Define a "Successful" Red Day…

What's up everyone? All right, in
today's episode I'm going to break down
my trades from the morning. Now
yesterday I did a recap where I talked
about a shift that's occurring in the
market in small caps specifically where
we were very hot in June, July, and the
beginning of August. And then we started
seeing these tremors of a few stocks
putting in huge rejections. And then the
last two weeks of August, things really
cooled off quite a bit. Well, the
beginning of September here uh is no
different. It's day it's continued to be
co cold. Now um it's important to take a
look at the overall market because we're
not in a bare market as far as the S&P
500 is concerned. Not even close. Now
the market is down a little bit off the
highs but not a lot. USO United States
oil fund oil prices are going up. So you
know we do have a little bit of a
dynamic there with you know obviously
the global events and affecting oil
prices and that does have a trickle down
effect on a lot of small cap companies.
um no doubt who are um have some
exposure to you know shipping costs and
this and that but um I would say that
the cold stretch that we're experiencing
right now in small caps is really more
related to the fact that we've had a
lack of good quality catalysts and we
had a period in August where we had a
lot of stocks that were making big moves
with no news at all. no catalyst. And
so, you know, obviously that only lasts
for so long before shorts start getting
aggressive and shorting earlier and
earlier and earlier and then bringing
these stocks back down. And we've gotten
to the point now where, you know, we've
seen stocks that uh hardly pop up at all
before already shorts are stepping in.
So, today our leading gapper is SGLD,
which is a gold Canadian gold company.
Um, had a big pop after hours and then
has come back down. So, no trades on
that. It also has a higher float. The
second leading gapper is LH AI. It's a
real estate company. But hold on,
they're getting into AI computing as a
subsidiary. Brilliant. Smart move in
this market. I guess AI is, you know,
the hot thing. And it's up 52% today,
but it's very thickly traded. So, it's a
slower mover. It's a higher percentage
gain because it's a lower price stock,
but really there was nothing here to
trade. So, I didn't trade that at all.
Then we have PBBT up 42% on 35 million
shares of volume. We have VIVK up on 40
million shares of volume. And so the the
theme today was lower price stocks. And
none of them have really been able to
pull away in a big way. Now, by the way,
for yesterday's recap, I don't think I
explicitly said it, but yesterday was a
no trade day. I realized at the end of
the recap that I hadn't shown my P&L,
which was that it was a no trade day.
Today is a red day. Uh, but I'm not in a
bad mood particularly uh because today
is what I would call a successful red
day. I took a couple trades on PBBT. I
felt like it was starting to pull away.
It did pull away. I added back for the
break of three and I went from green on
it back to red. And it is what it is.
You know, I stepped up to the plate on
it because finally we had a stock that
was moving quickly at that time. It was
our leading gainer and that was on this
break right here of the pre-market high.
So, it had this earlier pop and then
pulled back. No trades there, but as it
curled up here and broke through 333, I
had that line drawn, which was the high
of this level here from uh a little bit
earlier. And then I was looking for the
break through um 246. And we got both of
those breaks. And so that's when I was
like, "Okay, this stock is now going
through the high and it's not double
topping." Because we've had a lot of
moves where the stock pops up, it pulls
back, it double tops, and then rolls
over. This actually broke through the
high and went all the way up to three.
And boy, I thought it was going to break
three, and we were going to get a move
on this up towards 325 and 350. Now, on
the daily chart, PBT, well, let's step
back one second. So, PBT, PBT is a
biotech stock. They put out news earlier
today and you know the news is I
honestly didn't think that great. It's
um US patent allowance strengthens
protections for um this drug. There was
um what was it? Another stock that had
news earlier which arguably seemed a lot
stronger. Uh now well CAF, we'll talk
about that one in a second. Um, and now
I can't remember which one it was, but
in any case, um, you know, we had one
that did seem like arguably better news
and it really didn't do well at all. Uh,
JH or JL JHL, Chinese company, no news.
Um, CF this one. Um, oh, this was it.
So, um, they had phase three clinical
trial results that are, uh, that they
put out and it, this stock pops up and
then an hour later they're putting out
news of a secondary offering. It's
unbelievable. I mean, this stock just
it's such a dog. Every time it pops up,
and I love dogs, but as a stock, uh, no,
you wouldn't expect a a dog to be a good
publicly traded company. Uh, they don't
live that long. That's a problem. So
anyways, you get all these red candles
that keeps dropping and dropping. I
mean, this company does this. Everybody
knows it does it. So I didn't trust that
for a second. I saw the good news out.
Um, but I then I also pulled up CF and I
said, "Wait a second. When was the last
shelf registration? It was 3 days ago.
And who's the underwriter?" So we check
the under underwriter. It's HC Wayright.
And I see all that and I'm like, "Nope,
not touching that." So I didn't touch
that. But PBT, uh, this one I checked.
They do have a shelf registration as
many of these companies do, but theirs
was from May. I felt like um you know
that was fine. No big big risk here. Uh
in anyways, so we got this really nice
squeeze, but it was just not able
to hold. So I traded through this range
here, and I did turn a profit on it of
about $10,000
into a loss of 5,000. I sized up kind of
heavily as it was pulling away. I really
I was like, "Here we go. We finally got
something to work with." I'm sort of,
you know, taking that approach of um you
know, just sitting waiting and then when
I see something striking, but this one,
you know, it's a swing and a miss. So, I
could have just taken the little base
hit and been done, but I kind of pushed
it and tried to take that second trade
for the break over three. And as you can
see, we hit $3, we rejected, and that
was it. But you know what? Like I said,
this is a successful red day because
that was it. I stopped. I didn't spiral.
I didn't go for trade two, three, four,
five, and end up finding myself down,
you know, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50, 75, 100,
$150,000.
I had a couple really big red days in
August. And one of the things I said
yesterday was that if I had capped each
of those red days at a more moderate
loss of, you know, 15 or 20 grand, the
month would have been 50% better. I
would have made 50% more money. if I had
just stopped sooner on my red days. So,
this is me stopping sooner on a red day.
I'm down five grand and I can recover
that easily with a good trade tomorrow.
One decent trade tomorrow. You know, my
my good days this year have been in the
range of $20,000. Well, my average daily
gain has been 20,000. So, I suppose we
could actually look more closely at what
my um average green days have been
because that's a different statistic. My
average day factors in the winners and
the losers, whereas the average green
day, of course, is um just going to
factor in the average of the green days.
And then we can look at the average red
days. So, let's pull that up really
quickly here. I'm just going to pull up
my Trader view metrics on the side and
then I'll put it on screen share. So,
I'm also doing my recap a little bit
earlier today because I don't want to
keep looking at charts. I don't want to
get FOMO that, oh no, you know, two
seconds after stopping out, you know,
BIAF runs and son of a gun, uh, maybe I
should, you know, look, honestly, I look
at this right now, there's a part of me
that's tempted to jump in at 8 for the
breakthrough at yesterday's pivot there
and the high and catch a nice squeeze up
towards nine. Because in the moment, you
see it and you're like, "Oh, I've seen
these work well before and boy, I could
use a $5,000 winner right now. that sure
would be nice. And then next thing you
know, you've talked yourself into taking
a trade that's well, probably wasn't a
good idea. And then all of a sudden,
you've doubled your loss. You know,
you've gone from red whatever to to, you
know, 5,000 to 10,000 or more. So, all
right. So, these are my metrics here for
the year. Uh, this is for my just my
Roth I Oh, no, that's not it. Um, we're
going to do, let's see, this year year
to date. There it is. That was last
year. So yeah, this year, you know, um
I've made about a third as much as I
made last year. But don't worry, we
still got um you know, four months ahead
of us. So should be able to push that up
towards, you know, 3 3.5, maybe higher.
We'll see. And it'll still be lower than
last year, but last year was an
exceptional year. So anyway, so Oh. Oh,
detailed. So average green day is
15,000. Okay, so I'm at 15,000 average
green day right now. And um the average
average day average green day is 21,000.
Average red day is 21,000. Isn't that so
interesting? They're almost exactly the
same. So you might think, well, gez, how
are you even green on the year? Your
green days and your red days are the
same. It's because I've had a total of
120 winning days and only 20 losing
days. That's how. Now, if we look at
last year, just as a point of
comparison, um last year I had only 15
losing days and 220 winning days. Uh
winning days were $31,000 average, but
the losing days were also about 28
grand. So, they're they're fairly
similar. All right. So, you know, I
guess this is kind of that's this is who
I am. Uh you know, winners and losers
days end up being about the same. I
didn't even really haven't been looking
at that. So it's just that is what it
is. Uh but last month as we know was not
as great in that department. Um with the
losing days just for last month uh
26,000 for the winners and 38,000 for
the losers for the average. So that was
not good. So let's see if I can turn
that around for this month. And I'm
going to try to lead by example and show
you guys what it looks like to have
successful red days and not overstay
your welcome. Now I I I'm I'm saying
that and I and it's hard. It really is
hard. Uh there are some days where it's
very difficult to walk away. Uh but
today for whatever reason uh feels
easier and maybe because this loss is so
much tolerable uh than some of the
others I've recently had. So this is
where I finished the day, but I'll be
back at it first thing tomorrow morning.
And let me remind you for those of you
guys who are new at Warrior Trading
right now, we are running our Labor Day
sales. So, if you haven't already
checked them out, you can join the
Warrior Starter or our Warrior Pro
membership. Take advantage of the Labor
Day sale coupon codes and then you can
be in the community and see what it's
like to actually be trading in the
markets every single day. You'll see the
good, you'll see the bad. I put it all
on the table. So, thank you guys for
tuning in. Reminder as always, trading
is risky. My results aren't typical, and
there is no guarantee you'll find
success whether you trade with me or you
learn on your own. So, your best bet is
to always practice in the simulator
before putting real money on the line.
With that, I'll see you bright and early
tomorrow at 7