Trading The Close | August 27, 2026

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. Guys, what an amazing day and
follow through we just experienced with
Nvidia. Nvidia hasn't done this in quite
a while as far as usually it's a sell
the news type of event with their
earnings, but they did actually post
fantastic earnings and claim to have
over a $2 trillion
backlog now. So, you know what the only
thing holding Nvidia back is? Apparently
themselves because they've got a lot of
orders on the books waiting to get
fulfilled and they don't have enough
chips to sell. So, Nvidia's marching up.
This does flip the script temporarily on
the SMH. We're going to jump into these
charts here in a second. First off with
the S&P 500 and we're going to do so
with simple moving averages on today to
kind of guide you, give you the training
wheels as to what to anticipate with
this current trend and what's going on
on the charts. All right, so first off,
we got the S&P 500 as I said, we've had
the 20 moving average right here in
yellow. The blue is in 50 and then the
red all the way down here is the 200
moving average. Well, you see the last
four trading days and really six, we
have been doing our best with the 20
trying to help push price up on the S&P
500. Even in this bearish consolidation
price yesterday did try to close up near
that 20 moving average. As you can see,
it's helping to elevate price mainly
with Tesla's news getting itself out of
this near-term bearish consolidation
away from this support level that mind
you still has not yet been tagged. You
know, generally when we break out, we
see a retrace and those retraces are so
valuable to learn, guys. It's something
that I've been talking about in the show
for quite a while and the reason is
because I anybody can do do Anybody like
you can draw a trend line on the charts,
understand where price breaks out, and
then recognize that price likes to come
back to that area. And if you like that
stock or index, or whatever it may be,
that's your opportunity to buy cuz
that's a high probability bounce setup
play, as in in this chart, but it just
didn't actually get there. But we're
going to show several other charts in
which that does work out even in today's
show. So, watch a little bit later and
check out those charts. you see here,
spiders great push up. So, that's near
term very positive for the S&P 500
getting back into this range of
consolidation, which was very bullish
when we were up here on the top of the
charts. Now, if this momentum continues,
upside resistance will be the inclining
trend line. However, I could see this
being a little bit of a tapered reaction
going into the midterm re elections. And
then we'll point that out with the
10-year yield. But next up, the QQQ,
which is the Nasdaq 100 on the daily
time frame. Also, look at this yellow 20
moving average doing its best holding
price up like it's whole extending its
hand and arm up holding the price today
having gapped up very nicely. Now,
intraday and really where the Qs are
right now is just right into these
previous
pivot highs on these daily candles. And
so, really this is kind of a no man's
area for it until we run into resistance
and could be as early as tomorrow.
That's up here at $725.
about $5 above where we closed today.
And you can see where that resistance
come from a declining trend line
connecting these pivots, connecting this
little excursion. And then that area
will likely be some resistance. But mind
you, the more frequently we hit these
lines, particularly the more frequently
we hit them within a short time frame,
it actually weakens it. So, you can see
the Qs are actually shaping up with the
moving averages on top stacked in the
right place, a 20 above the 50, above
the 200, it's actually trying to tell us
we're likely due for a little bit more
higher of a move on the QQQ. Now, the
SMH also displaying a very strong signal
of strength here, getting itself not
only back out of this inclining parallel
channel, but above this declining
trendline, too, putting in a daily
close. So, that's one checklist for the
SMH to start getting into positive
territory. The second one would be to
follow through tomorrow with a higher
close than today's price action in the
candle, helping it to extend itself away
both from this declining trendline, as
well as the top of the parallel channel.
But, you know what it's going to run
into at that point, and this is the
point that I've said I'm mainly
refraining from being near-term bullish
or near-term bearish on the SMH, is
where's price action relative to this 50
moving average. You can see that's at
$584.
If and when we get above that, then we
have a lot of room that we can run up on
the charts and retest even the most
recent all-time highs back here that you
see that was in or in June of this year.
So, we've got to be very mindful to pay
attention to the SMH in the coming days.
The spiders and the Qs, as you see with
the moving averages, are all in their
right spots. So, if they continue to
push, that will help the algos in the
market start buying into this positive
development on the markets. But, mainly,
the trigger for me lies right here on
the SMH with the 50 moving average. Do
we get above it? Do we start putting in
daily closes above it? But, first things
first, one close above this declining
trendline and parallel, let's see if we
can back that up with another momentous
gain tomorrow.
Into the 10-year yield that did push
higher even with these gains. So, you
can see here, even with the 10-year
yield pushing up, it's almost like the
markets or investors don't necessarily
care about this as much. Now, yes, this
wasn't a big push up on the 10-year
yield, but generally every uptick we've
seen in the 10-year, the rest of the
markets have been under pressure. Now,
we did have a big catalyst with the
Nvidia earnings. However, also knowing
percent is backing up the 10-year yield
with purchasing doubling the purchases
of the outdated bonds. So, with that
being said, we're manipulating this
10-year curve. And so, in the near term,
with what's showing on the spiders and
the cues, we could be due for a little
bit of a push higher. We'll see if we
follow up with the SMH. And that's
mainly because in investors know that
the 10-year is being controlled right
now by the Fed. But guys, that lasts
until the midterms. The last that I
read, the planned buybacks and doubling
the buybacks is allotted all the way up
until the beginning of November. Once
that period passes, then I anticipate
the markets will take over again, push
yields higher, or just at that point,
we'll see where inflation's at. However,
it's remaining sticky. With this week's
CPE, that makes it more important to
follow through tomorrow. We've got
jobless uh or pardon me, nonfarm
payrolls tomorrow at 10:00. Plus, we've
got Wash at the Jackson Hole Symposium
at 10:00 in the morning. So, more pieces
of that puzzle regarding inflation and
potential where rates could go. Uh but
with the Fed at play, and as far as our
government backing it up, that tells me
we could actually have some wiggle room
to run until that critical midterm
period at the beginning of November. So,
little things to watch, the little
breadcrumbs dropping on the S&P 500 as
well as the QQQ. Need that last piece of
the puzzle with the SMH to push up
higher to see if we can continue a
little bit higher up until November. But
I don't think it's going to be a
rip-roaring rally uh through that period
simply because of what's going on with
the 10-year yield. Uh into gold, as you
see here, gold really didn't do too much
today. Most most importantly though,
maintaining above the support level,
$4,575.
That's a very good close for gold. Also,
putting in bullish consolidation near
term. Nice breakup, nice stair-step
pattern developing here on the chart of
gold. Need to maintain 4,575
to remain
confidently bullish, but you can see
here this green candle, we can even have
price put in daily closes near the
middle to low range of that green candle
and still remain in that bullish pattern
up here on this chart. So, it's got a
little bit more wiggle room on the chart
for downside to still be in that bullish
sentiment mode. Now, silver, great
bounce today on silver extending itself
away from the support level, but as I've
highlighted the last few days, all of
these candles, except for this one
lonely one on Monday, will have been in
contact with this support level at
67.99.
That definitely weakens the area, but
all the while, you can't deny we got a
bull flag forming on this chart. Little
bit of mixed signals. However, further
extension away from this area would
definitely be good for the bulls since
we wouldn't be hitting it every single
day nearly,
potentially threatening price action
coming down a little bit lower. Next up
on US oil, as I promised, guys, what do
we talk about in this show? We talk
about breakouts, retraces, and bounces,
and that's what US oil's continuing
today. Not very much, it's up 2% on the
day, but nonetheless, it is still
pushing up. Do expect some near term
resistance right here at the low range
of these pivots right around $84.70.
Beyond this high pivot, I anticipate
price for US oil to extend all the way
up to 96.44 if this current rally
continues past this high pivot range.
Next up into nat gas, which almost had a
very nice breakout confirming move today
above this horizontal trend line, one
that I've been pointing out since back
here in April of this year. As since
price has come up to that trend line,
it's been rejected, and when price has
come from above, it's actually also
found support. Even though it's pierced
this range, you can notice price hung
out right here on this trend line,
making this trend line a critical
threshold for positivity and further
upward movement on the chart of nat gas
that levels of $2.90. You can see we
closed above it comfortably yesterday,
didn't quite put in a secondary close
today, in fact closing within this
candle. So, you want to see as a bull
get back up in this range where we were
today and put in a close, preferably
above all of these other pivots,
extending itself, allowing this area to
be support should price plunge right
back down into that trend line at $2.90.
And in the Bitcoin, not too much new to
report today, another test of this
resistance level here, $80,524.
That level comes from a pivot low back
here in November 20 November 21st of
2025. You can string that out across the
screen, you can cleanly see how every
attempt since from below has been
rejected, and these have been monumental
pushes from below as well, as just as
this one has too. Monumental push up,
accomplishing the major move of the
inverse head and shoulders pattern
designated by this neckline that you see
here on the chart, but clearly coming
into resistance right here. Major, major
test. Now, where can Bitcoin go if we
get through this test, which I think
right now we actually likely should be
calming down and likely consolidating if
not pulling back after this huge, huge
push on Bitcoin. But should and if we
break through this horizontal trend
line, the next destination is the
neckline of the previous head and
shoulders pattern on the chart of
Bitcoin. That area is just around
$89,000
by September of this year. Next up,
guys, big time as far as earnings. Look
at Nvidia. We did pull all the way down
here beforehand. Now, let me remind you,
too,
breakouts retraces. One of the most
reliable, playable opportunities in the
stock market, something that can be
notified and identified by one trend
line, guys. Now, what threw us a little
bit of a curveball recently was that
Nvidia was hitting this trend line. Now,
let me get in the chart so you can see
it. So, most recently we put in a high
here in video on May 14th. Drawing these
breakout trend lines is so simple,
folks. Just take this trend line from
the high pivot, draw it down to the next
major pivot that occurs on the chart,
extend that all the way down on the
chart, and as you notice, we had a nice
breakout that occurred here August 5th,
and since then extended away from that
trend line, allowing this trend line to
become support for anytime price could
come back in and retest it. Now, notice
we hit it and closed underneath it on
Monday. We didn't have any other further
extending moves. Matter of fact, the
following day, Tuesday, closed above,
and then into earnings where investors
were trimming in case of a bad report or
more or less a bad reaction. We knew
Nvidia was going to have good earnings.
It just was Was it going to be good
enough to satisfy the analyst
expectations? And we can see today, we
clearly had that occur, but we had
inside as to what was going to happen,
too. We were in the middle of this big
move up and big move down. So, in that
regard, without this breakout retrace at
play, you would kind of say, "You know
what? It's a 50/50 shot if it's going to
go up or go down." But this breakout
retrace play increased probabilities of
that bounce, and bounce is what occurred
right here on the chart. You can see
near-term resistance on Nvidia up here
at $231.18.
Clear that, folks. We're not only
talking about retesting all-time highs,
we might be talking about making new
ones as the new resistance beyond
all-time highs will be the 50% area of
this longer
inclining parallel channel at the
charts, right around $240.
Want to see another breakout retrace
play? It occurred all basically today as
far as the bounce is occur is is
concerned. Look at Dollar Tree's chart.
Now, they reported earnings, as you see
here, before the market opened today.
So, after Nvidia yesterday after hours,
and before the market today, but
recently Dollar Tree has broken out yet
again, guys. Draw a trend line from the
pivot high to the very next pivot. Draw
that trend line all the way down on the
chart. You can see how we struggled to
break out, even retested back in the
trend line, but then ended up breaking
out before today's earnings report, and
the earnings report plunged price down,
opened up, matter of fact, underneath
this trend line, right into this gap
fill. So, I had a two-factor level
stacked right on top of each other, and
goodness gracious, what a bounce. Price
did not stay down here long. You can see
here from the 10-minute chart, it almost
was just like touching lava as a little
kid or a hot water. Immediately after
touching it, bounced straight on up, and
that illustrates the power of these
breakout retrace plays. It's simple to
do. Draw one line. You can figure this
out on a myriad of charts that you've
got in your favorite stocks. Find that
level, set yourself up with the right
probabilities, and start putting money
into your portfolio, which eventually
makes it back to your bank account, so
you can buy your favorite brand new TV,
house, car, you name it, whatever it may
be. Now, next up, into CRM. CRM also had
earnings, guys. Big beat here, up 80% on
earnings per share, revenue up .13%.
Look at this big push, over 20%
nearly in a straight line, as you see
here, guys. Even backing that up after
all of this diagonal push higher. So,
this really was a last little bit in the
tank, really catapulted by the earnings.
Where's resistance likely coming next?
Likely up here, 259.00. And 60 cents,
right here on this dotted line, and I'm
going to show you where that comes from.
Flipping to the weekly time frame, guys.
Look at this. This is a head and
shoulders pattern on the chart. Didn't
quite get all the way down to the
measured move. So, believe it or not,
that's still a potential possibility
until price can close over this
inclining neckline of the head and
shoulders pattern. That is the critical
line to test. We would We are extended
moving up into that. And if you notice,
too, a lot of other consolidation. Two
factors present themselves for CRM
running into a brick wall right here
just under $260
on the charts. Next up, CRWD. Similar
occurrence up over 20% off of earnings,
but this case regaining this inclining
parallel channel. And I had two to kind
of illustrate what was going on on the
charts. In In essence, the breakout
retrace bounce play off of the previous
parallel channel. But this recovery is
one to behold. You should definitely
watch this to see if it has staying
power tomorrow with a close above
today's candle high, which could be a
strong test considering how far it's
pushed today. And if we do that, we're
going to be running right into
resistance, as you see here, at $232.32
with this
string of pivot highs connected by this
inclining trendline on the chart. Next
up, another big earner, guys, Okta. OKTA
up 28%.
Look at this tech lift off. Un-
Incredible, guys. Now, this in Okta,
honestly, has been in the making for the
past several years as far as this
breakout is concerned. But near term,
look at this on the daily chart. You can
see this breakout retrace bounce retrace
bounce retrace pierced about to break
down much like the Nvidia chart breaking
beneath that trendline right before
earnings. Investors trimming getting out
of potential, you know, a big whip to
the downside on the stock. But as we see
here, this simply was another test of
the top of of the parallel channel. All
of this ended up being consolidation. As
we zoom out further with this extended
breakout getting above this
consolidation, you can cleanly see where
the next destination of Okta is likely
to take us. Very nice break of that
parallel channel. But when I scroll back
out, look at this, guys. We've got an M
pattern up here at the top of the charts
and we've got a very sharp, big push
higher with this incline on the chart
that should come straight to the bottom
of this N, which also happens to be a
major fib retracement level at the 618
for this big move right here sub $200 at
$198.55.
Maybe we get a pierce if we continue
this momentum up in the coming days, but
I anticipate a brick wall to stand right
here, unless of course we can have a lot
of consolidation. And as I say a lot,
I'm talking about consolidation like
what occurred over here that could take
upwards of over a month and we'd have to
do so right underneath this resistance
level to break through on the first go.
Otherwise, that's your area where price
is going to hit a wall and likely have
some sort of profit taking and or at
best case scenario consolidation. So,
this recovery on Nvidia has really
brought some light back into AVGO. Now,
I understand, guys, there can be several
ways to draw these parallel channels.
However, in this parallel channel with
AVGO, notice how precise the top end of
this rail is up on the up on the very
top. We see price action getting
rejected cleanly four times. Now, on the
bottom, we have one clean bounce, one
little dip, and then we have the
secondary dip here, but price action
today, as you see, is closing back
within that parallel channel. Now, this
isn't the best of news for AVGO because
we just found ourselves back into this
bearish consolidation range, but the
good news is one close back in and
they'll be easy to put in another higher
close tomorrow as this price action just
barely trickled into the parallel and a
close higher tomorrow will help AVGO's
probabilities in remaining back within
that parallel and then go into test the
next key level, which is going to be
trend line to trend line, and that level
will be right up here just above $400
depending upon how long it could take
for AVGO to get up to this range, but
very good near-term push there on the
chart of AVGO. Lastly, guys, we got the
chart of Tesla and you can see here with
Tesla also diagonal inclining push
higher. Not too much consolidation
occurring on this jag a diagonal move
upwards on the charts, which tells me,
folks, this rally is likely going to run
out of steam at one of these two
locations. We've got a declining trend
line on the chart of Tesla coming in at
381.28
followed by this inclining trend line at
387.23 and I'll show you where that all
comes from. I'll zoom back out on the
weekly time frame so you can get a
better understanding of this breakdown,
retrace, and rejection play on the
opposite end of the spectrum from the
breakout retrace bounce plays, but it
works just the same on the bottom end,
too, and that's exactly what Tesla looks
like it's doing with this mammoth red
weekly candle. It will take a lot of
consolidation to get through that, and
where does that happen to be? Right in
this resistance zone that I highlighted
before switching to the weekly time
frame, right around 385 upwards of 389
on the charts. All right, guys, that
wraps up trading the close. Lots of
heavy big hitters on the show today,
Tesla, AVGO, Nvidia, and huge tech gains
with Okta, CrowdStrike, CRM, some
software plays, some
actually semiconductor plays. Really
amazing day in the markets. See if we
get that follow through with SMH, the
S&P 500, and QQQ all look great. They
look like they're starting to gear to go
a little bit higher. We'll see if we end
up getting that follow through tomorrow
to close out the week. Thank you again
for watching. Don't forget to like and
subscribe to this video. Send this out
to your friends and family so they too
can learn technical analysis on the
charts. That wraps up this week's of
trading the close. We'll see you on
Monday. Until then, guys, we'll have a
live show tomorrow of Crypto Combat at
1:30. Tons of fun with with letting
loose and seeing how much money we can
make in about 45 minutes of day trading
with cryptocurrency. Gets wild with that
leverage. Look forward to seeing you
then. Until then, we'll see you back
here on the charts next week. Take care,
folks.
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