Trading The Close | September 9, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik. Now today
guys, we actually had a mixed bag in the
marketplace. We had the S&P 500 down
nearly half a percent. The Qs were about
flat, but the SMH actually was positive
on the day. This all came on the back of
Basant announcing today at 11:00 that
he's going to increase the bond buybacks
from $4 billion
to $6 billion.
When apparently that didn't meet the
market's expectations as they were
actually angling for $10 billion
or more. So immediately the yield
spiked. Now keep in mind, this effort
being done by Basant is to do so to tame
the yields. And in doing so, it should
actually decrease the value of the
dollar. Well, the immediate reaction was
the opposite. Since that number came in
weaker, the dollar shot up, the 10-year
yield shot up, gold and silver
plummeted, but then they did recover by
the end of the day. So we're going to
get into the charts and take a look at
what's going on for movement today.
First off, the S&P 500 with the SPY
daily ETF. We did come down as I said
nearly half a percent. Finished off the
lows, which is encouraging here near
term because we did not come down and
hit this level of support $760.40.
Instead, we got down to 760
we got down to 760 and $94. Now let's
look at the 10-minute chart. You can see
we got very close to hitting that level
right after Basant's comments. Cuz today
we were really quiet. And the reason
we're quiet guys, we've got both PPI
data being released tomorrow at 8:30 and
then CPI on Friday at 8:30 in the
morning. Both before the markets open.
And you can see the market participants
really did not do anything. Yes, we
gapped down, but guys, we were literally
for about 2 hours in a straight sideways
consolidation. Then percent came out,
dropped the markets. But do you see here
the markets did bounce off their highs,
not getting back up to where percent
made that announcement. Still in bearish
consolidation. And guys, look back on
the chart. We can see that on the
10-minute chart. Nice downward move,
bearish chop, nice downward move,
bearish chop, all has led to the
following day with price action moving
lower. Now, we do know that tomorrow we
could have a good shot of hitting this
level of support at 760 and 40 cents.
We'll see if we actually remain above
that as we do have that PPI announcement
coming out pre-market. So, that will be
my near-term navigation for support. If
we open above, we should see some
near-term bounce on that. If we open
below, next stop will be this gap fill
here at 757 and 67 cents. Next up into
the Qs. As I said, they were somewhat
close to flat cuz they were only down
about .29%
creating a daily doji candle. We get
into the 10-minute chart, very similar
pattern. We did gap down, but we didn't
stay sideways. This illustrated
investors, regardless of what's going on
with inflation, regardless of what's
going on in the Middle East, investors
are defending tech. That clearly is
described and illustrated on this chart.
Whereas in S&P 500, we were going
sideways to that 11:00 announcement,
then we had a further downward move. As
you can see here, that's the main reason
the Qs weren't down as much as the S&P
500. Mainly, this that occurred earlier
before 11:00 pushing price up and
actually going green for a small portion
of the day. Uh where does that take us
on the daily? Well, still same thing
applies. Next near-term support is going
to be down here at this gap fill at 709
and 24 cents. The medium-term support
will come on this horizontal trend line
that is derived from this pivot low back
in May 19th that you see here on the
charts.
Uh that value, too, is at $695.25.
Uh, next up into the SMH. And guys, I
remind you, as I do nearly every day,
the SMH is my leading indicator. And
what were we looking for today? We were
looking for price to get up above
yesterday's highs and close. Well, we
didn't get that to accomplish on the
charts cleanly. As you see here is the
daily candle. Yesterday's high was up
here at $580.57.
We didn't even breach that level on
intraday trading. Now, the positive news
for SMH is that yes, we've gotten out of
this inclining parallel channel by
yesterday's price action. Today remained
above that parallel channel. So, that's
the positive element for the SMH in the
near term. Also illustrating what I
highlighted on the Qs, that we do have
folks willing to jump back into tech,
regardless of what the macro environment
is uh, going on in the market. So, the
other key element, guys, we didn't push
above nor confirm above this 50-day
moving average. We closed above it
yesterday. Basically closed slightly
above it today, but we didn't put in any
continuation move separating ourselves
from this key daily moving average. This
moving average does initiate buying
whenever price can get above it and push
above and maintain, institution step
behind and then start buying some of the
breakout. So, that's why I'm monitoring
this extremely closely. We are literally
on the edge of potential the SMH going
higher. As I've said before, these data
prints are going to mean a great deal
tomorrow as well as Friday leading into
the FOMC next week on what they're going
to do with rate hike. Speaking of hiking
rates, look at these rates up higher on
this chart with the 10-year yield. Now,
the resistance 4.809%
clearly has been the cap on the most
recent daily price action on the 10-year
yield. Not today. As when price action
was announced as far as the cents
announcement came out at 11:00, we were
bubbling up against that resistance line
and then accelerated higher. Now, we did
come down pretty nicely by 2:00, but
then gate got a bounce right back up to
4.841%.
So, where can this take us? If we
continue to put in another leg higher on
the yields, well, if we go back on the
chart, we see back here over 5% at 5.02%
dating back here to October of 2023.
We've already eclipsed the previous
highs that occurred 25 as well as 24,
but now we're talking about the 23
uh pivot that occurred at towards the
end of the year is the next destination.
That's a long way away, guys, and this
could be uh you know, just starting to
get moving up there. We'll see if we put
in some more base consolidation, but
likely should have some insight
tomorrow. And what I I want to bring up,
too, just to relate for the dollar. Now,
guys, the dollar with this sort of
manipulation to the yields, it should be
going down, okay? The problem with that,
guys, is that the dollar going down is
an inflationary uh result. So,
basically, we're trying to tame the
yields near term, which could cause
inflation to spike with the weaker
dollar, which then would
actually increase the opportunities and
chances that the Fed will hike rates
because inflation is out of control. So,
this is a very delicate balance that the
US government is doing. Now, we flip to
the 10-minute chart and we see here
right at 11:00. Main reason I'm showing
you the US dollar index is because that
$6 billion figure was not enough. The
markets priced in more, and I can
recognize that by what happened with the
dollar. That sort of announcement should
have pushed the dollar down lower.
That's what happened before when Besen
announced this sort of intervention here
in August. We had the dollar plummet.
Now, this was um the Japanese uh yen
carry trade involvement, but this was
when Besen announced that we were going
to buy double the buybacks. We didn't
get that sort of move with the dollar,
which said that the market's already
priced that in. The dollar in fact
bounced off of that news and pushed up
higher. So, it's interesting the efforts
that are being made by the government
aren't necessarily hitting the market,
at least for now, in the markets. We'll
see how this develops later on. Next on
into gold, guys. Now, gold also, with
the dollar popping, you can see here
gold saw some decent selling on the
10-minute chart right at 11:00. Made a
nice recovery rally, but ended up fading
towards the end of the day. Again,
higher yields putting pressure on gold.
But, the good thing for gold is still
remaining above this key level of
support, $4,333,
followed by this bottom rail of the
lower end of the parallel channel,
$4,305.
Next up, silver did a very similar
occurrence here on this chart. Notice
here with that 10-minute chart, big huge
plunge. Before, we were actually
bubbling up. I even commented in the
live day trading room. This sort of pri-
price action, 10-minute candles moves
up, sideways chop, next leg up, sideways
chop, next leg up. If we could base on
here, we actually had a good shot of
remaining up above $68, but percent came
out, ruined that story with the big sell
on silver, a return back up to the
pivots, and a decent sell. This shows
that there's more interest in silver
compared to gold, at least for the near
term from this current price point where
we're at in silver. But, what do we see
here? This is downward move, bearish
consolidation. That all implies we
should be going lower on the charts of
silver. And just in the near term, we're
holding up pretty well away from that
low, but near medium term, this is all
just a little bit of bearish
consolidation on the chart, continuing
to get rejected by the $67.99
level. Next up into US oil. Now, a
couple things to go over here on US oil,
folks. US oil continued to surge higher,
up 2.67%.
That's off increased conflicts going on
over there in the Middle East. Next
resistance, 68 or for me, $98.30.
We also highlighted this for any of the
new viewers. This is something I go over
nearly daily on my charts. And why do I
do this? It's because it's a very, very
powerful signal. These breakout
retraces, they give you the opportunity
to be late to the dance, be late to the
prom, and get the best out of it as you
can. So, what am I talking about? Right
here that occurred on US oil. A
declining trend line from pivot to
pivot. We had an attempted breakout,
failed, got rejected here, another level
of rejection, then finally broke out,
got some extension away from that trend
line. Look at that retrace and bounce
play. That's where you get the most
money out of this move. That beautiful
retrace, taking profit for investors
that saw this breakout, but then other
investors wanted back in, propelling the
price up. Now, let's get rid of this
trend line cuz we already illustrated
that strength. Let me show you something
else. We've got another potential um
break on hand with US oil. We have a big
left shoulder, a head, and a big right
shoulder on the charts. Now, the
measured move of this inverse head and
shoulders takes us precisely to this
declining trend line at $116.52.
What I'm seeing on this chart of US oil
is that the conflict in the Middle East
is not going to be ending anytime soon.
Now, yes, we can have failed patterns
with price breakdown underneath this
neckline, but with this triggered
pattern, we do and are targeting a high
probability chance of US oil pushing up
to 116 on the charts in the near term.
So, be mindful of that. That should put
pressure on the rest of the markets.
That should put pressure on inflation,
which will likely cause the Fed to make
a pretty tough decision. All right, next
up into nat gas. Now, nat gas, the other
end of the spectrum, heading down on the
charts. And most importantly, putting in
a daily close now underneath this key
level that has separated its near-term
breakout. This is one candle down. Now,
one of the reasons inventories came in
robust. We We are remaining with high
levels of nat gas. Plus, the weather's
not cooling off as much quickly enough
to have as high demand for nat gas. So,
let's see if this is just one candle or
if this is going to be a near-term break
of this trend line. I still am a bull on
nat gas and anticipating nat gas to
eventually tag this declining trend
line. It's just how we navigate the
near-term downturns on nat gas before we
see a continuing bounce. Now, keep in
mind, as I said, one candle under that
doesn't confirm a breakdown much like I
described on US oil. You need price when
it's breaking out to extend away from
that line. When we're breaking down, the
same thing. Otherwise, we can just
follow up the next day, break right back
above because this is the level of
support with price coming from above, it
should provide a bounce today, did not
give that opportunity.
All right, next up into Meta, some
stocks in the news, guys. Now, this is
big. Meta announced yesterday that they
rolled out Muse. You may be saying,
"What is Muse?" Well, Muse is an AI
agent platform and service on Meta. You
may also say, "Well, whoa, what is
that?" Well, basically, what it is is an
assistant that you can program and tell
to reply to emails, navigate websites,
make uh verified purchases. You can even
use, say, Instagram Instagram and other
apps to forward that recipe on Instagram
and through Meta and through Muse and
put that straight on your grocery list.
There's a lot of cool things that can
happen with these AI agents. The way I
like to think of it, they're more or
less like mini assistants that you don't
have to pay unless you run too many
tokens, which they do have a paid
service for. Interesting how AI rolled
this out or Meta did and the AI agents
and initially jumped into monetization.
That's good on their part and investors
rejoice with that, too, pushing the
price up on Meta up over 6.5% today. So,
you can see here Meta on the
longer-range time frame, we're in an
inclining parallel channel or we were
until today we had price actually just
jump right back in. We were trading
underneath that range, potentially on
the verge of a breakdown, but you see
ever since this low here in August 20th,
we have just been straight up on the
charts with Meta, now regaining this
parallel channel. A very bullish move
for Meta today. Now, for Meta, the work
is not over to the upside. You see here
clearly tomorrow at 663 and 18 cents,
we've got a declining trend line, one
that would be hit for the fourth time if
we can get back above there, but if we
do so and close mainly above today's
highs, that increases probabilities that
Meta can hold this parallel channel and
potentially consolidate for a few days
before it breaks to go higher. The next
destination will be this pivot high at
68606, but as I've described, we've got
a few things to happen before that
becomes a possibility there for Meta. Uh
next up, and guys, we'll get into some
education on these next three charts,
breaking these charts down using one of
my favorite indicators and tools that I
use every single day. It's the Fibonacci
sequence retrace. This is one that
everybody should have access to as long
as they've got brokerages that allows
them to view charts with candlestick
charts. All right, so,
let's get into this chart. First off
with Amazon, you can see here Amazon
today unfortunately put in a very
significant close. It closed in the
lower 50% of this parallel channel. Now,
remind you for any other new viewers,
this parallel dates all the way back
here to January of 2023. We've navigated
to the up, to the bottom, and back and
forth, all remaining within this
inclining parallel channel. Now, as I
stated today, you can see price action
dropped, closed in the lower range of
this 50%, an area in which price had
been trying to hold ever since price got
close to it here on August 27th,
breached, but never confirmed with a
continuing move down lower, instead
tried to remain above, and then now is
moving right back down on the chart.
We'll watch closely tomorrow for a move
lower under today's low. If so, that
should kick saw kick off some more
selling, which then could lead us to a
buying opportunity here on the chart of
Amazon. And you may say, "All right,
well, where is that level, Drew?" All
right, so grab that fib tool. Let's go
to the most recent pivot low. I'm going
to take it up to the pivot high, and
voila, right there, 786 fib retrace,
$239.22
cents. If we get some continued selling
pressure down here on the chart, that
would come right into contact with this
inclining trend line, creating a
two-factor level of support that
increases the odds of a chance for a
potential bounce. Now, Amazon would have
to see some significant selling to get
down to that level, but just keep this
trend line drawn as if that can line up
with another level of gap fill support,
that two can be a two-factor level for
at least an intraday bounce. Say we get
a bounce here, and price comes down into
the 245 region right on the inclining
trend line, that two-factor level of
support should give you some profits, at
least intraday, if not, could propel the
stock all the way back up to this 50%
area of the parallel channel. But guys,
this is very easy to do. I can draw
this, and then most importantly, after
you draw these, you can draw these on
any one of these pivots, go back and
learn. Study these fibs. They happen
over and over and over again on these
charts. This is one of the most
redundant, repetitive, successful tools
you can have as long as you know how to
utilize it. want to learn more, guys, we
put out so many educational courses
about this, many of which are free, some
of which we go into detail with more uh
insight, and those are our paid
educational courses. I've got Mastering
the Overnight Trade, the Sleeper Hold,
the Trader's Core, great for beginner to
intermediate trading. In any way that
you have cut it, you can learn from
these simple tools. Uh simplify your
thought process, help yourself out, get
to the winning side of your next trade.
Back into the charts, more education
here on Pinterest. Guys, look at this.
Look at this RSI down here at the bottom
of the chart. A nasty 23.15
daily RSIs. We have anything under 30 is
considered oversold near term, and it
doesn't take a rocket scientist to
realize that with continuous red candles
here on the chart. And we hit a key
level of support today. Now, first
though, before I get to that, I want to
show you what's going on in the larger
time frame. You can see I've got a pivot
high back in September of last year
drawn down to the next pivot, and that
distinguished the location in which
price broke out. You can see I'll get
rid of this RSI, zoom it out a little
bit more. When we try to attempt this
breakout, look at the consolidation that
needed to take place before we
eventually broke out. Now, when price
breaks out, what does it like to do? It
likes to retrace to this trend line and
bounce. Now, this is a sharp declining
trend line, one of which that may be
very hard for it to get hit considering
how oversold it is at least now in the
near term. So, very much like last
chart, what do I do? Pull up my fib
retracement tools, take it from the most
recent low to the most recent high, and
boom, you see this level, the 618 fib
retrace, $18.38.
This fib retrace is one of the strongest
retrace levels, specifically if we
haven't seen any other bounces on these
other levels before, and guys, we
haven't. So, this area very well could
be the location of the bounce, but if
you're a conservative trader, you can
wait for price, and if it plunges over
the next couple days to touch and get
into the 786, which would be much closer
to this declining trend line.
Nonetheless, you could also spread it
out, enter a little bit here, pick up a
little bit here, get ready for a
technical bounce. A bounce that could,
as long as it gets legs and Pins has
some good fundamental news, could go
back up and attack this inclining trend
line. That would be one heck of a
recovery, but more or less, It certainly
could attempt to come back up and fill
this gap. Uh we'll see though down the
road how well pins does on this bounce.
Uh next up we've got Apple. Now, forgive
me, I've already got my fib tools on
here illustrating these pivot lows and
highs in which we're going to illustrate
where price can eventually go, a price
level that I will be interested in
buying. So, let's get back to the weekly
time frame so I can really show you
what's going on on this chart. You see
here we did breach the top range of this
parallel channel and we'll go back and
show you where that began back in
January of 2023 and in doing so after
breaking above, look at this nasty
weekly red candle and the price action
that's followed since. This has all been
bearish consolidation right on top of
this parallel channel. Now, let's flip
back on these fib retracement tools and
you can see what I'm seeing here on
Apple. We've got a very nice potential
setup right here under $300, the 618
back to the strongest fib retracement
level. Why do I pick this level? Because
look back here in December 1st of 2025,
a previous pivot high that occurred at
$288.62.
This fib retracement level is about $5
away from that level. Both of those
combined tell me if we see more further
selling pressure, we're likely coming
down to this level and could have a
decent bounce. The third
uh piece of information that tells me
that we could come down to this level,
well, bear flags produced measured
moves, folks. And what do measured moves
give us? They give us a target where
price could go and you could see what
I've just drawn here, that measured move
can take price down to 286. Now, I've
got three things on this chart telling
me price can go down here into this
pocket. If price plunges down into here,
that would be even better as we usually
see the biggest bounces occur from the
sharpest moves to the downside. So, be
mindful, be watching price action under
$300 on Apple. If we do eventually break
back within this parallel channel that
value is at $309.55.
Key measured move target down here at
$286.50.
All right, guys, that wraps up Trading
the Close. Thank you guys so much for
watching and tuning in today. Don't
forget to like and subscribe to the
video. Send this out to your friends and
family so they too can learn some TA on
the charts. Be ready for that Apple
trade when eventually it could fall down
into a nice near-term swing trade. All
right, guys, can't wait for tomorrow as
we said we're going to have some
inflation data for you to cover in the
afternoon and to prep for Friday. Until
then, have a fantastic day and we'll see
you next time right here on the charts,
guys. Take care.
>> [snorts]