My Trading Game Plan | August 28, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway, [music] and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every [music]
time. Now, I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Hey everybody, welcome to my trading
game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now, we have a lot to cover. The
headline story we're all waiting on as
traders and investors is Kevin Warsh's
Jackson Hole speech at 10:00 a.m. Now,
what we're looking for is does he give a
guide into whether we should expect a
rate hike in September on September 16th
or whether or not he will kind of walk
things back and be a little bit more
dovish and kind of let the markets go
with what the Fed Watch Tool is showing
us. So, let's take a look at that right
now. Here we have it, folks. You can see
right now going into this speech, the
Federal Reserve Watch Tool for rate
hikes or no hike, it's at no hike with a
64.3%
chance of that. So, the question, and
this is something I will be watching, is
after the speech, how does that number
change? Does it shift more towards 3.75
to 4% or does it shift even heavier to
no hikes at 3.5 to 3.575%.
Again, that's 64.3%
versus 35.7.
That is what I will be watching here as
we get that speech and the commentary on
it. All right, so that's number one.
Lots of other headlines out there. Talk
of the US taking a stake in Venezuela
oil. Oil very slightly lower, but
nonetheless still holding within that
little bit of consolidation pattern.
We've had earnings this week, Nvidia
being the big one.
For the most part, Nvidia had a great
day on its earnings, but most of the
other market was just slightly higher
across the board. Not a huge rally out
there. As again, I think everyone's
waiting to hear from Kevin Warsh. Now,
let's go into the charts as we always do
here. The S&P futures are starting to
move higher ahead of his speech. And
again, I think what we're looking at
here is the market starting to game the
odds that he will not be too hawkish
when he makes his comments. And
ultimately, the market is hoping he does
not affect the Treasury, the US
government, for intervening in the bond
market like we've seen recently. And so,
the markets are optimistic going into
this. S&P futures are positive here in
the early session. And you can see again
that based on where we closed yesterday,
we closed yesterday right around here.
So, we are net positive. Now, on a daily
chart basis, let's take a look at where
we are. Well, again, here's our
midpoint, which is our pivot line. And
remember, a pivot line essentially means
that when you're above it, you stay
bullish. When you're below it, you're
either neutral or bearish. And right
now, we are above the midpoint, the
pivot line. So, I remain neutral to
bullish on this market as long as we're
above this 7570
level on the S&P 500. Now, if we rally
up today and early next week, we'll be
looking at resistance at this key trend
line, currently sitting around 7865,
give or take. On the other hand, if we
come down, this will act as support at
this 7570 level, but if it breaks, it
opens a trap door for a move to test
down here. So, really, again, the Kevin
Warsh Warsh speech is very, very
important. It's probably the highlight
of the week. Yes, we got PCE data this
week. Yes, we got Nvidia earnings, but
all of that and the market's concerns
revolve around the long end of the yield
curve. The 30-year interest rate, the
20-year, the 10-year, and we know that
those are trading basically the 30-years
at 25 plus year highs at this point. So,
that is a concern. It's one of the
reasons why the government has tried to
manipulate the bond market by buying the
long dated bonds and issuing shorter
duration bonds. Again, I don't agree
with it, but that's what they're trying
to do is keep those long end numbers
lower. All right. Let's go to the dollar
and check in on the US dollar today.
Still making what we would refer to as a
bear flag. So, again, even if we
continue up here, and we could. I mean,
bear flags, remember, there's no
guarantee that you fall today on Kevin
Warsh's speech. We could continue up on
his speech and fall here or even go
higher and fall there, but the point is
as long as this pattern continues, it is
a net bearish pattern, which means at
some point the resolution is for the
dollar to go lower. Is that good for us?
Well, it's good for manufacturing
potentially, but remember what it does
do is it imports inflation, which
obviously has been a sticking point.
It's interesting today, we did get a few
head
Federal Reserve governors and players
that did come out pretty hawkishly early
on in the day ahead of the Kevin Warsh
speech. And so, again, you could see
even yields creeping up a tiny bit, but
the markets are still optimistic on the
speech and the result of that speech.
10-year yield, you can see it's up just
a little bit on the day ahead of that
speech. As I said, 10:00 a.m., I'll be
watching this chart. I'll be watching
the dollar. I'll be watching the S&P
futures or the S&P 500. I'll be keeping
an eye on gold cuz gold's going to move
off of this. Silver's going to move off
of this.
Oil, probably not so much. Oil obviously
revolves more around what's going on
geopolitically, but again, even Bitcoin
is likely to make a significant move off
today's 10:00 a.m. speech. All right,
let's go into some charts on stocks that
are making big moves, and there are
certainly some with some great trading
levels. So, let's take a look. MRVL
dropping sharply on earnings yesterday.
Their earnings actually beat as did
their revenue, but again, when you're a
semiconductor company, you can't just
beat earnings and revenue. You have to
guide zillion times higher. I mean,
Nvidia set the bar saying, "Hey, we're a
$5 trillion company making basically 400
billion in revenue this year, and we're
going to guide up 70% in revenue for
next year." I mean, think about the
numbers we're dealing with at this
point. It's mind-boggling. So, the point
is is that MRVL had good earnings, they
said the right things, the stock is
still going down. It just was not good
enough. And if we go to the daily chart,
you can look at this. I had annotated
this out days ago about a major zone of
resistance. And look at this, I love
this chart because you can see all the
pivot points along here, right? Major
pivots, 1 2 3, and then even this upward
zone. This upward zone is the 618
Fibonacci retrace. So, we had this great
bounce off of this trend line here, and
notice how it came up here, got
rejected, came up here, got rejected,
and now it's getting a gap down on
earnings. Really amazing to see that
technical zone of confluence with the
pivot points and the Fibonacci retrace
holding up so well and rejecting price.
Now, on a technical analysis basis for a
day trade, I would start eyeing this
21575
level. There's a gap fill there and just
below here at 211 and change. So, right
in this range, I would potentially think
about a day trade. There's a secondary
gap fill down here, but this is more of
an important level on the macro side of
this chart because it's also right near
this ascending trend line. And so, yes,
this could get a bounce and I would
absolutely be a day trader here at least
for a day trade, but I'd be concerned
what happens if we break this level. And
I doubt we'll break today. I mean, the
earnings were still very, very good.
It's just you're seeing some profit
taking on the chart. PayPal collapsing
down today, folks. Why is PayPal
dropping so much? They didn't report
earnings. This is because Stripe and
Advent pulled out of the buyout. So,
remember they had bid something like $50
to buy out PayPal and essentially they
said, "Nope, we don't want it anymore."
And so, the premium, remember PayPal had
ripped higher on this news, that's all
coming back out of the chart. Now, on a
technical analysis basis, there is a
trade here.
Here it is. Pivot point and gap fill,
which happens to be the level where the
news broke that they were interested in
buying PayPal. So, this would be a full
retrace down to that level. If it gets
here today, I will look for a long day
trade on this chart of PayPal, the level
$47.45.
Now, here we are on Gap Gap reporting
good earnings. Interesting, a lot of the
earnings was based on a tariff refund,
but nonetheless, the earnings were good.
But look, it's already into a level that
I annotated earlier. Take a look at
this, guys. Here's an ascending trend
line
and a gap fill. Now, I'm a little
nervous about shorting it here because
it's already hit this level pre-market,
right? So, again, we have our major
resistance here at 25, but we've
already, as we can see from the
intraday, we already touched that level.
Now, intraday, look, it's already
pulling back intraday, but the the
problem is that if it if it hits it
pre-market and there's decent amounts of
volume, which usually happens on a day
when a company reports earnings or or
the next day.
Um
it oftentimes is a hit, which weakens
the level. And so, I'm unsure if I will
take this trade. Earlier in the
pre-market, I was like, "Oh, yes. This
is the level two confer converging trend
line. This is going to be a fantastic
opportunity." Now, I'm a little bit
like, "Okay, it's still okay, but I may
have to look where's the next level."
And so, we'll keep an eye on that. But
again, keep an eye on this $25 level on
gap. Again, it is a confluence of gap
fill and ascending trend line. But
again, if it gets through here, I mean,
this could go as high as 27 and 1/2
before it runs into its next major
resistance. Now, we have AFRM,
Affirm.
Affirm are ripping on earnings today.
Now, if you know anything about Affirm,
what do you know about it? It's buy now,
pay later. And so, while the company's
reporting stellar numbers,
I bring it back to the economics. And I
say, is it a great thing if Affirm is
crushing its earnings numbers
when they're buy now, pay later? And
while that doesn't mean I don't trade
Affirm the way the chart says, of
course, I will always trade based on
charts and data, it does make me wonder
what it says about the consumer if the
consumer is feeling more and more
inclined or in the need to use buy now,
pay later. And I do think that just as
on a macro state, we have to be
monitoring that. That is something that
we want to keep an eye on. All right, so
that's where we are on that. Going to
the daily chart of this, again, gapping
up. It's into a minor resistance around
8660. I will be eyeing this area up here
around 9250
as a potential day trade short. No swing
trades for me on these guys. Again, I'm
only looking to day trade. And also,
just a reminder,
when you have a big speech from Kevin
Warsh at 10:00 a.m., you want to be a
little bit more careful getting in day
trades because the market could be doing
great in your direction from 9:30 to
10:00 and then all of a sudden if Kevin
O'Leary says something or vice versa, it
could be collapsing into 10:00 and it
could flip on a dime and start ripping
the other way. So, just be aware of
that. You know, as a trader, my job is
to always know all of the negatives and
the the risks as well as the rewards. If
you only focus on rewards, you're going
to get caught with your pants down,
right? You know, that's that's the
negative there versus focusing on the
rips
risks. Know every risk that there is.
All right. Let's go into gold. Gold
today, fractional pullback here. Nothing
much going on. Remember, we did hit
resistance up here just a few days ago.
Nothing new to report here, but again,
this does imply potential downside, but
like I said, at 10:00 a.m. we will
likely see a move. I don't know the
direction the move a move on gold as
well as silver. Silver is popping today.
It is into this key resistance zone
right here. I do think it can go as high
as 7150, maybe even 72 on silver, but
again, silver actually had a nice bull
flag here and pushing up. And I think
it's interesting how silver has lagged
gold, right? If you look at the vertical
move on gold, it's much steeper than the
move on silver. So, is it is it silver's
turn to play catch-up? And I don't know
the answer to that, but it certainly
looks like silver is is stronger today
for instance than what gold is doing.
All right. Next up, oil today, minor
downside move. Again, the news broke
this morning that the US may be looking
to take stakes in Venezuela's oil
machine over there. Obviously looking to
tighten ties and and move it away from
you know, the Maduro regime and and get
it more in line with what the US wants
and obviously have the backup of oil to
try to drive prices down. Whether or not
this will play out, we don't know. This
also could be just a political ploy of
releasing some news like this to try to
keep oil down going into the midterms.
And that's always a possibility. I think
anytime you're dealing with elections,
you never know for sure is the news real
news or is it being released for a
reason to influence price on something,
in this case to keep oil from going
higher. Um again, the idea being is if
the US gets involved, then more oil's
going to come out from Venezuela and
eventually oil goes much, much lower
with all that supply coming online. Uh
nat gas yesterday, great pop, hit minor
resistance and came right back in. I as
long as we hold above 283, I remain
bullish on natural gas. And lastly,
Bitcoin here, guys. Bitcoin is coming
down. It continues. I mean, look at how
many times it's hammered on this 80
81,000 dollar level, but again today
coming right back in. And I will just
mention this
one more time.
Is it all comes down to 10:00 a.m.
because if if the right things are said,
gold is going to rip.
Bitcoin rips, maybe silver rips, the
markets rip potentially.
But vice versa, if the wrong thing said,
you could see these things all come in.
So again, 10:00 a.m. I know I've
hammered that in a zillion times, but as
a trader, that is the main factor of the
day. All right, I'm going to get going,
guys. I got to get ready for the market
open and obviously the 10:00 a.m.
speech by Kevin Warsh. Keep an eye on
that and I'll keep you posted. Don't
forget, guys, I will be back at 4:20
today for the weekly wrap-up live.
That's a show right here on
verifiedinvesting.com.
And again, that show I will cover the
Kevin Warsh speech, where the charts
ended, what I'm looking for into next
week, everything at 4:20 p.m. live. Set
your calendars, guys. I'll see you
there. Have a good one. Take care.