The Weekly Wrap-up | August 28,2026

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that count, [music]
wrapped up with clarity and precision.
This is weekly wrap up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey folks, welcome to the weekly wrap
up. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief
market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
And we had a wild day in the stock
market, mainly in the yields surging to
the upside on the back of Kevin Warsh's
speech, the dollar rallying sharply
higher, gold getting punished and
absolutely crushed, and Bitcoin doing
the same. So, I'm going to break it all
down, what was said, what's going on,
and what does this mean for next week's
price action? And really, what matters
to me and you, where the heck are the
trading opportunities in the market? So,
number one, we had the big event today,
the speech at 10:00 a.m. The markets
were rallying up into the speech, hoping
for a Fed that was kind of lukewarm,
maybe not super dovish, but not super
hawkish. They got a Jerome uh excuse me,
I almost said Jerome Powell, but they
got a Kevin Warsh that was very hawkish.
And again, as soon as it was digested by
the market, the markets began to sell
off from the highs of the day where we
were nicely green to go negative, and
gold and silver and Bitcoin took a major
dump. Let's take a look at the S&P on an
intraday basis, so you can kind of
gather what went on here.
Let's jump into the chart. This is the
intraday 10-minute, so again, every one
of these candles is 10 minutes long.
This is where we closed yesterday, okay?
So, we opened here, we kind of went up a
little bit, then had a little sell, and
then going into the speech, and at the
beginning of the speech, the markets
really surged to the upside. And then
all of a sudden, right up here, it
became apparent that the Fed was much
more likely to hike in September than
previously thought. And you can see the
markets just traveling down down down
down down, and then by about 2:00 p.m.
we just went sideways into the end of
the day. Now, I want to show you
something here, folks. So,
basically, we obviously understand that
the markets
were gauging on whether to expect a hike
in September. This morning, I looked at
this in the game plan, and we saw that
the Fed was projected to keep rates
stationary, 64.3%
chance that they would not do anything
in September. You can see it outlined in
green. That was the probability as of
9:00 a.m. this morning, an hour before
the speech, that that Kevin Warsh and
the Fed would not raise rates. Now,
let's take a look at this here. Let's go
and look at the other one. Here it is.
After the meeting this afternoon, it
flipped, and now the odds are favoring a
rate hike in September. All right, so
that's remember, that meeting is on
September 16th. Today is the 28th of
August, so it's just over 2 weeks away.
Be ready for that, folks. That is going
to be important. So, that's really what
ended up happening today, and if we take
a look and we jump back to the charts,
what we can see here is that we go to
the S&P, or I should say the DXY, the
dollar chart, look at that move. And
this is the 10-minute chart. I mean,
when things really got started, the
dollar was ripping higher, and we can
see how the markets behaved. On the
other side, the stock market sold off.
So, remember, the markets tend to go
inverse. When the dollar goes up and
yields go up, the stock market goes
down. Inverse relationship. Going to the
US dollar chart, look at the pop today
on the daily candle. It still has a
little bit more upside potentially to
go, but this is what's unique. Okay, now
a lot of people heard that today. The
media is going to be reporting it to you
guys. Oh, they're super hawkish the do
do do do do.
The dollar, based on technical analysis,
may have a little bit more upside,
but then you should see it turn back
down. And what I mean by that is very
clearly there was technical support
here,
here, and here.
And right in this area we had a
rejection and then a bear flag and it
broke down. When you break a significant
technical support, there's often times a
retrace
back to the level that was support, it's
now resistance, and then rejection comes
in and we head lower. And so while the
dollar could go up a little bit more
next week, what this is telling me, and
this is going to be interesting guys, is
that we have a jobs report next Friday.
Imagine if the dollar kind of goes
sideways to up, and then the chart is
telling us that jobs report may be
weaker than expected. So let's watch and
see next week, but it's fascinating how
the charts can guide us in that way. All
right, the 10-year yield. Look at this
guys, the 10-year yield surging up today
dramatically, almost back to its 52-week
multi-year highs. Basically, the last
time we were this high on the 10-year
bond or the 10-year interest rate I
should say, was back in
in January of 2025. If we break above
this level, which we're almost at,
you're looking at 5% on the 10-year. Is
it going to get there?
We'll have to see, but I am not a
believer and I'll just throw this in
there, folks. I have been a a
all year long that the Fed would ever
raise rates, I am still a skeptic. Sure,
Kevin Warsh talked a great game today.
You know, we got to get prices down.
We're going to get control of prices. I
love hearing that, by the way, because I
think they should get control of prices.
Inflation, honestly, I don't know why
they think 2% is normal. It's not
normal. Inflation should be 0%.
Remember, every little bit of inflation
is a tax on you, on me.
All right, what do I mean by that? Well,
if you earn $100, let's just say let's
say you earn $100,000 for the year,
if there was 2% inflation over the
course of that year, you essentially
lost 2% of of your buying power. Now,
right now, we're at 3 to 4%, so you're
literally getting taxed 3 to 4% every
year because of their inflation.
All right, and again, I say that
seriously, their inflation, because it's
not you. You didn't decide to print more
money. You didn't decide to spend 40
trillion dollars in debt
All right, to finance all this nonsense.
You didn't decide to be a Federal
Reserve and print money left and right.
This is other people's decisions, but
you and I have to deal with it. And
ultimately, again, it is what it is. I'm
here to inform you and be your advocate
in that way and tell you the truth of
everything out there that I know of. All
right, so
the 10-year yield we're watching next
week, does this break to the upside?
Part of me is wondering if this weekend
there will be a Rage Truth social post
um against Kevin Warsh, which would be
very weird cuz Trump literally just
appointed him, but
you know, the Treasury, remember, the
cent, the Treasury head and and the
administration, they just came out
trying to push yields down by talking
about doing buybacks of the long end of
the curve, right? And here you have
Kevin Warsh basically going the opposite
way and causing rates to go up. And so
this is I mean this is almost like a
soap opera. Unfortunately, there's real
world consequences here, but it's
something we have to find out and watch.
All right, so that's where we are on
that. Let's go to a few stocks. So,
listen, the S&P daily chart again, down
today, but look at it, down a quarter
percent. That's not a big deal. I still
am bullish on the S&P near term, guys.
As as ridiculous as things that I'm
telling you are,
the markets are still at least on a
technical basis looking okay. They are.
Wouldn't be surprised if we head up and
make new all-time highs within a week or
two. All right, so again, this is my
pivot line, right around 7570. As long
as we remain up, I would favor us
retesting the yellow line, that'll be
the first test of resistance. If we get
below this orange line at 7570, I would
expect a test of 7370, and if that
breaks, that's where I would get
concerned. Only if this line breaks,
would I really turn into a major bull in
the near term. Excuse me, major bear in
the near term. Now, I want to be clear
on this. Near term doesn't mean that I'm
blind about the long-term implications
of 40 trillion debt, which is now
growing faster and faster and faster,
paying a trillion dollars in interest.
What a waste of money
that is. Think about what you I mean,
you literally, you know, you know, you
have people that want universal health
care, you people that don't, but that
trillion dollars literally could be
total health care coverage. It could be
anything.
You know, but instead we're paying it as
interest payments. What a waste,
anyways. Listen, I didn't mean to get
all riled up and annoyed at things, but
you know, when I think about everything
that's going on, it's hard not to be
because of the mismanagement of the
system that you and I in the US and
really globally because this is not a US
problem alone. I mean, Japan, like look
at GDP debt to GDP, I mean, all over,
the central banks and governments have
said, "Hey, we don't want any bad times
or at least not horrendous times, so
let's just print money ad nauseam. Screw
the future generations that will have to
deal with the consequences, which we are
now feeling more and more. That's the
way it's been done. Now, listen, they
are technically elected, but you know,
maybe we just as as citizens have to do
a better job of electing. Maybe that's
just the end end game. But, think about
all the nonsense narratives that are
spun to kind of get you distracted. It's
another God Anyways, guys, I I digress.
I apologize. I got to get back to the
charts. That's where my lane is. I need
to stay in my lane, and so I do
apologize on that front. Okay. So, let's
go into a couple of other things here,
guys. So, we have the S&P 500 still
neutral the bullish bias. Today was
interesting because names like Amazon
did really, really well. Mega cap tech
did well. So, remember yesterday Nvidia
had a great day on earnings, and then
mega cap tech kind of stalled it out. We
saw some of the other semiconductors
going down. Today Nvidia reversed
and was down big, not giving up
everything, but a majority of its gains
from earnings. And then you had money
flow going into Amazon, Meta, Microsoft,
and even Apple to the upside. You can
see again, a great move up in Amazon,
but look at Meta here. If we bring up
Meta, m e t a, that was green, up 1.2%.
Look at Google today. Google was up
1.75%.
Uh again, Apple, as I mentioned, up
nicely. Microsoft, again, look at
Microsoft breaking out above this level.
You could see it hit this 786 fib
retrace gap fill. It was a great
pullback, and then look, now it's
starting to break through to the upside.
Microsoft, again, most mega cap tech was
up 1.5 to 2%. It's honestly the main
reason why the stock market didn't
collapse today on the back of the
comments from Kevin Warsh. Now,
there were areas that did collapse.
Gold, silver, etc. Let's go into those
right now. Bitcoin as well. We'll start
with gold today, guys. Gold falling
sharply. Look at this. Now, if you've
watched any of my game plans or any of
my videos on my YouTube, I was telling
you
bullish on Bitcoin, bullish on gold,
right, on the breakout of the wedge, but
once we got up to these levels, I did
say, "Hey guys, I even told you I
shorted the miners." I didn't short gold
per se cuz gold hadn't gone as far. It
hadn't overdone it. The miners,
absolutely. I mean, when you have, you
know, in January and February, gold was
at an all-time high and Newmont was at
an all-time high. So, apples to apples,
both at all-time highs.
Both corrected. Newmont went up and made
a new all-time high. Gold went up this
much, but still 20% away from its
all-time high. So, the the thesis, it
was a very simple simple thesis and I
love this about investing. You don't
have to be a genius. You don't have to
know calculus. I don't remember anything
of that stuff. All I needed to know was,
"Wait a minute. Newmont mining went all
the way back to its all-time highs, but
gold is still 20% off of its all-time
highs. Something's off there."
There's the short. And Newmont today
down sharply. GDX down almost over 4% on
the day. So, good stuff there.
Again, notice the chart here on gold did
tell us it was into resistance right
here. Just like the Bitcoin chart I'll
show you. And look at that drop today.
First support on gold is going to be
right here at 4425. 4425, first
technical support. We are almost there
already after just one big down day.
Silver, same thing here, guys. If we
take a look at silver, went right into
this zone of resistance here. You could
see low pivot, high pivot right here.
Boom, slam down to the downside. Um
silver could come down probably as low
as around 63. If it breaks that, then I
start really looking for buys. If it
retraces to this longer-term trend line
of support, I'll keep you guys posted on
that. And then really Bitcoin here, this
is the key here. Again,
I get I Again, I told you guys the
breakout had occurred. And nothing
happened. I looked like the idiot for
about 2 weeks. And I just said, "Nope,
we're still above the trend line." Then
it took off. Once it came up here, I
started to short with members of Smart
Money Crypto. And there's your down move
today just like that. Look at that
beautiful red candle. Now again, am I
going to be a buyer of gold and Bitcoin
on pullbacks? Yeah, absolutely. But,
it's going to have to get to my key
technical levels. The discipline of
trading is that the data tells me what
to do. Now, it doesn't mean I'm always
right cuz I certainly am not, but at
least I'm following what the higher
probability scenario is versus emotions
in the media or social media make us do
the wrong thing at the wrong time. They
get us all hyped up and then we do the
wrong thing at the wrong time. I still
have bad trades, but at least I'm
winning 75-ish percent of the time or
so, and over the long term, that's
great. That's what I want to do. Just
consistent singles and doubles. I don't
try to hit home runs cuz I tend to
strike out when I do. Singles and
doubles. I want to go to the Hall of
Fame in that capacity. That's it. Make
my money that way. Singles and doubles.
All right. Quickly on oil here. Let's
look at oil. Uh if we look at the crude
oil chart, little bit of a downtick
today, almost nothing going on in oil.
It is still stuck within its wedge
pattern. And then natural gas did pull
back today here, folks. But, this is the
key. As long as it holds this support
level, I remain bullish now on natural
gas. So, it's got to hold this 283
trendline. Notice pivot low here, it
bounced up, came in, support, support,
support, bounced up, then broke, and
then look at how on this side, it's now
hit, pullback, hit, pullback, hit,
pullback. Now, it's broken up. So, this
tells us that depending on which side,
that's the side to be on, and right now
it's above, so I am bullish on natural
gas. Now, remember, next week,
Federal Reserve, not Federal Reserve, I
should say the jobs numbers. And lastly,
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going the weekend, guys. Let's go have a
good weekend. It was a good week here,
great volatility, good trading
opportunities. All the services at
Verified Investing just crushing it this
week because volatility is the spice of
life. Have a great rest of your weekend,
guys. I will see you soon. Take care.