Is the Rally Real or a Bull Trap? How to Trade the SPX Midline Retest

Each afternoon, real setups are broken down with entry strategies and the technical reasoning behind every trade. This is today's best trade setups with Verified Investing. Welcome to today's best trade setups. My name is Benjamin Poole, head trader here at Verified Investing, with another exciting episode. So, the SPX is headed into that midline of the parallel channel that I'd mentioned to you guys yesterday. I'm going to go ahead and hide that. So, let's go ahead and jump into the charts. The SPX, here's this up-sloping parallel channel. What we're going to do, or what I've done, I'm going to zoom way out real quick. Connects this pivot top here, secondary hit, third hit, fourth hit, and fifth hit. So, this is the upper end of the parallel channel, and I know I've got additional lines on my charts, but bear with me. Here's the lower end. So, you get this pivot low here, and then this was kind of an outlier on the news of the tariffs, but you notice how price got a little bit of support before the rejection, and then it got it right back to it. It got rejected again, consolidated right on top of the lower end of the parallel channel. So, this gives me further confidence that this is a great um parallel channel, or the lower end of the parallel channel on the SPX. Then what happened? We got a confirmation close below it into a ton of support at 6361, and then all of a sudden we got this bid to the upside. What I was mentioning is the midline of this parallel channel has been respected as support and resistance, as depending on where the price action is coming from. Right now, we're actually above that midline of the parallel channel on the SPX. So, this could signal that the markets want to go up a little bit higher and retest $7,000 on again the SPX. So, this is your next line in the sand. It hasn't gotten a big rejection, so this could be a signal to the bulls that it's time to enter the trade. Could be a bull trap. So, what we're monitoring is what price action does in the next few days. If we can consolidate right on the midline of this parallel channel, then I do anticipate a further roll over at least down to $6,791 and then even a little bit lower. However, this is your line in the sand. Now, as you can see, this was prior resistance or support. Once it got below it, it was slight resistance. And so, this if price action can stay above $6,791, then we're likely to head higher on the SPX SPX. That's just on a technical basis. Excuse me. The USO had a nice fall. So, from this pivot top or the pre-market high at $134.40, it's about an 8 and 1/2% move to the downside on US oil. We did get a little bit support just below this gap in the charts and then this previous gap. So, what I'm looking for is a further move either the upside or downside on the chart of US oil. If we do drop a little bit more, $113.39 is going to be a ton of support on the chart of USO. And this is where I'd go long. Now, that is a significant distance away from the current price at $125. Sometimes oil can move um especially lately can move pretty rapidly. So, I'm going to have this on my radar for today. If those of you who are a little bit more aggressive want to interest enter at about $118.98, that is the low end of this green bar candle. Uh so, this is basically the gap window on the chart of USO. Could get a pretty significant bounce. Now, on the upside, if we do get a push higher, you're going to get a little bit of resistance at $129.83. I'm not looking to short it there. I would actually wait for this red bar candle high right here about $133.34, knowing that I've got additional resistance at the premarket high from yesterday at $134.40. So, again, excuse me. That's my level on the USO chart. My last add level would be $137.99. So, that doesn't seem like it's going to be getting up into that level today, but you never know. SanDisk, look at this move on SanDisk. I did mention yesterday that I thought that the max upside on SNDK was going to be about uh $925.03. And I was mentioning that that was a great opportunity to enter a swing trade or a excuse me, a day trade. Then what happened is you had this short covering and this massive entry into the uh into SanDisk because it's getting added to the S&P No, the uh NASDAQ 100. If we can get a continued bid to the upside and we can recapture the all-time high from um 2 days ago, get up above $960, then you could start targeting the $1,000 whole round number. If we fail to do that, because SanDisk overall is overextended on the daily timeframe, intraday, weekly, it doesn't really matter. SNDK is way overextended. So, it is due for a pullback. So, what we're looking at is on the chart of SanDisk, excuse me. We needed to recapture this red bar candle right here to the downside at $874.24. And then all of a sudden we can get to this gap window right here at $866.49. Once that gets filled, then you're coming down to this gap in the charts at $780.72. This is where I would start picking uh SanDisk up for a a day trade today. I don't necessarily think it's going there today, but if it does drop into that level in the next few days. $780 $780.12 is where I'd be looking to trade it. Knowing I've got additional support at 74877 and then ultimately $710.50 is where I'm looking to maybe swing trade it for a little bit of a bounce on SNDK. Now on the short side today, what I'd be looking for is this red bar candle right here about 300 or $964.18. I would look to start playing that for an initial entry price. That would just basically be Sandisk getting back to break even on Sandisk. That is very likely to happen if price action gets a bit to the upside. That's about a 6 and 1/2% move. Knowing I could dollar cost average every $10 higher all the way up into that $1,000 whole round number. Let's go ahead and jump into the chart of Nvidia. Nvidia is getting up into a nice shortable level. The first level that I have is the upper end of this red bar candle right here. This is going to be some resistance at $194.27 and then you have a little bit of resistance above it at $195.56 and that is a gap in the charts. So you should get a pretty solid resistance or rejection off of that level. What we want to do is all these buyers who are going to be exiting the trade after this move to the downside, they we would like to jump on this trade with them and drive the price a little bit lower. Bloom Energy is having a huge surge to the upside. BE had some positive news with on the back of Oracle. It is going to I think supply So cited expansion Oracle partnership said 100 megawatt could yield $200 million in revenue. So partnered with Oracle, which is one of the reasons that it's getting a bit to the upside. I did have this up swinging trendline as resistance at $197.71. As you can see, we are above that level right now. So, for me, what I would like to see is price to get above this up sloping trend line and stay above and close. This usually does a pretty good job of signaling to the bulls that it's time to jump on board, and that is usually what marks the top. And then all of a sudden, we can have the sellers come in and emerge and really drive this down, recapture the upper area recapture this up sloping trend line to the downside. So, what I'm looking for is a a close above this up sloping trend line. And then as long as we don't make a continuation move and close above about $220, then we're likely to roll back below this up sloping trend line. And then if we can re-attack this $197.71 level, then we're coming back into $176.74. This could be the sell the news event that Bloom Energy is looking for. So, all these profit takers can exit this trade at the highs. QBTS is having a nice move to the upside. Here's a down sloping trend line. Here's a third hit. First hit here, secondary hit here, third hit here. It's into a ton of resistance on QBTS. So, what I'm looking at is this basic this resistance level at $17.18. If we can start pushing above that, getting above this down sloping trend line, then we could start seeing a move up to $20.56. However, this is the third hit of this down sloping trend line, which actually favors a pullback. I still like this level at $13.11 if we can get a pullback on QBTS. So, this is what I'd be looking for as far as an entry price goes. Again, with a retrace if we can get one. IGV is pushing up. Actually, it's getting a little bit of a sell-off after this nice uh wide range green bar candle that pushed up the price action of E uh the IGV up. So, here's what we're monitoring, this down sloping trend line. First hit, second hit, third hit, fourth hit. And now all of a sudden, we hit it for again, and now we've done what's considered the river theory, or basically jumped above resistance. So, on a technical basis, we are broken this down sloping trend line. So, those of you who are aggressive, you could play this on a lot at a long at this gap in the charts about $78.71. And then if it does close back inside of this down sloping trend line, then it would have recaptured it and signal to the bears that they're still in charge and could drive this lower. I do think that that we are going to have a nice substantial bid from the chart of IGV as long as we can maintain price action above this down sloping trend line, then I think a lot of these tech software stocks are going to rip to the upside. IONQ broke this down sloping trend line. Finally can Possibly it's going to confirm today. That doesn't necessarily signal that I'm going to be interested in buying. What I'm likely to do is wait for a retrace all the way back down to $25.92, and then reenter this on a swing trade basis. You could wait till it pierces $30. And from this current price, that's actually a decent 15% move to the downside. So, if you're waiting for If you're a little bit more aggressive, $29.83 is a gap in the charts that you'd be looking for. On a swing I mean, on a day trade basis, you do have this minor gap in the charts. So, if it does push up a little bit higher, this could be a good entry price for a day trade. $38.36. It's a little too aggressive for me. However, you've got only not only this gap in the charts, but you got this low pivot. So, you should get a pretty solid resistance or a rejection off of the level on IONQ. Let's go ahead and jump into Microsoft. Let's go ahead and zoom out a little bit. Has finally broken. Today could confirm this broken down downtrend. So, if it does confirm, I would look for a retrace down to $366.82. That is where I would enter the trade for a swing. On a day trade, if we do push up a little bit higher and get into this gap, right about $400, even though it is beaten up in the in the charts, that is could be a pretty substantial rejection area on Microsoft for a day trade. It's a little too aggressive for me, but I know some of you guys like gaps in the charts, and so that's what I would be eyeing for the chart of Microsoft. Okay? Bitcoin had this nice surge to the upside. I was mentioning couple different times this down-sloping trendline on Bitcoin. Pivot up here, secondary hit, third hit. Look at the rejection. This is what I like to see. It got rejected, and then finally pushed above. Haven't confirmed above this down-sloping trendline on Bitcoin. If we can do that, a confirmation would be any close above $75,000, uh as long as it doesn't recapture the down-sloping trendline to the lower end. Right now, again, a confirmation would push my target up to $80,566. That's where I ultimately think Bitcoin's going to establish its first resistance, or at least get to the first resistance. And then, could once it does break that level, could head up to this up-sloping trendline around $90,000 on the chart of Bitcoin. STX was trading above this up-sloping trendline. Here, let me zoom out for you. Show you where I'm seeing this. You've got this chart that goes back from January 2025. Here's another secondary hit, third hit, fourth hit. Excuse me. Here's the fourth hit, or fifth hit of this up-sloping trendline. So, for me, SCX is getting into a nice shortable level for a swing trade. And if it does break above 500 $524.17, then your next level of resistance going to be $550.44. NBIS is actually into a great resistance area right now. Connect this pivot top right here from the highs of November 2021. Got a secondary hit right here. Here's the third hit after this extended move from the downside. It was down just from the 30th of March 2020 uh five, excuse me, 2026, 83% move to the upside. So, NBIS is obviously way overextended and it's due for a pullback. So, this is the first area of resistance as far as an entry price for a swing trade. If it does bush push up a little bit more, you could add to the position around $170. But, this is looking a really, really prime for a swing trade again on NBIS. So, thank you for bearing with me. I know I've got a lot of stuff going on in the uh in the charts uh as well as what's going on in my voice and I'm on the coughing and stuff. So, thanks for bearing with me. Hopefully, you guys can get some really good information out of what I have um for you guys. And Lobo uh Tigre, I'm going to go ahead and put this on here. Verified Investing Extras. This is a new show that we have. Please go ahead and scan that QR code. Liz does a great job on this interview, and we want you guys to get all the benefit you guys can out of it. So, scan that QR code, go ahead and watch that video um from uh Lobo Tigre. He's got some great insights on oil and a couple other things as well. So, you don't want to miss that. If you guys are getting something out of this, um please make sure you're liking, following, subscribing, and sharing with those friends so that way they can get the same market information you're getting. You guys have a great rest of your day and again, thanks for bearing with me. Appreciate you guys. You guys rock. Take care.