Trading The Close | September 8, 2026

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik. Hopefully
you guys had a great Labor Day weekend
and back into the markets we go with the
focus this week being on inflation.
We've got both PPI coming out Thursday
as well as CPI data coming out Friday,
both of which at 8:30 in the morning and
are likely going to move markets. The
comments just the other week from one of
our Fed govern- governors highlighting
the fact that they would be interested
in keeping the rates as is as long as
inflation shows progress. So that is on
the radar, no doubt about it this week.
Aside from that, we're going to be
watching the yields. The yields did
press up near their highs recently, so
that did put pressure on the overall S&P
500, but tech for the most part kept the
markets elevated. So let's break down
some charts, get into to what happened
today in the markets. First off with the
S&P 500 on the SPY daily ETF that we see
here, price action came down about 0.55%
and really, as you see here with the
high pivot, never had an opportunity to
go green today. We didn't gap up,
instead we gap down and then sold off
for the majority of the day. Flipping
over to the 10-minute chart, you see
here we opened up, came down, made an
attempt to go up higher, but that was
about as high as we were getting after
that decline on the S&P 500. Nasty end
of the day sell, a nice wick pulling
price back up, but this price action did
actually make a near uh term intraday
low on the day to close out. Now, we did
have some news in the Middle East with
escalation. Oil was rising, so that is
putting pressure on the markets as
certainly that does tie into inflation.
Now, we can see here with the SPDR's
move, we kiss gap fill as the near-term
support. So, that means if we continue
selling, the next area of support to
watch is down here at $760.40.
That is the previous all-time high
pivot. Into the upside, we'll get jammed
up by this declining trend line that you
see here at $772.21.
The likelihood, if rates do push higher,
is for a move lower on the S&P 500,
favoring this level down at $760.40.
Now, into the Qs. The Qs actually
remained somewhat neutral today. You see
they're down 0.08%, but if I flip to the
10-minute chart, that really all
happened after 2:30. Cuz as you see
here, the Qs bounced. We actually gapped
up, and then when we bounced, we went
positive, and we remained positive from
about 11:00 all the way until about
2:30, in which the selling just
increased throughout the afternoon. Now,
for a while, it was looking like price
action would just chop in this range,
stay positive, but this clearly shows
that tech in general did not see as hard
selling pressure as the S&P 500.
Remember last chart, we had the close
making new lows of the intraday price
action, which would have been down here
for the Qs down at 715.57.
So, the meantime, despite the Qs being
down 0.08%,
tech did lift the markets or keep them
elevated for other selling that could
hit the markets later on. But right now,
the Qs are saved, putting in 2 days of
consolidation after this 3-day bounce
that we've seen. We'll see if that
pressure starts bleeding into tomorrow,
where we could see some downside with
the near-term support being this high
pivot at $712.50.
Next up into the SMH. Now, this is
really where the story is, guys, and
I've told you guys this for a long time.
The SMH, the semis, they lead the way.
They illustrate how much risk-on
appetite there is in the growth sector
with these semiconductors, especially
with this AI data center build-out. So,
let's Let's into this chart and really
break it down, all right? So, we see
here what we've got going on for any of
the new viewers, all right? We've got
the low
uh isolated down here from the April
2025 lows, and you can see we have an
inclining parallel channel that
encapsulated most all of that price
action until we deviated here in March
and then ripped right through the top
end of it. And you can see over the last
few dips, we keep coming back down into
this parallel channel. Now, the last 3
days have taken us straight through the
top of the parallel. On Friday, we
paused, sold off at the once we reached
the top. Now, today, we gapped up over
it, allowing more space overhead to run,
very similar to what occurred here back
on August 17th. And notice what happens
when I flip on the daily moving
averages, we also have a very similar
situation. Price gapped up over this
daily 50 moving average in blue, much
like what it did back here. But, the
following day sold off back under this
declining trendline, uh not securing and
confirming a breakout. So, we're in a
very, as I said, similar scenario here.
One candle closing up above this
inclining parallel channel. Will we
follow that up tomorrow? Well, history
shows us we likely will not and likely
see a rejection from this breakout. But,
that's something I'm monitoring very
closely. I've been talking ever since
this decline that the markets will
likely get into more near-term bullish
uh sentiment if and when we start
putting in daily closes above this 50
moving average on the SMH specifically.
You can see here we closed basically
right at that 50 moving average.
Tomorrow, do we extend up above today's
candle? We'll have to see. That then
would lead more towards bullish activity
leading through next week, which is the
FOMC. So, all of this ties together with
the CPI and the PPI data. I'm
anticipating, since we have that
overhanging the markets, we likely won't
get any sort of confirmation of a
breakout until we get past Friday with
that inflation data. We'll see where the
markets take us in the coming days, but
guys, right into the 10-year yield we
go. Look at the high pivot of today,
4.812%
bubbling up against this resistance
level, now putting in some bullish
consolidation. Now, notice last time we
made a leg higher on the 10-year, we had
four nice days pushing up, but then we
declined the following three and
maintained this range. That's kind of
what we're trying to do here on the
10-year from what it sees or what I see.
We have one, two, three, four, five
green candles up and extra green candle
from what occurred back here and since
sideways consolidation. Look where all
of these daily candles of these four
candles have closed, all within this one
September 1st candle, telling you
putting in consolidation, trying to
build momentum to break through this
resistance level of 4.809%
and if we do that, guys, next stop, 5%
coming in line with this previous pivot
right here on the charts all dating all
the way back here into 2023 and you can
see 5.021%.
If and when we start getting above
in the coming days as that likely will
spill into more selling in the markets
uh or at least limiting some of the
rally attempts on these charts. All
right, next up into gold. With the
higher yields, gold did see some
pressure today down 1.58%
coming very close to the support zone at
$4,333.
I remind you we already hit this level.
The more that we continue to hit support
ranges, the likelihood increases for a
break. Now, keep in mind the bottom of
this parallel is at $4,297.
That's the level I'm watching for a
break. If that occurs, then we're coming
down further on the chart of gold. And
to remind and show any new viewers, you
can see here we've been caught in this
inclining parallel channel on gold since
April 2025. Since then, we've put in a
beautiful weekly topping tail, giving us
insight that the run on gold was near
over. Even gave us a beautiful retrace
there, too, allowing those folks to then
sell that gold and get ready for the
opportunity to buy. So far, we've had a
great bounce after breaching the lower
range of this parallel. The job here for
gold now is to hold this level, $4,300.
That's what bulls want to see. If and
when that breaks, then we're looking for
more downside in gold. I still was
waiting for a Goldilocks zone, no no pun
intended, being right down here at
3,500, the previous pivot high back in
April. That would be my honey spot, uh
golden zone to buy gold if and when we
can break that parallel channel. So, at
least stack away some capital, be ready
in case that does occur. Next up into
silver. Silver doing similar uh price
action as gold, but remaining slightly
stronger, only down 0.8% on the day. We
see here we did come down recently,
catch support off of this trend line.
So, that's the area near term for
support to the downside, $63.26.
To the upside, $67.99.
The more we hang out, especially in this
lower range, if price action starts
pulling down a little further on the
chart, this would be a little bit more
bearish. This still is all inside bar
bearish price action, but it's starting
increasing probabilities of moving
higher the more days we close in the
upper range of this recent low on the
chart of silver. So, we'll check back
there tomorrow. I'm still anticipating
silver to come down lower, and this is
just a near term technical bounce,
giving us opportunity to pick up some
silver in the low 50s to even a pierce
of that $50 range.
Next up, we've got US oil, pushing
higher again today. Notice these 3 days
of pausing that went on that occurred
after a time count with an illustrated
daily candle that said, "Hey, look,
we're going to pause at least for a few
days." Wasn't enough to get me in short
on US oil, but it was a signal that at
least you could start taking profit in
this range. Now, today with escalation
increasing, we're now pushing above the
recent pivots from July, leaving us the
next major fib target at $98.30
for resistance. I have bumped up my
previous resistance of $96 and change
this previous pivot because we've
already come so close and yet now we're
starting to push through. The likelihood
of us pushing and breaching this pivot
is actually increasing for chance of
$98.30 to be tagged and to be the next
level of contention to move up on the
charts. Uh next up, nat gas had a pretty
decent down day today, down 1.94%, but
look, guys, it's all still maintaining
this consolidation after this near-term
breakout that occurred from a trend line
back from this pivot in April 8th. This
pivot, I've chosen this because this was
an area of contention when we tried to
go back up and then when we did get
above, this still was a spot of
contention before we accelerated up on
the chart, much like what occurred here.
So, this is clearly an area on the chart
that one needs to pay attention to.
Anything above near-term more bullish
activity above $2.90.
As a matter of fact, any sort of
pullback since this is a confirmed
breakout to this trend line are buying
opportunities for nat gas to eventually
continue higher. Now, guys, look too. We
can understand why price needs to cool
off a little bit. We were getting close
to overbought near-term on the RSI,
which as you see down here at the bottom
of the screen, becomes overbought
near-term with any value going over 70.
As you see here, price action on the RSI
got up to about 67 and 50. So, it was
getting overbought in due for some sort
of sideways chop, if not a little bit of
a pullback before we push up to the next
major level of resistance at $3.24.
All right, guys, into some stocks we go
and stocks that are on the verge of a
potential breakout even with the yields
pushing up. This is a little bit
peculiar, almost showing that
a near-term potential breakout on the
SMH, but keep in mind it has not been
confirmed yet. So, it can be confirmed
if a lot of these other charts start
showing positive momentum and breaking
out. Specifically right here on LITE,
notice we've got a declining trend line
generated from May 12th connected over
to this next major pivot on May 7th or
on August 17th, and today price action
pierced that range and have since now
retreated back down to close the day
basically right here on this declining
trend line. Now, so we haven't
officially closed above, but we are on
literally the warning track of closing
above and generating another potential
breakout for LITE. Now, should we close
above this trend line tomorrow, which is
at 977 and 60 cents, be looking for a
potential follow-through move with the
next resistance at 1038,
the 50% area of this parallel channel
that has been containing price largely
since October of 2025 lows that you see
on the chart. Interesting potential
breakout scenario, but once we get
through that 50, there's a lot of
resistance to with double top near 1087
dollars. So, LITE still has its work cut
out for it, but it literally is on the
warning track of a breakout. Same thing
with these other charts like a BE. Now,
BE as you see here, we've already broken
out. Look at this push, but this push be
could be near-term closer towards an
end. Look at the daily RSI at 69.3.
Notice the BE parallel as well,
connected and starting back here in
December of 2025. We ran straight into
the 50% area of that parallel today and
have since now pulled back ever so
slightly. So, this is a major level of
contention even though BE is added to
the S&P 500, which has really
kick-started this breakout scenario. So,
where can you get on the bandwagon if
you're wanting to trade BE and you've
missed this run? And say, you know what?
Like Nancy Pelosi, she did buy a whole
bunch of options contracts that do
expire next summer. So, she definitely
had some insight here and you want to
piggyback on that. Where can you get in?
Simply draw your Fibonacci retracement
sequence. And what I did here, guys, I
took it from the low on the chart back
here in July in 29th, and I took it up
to the most recent high that occurred
today. You can see here there's these
levels that get produced. The most
aggressive would be 253.98.
I normally am not a buyer of any 236
retrace. Instead, I wait for price to
come at least to the 382, which is down
here at $235.50.
Notice at the same price point, we also
have all these other previous candles of
consolidation,
the support level right here at 235. We
drop down to 220, and then these support
levels become even more evident with
these being high pivots before price
broke down and then eventually broke
back higher. So, this 235 down to 220
and certainly gets that low, but that
would be the support area to buy for
returning momentum once this overbought
scenario on the daily chart plays out.
Uh next chart up with Intel, much like
on LITE, on the verge of a potential
breakout. Now, notice price action
pierced this inclining or declining
trend line today and pulled back ever so
slightly to close under 105, but we're
knocking on the door for a potential
breakout. So, watch tomorrow at 105.60.
We get a breakout, we need a confirming
push, then any pullbacks down to this
trend line can be a buying opportunity
for the resumption of upward movement on
this chart. You can see over here as
well on SNDK, right on the verge of a
potential breakout. Look at this. This
is also inverse head and shoulders
pattern. Getting a daily close above
this trend line would certainly bode
well for the bulls on SNDK right at
$1,751
for tomorrow. If we get a close above
that, be watching. It could be on a
potential breakout move. Next stop
though for SNDK not that much higher for
resistance right around $1,900. That
does come in contact and actually in
essence is this gap fill zone right here
to 1915
on the chart. So right around 1900 to
1915 should be good near term resistance
on the chart there for SNDK. Lastly,
before we get into the last chart, let
me show AMD as well cuz AMD has had some
good news as well
elevating the stock up 5.9% today
initiating a near term breakout from
this pivot high that you see back here
in July of 20 22nd of this year. Now
notice, this is certainly a fantastic
move for AMD but we've got to clear
these pivots which also likely are going
to come in contact with this declining
trend line. This is the big one guys,
the one from the high on the chart
connected to the next major pivot. This
would be the major line for AMD to cross
to get into discussions for hitting the
brand new all time highs and that
level's at $523.40.
Already have a near term breakout here.
So we'll see if we get a follow up push
tomorrow. Close above today's candle
that would mean any sort of pullbacks
down to this declining trend line could
be a buying opportunity for us
eventually attack this larger declining
trend line. The one that I say is
larger, basically the one with more
strength and the one with more
of a difference maker for this chart
because it will actually propel it and
could propel it to brand new all time
high. So big big line to watch on the
sand there for AMD. Lastly, guys, into
Core Weave, very similar situation as
what you saw on the last chart of AMD.
We've got a series of breakouts that are
underway with Core Weave. You can see
here the first trend line, I did cut
through the first pivot. So, this is a
secondary breakout, if you will. You can
see price, we already broke out above
it, never confirmed. We had one day up,
never had a follow-through push and
close. Instead, look how fast price
reverse right back down and underneath
that declining trend line. Now, today,
great gap up above that trend line, push
higher, almost quite got to gap fill,
but we have a looming overhead
resistance not far away at $108.10.
This is the big one, guys. If we get
above that, then we could be talking
again, retesting near all-time highs up
here by this declining trend line. Not
quite all-time, but this is a very good
near-term breakout at hand at Core
Weave. Something that we could go up and
certainly test uh higher ground on this
chart. Got to get through this or
declining trend line at 108.17. That
then opens the doors for probabilities
and increases them to push up higher
into the 130 range on Core Weave. But,
great bounce occurring here on that
chart today. All right, guys, that wraps
up Trading the Close today. Don't forget
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Trading the Close, but can't wait to
deliver some heat with you, mainly data
that is going to be front and center for
everything we look at and analyze in the
charts this week. Thanks again for
watching, guys. Look forward to seeing
you tomorrow, right here on the charts.
Take care, folks.