in terms
of a trade level, there's a gap fill
here. We've already touched that level
pre-market, so I'm not interested. I
will now start looking at a secondary
level right here on CRM right around 239
to 2 40. And you can see what I'm
finding here. I'm using this pivot high
to this pivot high, right around 239
240, but also look at this. If I take a
Fibonacci retrace from that high pivot
to the recent lows and we drag it
across, look at this.
Basically merging together. You have
your 618 Fibonacci retrace with that
trend line. And so that gives me
additional confidence that the 240 level
should be a very solid opportunity for
at least a day trade. I don't think I
would swing trade that level, but a day
trade in the very least. Okta, big move
up, too. I mean, man, oh man, almost
every stock here except for I believe
HPQ. I think Best Buy's down a little
bit, but Dollar General's up. But most
tech names that reported are having
great moves this morning. So, Okta
surging on earnings here, guys. And
again, we have to zoom out to kind of
get our bearings. This was another one
that had gotten beat down but bounced
back recently. In terms of a level,
there will be a little bit of a level
here
around 185. I know it's $20 away, but on
the honestly, these stocks can move very
easily into that level. That'll probably
be my first shortable level on Okta
there. And then, Hewlett-Packard, the
poor one that is not getting love today
on the back of their earnings down about
10% this morning. And if we go to the
chart, same thing. The stock had been
rallying up into earnings. In this
situation, it's dipping. My level here
is going to be right in this range, 2480
to a gap fill around 2450. That should
be a good day tradeable opportunity in
the action. All right, so that's that's
that one. Dollar General today popping
on earnings. Here again, is that good?
Is that bad? I mean, what does it tell
us if Dollar General's doing real well?
Not that they charge a dollar anymore,
but still how many people are having to
shop at these? In all fairness, I go in
there and I pick up a couple things
every once in a while, too, because you
can get some great kids projects and
different things that are real cheap in
there that the kids can do. Um so, it's
nice to be able to utilize that. But
either way, the stock up a little bit
today on earnings. And what's
interesting is DLTR is actually in the
inverse of that and is falling this
morning on some earnings. So, again,
kind of a dichotomy there or a
divergence. One of these dollar stores
doing well, the other one not. I don't
really have much in terms of levels on
this at this point. All right. Wow.
Let me take a breath.
Okay.
Let's get into the commodities. Gold.
Gold we know hit resistance just a day
or so ago. It started to pull back
yesterday. What is it doing this
morning? Let's take a look. Looks like
it's pulling back a little bit more
today. It's not a big pullback, but
nonetheless this ascending trend line
working its magic rejecting price. Where
would be your first major support?
Around 4425.
This flat top becomes a shelf of
support. If price comes in there, you
would expect it to hold and bounce off
of it. That'll be first support. That
still means gold could fall another
basically 3 and 1/2% before it hits
first support. And like I said, yes, the
the dedollarization trade, the dollar
debasement trade is probably the main
reason why gold ripped here.
But at the same time, it's all about
money, money flow. And if we do see a a
rally in the semis and the semis start
to head back up, the microns getting
back up towards their highs,
the idea would be as some of that money
pulled is pulled out of gold and gold
miners, as I mentioned, and I would
anticipate that to be true if if the the
semi trade holds, and you would see
again the that would be the reason for
gold to come in
and then also the reason for the semis
to go. And then I think at at again at
key levels, gold's eventually going
higher. I mean again, unless for a
miraculous shockingly the government
decides to be fiscally responsible,
which they're not. I think we all know
that. But
as long as that doesn't happen, as long
as fiscal responsibility apparently is
the the thing that no real government
around the world decides to exercise,
then gold is probably a buy on
pullbacks. I mean it just it is what it
is, unfortunately. All right. So, that's
where we are there. Silver flattish
today, still stuck right underneath
resistance. Oil today up just a little
bit. We had a couple pullback days, now
a little bit of a bounce. Resistance
still remains the descending trend line.
Support still remains the ascending
trend line of the wedge. Nat gas, yes
guys, it broke above the level. Is it
going to confirm today? But I am getting
more and more bullish on natural gas. So
heads up on nat gas. Great, finally
closing above the key trend line of
resistance. Could be game on. I think
you could get honestly a move up
literally to $4 on nat gas. I want to
see it confirm though. All right, yes
it's great to see a close below. That's
step number one. Now, can we get
confirmation of the breakout? I'll be
watching for that. And then Bitcoin,
good old Bitcoin, up a little bit today,
but already pulling back from the highs.
And again, you could see Bitcoin really
this morning from 3:00 in the morning
Eastern time to about 5:00, had a great
pop. And now it's coming back in. And
sure enough, it kind of went back on the
daily chart to this zone of resistance.
So there's a lot of resistance here.
Doesn't mean Bitcoin can't get through,
but just keep in mind, it's resistance.
And I always say, it's resistance until
proven otherwise. All right guys, so you
guys are amazing. I hope you guys
learned something today. As always, I
come with my A game as is everyone here
at Verified Investing cuz we know your
time is valuable and we appreciate you
spending it with us. And we want to
teach, we want to enlighten, we want to
teach a mentality of data first versus
emotion first. Versus if you go on
social media, everyone's a crazy person
there. Not everyone, but most people.
Um, here we exclude that nonsense. We
focus on what the charts are telling us.
And like I've said you guys before, it's
the only honestly reason why I'm a
profitable trader is that I learned to
let the charts tell me what to do versus
my emotion dictating my actions. And
when you let emotion take over, and it
this applies really in everything in
life, unfortunately it does,
we usually make the wrong decisions,
right? When we get overly emotional,
we're either angry or or excited or
whatever, it's usually like, "Oh, crap."
And think about FOMO and FUD, right? You
know, fear of missing out. It triggers,
it's an emotional response. Often times
it's the wrong thing. All right, you
guys go have a great rest of your day.
Thank you so much for again being here
and watching my game plan. I'll see you
soon. Take care.