My Trading Game Plan | August 31, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hypes and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same [music]
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
All right, so we start out the morning
with the news out of the Middle East,
the US striking some rocket launchers,
the Iranians responding. This is the
first military action in basically over
a month. So it does escalate things a
little bit. In other words, oil is
pushing up this morning. We'll take a
look at that in just 1 second. Right
now, futures are lower on that news as
again, higher oil, what does it mean? It
means rates probably go up because
inflation expectations are rising and we
know that the markets do not like higher
rates. It's making them very, very
concerned as well as we know that the
administration is concerned by their
attempts to essentially throttle the
yield curve. Yield curve control known
by again, the announcement a couple
weeks ago that they would be upping
their buys on the long end of the bond
market side. All right, so that's where
we are this morning. Markets again under
some pressure with oil moving to the
upside. Let's jump right into the S&P
futures and take a look. So here's the
S&P futures down about uh just under or
a quarter of well, I would say about a
third of a percent lower today. And
again, you can see Friday we had a
pretty significant rollover occurring
here as we kind of came into the second
half of the day and this was all on the
back of Kevin Warsh and his commentary
and statements on where he sees rates
going and ultimately his views on the
economy and inflation. And what we know
from that is he was more hawkish. He did
come out and say, "Hey, we're going to
get control of prices. We're going to
bring prices down." He said all the
correct things to essentially signal the
Fed is trying to maintain control. The
question is does he actually mean that?
Right now, the Fed watch tool is pricing
in a rate hike on September 16th to the
tune of over 60%. So again, the chance
of a rate hike in September now favored
by about two two-thirds of a a factor.
Okay. So a couple other things here
going on as the futures are moving
lower. Flipping over to crude oil, crude
oil up almost 3% on the day. But believe
it or not, the charts have not broken
out according to my trend lines. And
what I mean by that is very simply, we
can see here that we have our high
pivot, high pivot, and high pivot,
another high pivot, and so on and so
forth. And while oil is testing the line
here, look at how we were up more and we
are already starting to pull back. And
again, what this tells us is this is
what we would call a wedge pattern. You
have an ascending trend line and a
descending trend line. The ascending
trend line here
marked by our pivot from January to our
low pivot in July. And essentially price
is being kept, at least for now, under
or at resistance. So this is something
I'm watching very closely and it really
is significant because it has a lot to
do with where rates will ultimately go
in the near term. All right, long-term
rates probably, if the economy weakens,
they'll come in a little bit, but
there's a new higher normal on rates now
from where we were during COVID and just
after COVID. So again, oil is impactful
because a higher oil price eventually
gets passed along to the consumer, not
just through gas prices, but also
through the the supply chain, right?
Companies have to use oil to make
products or to to burn and make energy,
and therefore that higher cost
eventually gets passed along. If you
have higher inflation, interest rates
have to go up to try to compensate for
that and bring it under wraps. All
right, so oil again, one of the key
headlines this morning that I am keeping
a very close eye on right at this $86 a
barrel level. Again, a close above, I'd
look for confirmation. If we confirm,
then you start talking about a bigger
breakout on oil. If it doesn't confirm,
then it goes along the path that I've
been kind of subscribed to, which is
until the midterms at least, oil
probably chops around in this $85 to $75
range. After the midterms, again, I
think all bets are off if no deal is
reached. We could see re-escalation in
major ways on the military front. All
right, let's go back to the S&P 500
daily chart. Right now, I'm following
two trend lines here. We have our trend
line essentially low pivot here, kissed
it here and here. That gives us our base
plate. This is that upper part of the
parallel. And then ultimately, we have
our other trend lines that go back to
our highs from 2024,
multiple hits on this trend line.
And then we could see re-attacks it
right here, and each time it fails. All
right, so again, we have essentially a
megaphone. A megaphone, by the way, the
only key to the megaphone pattern. So,
you have a a wedge pattern, which is
essentially a triangle. It's it's two
trend lines that are getting closer
together. And then a megaphone is just
two patterns that are or two trend lines
that are moving away from each other.
They're both resistance and support
lines. It's just basically what they're
called based on their pattern formation.
Now, what does this tell us? Well, it
continues to tell us that as of now,
we're off of resistance up here, but
well off of support down here. And so,
it tells us that the market, while it
continues to have a general trend of
upside, right? I mean, we can see the
markets are generally moving higher, it
is keeping the market somewhat anchored
between these two trend lines for the
time being. Now, for me as a technician,
what I care about is number one, the
trend is your friend until the end, of
course, but that's telling us neutral to
upside bias. Okay, easy enough. But,
what we're really looking for is when
this breaks. At one point, one of these
trend lines will break. It'll either be
to the downside or the upside. If the
upside breaks, we should go right up to
about 8,200 on the S&P 500. If we break
in the next few weeks to month, I think
we could be at 8,200 easily by the end
of the year. If the downside one breaks,
that's the bigger concern. That's where
I would start to say, "Okay, we could be
closer to a major 20% correction." But,
I will say this, with all the negatives
you have, Kevin Warsh, yields, all of
the other factors,
markets are still staying resilient. We
are still just a little bit off the
all-time highs. So, we have to say,
"Okay, the trend still is up." And right
now, the resiliency is giving us that
neutral to positive bias. It doesn't
mean that the markets won't have a down
day, but again, sideways to slight
upside chop is where we're looking at
this point. Okay? So, that's what we
have on the S&P 500 chart. As we move on
to the US dollar, the dollar had that
big surge up on Friday on the back of
Kevin Warsh's speech that was more
hawkish. Uh today, we are seeing a small
pullback in the dollar. Now, again,
remember the pattern formation. We have
a ups ascending trend line right here,
right? We came down into it. It held. It
held, and then it broke. This, as of
now, is a retrace to the scene of the
crime. It was support here, right? So,
when you come down into support, you
look for those vertical moves off of it.
All right. When you get a bear flag,
notice how this move was not vertical.
It was basically hugging the line or
weakening the line. Imagine just keep
hammering like a woodpecker on that
line. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And
eventually, it breaks. And what happens
is this trend line then becomes major
resistance. So, major support, once
broken, becomes technical resistance.
What does that mean? It means that in
general, even if we go up to this line,
we should see rejection, and the dollar
should continue to fall. So, overall,
good bounce on the dollar. Again, this
does poke holes on a technical analysis
basis on Kevin Warsh being really
hawkish. And what I mean by that is
right now, he's talking a tough game,
but does he actually come through? And
the dollar, my friends, is telling us
that at least big money that deals in
the Forex market and the bond market is
not necessarily buying that he is
serious about raising rates. We're going
to find out because again, like I said,
the Fed Watch Tool is pricing in about a
60-plus percent chance that the Fed does
hike in September, but don't forget, the
jobs number is on Friday. And that could
be the one data point before the meeting
where if it's just a little bit weaker,
I don't even think it has to be very,
very weak, just a little weaker, and all
of a sudden, that rate hike chance drops
dramatically. All right. Next up, the
10-year yield. This is pretty stunning,
guys. The 10-year yield now is making a
new 52-week high this morning, trading
above 4.7%.
Here was the last time we were higher,
which was in January of 2025.
And then prior to that, we hit a high at
5%
in October of 2023. So again, if we can
take out this level at 4.8%,
we should easily head back to 5%. That
would be a caveat. Like if you ask me
what I think the biggest concern for the
markets would be, it would be if rates
start pushing back to 5%. At some point,
rates at high levels will break the
stock market. You can have all the great
earnings that we've had, you can have
the capex spending by these these
hyperscalers and these AI plays that's
just been absolutely enormous. But if
rates keep going up, eventually it
breaks something. Now again, you could
argue that breaking something is
actually a good thing because it causes
a fix. It essentially cuts out the
cancer in the system. That's kind of how
I view it. But at the same time, it does
mean pain for the stock market and
possibly the economy. So again, you have
to look at it to see which way you
believe. But ultimately, what I know is
that eventually something will break.
Even if it's not in the near term, you
can't inject drugs indefinitely without
killing the patient. That's just the
nature of the beast. All right. Couple
stocks in motion today. PC, Pacific Gas
and Electric here. PCG is getting
trounced along with EIX. These are both
uh utilities out of California. And
really what's going on here is that new
legislation was passed that essentially
they can't pass on rate hikes as much as
they want. And also that, you know,
people that have problems, like their
house burns down, the payouts have to be
made sooner. And so essentially, more
restrictions on utilities that
essentially will hamper their their
profitability. A lot of this is
stemming, in my opinion, from basically
data centers, right? So, data centers
driving up utility costs, and you're
starting to see California enact
legislation to keep these electric
companies from passing those rate hikes
just continually on to the consumer.
Now, again, maybe that's a good thing.
It's more backlash against the data
centers and what it's doing to consumers
and forcing up costs and inflation,
right? But again, it is trouncing these
stock prices today. Now, as a trader,
I'm very intrigued by this. I say,
"Okay, well, I mean, Friday you could
already see someone knew something here,
right?" Big drop, today massive drop.
But look, we're coming up into a
technical level at $13.
So, there might be a day trade here.
Now, as a swing trade, do I like it? I
don't know. But by the way, look at
this.
Great level here.
So, this will be an interesting level at
13. Now, if it gets through 13, it could
go as low as about 12.50 before it finds
its next technical level. But I will be
monitoring this in the live day trading
room, no doubt about it, as a potential
setup for a day trade. Now, on a swing
trade basis, I think you got at least
for me, and I can only speak for myself,
I've got to let the dust settle. I got
to see where this all pans out. Like,
what type of impact does it have on
these companies? But certainly as a day
trade, I may be in there today playing
around. You can see EIX Edison
International, big drop as well this
morning in the premarket. We have to
zoom out to see, and you can see I have
old lines here as well. But we're
trading down in this range. I would
start getting maybe interested. There's
a little bit of a gap fill pivot around
55.76 or so, right here. And then really
we could go as low as 52, um down here.
So, I'm not sure if I'll trade this
first one. Price is so close, I'd be
worried it's going to flush it. But once
we get down to around 52, I do think
there's a fair amount of support as low
as 48 down here at a double bottom.
All right. So, again, something to keep
an eye on. Those utility companies
absolutely getting smashed. Um let's
turn our attention to Nvidia now.
Nvidia, what's interesting here is
remember it had good earnings, the stock
had a great run, and then this day on
Friday was not what the bulls wanted to
see. Essentially, it gave back a
majority of those gains. Today, it's
trading up fractionally, but again, for
as good as those earnings were and the
backlog and the, you know, the
projections, what does this tell us that
it gave back so much of those gains?
Now, on a macro sense, what it tells us
is that the markets are still very
concerned about this circular financing,
right? Nvidia gives a company $2
million, that company then turns around
and says, "Hey, we'll buy $2 million in
chips." And so, again,
yes, the earnings were great, but the
market is telling you they don't
necessarily believe that the
projections, the guidance, will be fully
what it actually is projected to be by
the company because they're saying that
some of these companies won't come
through. Some of these deals will fall
apart. Now, again, we'll have to watch
and see, but it is a fascinating thing.
Now, on a technical basis, I have two
major trend lines. Ascending, if we ever
get up here, I short. If we get down
here, you can buy it as long as it it's
a major, you keep your stop right
underneath cuz if it breaks, and we know
ups
uh d or ascending trend lines tend to
break eventually on multiple hits, then
you have to be a little bit more
concerned. So, again, you could buy this
level, but but for me, I would keep a
very tight stop underneath within a
couple dollars. If it breaks, it's
probably going to start a bigger move to
the downside, maybe filling this gap,
maybe touching this gap fill and pivot
low uh down significantly. All right.
Gold. Gold today down slightly. We had
that great corrective move. Again, I
mentioned late last week and all of last
week that I was looking into and I was
shorting the gold miners. That got paid
out on Friday, which was really nice to
see. So, again, good job there. Now,
gold coming back in. Gold actually hit
support though. So, this is interesting
here. At least it's an interim level of
support. This sideways consolidation,
look at this, right through there, all
of this sideways chop, price comes back
in. So, this is your first test as a
bull at 4,400. Can price hold? As of
now, it is, but that's your level. If
this breaks, you'll have a little
secondary support at 4,330. If that
breaks, we start heading back to 4,150
or so. But again, right now, gold great
pullback. Notice the ascending trend
line. Perfect hit of that, which is what
I told you guys last week to expect. We
got our pullback. First technical
support has been hit. Silver, this was
my resistance zone right up here. We
were bubbling up against it Friday. We
popped and then we dropped. Small bounce
today on silver there. We already looked
at oil. We'll check back in on US oil
here, but oil, look at that, it's still
pulling back, guys. Isn't that amazing
how the trend line works? So, again, a
lot of people thinking it's breaking
here. It's going to have a big move up.
The chart's saying, "Uh-uh, not so
fast." And it's pulling it back. Now,
we'll have to see where it ends the day,
but it is just since we looked at it
earlier on, it's already down more than
where it was then. Natural gas holding
up here. Uh natural gas, I honestly am
getting more and more bullish on.
Um the natural gas chart has broken
above the line that I've been watching.
It's consolidating, starting to make a
bull flag. I'm going to watch to see if
this has a more significant move to the
upside, but I will say that I do like
natural gas's chart here going forward.
And we're also getting into that time of
year, seasonality, when again things
start to cool down, the gas starts to be
used for heating more and more. Lastly,
Bitcoin, Bitcoin again, basically
flattish here on the day ever since the
reversal on Friday, Sat- Saturday,
Sunday, and so far on Monday, basically
just sideways consolidation. Now, the
fear here, what you're watching is you
had a reversal candle right here, right?
The big red, we'll call it big red.
Here's the beginnings of potentially a
bear flag. So, it's only a preliminary
structure,
but what we want to follow is do we
start to see this go more sideways and
then does it start to roll over? If it
rolls over, I'm going to eye 67,000
as a huge buying opportunity. That would
be a retrace to a big pivot point where
when you broke out, this is really when
the momentum got crazy, right? Broke out
above this high and this high, and then
it just ripped. So, the idea is if it
comes back in there, that would be a
bounce candidate on the crypto Bitcoin.
All right. So, again, guys,
Iran, the US escalating. This week, the
jobs data is going to be key. I'm
focusing on rates, interest rates, the
10-year, the 30-year, uh as well as the
dollar. For trading purposes, day
trading, I'm focusing in on PCG and EIX
here early in the day. I'm also keeping
an eye on Nvidia as Nvidia continues to
kind of act a little strange considering
how golden those earnings and guidance
were. You guys have a great rest of your
day. Thanks for joining me as always on
this Monday morning. Stay tuned. We have
lots more shows throughout the day with
technical analysis, trades, and setups.
Take care.