Markets Rally on Fed Signal: CPI Next Big Test Ahead!

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys
today we saw across the board buyers
return to the market. Decent volume
doubling the volume of the spiders
nearly from yesterday. So nice
participation helping to accelerate the
move up. Now the reason happened for a
couple different scenarios. One, the
10-year yield was falling. That was on
the back of news of Fed Governor
Christopher Waller reporting today that
he was interested in keeping those rates
steady at the upcoming FOMC announcement
as long as inflation shows progress with
the next upcoming report. And when's
that report folks? That's going to come
next Friday with the CPI data report. So
the Fed is going to be keenly watching
that report for if there's going to be a
potential rate hike opportunity in
September the following week. So guys,
what does that mean for us now? Well,
today the Fed Watch Tool reduced all the
way down to a 50/50% chance whether
they're going to hike or keep rates the
same. So big money jumped right back
into the markets. Let's get into these
charts, check out what levels price
action went to and we covered this in
the previous shows of Trading the Close.
First off with the S&P 500 with the SPY.
Where did we go today guys? Now yes,
beautiful gap up and then move higher
and then we hit the brakes right on this
declining trend line backing up
yesterday's with technical analysis in
the show. A simple trend line anybody
can draw on their chart. Pivot high,
pivot high, brakes put on on price
action. You can see on the 10-minute
chart the majority of the gains all took
place before 11:30 this morning. You can
see first candle out the gate jumped up
and rallied. Profit taking really
chopped sideways until 10:50, then we
rallied up to 11:20 and then really just
chopped sideways to the end of the day
and you can see here tagging that trend
line and consolidating right on that
trend line before fading towards the end
of the day after hours pulling down just
slightly uh a little bit further. So,
what we can say is this the markets have
done what they've just done. They had 3
days down and then we initially in
essence just had in essence 3 days
bouncing back up right into resistance.
So, everything's going to be hanging
tomorrow morning on the jobs report. I
know it's not an inflation measure, but
this is part of the element that goes
into the consideration for the Fed on
whether they're going to cut or hike
rates. So, I almost can guarantee
tomorrow morning at 8:30 in the morning,
if that report comes in more robust,
then that's going to be an opportunity
for the Feds to actually increase
probabilities of cutting or of hiking
rates, but if those jobs report comes in
weaker, that will at least take the
pressure off the Fed and likely keep the
rates the same. So, be watching tomorrow
at 8:30 in the morning. That will
determine if we gap up over this level
or if we fight it throughout the course
of the day and end up pulling back a
little bit on the chart. Next up into
the Qs. You see the Qs here pushing up
nicely 1.19% pushing through this gap
filled by the end of the day. Very nice
day here on the Qs. You notice here too,
we did have this trend line just a
little bit lower as I connected the
pivot here and allowed a couple pierces
to occur on the chart. We're basically
right into a test for the Qs, which does
illustrate why price is pulling back
down at least on the near term today as
you see here that trend line did reject
price uh on previous dates when price
has pushed up into that range. But for
all sake, we'll keep it from pivot to
pivot and then that connects this pivot
as well. So, the Qs still have a little
bit more to run before we can get into
some serious levels of contention if
we're able to gap and push higher
tomorrow, a lot hinges on that jobs
report as I did explain just a moment
ago. Next up into the SMH, not in
breakout territory yet, but look at
these past 6 days of price action. This
one little outlier that did separate
very nicely from this declining trend
line. Aside from that, price is doing a
really good job trying to stay close. In
a way, this is somewhat consolidating
underneath this trend line. So, if
you're a bull, you want to see price get
above this trend line. Tomorrow could be
easily done at $553.77.
If we do that, next resistance on SMH,
the top end of this parallel channel at
$569.65.
A bad jobs report for potential rate
hikes, we could see price on SMH come
down, tag this support at $533.91.
Uh really, guys, and in a secondary
move, and really a big influencer on the
markets today was the dollar. Look at
this big fall on the dollar. Now, guys,
think about this just for a second, all
right? Whenever your dollar loses value,
what does that mean? Well, that means
everything else is more expensive,
right? You think about that. Your
dollar, if it's going less in in less
distance, you're going to have to get
more dollars to buy the same thing that
you just bought. That's the same thing
that's true on the stock market.
Whenever dollar the dollar moves this
much in one day, gold will go up. Silver
will go up. The stock markets likely
will go up, too, because again, that
same philosophy, that same thought
process, where your dollar's getting
weaker, the cost of these stocks are
getting more expensive. So, you see, we
had the 10-year yield that did pull
down. The dollar pulled down very
significantly. It did catch support. You
know, as the dollar is in an inclining
parallel channel, that's the same level
of support that we did tag just the
other week in August 21st, and that
level is getting tested yet again today
with those comments um at least helping
price to get pushed down the road as far
as rate hikes are concerned. And really,
that all is driven right here on the
10-year yield. Now, the 10-year yield
did fall down pretty decently today. Got
down to about 4.73%,
but you see it rallied back up to 4.77%
by the end of the day. The dollar did
not look that way. Thus, the market
still stayed elevated going into the end
of the day waiting on that jobs report.
The good news on the 10-year yield,
we're not consolidating up here. Matter
of fact, you can look at this as a time
count as I talked about the other day in
mastering the overnight trade, uh the
sleeper hold courses as I teach. This
was a time count moving up straight into
resistance. So, we should be
anticipating a pullback. And there you
go, there's that QR code on the screen.
If you want to check that out, learn
about time counts, you can anticipate
these moves before they do happen, much
like what we do right here in this show.
Just like we illustrated with gold the
other day, time count moving down, pop
right here on the bottom of the parallel
channel as I illustrated with the dollar
heading lower near term. That helped
gold remain elevated on the day, pushed
up nicely. $4,471
is where we're currently trading. Next
resistance, $4,575.
Similar story over here in silver, guys.
Nice push up, 2.41% today, getting ever
so close to the next key level of
resistance here at $67.99.
Uh next up into US oil. Now, US oil,
look, it kind of put a little pause day
in considering what had happened the
last six trading days or so. And again,
this too is taught in my course. I
highlighted that yesterday, but this
move up was illustrating we're likely
due for a pause or a pullback. We did
get a minor pullback today from where we
closed yesterday, but it wasn't robust
as we still have increased escalation
activity in the Middle East. And when
there's uncertainty there, the price of
oil is likely going to continue to rise.
This was illustrating this could be a
spot of pulling back. And we'll see if
we get any sort of news in the next day
or over the weekend over a potential
de-escalation in the Middle East, but as
of right now it that does not look to be
the case. It's just what the chart
shows. It shows that it should be
stalling out a little bit here and we'll
see what occurs over the next couple
days.
Next up in the Nat Gas. Nat Gas decent
decline today and that all occurred when
inventories were released at 10:30 this
morning. You can see on the 10-minute
chart right here big collapse on natural
gas, but it did have a very nice
recovery technical bounce, but then
ended up fading at the end of the day.
Now, the inventories came in in line,
but they were double what they were on
the last reading. So,
investors saw that as a sell the news
opportunity, take profits, but guys as
we recall whoops as we recall this pivot
is one that we've been focusing on for
several weeks here in the show. That
level's at $2.90. We've cleanly broken
out and confirmed above that level
giving us the opportunity to buy Nat Gas
with any sort of returns back down to
this trend line for a returning
momentous bounce up with the ultimate
destination this declining trend line on
the chart. Will be stops along the way
around $3.12 to $3.13
the low pivots from this consolidation
range on this side of the chart. Next up
into Bitcoin guys. Bitcoin big rally
today again back on the news with the
dollar getting weaker help fuel the fire
in Bitcoin to rip up through this key
trend line that really has been holding
down prices we see here ever since this
pivot low that occurred back in November
of 2025. Simply just draw that trend
line out on your chart and that gives
you a great idea of resistance. Now, if
we look back on this previous breach of
this trend line, price got up to a
almost $83,000
and that could be the destination for
this near-term pop. Getting through that
level and closing above that level will
be key for Bitcoin to remain above
$80,000,
but if you look back on the chart, we
see this low pivot that occurred back in
December of 2025, that level is just
under $85,000, and that will be the next
resistance for Bitcoin. Should we get a
close above $82,920?
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promo. All right, guys, back into the
charts we go, and we're going to follow
up on Dell. We touched on Dell just the
other day after its huge earnings beat,
and look at the follow-through move that
occurred today. Now, yesterday with the
push above this declining trendline, I
said it likely is going to be pretty
tough for Dell to confirm this breakout
above this declining trendline. Well,
man, Dell mustered up the strength and
did that very cleanly. Great push up.
Where did it go to, guys? We see here
clearly, you may say, "Drew, 530 bucks."
You're exactly right, but why did it
stop there? Again, anybody can do this,
guys. Just get your trendline tool, go
over to the previous pivot, connect that
top pivot to the very next key pivot.
Let's draw that out together. See where
that goes. Flip to the 10-minute chart.
Oh my goodness, guys, look at that key
spot of resistance. This level in the
trendline came in roughly $527.60.
We made a 10-minute topping tail right
there on that trend line and then faded,
as you see here, got as low as around
509. The power of drawing trend lines
illustrating this overbought nature near
term of the stock, ran straight into
resistance and then cooled off. Now,
near term, Dell has had great earnings,
but it's not overbought in the near
term. So, we still could go higher, but
this one key element of this close today
tells us any sort of pulls back pulls
pullbacks, excuse me, down to this
declining trend line can be a buying
opportunity for momentum to return to
the stock and go higher. So, this is a
big establishment today. Now, if we
continue to march up, next major
resistance will be the top of the
parallel tomorrow at 582.71.
Be very unlikely we hit that, but we'll
have to tune back in and see. Uh next
up, HPE. Guys, we did cover this briefly
yesterday. It was selling off after
hours guys, and even opened up down
gapping lower today, but look at the
rapid recovery on this stock. This we
had to bring this back up because this
was momentous. We had a inclining trend
line dating back here to April of this
year. Hit it once, twice, three times.
This fourth hit, we gapped under and
rose to the occasion to get higher. Now,
we stopped on this declining trend line,
a pivot low from August 17th connected
to the pivot high that occurred here in
August 27th. At least today, that's
where price stopped. If you're a bull,
you want to see price get back above
that trend line. That trend line, as you
could see tomorrow, very, very close.
54.74. If we can do that, then we're
talking about testing this triple top
here on HPE. Incredible recovery here on
HPE intraday today. Another big mover is
Snowflake. Now, Snowflake couldn't hold
all of its gains, and you can see here a
series of breakout attempts, more or
less to illustrate how price moves when
it does get into breakout situations.
And you can see our first trend line,
and the key one here for the breakout,
drawn down to this pivot that occurred
over here in November or October of
2025.
And then when price first accelerated
up, got rejected, and then got on top,
consolidated, came back down, retested
the top of that trend line, and then
accelerated up higher uh creating
another pivot, and then this earnings
report gapped up over that trend line,
too. So, price action, needless to say,
has been in overbought territory for a
while before this uh price action sorted
out. But then now we're finding
ourselves getting right back up there
again at 66.17
even with the sell-off today. So, if
Snowflake can hold this latest inclining
trend line, that value in the coming
days is at $346.70.
It would almost be beneficial for it to
sell off a little bit more, work out
some of that overbought nature for near
term. That way it can go up and attempt
to attack the most recent pivot high
right over $400, about $405
on the chart. Really thought it had a
shot in getting there earlier today,
premarket, but in turn it decided to
just take profit and sell off on the
chart. Still, needless to say, great
move on earnings. One that did not have
awesome move was Campbell Soup, and we
see Campbell Soup here. It did provide a
mixed bag. We did beat on earnings per
share, but missed on revenue. And you
can see a lot of that was due to uh
support debt reduction, all right? They
even cut their dividend, guys. So,
cutting the dividend, investors get into
some of these stocks um for the safe
haven of that nature because they can
collect money even if the stock really
doesn't make a lot of moves. We see here
today, down almost 7%, but good recovery
on Campbell. And most importantly, it
already retested this inclining trend
line that it broke from. So, even though
it's negative to break here, testing it
within that same day is actually
somewhat positive. We'll see if
Campbell's can't start pushing back up,
consolidating on that trend line in the
near term. Keep testing it so it can get
back above. We see after hours, at least
for right now, price is coming back
down. Now, let me zoom back out to
really show you what's going on on
Campbell Soup on the weekly time frame.
We've had a steady decline ever since
this high back here in July of 2016. You
can see price action most recently was
saved by the bottom of this parallel,
but then this near term break puts that
parallel
square in view again, guys. That's down
here at $19.85.
In essence, the pivot lows that occurred
earlier this year. So, beware as long as
Campbell Soup remains underneath this
inclining trend line, we are vulnerable
for another re-attack of this bottom
range of the parallel channel. Next up,
guys, the biggest stock of them all,
Nvidia. Now, guys, you got to pay
attention when Nvidia is bubbling up
against its previous all-time highs.
Most importantly, too, we got to pay
attention to Nvidia when it most
recently has broken out from a declining
trend line. I remind you again,
breakout, retest, and bounce play,
taking price above the previous pivot
high. So, we found some sellers, and
then the last 3 days Nvidia has gained
over 6% pushing right back up into this
upper range. You can see what's also
holding price back right here. We've got
an inclining trend line that at least in
the near term is capped price here,
capped price on this attempt. That tells
me Nvidia near term has resistance right
here, but that makes sense. There's also
this pivot high in the exact same
location, roughly right about 228 or
$232
on the chart. Beyond that, we've got the
50% area of the parallel, but before
that, we've got the all-time highs. So,
you can see the resistance levels are
stacking up right on top of each other
for Nvidia. Doesn't mean they can't go
through them, but still it's got a lot
of work to do before we're talking about
brand new all-time highs, and then we
would talking about trying to get back
into the top 50% of this long-dated
parallel channel that you see goes all
the way back here to the liberation day
lows back in April of 2025. Lastly,
guys, we've got HOOD on deck, and HOOD
has seen an explosion on the charts,
mainly because of some revenue that
they've derived from the
cryptocurrencies and using tokens for
their customers to purchase through
their network. So, beautiful surge on
HOOD today, up 16.57%.
Notice what it did, too, and I'm going
to go ahead delete this trend line to
illustrate it. We broke out from a
declining trend line, a declining trend
line that's already had three hits, one
hit here, second hit there, third hit
collectively right here in this range in
July, and then you can see we recently
came up to it, didn't hit it, instead
got rejected, and now gapped up over
that. So, a big breakout on hand for
HOOD. We need to do like what DELL did
today, push higher again tomorrow, put a
higher close, and then any sort of
pullbacks on HOOD can be a buying
opportunity. What may be hard for HOOD
to get higher tomorrow is that you see
with this inclining trend line, pivot
taken from back in September of 2025,
connected to the low in November of '25,
notice how when price came down to it,
we consolidated, we even got rejected
from this trend line when price came up
and tagged at the last occasion, but now
we're rallying right back into this
level again. As long as HOOD doesn't gap
over this, we're going to have a lot of
resistance tomorrow in essence at
today's high. So, we'll have to see what
HOOD does after gaining 16 and 1/2% a
gap over this trend line will then open
the way for HOOD to push up to the next
resistance right here just under $135.
Beautiful move though on HOOD on the
day. It is a wild mover when it gets
going, so be careful trading that
intraday. All right, guys, thank you
again for watching. Don't forget to like
and subscribe to the video. Plus, guys,
we've got Crypto Combat hitting you guys
tomorrow at 1:30 live. Please tune in.
We've got a really cool teaser video
right at the end of this show. So, hang
around for a few seconds to check that
out. Until then, guys, can't wait to see
you on Monday as Trading the Close is
not open tomorrow or not available, but
we've got the jobs numbers that's going
to be hitting the market at 8:30. So, be
paying attention to that. Could add to
the volatility, add the opportunity for
gap ups over these key levels of
resistance that we highlighted on
today's show. All right, thanks again
for watching, guys. We'll see you next
time right here on the charts. Take
care, everybody.
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