Yields Spike Triggering Investor Fear, Gold Slammed Again, Oil Potential Breakout On Tanker Strikes

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until [music] I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors [music] the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now we have some big things going on.
The same issues as we've seen recently.
Oil going higher on more strikes on big
tankers in the straight of Hermuz by
Iran sending oil to the upside nearing
again around that 88 plus dollar a
barrel level on WTI. Now in addition,
yields continue to push higher. The
Japanese 10-year yield hitting 3%
overnight, the first time it's hit 3% in
over 30 years. The US 10ear is now
bubbling up against uh 4.8%
which was a key pivot from January of
2025. If we take that out, 5% is the
major point of contention. That goes
back to October of 2023's high. So that
would be a major double top. That's the
one I think the markets will freak out
about. If we get through that one, that
is going to make things very choppy in
the market. So, we're going to watch
this closely. Let's go right into the
charts and take a look. S&P futures are
under significant pressure. You can see
in the overnight, initially after hours
yesterday, markets did almost nothing.
And then all of a sudden we started to
see those yields climbing and those
strikes on the tankers in the straight
of Hormuz. And what we saw is as oil
climbed and yields climbed, the S&P 500
overnight collapsed to the downside.
We're now trading just off of the lows
of the day. So it's setting up to be a
pretty nasty day here in the markets.
Another basically 2/3 of a percent drop
in the S&P 500. and more importantly on
the S&P futures here, which is what
we're looking at because we actually
have the data here. You can see we are
breaking this recent technical support.
So, what that does is it opens up the
door for a move down to my midpoint
pivot line. And you guys remember that
we've talked about that pretty much in
every episode that as long as we stay
above that pivot line, it's a neutral to
bullish stance on the market per
probability. If we break below that
pivot line now all of a sudden we go to
a neutral stance and could test a major
breakdown level in the markets. Now
listen, even with yields where they are,
oil where it is, let's be fair, the S&P
500 is still only about 3% off of its
all-time highs. So, if we were to see
yield start to moderate, if we were to
see oil come in, it would still lead me
to think the markets could hit a new
all-time high. in the next few weeks to
months. But again, the levels are where
I'm following. That will be my guide.
Speaking of which, let's flip back and
go to the S&P 500 daily chart. Here we
have it. And so, this was yesterday. We
were down about a third of a percent on
the S&P. But with today's drop, we have
to start saying, okay, are we going to
test these lows here, which is kind of
what we were just looking at on the uh
S&P futures. And if this breaks, it
opens the door to the midpoint of the
kind of this this I wouldn't call it a
channel. It's more of a megaphone
pattern to the upside. So remember, just
to rehash, this is the line in the sand
here on whether or not I stay bullish on
the S&P or move to a neutral stance.
Now, you might say, well, why wouldn't
you move to a negative stance? Well, if
you move to a negative stance here, what
happened? You ripped up. What if you did
it here? Ripped up. What if you did it
here? Ripped up. So, what you can see is
you have to be very careful about
letting emotion get control of you.
That's why the levels are so beneficial
because it keeps me in reality. It keeps
me focused on logic, which again, as you
guys know, we play probabilities here at
Verified Investing. Not hopes and
dreams, not fear and greed, not what's
the latest narrative being spun on the
mainstream media or the hype on social
media. What is the data saying? And
that's the kicker right here. All right.
So, watching here, guys, if we come
down, watch this level around 7570
on the S&P 500. That's your pivot line.
As long as we stay above here, I'm going
to remain short-term bullish on the
market. as bearish as I am with my
potential for another great recession at
the end of this decade into the early
2030s, the 100red-year cycle, and all of
those other factors. At least in the
short term, the charts are holding their
own. We're still in an uptrend in the
S&P 500. All right, let's go into the
key movers and shakers. Oil, this is it,
folks. This is your 10-minute charts.
You can really see oil in the overnight.
Remember when the futures dropped pretty
sharply in the overnight? This is when
oil began to spike higher like that. We
flip over to the daily chart. This is a
concern to me. Yesterday, we closed
fractionally above a major trend line.
Today, we're pushing above it even more.
Is oil in the process of breaking out?
It might be here. And the chart is the
arbiter that tells us one way or the
other. Remember that. Doesn't matter
what I think. Doesn't matter what any of
us think. It's what the chart says. And
right now, the chart is telling us to be
very wary that oil could be on the verge
of a bigger move up back above $90 a
barrel, maybe even to $100 a barrel if
things escalate. Now, my common sense
mind says the president, President Trump
does not want that because the midterms
now are about two months away. It is
September 1st and again, November 4th
elections, right? So, we have to monitor
that. It may mean that we kind of just
chop around this area, but if we stay
above this and there's no resolution
with Iran and the midterms pass, I would
expect serious escalation on a military
basis. Once the elections are over here
in the US, there's nothing stopping the
president from escalating further on a
military side with Iran and trying to do
serious, you know, create serious change
over there. All right. Um the dollar
today inching back up. So we had this
pullback on the dollar, dollar pushing
back up. So yesterday downside, today
right back up. Remember the US dollar
can go as high as this level before it
hits major technical resistance. So
monitor that. And really this is the
other one, the 10year yield kissing
4.8%.
The reason that's significant is if we
zoom out to our high from 2025,
look at this high and look at where that
is. It's literally right there. Let's
draw that trend line in. And you could
see, so this is short-term resistance. I
repeat, the 10-year yield is tagging
shortterm resistance today. This is a
level that is a technician of the charts
I am monitoring closely. Now, we
respect, remember what the markets tell
us and what the charts teach us. We
respect resistance until proven
otherwise. We respect support until
proven otherwise. So, what we're looking
at here and saying, okay, what should
happen is we should see some sort of
pullback on the 10-year yield. That
would indicate that if we see that in
the next few days, markets would get a
little bit of a bounce, right? On the
other side, if we pull back and then
consolidate and make a bull flag, we
likely would head up on a breakout to
5%. And 5% I think is the psychological
level that would really freak markets
out substantially. So, just simply put,
all I'm doing is I'm watching this
level. I would generally be a buyer of
stocks here. Why? Because we're at
resistance. So, if yields pull back,
then markets would intend to go higher.
that also meshes with the S&P. As long
as the S&P holds this 7570 level, then
we remain in an uptrend and the bulls
remain in control. So, you see how we
still have the bullish bias on the S&P
because it's above the level. And with
the 10-year yield into resistance, it
also leads us to think that we could see
a small pullback in yields at least for
a few days. And that would be the
bullish angle for the S&P 500. Here's
the Japanese 10-year yield. 3% hit. We
actually went to 3.01%
before a small pullback. But incredibly,
if we go to our weekly chart, look at
this, guys. I actually, this chart
itself doesn't go back far enough, but
you would have to go back 30 years to
the last time the Japanese 10-year yield
was at 3%. It's really incredible. And
again, you might say, man, you know,
some of you that are newer that haven't
followed me, you might say, why is this
happening? Why are yields going to the
upside? And it's a very simple answer
because when you spend money recklessly
and debt to GDP is 240%
in Japan, US around 130%.
People are not going to lend you money
without charging a higher interest rate.
Right? If you don't think that whoever
you're lending the money to has a very
high probability of of repaying you,
you're going to demand a higher interest
rate. It's just the nature of markets.
And so that's really what it comes down
to is that when you let your fiscal
house get this screwed up, yeah,
interest rates are going to go up. And
the problem is is that it's going to
make us all pay for it, right? Whether
we're paying now a trillion dollars in
interest on the US debt. Okay, there's
wasted money of your and my tax dollars.
Uh or it's just going and getting a
loan. Well, guess what? Rates going up.
It's costing you more. Or inflation,
right? Inflationary as well. All of
these factors mean that we are paying
for essentially the lack of control of
those in power. And essentially, if we
break it down, it just simply is that
those in power are in a system where
they want to be reelected. So, they
never want to do the hard choice to make
the economy slow down and make people
maybe have a recession because then they
worry they're not going to get
reelected. It's one of unfortunately, as
good as the US system is, and I'm I I
love it, but term limits would be the
answer. term limits because then you
can't get reelected anyways. You can
make the hard choices that are better
for a country as a whole versus simply
making what's going to be good in the
short term. Remember, you know, hey, if
we load ourselves up with drugs, we're
going to feel great in the short term.
If we go out and drink and party at
night, we're going to feel great in the
short term. You know what? Tomorrow's
going to suck. And that's the problem is
that we're always focusing on the short
term because of elections and needing to
be reelected versus and anyways, I
digress. I don't mean to get off on
these ridiculous tangents, but sure, it
drives me a little bit crazy. Let's be
fair. Okay, so back to the charts. Let's
get back to the charts here. I know
that's what you guys come here for.
Medronic today reporting earnings
pre-market stock initially spiking and
basically coming back in. Nothing going
on here, guys. Notice how Medronic is
basically flat to slightly positive. As
a day trader, unless there's significant
upside or downside, chances are there's
not a level for me to trade. Okay, so
nothing there. Uh NEO NEO reporting
earnings this morning pre-market. This
is a Chinese EV maker. The stock gapping
lower initially, kind of mitigating,
coming back up. One of the things
interesting on NEO, I remember drawing
this trend line in a while ago and
looking at it. Notice how price broke
and then chopped, retraced to the scene
of the crime and when was rejected and
has gone lower. So, this is a classic
trend line break where again, as I've
shown you guys and taught you guys, you
know, when you have a trend line and
price hammers on it and finally breaks,
there's a tendency to go back to that
level and then the next leg down comes.
And that's exactly what happened here on
NEO. In terms of a level to buy, I mean,
maybe I'd start to get interested in
this lower level, the $330 level, maybe
down to about $3, but I'd have to
re-evaluate at that point. All right.
Now, we're going to turn our attention
to gold because gold is getting slammed
again. And again, just last week, I was
telling you guys, short the miners. The
miners are at a Fibonacci retrace 618,
the GDX. Um, we had Newmont Mining
making a new all-time high, even though
gold was still 20% off its all-time high
when when they were both aligned in
January at all-time highs together.
There was essentially a massive
discrepancy. If you played that trade,
holy cow, what a win it was. As miners
are getting smoked again today on this
gold drop. Let's take a look. Look at
this, guys. In fact, I like gold here. I
actually think it's good for a technical
bounce. We talked about this yesterday.
Look at this level on gold. Holy cow.
Again, I think for I listen, I don't
know if it's going to break here
eventually in the next few days, but
this is a good level on gold for an
intraday move. In fact, I am eyeing this
here. I got to I got to It's too hard to
enter orders while I'm doing this, but I
would be I might be nibbling on gold
here or the gold miners. Let's go to the
gold miner chart. So, listen. I want to
be clear on this. The gold miners, guys,
okay? It's hard to know whether or not
we'll see eventually a break lower, but
what I do know is that there should be a
bounce here in gold. And again, if that
happens, then the gold miners could get
a little bit of a technical bounce. So
again, amazing how the short was dead
on. Look at the level on gold here.
Rallied up into that. Now, potentially a
quick bounce play. Notice I'm stressing
quick because it doesn't mean gold can't
keep coming down. But again, let's look
at the GDX here as well. GDX is down.
See the GDX is not down to my level yet.
It needs to fall further. And just what
I mean by that is that so gold is at
support, but I want the GDX down here
before I enter. So again, I can't play
the GDX. Gold might be a different
scenario, but the GDX right here would
be my level at around 9265
if it comes into that level. That's also
a Fibonacci. If we do our fib right
here, essentially that's right at the
382 Fibonacci retrace. So, as of now, I
like gold for a bounce, but I don't like
the miners yet. Silver collapsing as
well. Silver's going to have some good
support right down here. Notice again,
if we draw a trend line from this pivot
high right here, look at how this pivot
low gets attacked, bounces that.
Therefore, that should tell us that
shortterm there's a level there. So,
silver could still go a little bit lower
today on that price point. natural gas.
Nat gas is also falling today. If we
take a look, it's coming all the way
back in to its key technical level. This
is now a major level at around 283 that
the natural gas chart must hold. So,
monitor this here, guys. I liked the
breakout. This still looks okay, but it
needs to hold this level. If it breaks
this level, that would be problematic.
Uh, Bitcoin is pulling back. The biggest
fear for me for Bitcoin bulls is that
you have a mini bare flag here. You can
see it right here starting to form. Does
that start to play out to the downside?
I remain, listen, I took off a fair
amount of my shorts on crypto, but I do
remain with a small basically a quarter
position size on Bitcoin on the short
side here. I like the bare flag for
downside. And if it pulls back enough,
then as you guys know, I'm a swing
trader. So then I'll go long Bitcoin.
And I think that's the important point
here is that it's regardless of like
like I whatever I believe long term, it
has no consequence on what I do in the
short term. And it's a very hard thing
for most investors to get behind because
when they believe in something longterm,
it's very hard for them to short it. Or
if they don't believe in something
long-term, it's very hard for them to
long it. But you have to be able to
differentiate your your biases over the
long term, which for me, I'm a huge bull
on gold. Bitcoin I still like as a
long-term potential asset. We'll see if
I'm right on that or not. I have no
clue. But I still see the reason why we
would want Bitcoin, right? You have a
debt that just is exploding. No fiscal
responsibility. Gold, silver, physical
assets, Bitcoin, right? It makes sense.
But on the other side, it doesn't mean
that I won't short it in the near term
like I did with the miners and like we
talked about with gold coming back in
when the chart tells me in the near term
it's going to pull back. There's money
to be made there. And that's the beauty
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that note, guys, I must get going here.
I got to get to my trading room. This is
very interesting on gold. I'm going to
go right to that chart. See if there's
an opportunity to actually buy a little
bit of gold here. Maybe I'll do it right
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Real Gold. On that note, I bid you all a
wonderful day. Have a great one and I'll
see you tomorrow. Take care.