The Weekly Wrap-up | September 4, 2026

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that count, wrapped up
with clarity and precision. This is
weekly [music] wrap up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey everybody, welcome to this Friday
edition of the weekly wrap up. My name
is Gareth Soloway, chief market
strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, the market started the day here, and
this was interesting, folks. We started
the day with the nonfarm payrolls
number. Now, the nonfarm payrolls number
came in surprisingly strong. Let's take
a look at that data point right here.
162,000
jobs gained. That beat estimates by
109,000
jobs. In addition, instead of revising
the previous months down, we actually
saw revisions to the upside. So, all of
this, you'd say, "Oh, this is great for
the markets, right? This is great. It's
showing strength in the economy." It
actually caused a sell-off. Why? Because
the stronger the economy, the more
likely the Fed has to raise rates at
their September 16th meeting. So, that's
the essence of it. It anything that's
going to put pressure to the upside on
rates is going to ultimately cause the
markets to sell off. It also causes gold
and silver and Bitcoin to sell off in
the near term. So, that's where we are
right now. Again, jobs data strong. That
did create a sell-off in the market with
the S&P 500 dropping about 4/10 of 1%.
Now, I still remain bullish on the S&P
500 because we remain on a technical
basis above a key threshold, which again
signals neutral to upside bias for the
coming weeks in the market. All right.
Now, there was one other thing that kind
of was a little concerning to markets
today, and that was a rage tweet or rage
Truth Social post by the president
demanding that the Federal Reserve lower
rates at their next meeting, threatening
to cancel trade contracts with any
country where we don't have a surplus in
the deal. All right, so essentially, the
president putting pressure on the
Federal Reserve to lower rates. And
again, get get this straight. It's not
about whether or not rates are held
sideways with no hike. He actually is
pushing for a rate cut. Now, to me, this
is probably a negotiating tactic. He's
putting pressure to cut rates, hoping
that the Fed will at least keep rates
neutral and not hike them in the
September meeting. But nonetheless, it
did unnerve the markets today. I think
in general, you know, anytime you have
attacks on the Federal Reserve while
they're trying to manage inflation, and
obviously what else is going on in the
economy, it does make investors a little
bit wary, uh essentially considering we
have all the debt issues and everything
else out there via the US government.
All right, so that's where we are right
now, folks, as we continue. Let's take a
look at the S&P 500. Jumping into the
S&P 500, notice again, we pulled back
today by about 4/10 of a percent. Not a
big drop, but nonetheless, going into a
3-day weekend, a little bit of downside
action. That comes on the back of a
solid multi-day push to the upside on
the S&P 500. Remember, this is my trend
line. As long as we stay above this, I
remain bullish on the S&P 500. And if we
did break this white trend line, which
is around 7570 or so on the S&P, then I
would move to a neutral stance on the
market. This is the neutral zone right
here. If we break below here, that's
where I would expect a much bigger
sell-off in the markets to the downside.
All right, so keeping an eye on that, I
will keep you guys posted. But right
now, we're so solidly above the bullish
trend line, which remains to me to be
net bullish on the markets into next
week. The dollar today did pull back
slightly, not a or excuse me, got to
bounce slightly today. Overall, we had
two massive downside moves and then
obviously any threat of the Fed raising
rates or any upping of probabilities of
the Fed raising rates is going to put
pressure on the dollar to the upside,
but really it was a minimal bounce. And
I would strongly encourage investors out
there watching to understand the bigger
macro pattern here. The bigger macro
pattern, you have a trend line here and
we did absolutely break to the downside.
We retraced and now again, as long as we
remain below this trend line, the
pressure to the downside on the dollar
is the main focus. And I would say that
bounces on the dollar, you should expect
in general for the dollar to go lower
and that generally implies that the Fed
may do nothing in their next meeting.
And I think that's the key here, folks.
I know the Fed is jawboning about being
hawkish and you know, every time Kevin
Warsh comes out, he speaks hawkishly,
but I almost wonder if he's doing that
to make the markets
kind of anticipate and do the have the
markets essentially do the work for the
Federal Reserve. Cuz he's walking this
this tight line, this tight rope.
Essentially, he knows the president
appointed someone who the president said
should not raise rates and should in
fact lower rates, but then he also has
these issues of inflation and other
factors to deal with. And so he's
talking a tough game, but we have yet to
see him act on it. And I would not be
surprised if the Fed just ends up
staying pat, no raise at the September
16th meeting. Now,
the big factor to watch next week, and
this is the one that's going to matter.
It's either going to ice a rate hike,
meaning we're going to get one in
September or we're not. And that is the
CPI and PPI data. Those are both the
inflation numbers, consumer price index,
producer price index. Those will be
reported next week. If those are
somewhat tame, it opens the door for the
Fed to not hike rates. And obviously,
again, the president pushing for a rate
cut, that's not going to happen. The Fed
would lose all credibility if they went
that way. But, if the pressure is put on
from the president and the Fed has an
opening to do nothing, I would certainly
expect the Fed to do just that. All
right? So, again, just my two cents on
what we see going on. Let's take a look
at the 10-year yield. The 10-year yield
still remains below this threshold right
here. We'll keep an eye on this. Again,
as long as we stay below this double top
or at this double top, the anticipation
would be, based on technical analysis,
that we should assume a pullback in
yields is likely. That would also go
towards a more muted inflation number
next week and potentially no hike by the
Fed at their September 16th meeting.
Okay? Uh big movers today, Tesla
reversing yesterday's move up.
Basically, what happened here. So,
yesterday, Elon was out talking a great
game about everything that's amazing
going on with SpaceX and Tesla. But then
today, the regulatory body that oversees
robo-taxis came out and said, "These
robo-taxis by Tesla may not work well or
they may not pass regulatory thresholds
because they don't have a steering
wheel." All right? So, again, whether
you endorse that or not, it doesn't
really matter. It did put pressure on
Tesla stock today, which had had a great
run to the upside yesterday, but
reversed a majority of that move, in
fact, all of that move and then some
today. And you can see, again, this was
yesterday, great pop yesterday, but
today right back down and coming back
in. Now, Tesla is still short-term in an
uptrend, but nonetheless we are in this
bigger parallel channel. And again, like
I told you guys in the game plan, any
sort of move down here, I buy Tesla. Any
sort of move into here, I short it. Why?
Well, simply because that's what the
chart has told us to do. Every time
we've come to the downside, it's been a
great mover to the upside. When we hit
the upside, it's have been a great short
to the downside. Buy it there, sell it
there, pull back, sell it again, sell it
again, all the way down and right there.
And so, I strongly encourage us as
investors to use the data to our
advantage, right? So, you know, if this
is what it shows, and listen, it's not
to say that it can at some point break
above the line or below, but that's what
stops are for, right? That's why you
have a tight stop. And if it breaks it,
you stop out, take the small loss, but
look at the size of these gains that
Tesla had has given if we played these
trend lines both as a buy and a
shortable opportunity. It's a credit
incredible range-bound trading on Tesla.
All right.
Next up, Apple falling today, has had a
good move up. I was hoping Apple would
fill this gap cuz I was ready to do a
swing short on it. Never got there with
a nice little dip today. And again,
granted, we are in this kind of light
volume atmosphere, so be more
interesting next week when the big
institutional money comes back from the
Hamptons and they're relaxing for the
3-day weekend. Generally, they take
August off in the Hamptons and then they
come back to work and the institutional
volume comes back to the market in
September. So, that's what I'm looking
forward to. I look for that as a
indicator of really where the markets
are going to go, and I'll be watching
next week if we continue to see a rally
or if we continue to see some downside
action. Gold today, little bit of a
pullback on the back of higher yields.
Again, that's just the nature of what's
been going on. On a technical basis,
again, gold hit resistance here at just
under six 4,700, then fell to technical
support, and then got a bounce. At this
point, like I said in the game plan this
morning, there is no good indicator.
We're kind of in no man's land here. So,
I do not have a short or long on a swing
trade basis on gold. Same thing with
silver. We hit resistance, we pulled
back to technical support right here.
You can see again, beautiful little
support line with this underbelly here.
In fact, you can stretch it out and
look, it actually goes in fact, it keeps
going. I mean, all the way over here,
this low, then we broke below, then it
became resistance, rejected price, then
we broke back above, and it became
support again. And again, that tells us
this is a very pivotal bias trend line.
In other words, above it, you generally
give it the benefit of the doubt, but if
it breaks below, it could dump very
sharply all the way back down towards
that yellow trend line. All right. Oil
today, flattish to negative. Really
again, early in the day, oil was down
much, much more, but as we crept towards
this 3-day weekend, where there's the
worry that things could escalate and the
markets will be closed, the oil trade
will be closed until basically until
Monday night, right? Maybe Sunday, but
really most of us will be trading again
starting on Tuesday.
The idea here is that people were very
cautious. You people didn't want to go
in short on oil into the weekend, the
long weekend at that. And really, you
had some buying assuming there would be
something escalatory in the oil price.
Now, I'm actually in the camp that oil
is likely going to go down here in the
near term. The idea here is we hit
short-term resistance, and now we need
to retrace to this trend line. So, let's
watch next week if we get a pullback
into this $83 to $84 per barrel level.
Natural gas remains above its pivot
line, so I remain bullish on this.
Though it did have a small gain today,
yesterday pulled back on inventories,
but I would continue to expect an upward
trajectory on natural gas, especially as
we head into the cooler months of the
year and seasonality starts to take
hold. Bitcoin, taking a look here at
Bitcoin, we have a little bit of a
pullback today. Bitcoin remains strongly
into resistance right here. All right,
so again, you have the yellow zone as
well as the white ascending trend line.
And again, right off of that. Now, I
will say something about Bitcoin. It is
staying strong. So, even though you had
a pullback today, the move yesterday was
tremendous.
If it can break above 82,000, this
likely has 90 plus thousand written all
over it. So, I'm watching it like a hawk
here. I wouldn't call myself an all-out
bull at this point. In fact, I'm still a
skeptic until we break this level, just
like with any of these other charts. We
have to respect the level until proven
otherwise. But nonetheless, I am
impressed that we had a few pullback
days earlier this week and then that big
surge yesterday showed relative
strength. A lot of buyers came in even
in spite of the pullback today, it's
still hovering right underneath that
level. Now,
we talked about what to look forward to
next week. CPI, PPI data. That will be
the determining factor and likely the
driving force behind where the markets
go based on rate cut or my I shouldn't
say cut, rate stationary or, you know,
raising rates when the Federal Reserve
meets a couple weeks from now. The other
thing to watch going into next week that
will be pivotal is where does oil go? If
oil continues to push, let's say north
of 95 to $100 a barrel, there's no doubt
that that will not only put pressure on
rates to the upside, but also stress out
a consumer that continues to be in
struggle mode. So, watch oil and rates
next week. CPI is of the utmost
importance and I believe that's on
Wednesday morning we'll get that data
out. Lastly, I want to mention, folks,
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going to bid you farewell. Go have a
wonderful 3-day weekend. I'll be back on
Tuesday with the game plan at 9:00 a.m.
Eastern time. Have a great one, guys.
Talk to you soon. Take care.