My Trading Game Plan | September 8, 2026

[music]
>> My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. [music]
Logic and charts beat hypes and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same [music] techniques
that made me a multimillionaire. This is
my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, this is a short week, but it is
power packed. We've got CPI and PPI data
this week. That'll be on Wednesday, PPI
morning in the morning. Uh, excuse me,
on Thursday PPI in the morning, Friday
CPI. Now, the reason this is important
is we are coming up to the Federal
Reserve decision next week on the 16th,
which is a week from Wednesday, a week
from tomorrow. The Fed will either be
raising rates or keeping them the same.
Now, right now the Fed Watch Tool, let's
take a look at that. The Fed Watch Tool
currently shows that there's a 58.4%
chance that rates will be raised next
week. Now, after we get the PPI and CPI
data this week, that could change. So,
I'll be keeping you on alert. The
markets will be moving in real time
based on what the market is anticipating
the Federal Reserve to do. So, that's a
big one here, folks. There's no doubt
about it. That'll be something key that
I'm watching. Other big news for the
week, over the weekend we did see more
escalation in the Middle East between
the US and Iran. So, therefore oil this
morning is trading up slightly on the
day. If we take a look here, let's jump
over to the oil chart. And oil really,
to be fair, is only up slightly on the
day. We're looking at about a $1.35
gain, 1.5%.
Notice again, we're still into some very
key resistance on crude oil. See this
pivot high right here? If we take a
trend line and we draw it across, look
at how oil was above that level and then
ultimately again has pulled back below.
So you can see again in the overnight,
we popped as high as $94.73
on WTI crude, but it has backed off
coming back underneath that key pivot
high. So this is a very important level
to watch here, especially as the
midterms close in and really to be fair,
as the Fed decides what to do next week.
Because what we're seeing is if oil goes
up, the 10-year yield goes up. If the
oil trade is going higher, it's pushing
inflation higher and therefore the Fed
may be forced to react and raise rates
to combat that increase in inflation. So
really again, oil is instrumental in the
yields, which is instrumental in whether
or not the Fed raises rates next week.
All right, so let's take a look here at
the S&P futures. S&P futures are
slightly lower this morning. Notice when
oil was at its highs in the early
morning session this morning, we saw
futures at their lows. But as oil has
backed off, the S&P futures have inched
back up. That can also be seen by
looking at this. Look at this, guys.
As yields, which were initially higher
with oil, as oil has pulled back, the
yields on the 10-year have started to
slip just a little bit. We were above
4.8%
hammering on key resistance here.
Remember this resistance? We talked
about it last week. This key resistance
point, we were right up into it. It's
rejecting price again, which by the way,
is exactly what resistance is supposed
to do. Remember what I said last week,
folks, is that we respect resistance and
assume it rejects price. In this point,
it would be rejecting the 10-year yield
and forcing interest rates back down
until it is proven otherwise. And that's
really what we want to do. Most
investors and traders, they're always
trying to game it, meaning that they're
saying, "Oh, well, I'm sure it'll break
out because I'm positioned that way on a
stock or a crypto or a commodity or
whatever it may be." But in essence, you
make more money when you actually follow
the levels and assume they're the level
and either support or resistance until
proven otherwise. Then you can use your
tight stop, exit the trade, and even
flip the trade around to go in the
opposite direction. In the case of this,
this is telling me yields still should
come back in. Now, at some point, can
they break out? Absolutely. But again,
we've got to wait for that to happen
before assuming it will happen. All
right, very interesting stuff when you
go into psychology of human investors
and how we always we always kind of want
our book, right? So, if if I'm long XYZ
stock, then in general, I'm going to
have a natural emotional bias to forcing
that opinion on the market and just
assuming, "Oh, well, you know, I'm long,
so it'll break this resistance." But in
reality, that doesn't happen um more
often than not. And you got to we got to
understand that as investors. All right.
Uh the dollar today, real quick, the
dollar again, you could see the bear
flag formation here broke. We bounced.
Now, we're coming back in. The US dollar
remains on the weaker side here, coming
back in. You will have a little bit of
support right here at this previous low.
If that ends up breaking, next leg takes
us down on the DXY to about 9070
Excuse me, 9770.
Right here. See these little pivot lows?
In fact, what we can do is we can draw a
a zone here. You can see right through
here,
this is going to be your next support
level. Notice the pivot points here, we
broke out, we then came down. Once you
break out of resistance, what does it
become? All right? Classic question,
right? Q&A, I love this aspect where you
guys can answer at home. When you break
out from resistance, it becomes support,
right? On the other side. And so if we
look at the chart here, you see how
price comes back in, hits, bounces,
hits, bounces, and then goes even
higher. Well, guess what? If we break
short-term support at 9850 or so, you
would expect us to retest this level,
which until proven otherwise, is
technical support. All right? So again,
we'll watch for that. Now, let's go to
the daily chart of the S&P 500.
Remember, I have remained neutral to
bullish on this market overall. Why?
Because we're above the key trend line
here. Pivot high to pivot highs right
here. As long as you see a gap fill
right there as well. All in this area,
there's a ton of support. So as long as
we remain above 7570 on the S&P 500, I'm
going to maintain a bullish bias with
upside potentially to retest this orange
trend line, which like we did like we
discussed, that is going to be
resistance until proven otherwise. It
worked here, it worked here, and it
worked here. So who am I to say if we
come up there that it's not going to
work again. So ultimately, I'll be
watching, keeping a bullish bias on the
S&P. If we break 7570,
I go into neutral. This is what I would
call the neutral zone.
And it's a zone between this trend line
at 7570 and approximately 7400, where
again, we're kind of in no man's land.
We haven't broken major technical
support right here, but we also are
below the pivot line. So neutral. If it
gets below here, that's where you want
to be be very, very concerned. We should
all be concerned if that breaks, it
could predate a bigger, major sell-off
in the markets. Okay? All right, let's
continue on here, folks. As we go in, we
looked at oil, we looked at the 10-year
yield. I do want to cover the
commodities and Bitcoin, but before we
do that, let's jump into some stocks.
Today, Novartis is making a major move,
but with major moves, you guys know what
I say. With major moves come major
opportunities. So, first thing I do, I
say, "Wow, NVS dropping 12%." That's the
biggest one-day drop since March of
2020. So, think about that. Going back
to COVID. Now, when something drops
outside of its normalized range, it
means emotion starts to take over. And
for those of us that use logic, data,
and charts, which is what Verified
Investing is all about, to decipher
that, then it gives us an opportunity.
We look for where emotion will be at its
height, where price will hit support,
and we look at an opportunity here to go
long. Where is that level? Simply put,
$133.
Right now, we're trading at 139. So,
it's only $6 away on a stock that is
dropping precipitously already,
basically down $20, over $20 on the
morning session. Notice what we have
here. We have a major pivot high here.
We then tagged it again, we then tagged
it again, and we finally broke out, and
it led to our big run up. Remember, when
resistance breaks, what does it become?
Technical support, right? In addition,
you always want multiple factors, right?
So, factors are the lifeblood of a
profitable investor or trader. Remember
that. Now, as you're coming in, you're
looking at your second factor here. What
is it? Start your fib at this low. All
right, So, right here, this this zone
right here, and we drag our fib up and I
When I say fib, by the way, I mean
Fibonacci. Fibonacci retrace tool.
Drag it up to this all-time high up
here.
And this is actually the 50% retrace
level. Now, again, is there any
guarantee that price will stop here? The
answer is no. There's no such thing as a
guarantee in any investment that any of
us ever makes, all right? Unless you
have inside information or something
that I do not have. But, two factors at
a major price point, that's good enough
for probably a 75% success rate
opportunity. So, that's what I'm
watching for on NVS. Beautiful 133 level
if it comes in there. I will be keeping
an eye for a potential swing trade
opportunity. All right, looking at a few
other stocks. Oracle,
>> [clears throat]
>> excuse me. Oracle is up this morning in
the pre-market. Now, again, Oracle kind
of just getting the buzz a lot of the AI
stocks, the semiconductors, the data
center stocks, hyperscalers are catching
bids. We're seeing Bloom Energy, which
is on the energy side of the AI
infrastructure buildout. A lot of these
stocks are getting hot again. And I do
think that in September, we could be
looking at another push up in those
semiconductor stocks, all right? Micron,
I think it goes high as 1150. That's
only about $100 away at this point. But,
it very well, based on chart analysis,
could be making a move up. Uh Oracle,
interestingly enough, they report
earnings after the bell later this week.
So, the stock is seeing some front
running on that in anticipation that
it's going to be good news. We'll see
later this week if it is, but the stock
again in the pre-market, you could see
again trending sharply higher here, now
trading at near 168 after closing at
150, just below 159. Now, on a technical
analysis basis, where am I going to be
eyeing this if it comes into resistance?
Take a look at this. Look at these pivot
lows right here. You have one pivot low,
two pivot low, three pivot lows right
around 180. So again, just to show you
guys, I don't know if you can see it
here, but the low of this candle right
here, this area, this area. So you you
hit it, bounced, hit it, big bounce, hit
it again, bounced, and broke. So
remember, support breaks, what does it
become?
It becomes resistance. Therefore, if
price rallies here, we would assume
there would be some resistance around
179 to 180. Now, I do like to do my
fibs, so we can do our fibs. I haven't
done this yet. Does it align? And lo and
behold, you got your 50% retrace right
in that same zone at 182. So that tells
me that price maybe it doesn't get there
ahead of earnings, but if it pops on
earnings, that would be a potential
resistance, at least resistance number
one. I also see a gap fill up here at
around 200, which could be eventually
filled as well. But this will be the
level I zone in on later this week.
Next, we go to Apple. Apple today is
trending a little bit lower. So Apple
had a big drop on Friday, continuing to
drop today. Now, the thing to realize
about Apple is tomorrow they have their
big unveiling event. Now, this is going
to be the first big unveiling of new
gadgets or products that Apple will be
doing since Tim Cook just left. So this
is a big one. Now, if you look at the
price action, the markets so far are not
buying the rumor, right? Oftentimes,
you'll see Apple trend up into an
unveiling and then sell off afterwards.
Kind of working the opposite here. Now,
that could work in the advantage of the
stock, meaning that if it continues to
sell today into tomorrow's unveiling, we
might see a bounce back. Now, Apple's
been kind of lambasted because they have
not really attacked the AI action. Uh
Siri is still kind of their thing, which
is like kind of like if you got the
Stone Age version of AI, that would be
the Stone Age version. When there's so
many better things out there. The
question is, can they unveil the right
things? Now, on a technical analysis
basis, we go to our daily chart. The
first thing that I see that I don't like
is that you have a bigger macro bear
flag. Now, granted, interestingly
enough, there's a gap here that has not
been filled and a gap here that has not
been filled. So, we could still go up a
little bit more, maybe on this news.
But, ultimately, this pattern, as long
as we don't take out this high here,
then this pattern is net bearish
overall. So, let me just rephrase what
I'm saying here. I'm saying that if they
if they do unveil something exciting,
price could rally here or maybe even
here, but as long as you don't take out
this high, that is a shortable swing
trade opportunity for further downside
based on the charts. So, again, not too
shabby going into this. We'll see, but
again, any sort of rally into these gap
fills with this pattern. You guys might
maybe you don't know the patterns. I
know a lot of new people tune in every
single day. So, I like to do a little
bit of teaching and I've done that with
support resistance. But, with flag
patterns, it's important, right? So, a
flag pattern is usually a pretty sudden
drop, and then you look for that inside
bar kind of consolidation. Essentially,
this is This drop is This is the
digestion of that move, and more often
than not, it resolves itself to the
downside. So, you could see, sharp drop,
inside bar consolidation. Maybe it goes
a little higher, and then we would
expect another leg down on Apple. So,
just something to keep an eye on there
as we continue through. Let's jump into
gold. Gold today, let me get rid of that
sidebar there.
Basically down slightly. Gold to me is
in no man's land. What do I mean by
that? Well, basically we we broke out of
the descending trend line. Let's go take
a look at that. That was here, right? So
this descending trend line, there was
your breakout. Boom, big pop. We came
up, we hit the ascending trend line. It
rejected price. We came down to this
short-term support and we got a bounce.
Now again, this has been hit and this
has been hit. Basically as an investor,
I'm now watching well, which way does it
go? Does it break out or does it break
down? And I just have to wait. Sometimes
you just have to wait for the chart to
give you enough information to make an
educated probability-based decision one
way or the other. So again, keep that on
your radar. Silver, let's look at silver
here. Silver is eking out a small gain,
same thing. Tags support, here's
resistance. Which way does it ultimately
break? Time will tell, but right now
price on silver is higher. We looked at
oil earlier, let's look at nat gas. Nat
gas was up a little earlier and
basically flat to negative now, but
continues to be above my pivot line, so
I remain bullish on natural gas. Lastly,
Bitcoin here guys, Bitcoin is dropping
again today. This is a key level right
around 77,000
or just below. That is a level. If we
break that, I would be concerned we're
going to do a bigger retrace. As long as
we hold in this range, we could be
setting up for another breakout. So kind
of a wait and see as well. We haven't
broken, so the pattern is still intact.
You have major resistance up here, but
price is just chopping through. Now,
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have a wonderful rest of your day, and
I'll see you soon. Take care.