SPY Support Bounce Delivers As Yields Surge Past 4.8 Percent

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys
the markets had a nice relief technical
rally today and that's going to be the
framing for this show. Today we're going
to go over the technical analysis, why
gold popped, why the spiders popped, why
the Q's popped, why the SMH popped, why
they all popped. IWM even popped today.
But it's really breaks down into
technical analysis on the charts. We're
due to bounce even despite the 10-year
yield and oil pushing up. Plus we're
going to highlight key technical time
counts too. And if you don't know
anything about time counts, do yourself
a favor. I teach a course Mastering the
Overnight Trade specifically designed
with time counts. It's one of my uh
passions as well as expertise is here
with cycles and time work, understanding
when time's up and when is time to start
buying. All right, guys? So let's get
into some charts starting off with the
S&P 500 as you see here on the daily
time frame. You may be saying, "Drew,
what are you talking about technical
bounce?" Well, we talked about this
yesterday and really several days
leading up until today about this
previous high pivot back here on June
2nd. What do we talk about in the show,
guys? We talk about breakouts and
retraces because they're a valuable
money maker. Now, one thing that did
reduce probabilities of a bounce here
was the fact that we came so close back
here in August 20th as well as August
24th to tagging this level of support.
But the fact is we didn't do it,
extended ourselves away providing space
in that big three-day decline. Again,
this is a big number to understand, one
of which I do go through in Mastering
the Overnight Trade, the sleeper hold.
It's something I find and it's
repetitive on the charts over and over
again helping to give us insight.
Specifically, this nice 3-day decline
right into support that should have
yielded a bounce and that's exactly what
occurred. Now, we go into the QQQ and we
see here the Q's also up 0.23% today.
Not as much volatility, but coming right
back down into this range of support
holding price up for at least the near
term. Now, after hours we see price
coming down. HPE reported, which we'll
cover that chart here in a few moments,
as well as AVGO and they were going in
opposite directions. Now, near term on
the Q's kind of in no man's land right
here. Uh near term support will be down
here at 695.25, but we're going to have
to get through this gap fill first at
$700, which likely would pause some of
the selling for at least a day or two if
we do continue moving down on the
charts. But, I see for us there could be
a potential for oil to pull back. We'll
get into that here in just a few
moments. Uh secondly and and next into
the SMH. The SMH, guys, as we see here
nice bounce up. As we saw, we came right
back down yesterday into this low from
August 24th and since have put in a near
term low. Look at the wicks developing
right here on all three of those days
when this coming into price action here
at the $544
and $43 range on the SMH. The near term
upside resistance hasn't changed except
for Actually, I guess it somewhat has.
It's decreased, but it hasn't changed as
far as how we're getting it. With this
declining trend line as the first area
of resistance tomorrow could be tagged
at $595. We see price actually after
hours pulling down ever so slightly. If
we continue selling tomorrow, the next
key technical level for support will be
the 50% area of this parallel at 533.49
cents. That area also provided support
back when it hit the 50% area of the
parallel on July 29th. Notice since
these are all inclining trend lines and
declining trend lines, they're dynamic.
And what that means is that changes in
value when they extend out on the chart,
you know, the value here at $500
obviously is different than when price
hit it on July 29th at 507. So,
important to consider and also monitor
whenever you're doing your TA on your
charts, these inclining and declining
trend lines I have found to be some of
the most successful guides for steering
ourselves in the market. Speaking of
which, another inclining parallel
channel on the IWM on the daily time
frame. Look at this long-term inclining
parallel dating back here to the April
2025 lows. Where did price come
yesterday? Right into the 50% area of
the parallel. And what did it do today?
Bounced. And also, what happened right
here? Another time count scenario
straight into support. That's where we
should get the technical bounce. Now, if
we get any sort of legs behind this, we
could push all the way up to 297 on the
IWM. But, the key thing to watch in the
coming days is going to be right here on
this chart, the 10-year yield. Look at
what it did today, guys. Got as high as
4.816%
tagging this level of resistance at
4.809%
and pulling back in. Now, if you also
notice, 1 2 3 4 5 6, another time count
right into resistance. Should have some
sort of pullback here. But guys, with
the yield and investor concerns
remaining elevated, I can see a
situation where we consolidate here,
maybe even then gain entry to the top
portion because the next stop, guys, is
at 5%. That's going to be at a previous
pivot high that occurred back here as
you see on the chart
in November of 2023. So, getting above
and remaining above 4.809%
is the next threshold on the 10-year
yield. For at least today, pulling back
from that area, but still big
development with this big push up the
last six trading days on the 10-year
yield. In essence, we're
any sort of attempt the Fed had at
leveling out the yield curve here. So,
very interesting move
going on. Speaking of which, this week
we're going to have the non-farm
payrolls on Friday. So, be post be put
that on your calendar. That likely will
move this chart on the 10-year yield and
will also narrow in those potentials for
either rate hikes or keeping the rates
the same at the September FOMC meeting.
Back into technicals, guys. Why did gold
bounce today with the yields pushing up?
Because of this parallel channel. Look
at this chart that you have with gold
dating back here to the April 25th lows.
We had a period of time in which price
got below the parallel, but you can see
we attempted to get back in, rejected,
attempted to get back in, rejected
again, and then on that third attempt
blasted out through the bottom of the
parallel. This is your breakout retrace
bounce play in effect. The one caveat I
have here is inclining trend lines
generally don't carry the largest of
bounces once they break in and then
catch a bounce. The reason being it's
already getting extended to break into
this parallel. Compare that to a
breakout from a declining trendline. We
can have a breakout and a retrace that
actually sells the price down further
before that bounce can accelerate higher
than the initial breakout scenario. None
Needless to say, this is still a very
nice breakout retrace bounce play with a
time count in effect on this decline as
well. They appear on every chart, guys.
It helps guide you to the location in
which we should catch support and
especially we are in a support zone.
There's a fib retrace here at $4,333
perfectly aligning with this lower range
parallel support bar providing that nice
bounce that occurred today. Back into
technicals with silver chart on the
daily time frame. This pivot high today
was tagged as you see here from July
6th, price broke out above that area,
retested that trend line, bounced, and
has since came right back in and tested
this trend line. So, right now that is
the line in the sand, $63.26.
If the yields cool off in the next
couple days, I can see a scenario where
we go back up and tag the $67.99
level of resistance. Uh next up into US
oil, also technical breakout, retrace,
bounce play on the chart and also time
count scenario. Notice the high pivot
today got right here in the range of
these uh previous two candles that
attempted the the last breakout on July
23rd and 24th. This doji candle, also
something highlighted in Mastering the
Overnight Trade, that tells me if we do
end up closing the day here in the next
30 minutes with a doji candle,
probabilities will actually increase for
a little bit of a pullback on US oil
tomorrow. I know it may sound odd, but
the next support here is $87.77. Upwards
resistance at $96.44.
Next up into nat gas, beautiful push
here on nat gas today. Look at the price
action getting and clearing above the
previous high candle wick on August
27th, and most importantly, staying up
here, not selling off like that candle
did on that day. So, very nice ascent,
but we are running into the next level
of resistance right here $3.11
to $3.12.
Even Even this little low pivot could be
a little bit of resistance tomorrow at
$3.04
and 1/2 cents, but this would be the
bigger one right up here around 311 and
312. If you're in this, nice push on nat
gas. You can see on the daily, we're
starting to get close to overbought on
the daily RSI at 66.24. Anything over 70
is considered overbought in the near
term, but I think if and when we do get
up to this resistance, I don't think
that's the end of the road for nat gas.
We sure, we may have a pullback, but I
think the ultimate near-term destination
is going to be up on this declining
trend line right around $3.25.
Uh next up into Bitcoin. You see here,
Bitcoin the last 2 days developing some
pretty decent daily candle wicks on the
bottom of their trading action right
here on top of the measured move that
was accomplished from this inverse head
and shoulders pattern. Beautiful push
higher, pushing through to the level of
resistance that we've highlighted from
this low pivot back in November of 2022.
Strong out all the way across the chart,
and you can see we've really had issues
on Bitcoin getting above that level on a
couple occasions. Now, most recently,
you can see here with this red candle
that occurred on August 28th, we've been
putting in near-term bearish
consolidation up here at the pinnacle of
all of this consolidation. Now, keep in
mind, this is near-term. The larger move
is a big bull flag, but what I'm seeing
right here is actually pointing towards
more of a potential chance of price
closing beneath this measured move level
at seven $76,116.
If that occurs, that will increase
probabilities of Bitcoin coming down to
the next support, $72,000,
followed by, and depending upon the
timing, the bottom of this parallel
channel at $66,833.
That's why it's critical and a good
thing for the Bitcoin bulls the last two
daily candles are developing these wicks
right here. The most important thing for
the bulls, get Bitcoin back up in the
top range, back up in $80,000, knocking
on this resistance door, further
weakening that level. But the longer it
hangs out in this near-term bear flag
pattern, looks like we're going to be
trying to break this level and head down
lower. Next up, following up on Dell,
guys. We did report this after hours
yesterday. I was highlighting the fact
of if price were to close or were to
open tomorrow above $468,
that would clear the area and clear the
overhead resistance for Delta push up
above this declining trend line as a
breakout. But guys, look at the
10-minute chart, we did not open up
above that level. You can see we opened
up at 462.05.
Let me expand this out so you can really
get a grasp for what happened. We ran
straight into that resistance trend line
and in doing so we pierced it. This is
what can happen, folks, where it's more
or less like a a trampoline. When you
jump on the trampoline, this line being
the trampoline, notice how that
trampoline can push back, but ultimately
look at the re- jection that it got
right there. So that's the value of
isolating down a key breakout level and
if price opens above or beneath it
because I illustrated yesterday, it's
going to have to exert a lot of energy
to get through that level and it did try
to do so. Got as high as 483 and 94
cents, far above that 468 level, but
then look at that reversal all the way
back down here to $432
and then right back up to 497.99
putting in a 10-minute daily or or
10-minute topping tail. At the end of
the day, wild price action on Dell, but
looking at the end of the day, what
happened? It closed above this declining
trend line. Now to confirm this sort of
close providing
support to the declining trend line, we
need to see Dell in the coming days put
in a daily close above this candle. That
will offer the conviction and spacing
far enough away from the support so that
any pullbacks could then be buying
opportunities. We'll see if Dell can
accomplish that feat tomorrow. Uh
otherwise, near-term resistance double
top high up here at $514.
The way that Dell bounced back today, I
see no reason why it can't go up
tomorrow if we have a similar day in the
markets as today. Uh next up into
MongoDB. Now MongoDB curious results
after earnings. You can see here, double
beat. We beat on earnings per share,
beat on revenue. As a matter of fact,
MongoDB also raised full-year guidance.
However, they they are somewhat stagnant
with their growth rates. Their their
current cloud database platform grew by
only 29% year-over-year. And you may
say, "Hey, that's not too bad." And it
really isn't, but the problem is it's
staying right there at 29%. So,
investors were anticipating a higher
growth rate and since punished the
stock. Now, look, this was a breakout
scenario and has since, keep in mind,
any failed moves, guys, see some of the
biggest moves in the opposite direction.
You could see we had a breakout here and
it up failing. Then here on uh the 27th,
closed above this declining trend line,
confirmed it here in the following two
trading days with the conviction push
up, and then earnings rewrote that
entire story, plummeting price all the
way back down. Now in a breakdown
scenario. So, any sort of bounces up
into X marks the spot will be resistance
here at $417.35.
Next support at 361.05,
followed by what would be a very nice
near-term buying opportunity if price
can continue down to this level for
near-term swing trade is right at $331.
Notice that's taken from the pivot low
on April 10th, as well as a pivot low on
July 24th. That gives you your honey
spot third hit of this uh inclining
trend line for a high probability
potential bounce play given that price
continue moving straight down into that
level. We don't want to see chops, move
down, chop sideways, as that could
weaken the area and then allow it to
break. Uh next up into GoPro, guys. Look
at this move on GoPro. Uh just the other
day, trading on August 28th, right down
here near 60 cents. Now, post-market
hours at a dollar and 90 cents, guys.
Huge explosion, no doubt about it, and
in particular with volume. Look at this
volume just spike out of control. Well,
there was an online uh streamer that did
say that they were going to purchase and
did purchase about 8% of GoPro, and the
retail crowd has sent this stock
reaching for the sky. Now, near term, we
actually are into resistance, but much
like I was touching on with that Dell
chart, this level is resistance, but if
we gap above it, it's not going to exert
the energy to get through it during the
normal daily market hours. So, as you
see here, post market hours trading
above this trend line, we very well
could be in store for a gap and go play,
but be mindful we are overbought to the
nth degree at 87.82
on the daily RSI. Again, anything over
70 is overbought. Let's see where this
declining trend line comes from. To
illustrate, this is a pretty decent
potential breakout for GoPro. This pivot
high occurred back here in January of
2023 connected over to this pivot high
in September of 2022. So, the clear area
to beat was what we defined at a dollar
and 83 cents. Now, if price opens up
above that tomorrow, we could target
this $3 price point before we have some
serious profit taking and pullback in.
Usually, when stocks run straight up,
they end with price coming straight back
down. So, be careful if you're in this.
Be mindful you could have some good
opportunities with this retail push, but
guys, the technicals are the technicals.
One level at a time. Isolate down your
levels that you want to take, but be
mindful this is a stretched chart. Not
all the way on the weekly at 66, but
that daily time frame, goodness
gracious, it needs to cool off sooner
rather than later.
Uh and next up into Skyworks Solutions
and we can see here, too, on the weekly
time frame a declining trend line that
price is yet again attempting to break
out of. You can see we had a failed
breakout here. Beautiful plunge right
back down creating this trend line as
the next level of support. Now, we flip
to the daily time frame. The move today
confirmed the breakout clearing the way
for this next level of resistance at
$76.01.
That means any sort of pullback here,
folks, can be a buying opportunity to
this declining trend line at $64.59.
Beautiful break and confirming move
today with Skyworks on that chart,
pushing up over 6%. Now, at the tail end
of a breakout scenario, we can see here
with Palantir also did break out from a
declining parallel channel and it did
did so back here on August 4th. It
really accelerated up, extending itself
out of that parallel channel. Now, we
see price coming back down today, down
nicely 5.81%.
Now, near term, Palantir has saved
itself and you may say, "Well, what do
you What do you mean?" Well, price
closed today within these candles'
ranges, all right? Had we put in a close
underneath this candle low, that would
have increased probabilities of price
coming down further in the near term.
So, for right now, price pierced that
level, but ended up closing back within
the range. Watch very closely in the
coming days. If we do put in a close
underneath $171.04,
probabilities will increase for that
bounce, retrace, buying opportunity for
that potential
bounce play after the breakout. So, this
is at $157.05
as the first two-factor level of support
with these previous pivots. And then,
beyond that, the declining
top portion of this parallel $140.
and $27. All right, guys. Last up, we
got some earnings results after the
bell. We see AVGO now flipping to the
downside. Now, down at $652.60,
testing the low range here from August
26th. If this selling continues, guys,
look at this level. Look how nice this
level is when I draw my fib retracement
tools. I pull that up. Look at this
level, $333.84,
786 fib retracement that happens to also
be at a gap fill from April 7th. Guys,
if we don't get a bounce here, I will be
awfully surprised specifically if we
sell straight into it after hours. Now,
let's look at the 10-minute chart. We
initially popped up higher, got as high
as 373, but then declined all the way
down here to 342 on the charts and then
since bounced right back up. Big huge
decline there on AVGO. We'll see where
this takes us into the morning, where we
open, as that will guide us with sort of
uh probabilities on price action getting
to our levels. Now, lastly, HPE also
reported earnings. It is not moving
nearly as much. We do see it down, but
the key level for it to hold is going to
be $50.45.
We can see we clearly got down way too
much lower than that, 4666
as the low. So, if we do open tomorrow,
guys, beneath $50.60,
expect some more selling pressure on
HPE. Key uh dual factor support level at
$45.58.
We could see a scenario where we break
down, catch support, retrace right back
up to that broken trend line. All right,
guys, that wraps up trading the close
today. Don't forget non-farm payrolls on
Friday morning. That's going to be
really important to follow. Otherwise,
guys, another day of trading the close
tomorrow. Can't wait to see you there.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to
this video. Send it out to your friends
and family so they too can learn
technical analysis on the charts. That
wraps up the show. Thanks again for
watching. Look forward to seeing you
back here tomorrow. Uh right here on the
charts. Take care, folks.