Trading The Close | August 31, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys,
welcome back to the markets after the
big Jackson Hole announcement last week
at 10:00 a.m. on Friday when Kevin Warsh
addressed the entire markets and the
investors and really said we're hanging
tight with our 2% inflation goal, which
ended up pushing the yields higher. The
10-year yield continued pushing higher
today. Now, this week we've got jobs
data report that's going to be hitting
the market for data tomorrow. JOLTS
reported 10:00 a.m. Plus, we've got ISM
PMI manufacturing. So, that also, both
of which combined, hit the markets at
10:00
and likely will start guiding us either
increasing those yields. Now, ideally,
if you want a soft landing in a
Goldilocks scenario, you want that JOLTS
number to come in just a little bit
under expectations and you want that ISM
to hold at or around 50. That would be
the Goldilocks scenario. More job
openings, as well as higher prices paid,
would be a risk-off scenario, very
hawkish in the market. watching that at
10:00 a.m. and then we'll be going along
from there. Now, let's recap what
happened today in the markets. First off
with the S&P 500 moving down about 0.3%.
So, not really too much new going on
despite the harsh sell that came in from
Warsh's statements on Friday. Now, we
look here at the volume, guys. This
volume is dismal. Right over the last
week or two, you could see we are
basically trading on the low end of the
tank. Not much market participation. And
that really was I exemplified today on
the 10-minute time frame on the S&P 500.
You can see here, even with the last
hour push higher, this was the first
10-minute candle and price action really
just maintained right around there the
entire day. So, we didn't have much
going on in the markets. There was only
a couple stocks moving big time and
we're going to get into those here in a
few moments, but first off, near-term
support though on the S&P 500 down here
at $760.40.
Upward resistance is going to be before
this inclining trend line that's going
to come right here off this pivot top
over to the next pivot top. Could hit as
early as tomorrow, but with the way the
yields are looking, I don't anticipate
this happening. We're up here at $774.86
near-term resistance on the S&P 500.
Next up with the Qs, actually finished
basically flat. Look at this, in the
green, 0.05% mainly due to the last 10
minutes
uh candles really pushing up nicely on
both the spiders and the Qs, but we see
here really just kind of closing in line
after this little dip that occurred on
the Qs last week. The main thing though
is getting back above Friday's sell
action. So, we'll see if we can do
something like that in the near future
on the Qs, but if we do that, we're
running right into resistance right here
at $723.06.
So, this will prove to be the near-term
test on the chart of the Qs to the
upside. To the downside, we do have gap
fill down here at 706, but I'm mainly
concerned with if and when price
breaches the 695 level. Uh that comes
from the pivot low back here on the
chart from Tuesday, May 19th.
Next up into the semis, guys, and then
as you all know, I love following the
semis as a leading indicator. And guys,
what happened Friday is something all of
you guys can follow because I've tried
to go step-by-step to help you
understand whether we're going to be
bullish near-term with the semi in uh
with the semis or we're going to be a
little bit bearish. In near-term, we've
had little glimpses of hope with the
semis pushing up above, which likely
will push and carry the rest of the
markets with them, but it hasn't
happened yet. So, let's get into the
chart so I can show you. And all you got
to do, guys, is just draw one trend line
on your chart, get that at the high of
the SMH, draw it down to the next major
candle on the chart that occurred here
on June 30th, and extend that all the
way down. And you notice here on
Thursday of last week, we had one candle
closing above not only this declining
trend line, but this larger inclining
parallel channel that dated back to the
April 2025 lows. That was a great
one-day push, but then Friday erased all
of those hopes. We wanted to see a
follow-up push higher with a daily close
above Thursday's candle, and guys, we
did not get that. So, near-term failed
breakout attempt here on the chart of
SMH. That tells me any sort of failed
move tells me we're likely coming down
to the next support, which is going to
be down here at $531.23.
Makes sense when we flip over to the
10-year uh yield chart on the next
chart. We likely are going to be due for
more pressure in the markets,
particularly companies like this that
are uh investing so much in CapEx
spending for AI data center build-outs
with the SMH. So, again, right around
5:30, which again is the uh inclining
parallel channel dating all the way back
here to the liberation daily lows. And
again, just much like drawing this trend
line, guys, anybody can pick out the
parallel tool and draw this a long-term
parallel extending out from pivot to
pivot, and then just extend it all the
way out on the chart, explaining and
showing how price is trying to get
above, yet failing, telling us we're
likely due for more downside movement on
the SMH. And I flip over to the 10-year,
and just like I said, guys, look at this
push on the 10-year yield today. Now,
it's not as drastic as maybe a big news
headline grabber as a move like this
would be as we didn't have consolidation
right underneath this pivot high. This
scenario, guys, this is the highest
close since back in 2025.
You can see back here on the chart.
We're talking January of 2025 is the
last time we had a a close on the daily
chart the 10-year yield this high. Now,
granted as I've said, we've put in
consolidation getting there. So, it's
not necessarily breaking any sort of
records or really alarming folks. But,
guys, I bring it to you here because
this is a change of character. One
candle closing above this consolidation
increases probabilities of another move
higher, which is talking about 4.809%
much like what Warsch described,
potential rate heart hikes on the
horizon to tame this inflation. Now,
guys, we still have data prints coming.
So, it's not anything guaranteed in the
bag, but it is pointing towards this
next pivot at 4.809 and beyond that,
we're looking at 5%. Now, if that's the
case, that's going to bring in a lot of
these other talk
tech plays much like what we were
describing on SMH and provide some
discounted buying opportunities for the
momentum to return back into those
plays. We'll cover some of those charts
in just a few moments, but we definitely
are going to be covering them each step
of the way right here on Trading the
Close. So, make sure you stay tuned.
Now, with the increase in rates, look at
the slip and slide that has occurred on
the chart of gold. You can see that
occurred here on Friday. All the days
before did a fantastic job holding the
support level of $4,575.
Well, now with this huge two-day plunge,
this now is resistance marching back up
on the chart. Notice where price caught
support near term right on top of these
consolidation period and wicks on the
chart. That's how it works. Takes the
stair steps up and when we decline, we
catch support right on these stair
steps. So, great bounce near term
intraday for gold. But, if these rates
continue going higher, gold is likely
still coming in. That's as long as the
war doesn't increase in escalation over
in the Middle East spread out to other
countries, but as long as it's basically
doing what it is now, on-again,
off-again,
um gold won't be the place of safety uh
for that sort of play with the
escalation of war. So, it's more
delicate in following the 10-year uh
yield increases, which in that case can
bring in this next level of support, and
notice this would combine two factors at
$4,333.
That also would correspond with the
bottom of this parallel channel that
price just got back into. So, be mindful
of that in the near future, could be due
for a near-term bounce on gold if we
continue coming down into this $4,333
level.
Uh all right, next up, skipping around
over here on silver. Silver, as you see
here, on uh Friday, big plunge under
this support, but guys, we highlighted
this last week. Whenever price
consolidates on a support level, price
then becomes weakened at that support
level. You want to see price extend away
from that support level so that when
price comes back in, it can provide a
bounce from that area instead of just
hitting it over and over and over again
like on this chart here on silver. It
was a great break above, but didn't get
any further daily closing extending,
leaving it vulnerable for price to pull
back in, catching support much like gold
on top of this previous consolidation.
Next destination for silver, $63.26.
If that breaks, we're talking the 50%
area of the parallel at 58 and 89 cents.
Next up into US oil, continued surging
higher today, up over 3%, testing these
previous pivots back from uh August 21st
as well as August 24th. The guys, we
called this just the other week. This
was a breakout retrace bounce play, and
the breakout occurred from this
declining trend line dated back in April
8th. You could see we had a failed
breakout attempt, another attempt
rejected, another attempt put in
consolidation, secured the breakout with
this move that made the created the
space right here for any sort of
pullbacks to be that buying opportunity
pushing oil up. Now, next challenge, get
above these pivots. You can clearly see
this is another next key level to get
above and if we can clear both,
obviously, likely with some escalation
in the Middle East, we're going to be
coming up here to $96 and $0.44. That's
where it looks like the near-term
destination on this chart is located.
Next up, Nat Gas, also, much like
silver, maintaining above this previous
area of resistance, but it's doing so by
piercing this level, weakening this
area. Uh ultimately, where's price
ending up? It's maintaining above and
confirming above today. I just want to
see some follow-up tomorrow, get above
this wick that occurred back here last
week on Thursday at a high of $3.01,
close above that range, and then I would
have say officially Nat Gas is in
near-term breakout mode. Beautiful what
appears to be nice little cup and handle
pattern, pseudo head inverse head and
shoulders pattern, but a very nice
V-shaped recovery and potential breakout
on the horizon for Nat Gas. Next up into
Bitcoin here, not too much new to report
here in Bitcoin except for it's doing a
good job maintaining the 78 to $80,000
range. I remind you guys where this
resistance comes from. This is a low
pivot dating back in November of 2025,
just string that out horizontally across
your chart, you can see how price
breached that area back here in May of
this year. All we're doing is returning
right back to that scene on this chart,
folks, and catching resistance and
pushing down. Now, near-term analysis,
you can see here we had good
consolidation brewing, had one candle up
above, and then we followed that up with
a big red candle and sideways chop. This
is near-term bearish consolidation. So,
even amongst this consolidation, this
tells me that we're likely going to be
headed lower, at least testing the
$76,116
level soon. If we close underneath that
on the daily time frame, watch out.
Bitcoin would be due then for a
correction likely down here to the 70
$1,000 range, just under $72,000.
All right, next up guys, a couple stocks
winning on the day. First up with Tesla
up 5 and 1/2%. This was on the back of
news that they are expanding their cyber
taxi delivery and in expanding in
further cities too. This is all been
long anticipated. It's been a slow
rollout with these cyber taxis and the
full self-driving capabilities are
getting enhanced, which is why investors
rewarded the stock today putting in a
daily close above this high range. You
could see here from the most recent
price action. We made a pivot high here
on August 21st, then we chopped
sideways, pulled back a little bit. Now
today, breaking from this near-term
consolidation range, telling me folks,
price action is attracted to the top end
range of this declining trend line. This
also happens to be the 50% fib retrace.
Guys, everybody can do this tool. Grab
your Fibonacci retracement tool. Go up
to the top of the chart, the high pivot,
draw that out all the way down to the
most recent low pivot. You can see here
cleanly, $398.11
also corresponds with this declining
trend line. Also corresponds with that
psychological whole round $400
number. That tells me once and if price
gets here on Tesla, likely if with this
current acceleration, we should see a
pullback down here to the 375 range
before attempting to break out and go
higher. But still, looks like X marks
the spot on the chart for Tesla in the
near term, especially with that nice
daily close today.
Uh next up on the chart, Coinbase. Now
Coinbase recently also has had a very
nice breakout, has not yet retraced. As
we see here, we're putting in bullish
consolidation and we're doing so right
in a point of resistance on the chart.
Now, look, today we did put a daily
close once again above this declining
trend line. We did that back on
Thursday, but we didn't follow through
when it with an extended move higher
with any sort of conviction. Watch for
that tomorrow, and Coinbase could be a
secondary breakout on hand with a bull
flag measured move up here at $221.92.
Uh next up on uh to Take-Two Interactive
guys. Now, this stock does make the uh
very much highly anticipated Grand Theft
Auto 6 that is due to be released
November 19th of this year. Now, most
recently, you could see today down 6.67%
pretty decent decline. Now, this was on
the back of news that there was some
leaked uh uh footage of gameplay that
wasn't necessarily uh validated,
thinking that there could be copies or
duplicates of the game, and more or less
just some investor anxiety because this
stock has been bubbling up near the
all-time highs on the anticipation of
this game being released. Heck, this
most recent run was just on the back of
announcements for pre-orders actually
going through and being official. So, a
lot of the move up is already baked in
for Take-Two Interactive for this
upcoming uh big release. However, guys,
I do notice that Take-Two Interactive
has been trading within an inclining
parallel channel. And this game, with it
being as anticipated as it is, it should
be one of the most money-making games in
the history of all video games. So,
likely should take Take-Two Interactive
much higher, but any sort of bad news,
whether it be a delay of the release,
whether it be some malfunction of some
of the gameplay, can send this price on
this chart down to give us a third hit
of this inclining trend line. And this
area just under $200 is also the fib 382
retrace from the bottom of this parallel
channel. So, that tells me this area
could be very interesting, especially if
we see some continued selling going into
the end of the year. Could give us that
opportunity for a bounce and establish
brand new all-time highs on the chart of
Take-Two Interactive. Next up, we've got
Aon on the other side of the spectrum,
too. Much like Take-Two, dropping today,
guys. Dropping 9.53%
decent decline breaking from this failed
attempt to get into the top 50% of this
parallel. Now, if I rewind the clock,
you can see this parallel extends all
the way back here to the lows in 2020.
Now, the one thing that's a little
troubling here for Aon, notice all of
this consolidation that occurred. All of
this bearish consolidation, mainly for
this year, February all the way up until
June. Had that attempt, got rejected.
Now, we find ourselves back in this
consolidation and we're doing so not
that far away from the last time we hit,
considering the previous time we hit was
in 2020. So, this repeated hit in near
time frames tell is telling me Aon is
trying to go lower. If and when we break
this parallel at 315.81,
next stop is at $299 and you know what
could happen at that point. Have a very
nice breakdown, catch support, bounce
and
and retrace to the broken end of that
parallel channel. It's the inverse of
our breakout retrace bounce. It's our
breakdown bounce to the retrace location
of the scene of the crime. That's likely
on the horizon for Aon. Next up and
lastly, guys, Dell going into earnings
tomorrow. Dell has pulled back pretty
decently from its recent highs and most
recently been making these recent highs.
It did close out above a weekly topping
tail. So, right now, Dell is kind of in
no-man's-land, as you see here, trading
right here on the 50% area of the
parallel. A breakdown underneath this
inclining trend line for Dell tomorrow
would not be good near term. As you see,
that would then stack multiple levels of
resistance going back up. First being
this trend line, second being the 50%
area of the parallel, and then third
within eventually be this declining
trend line on the charts. That would
stack three different layers of
resistance. If you're a bull on Dell,
you want to see price get above today's
close after the earnings tomorrow and
start pushing up to retest the all-time
highs. Otherwise, we're going to have a
fight for ourselves on Dell to get back
up and retest those all-time highs.
All right, guys. That wraps up trading
the close. As I said this week, got a
lot of jobs data that's going to be
hitting the markets. Pay attention to
that. Also, pay attention to your Fed
probability watch tool. Currently
sitting at around 66% chance that we are
hiking rates in September and it doesn't
stop there, guys. It looks like we're
also looking for another rate hike later
this year with the current data. We'll
see how that all changes. I'll keep you
up to speed all through this week. Look
forward to seeing you later. Until then,
don't forget to like and subscribe to
the video. Send it out to your friends
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analysis on the charts.
Well, guys, thank you again for watching
and we'll see you next time right here
on the charts. Take care, folks.