My Trading Game Plan | September 10, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader [music] until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the [music] same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
major spike in oil just in the last
hour. Yields pushing towards 4.9% on the
10-year. All of this coming out of the
Middle East as the Houthis are getting
more involved, attacking Saudi Arabia,
pushing uh or shooting missiles at
refineries there and potentially
blocking the Red Sea. So all of a
sudden, WTI crude now north of $100 a
barrel just in the last hour or so,
gaining as much as $3 per barrel. And we
are seeing again $100 plus on Brent
crude as well. So this is a big deal
here, folks. The futures are getting
pummeled since the oil spike. We are now
down, I think, over half a percent on
the S&P. We'll take a look at it. We did
get PPI data this morning. That was
going to be the main feature right here
on my trading game plan. But ultimately,
the oil move and the yield move took
precedence and that's what's creating
the move this morning. Now PPI data came
in basically in line with estimates. The
month overmonth headline was.3%.
The core actually the headline was 4%
but the core was expected to be.3 and
came in at 0.2. are slightly better on
the core number. Remember core PPI
producer price index removes inflation
or I should say removes oil and gas and
food and energy. And ultimately what we
see here is that a slightly better
number as of now is not pushing the odds
of a Fed rate hold to the to the
headline portion. Meaning in other
words, the odds of a Fed rate hike are
actually climbing this morning for next
week. And that is because oil is going
up causing the 10-year yield to go up.
So, we're going to look at all of this.
Let's first start out with this chart
here or this infographic. This is the
Fed watch tool. There is now a 70%
chance of a Fed hike next week. Now, the
only thing that could change that would
be a big drop in oil, which would bring
yields down, but more importantly, the
CPI data tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m.
Eastern time. So right now PPI is behind
us. The last big data point before the
Fed next week is the CPI data tomorrow.
That is the last chance for the Fed to
essentially have a reason to not hike
rates right now with oil going up. It's
a hard sell not to to hike these rates.
All right, let's look at the charts
here. This is the S&P futures. Notice we
were kind of going up a little in the
overnight, down a little bit in the
early morning, and then all of a sudden
the futures fell off a cliff. And this
is directly related to this 10-minute
spike up in crude oil. Crude oil going
from basically
$97 a barrel to almost $101 a barrel in
essentially one hour's time. Each of
these candles is 10 minutes long. huge
move up in oil and we saw obviously the
S&P futures falling and then you flip
over to the 10-year yield and look at
what the 10-year yield is doing. We are
now above 4.9%
on the 10-year interest rate. Now, if we
flip to the daily chart, look at
yesterday. We closed above the key
breakout point. So, there you go. We
broke out and now continuation today.
Where is this heading? likely to 5%
on the 10-year yield and that will be
the major pivot high, the high of major
highs going back to October of 2023.
Now, you break that and the markets are
really going to start to panic. Now,
right now, we are seeing again a little
bit of panic coming in because it's a
dramatic pop in the 10-year yield. We're
up right now about seven basis points
just today. It's a big breakout. People
like me are seeing that the chart is
showing us we could be headed to 5%
within a day or two. All of these
factors are concerning individuals,
inclusive of oil's rally here to the
upside. Taking a look at the daily chart
on oil, look at this move on crude oil
over the last two trading weeks. If we
do a quick measurement here from this
low on August 26th to today's high, a
26%
move on crude oil. That's a mammoth
move, folk folks. And again, what I'm
seeing now is we'll see where we close
today, but ultimately the next big
resistance is around $104 a barrel right
here. So let's watch it closely and see
where that is headed. But again, this is
going to put pressure obviously on the
US economy, more importantly on
inflation. And we know here in the US
and really abroad, inflation is becoming
more and more of an issue. Not just
energy and food prices, but it filters
through. Remember all those trucks that
are bringing goods, all those Amazon
deliveries, they're mostly running on
fuel and even diesel. Diesel is at
massive move. it's it's at basically
all-time highs essentially. I mean,
we're at those type of levels. So, all
of that cost eventually gets passed back
through to the consumer with higher
prices across the board. All right, so
let's go through some bigger charts
here. S&P futures again right around the
lows. I want to flip over to the daily
chart. Now, this is where it's going to
get interesting on the S&P daily because
ultimately we're still above this key
level. And let's be fair, you know,
10-year yields at 4.92%
and essentially we're down, if you
factor in today's open, we're down about
2.8%
from the all-time highs. In addition,
oil is at $100 a barrel. And let me
repeat this, we're down 2.8% off
all-time highs. So, as long as this
technical level works and holds, I'm
going to maintain my S&P bullish bias.
We have the line in the sand. We know
where it will flip. That's what a
technician and data dependent trader
does. So, right here, we're watching
this 7570
to 7575 level on the S&P 500 major pivot
high right through here. You can see
multiple tags of that support. As long
as we remain above this line, my bias
stays at bullish on the S&P. And I just
like to point this out is what's
fascinating about this is you can make a
case that this is actually a bull flag
formation. What do I mean by that? Well,
look at this. Look at this. A beautiful
parallel descending zone which actually
if you look at it from this perspective,
right? If we take a look and this is
your flag pole to the upside. Well, what
type of pattern is this? It's a bull
flag. So again, as long as we hold in
this portion of the pattern formation,
then I remain bullish. And in fact, I
likely will go shopping today, starting
to pick up some high quality names that
have been beaten down. A couple on my
list, I might be looking at something
like Google, which has pulled back
significantly. Apple, not so much,
because it had a lot of whipssaw on the
back of that big announcement where they
showed us their new foldable phone and
all of that stuff. But there's
definitely highquality names that I will
be on the lookout for. Now, are these
long-term investments for me? No.
They're literally short-term moves.
Assuming we hold this level on the S&P,
then I will be accumulating those names
on a swing trade basis. All right, so we
have our levels based on where the ES
futures are trading this morning. The
S&P futures down half a percent. So,
we're looking at essentially coming very
close to that S&P 500 level. Um, if we
go from a half percent drop from
yesterday's close, that would open us
right here a little bit above this key
level. Now, on a day trading basis, I
will tell you if we fall into this level
on the S&P, I will probably buy the S&P
as well. Now, for those of you that have
futures accounts, you can do that via
the S&P futures. For me, I don't trade
the futures. I focus on stocks and ETFs.
So, I'll look at a double ETF as a day
trade. if we come down to this level
right here on the S&P 500. Wow, what a
morning. And again, folks, like I said,
I figured I'd be talking about the PPI
data today and and it did. By the way,
the core came in fractionally better
than expected, but as we see the odds,
even though it was better than expected,
you would have said, "Okay, PPI core
better than expected, maybe the
probability of a Fed rate hike next week
would come down a little bit." It
actually went up. And again, I say that
because the oil price and yields are
basically ruling. Like the Fed cannot
just be like, "Oh, you know, who cares
about inflation and oil going up? We
won't we won't hike rates." They're
going to have to act. It's going to
force their hand potentially. Last
chance tomorrow is that CPI data point.
All right. So, let's get into a few
other things. We have our level on the
S&P futures. That looks like we might
tag it today. The dollar today. Let's
look at the US dollar. The dollar is
popping to the upside. My charts are
freezing for a split second here, but
that's okay. There we go. So, the
dollar, remember, yesterday came down
kissing short-term support. And with the
unrest in the Middle East continuing and
even getting worse, we are seeing a
flight to the reserve currency. Yes, the
dollar is still the reserve currency of
the world. So, it still sees money flow,
just not as much money flow into it.
What's fascinating here is we're not
seeing gold go up. Gold is actually
going down. So, a lot of times you would
say, "Oh, well, when fear comes into
play, maybe gold would be a recipient of
money flow, right? It's a safe haven
asset." But because the dollar is going
up and gold is priced in dollars and
yields are going up, it's actually
causing a pretty sharp selloff. Now,
remember in yesterday's game plan, I
highlighted to you guys, we had
potential head-and shoulder patterns
forming on gold and silver. And if they
break, I gave you the targets. Right
now, we're not breaking, but we're down
to those key trend lines. This is a
pivotal level. If you're a gold and
silver bull, you got to hold this level.
This is unbelievably important.
Otherwise, gold goes back to potentially
3,900 and silver back to 55 to $54 per
ounce on there as well. We'll look at
those charts in just a second here.
Let's do a quick check-in on oil. oil
remains here trading just above $100 a
barrel again as the Houthis continue to
escalate against Saudi Arabia
potentially blocking the Red Sea um from
transport which again when you can't get
through either passage that absolutely
is causing a issue with oil. All right,
10-year yield guys again look at this up
at 4.914%.
Here's your level to watch now. Do we
get up to that 5% handle? Um, again, all
of this on the backdrop of the midterm
elections that are now less than two
months away. And by the way, I don't
know if anyone heard last night, but the
president promised everyone if the
Republicans keep the house or win the
House, he'll give everyone $5,000. Now,
I'm not political in that way. I focus
on data, as you guys know. But I will
bring up one point. If you give $5,000
to every single person out there, the
debt, US debt would jump $1 trillion
plus dollars. So again, essentially,
think about it like this. You're paying
for it one way or the other. It's either
through taxes because we are responsible
for the US debt, all right? Or devaluing
the dollars that you and I hold, which
means we're paying for it anyways. Um or
you know that he, you know, he you know,
basically the point is one way or the
other we're paying for it. There's no
such thing as free lunch. Um, you could
argue that people over the last 20 years
have had free lunch because the US has
run up this crazy deficit.
Unfortunately, for all the younger
generations, guess what? You're on the
hook for it. And that stinks. That
absolutely stinks and should not be the
case. All right, so let's continue on
here as we go through couple stocks in
motion, then we'll get to commodities.
AVAV was running up early on uh earnings
yesterday. The stock had been beaten
down pretty substantially, but
nonetheless, with the market drifting
lower, this is coming down just a bit.
Now, if we look at the daily chart, is
there any tradable level? Not really.
Again, you can see that there's a big
technical support right down here. So,
if it did go negative today, $10 lower.
There might be a day tradable level
here. Aside from that, there's I'm
definitely not looking to short this.
It's way too beaten down in the near
term. I mean, if it ever popped up here,
obviously, but it's it's not going to go
there that fast today. American Eagle
Outfitters is getting crushed. We are
seeing some of these retailers reporting
and this one is getting hammered, folks.
Absolutely annihilated. And look at the
drop here as we continue to see this
coming down. Um, if we go to our daily
charts, there is a really good level
that I'm eyeing. It's right here at 1365
or so. 1360. It's a former gap fill
right there. And if we stretch that out,
we can see that that line actually goes
back and right below it, there's a
couple major pivots. So, anywhere
between 1360, I would say, and 1320.
Major technical support on AEO. Um,
Macy's. Macy's also falling on earnings
this morning. The one level I'll be
watching here is the $20 even number.
You have this area right in here, right
around this area. You can see all of
these pivot points trying to break out.
Then it pulled back. Then it came up
right in here. Pulled back, then broke
out. This $20 level looks intriguing to
me. And then not to be outdone, but we
have big earnings after the close.
Basically, one big earnings report. We
do have Adobe. Adobe is not that big of
a company anymore. It's really lost a
lot of that market cap. It's still a
sizable company, but not like it used to
be. Adobe will report after the bell,
but the big one here is Oracle. Oracle
will report. This is going to be huge
for the AI buildout. the data centers,
the hypers scalers. This is a big one,
folks. Right now, trading lower today. I
have no good read on this going into
earnings. Um, if it pops, I could see it
going as high as around 180. There's a
big level at 180. If it drops, you might
see a move back down to 140. So,
basically, we're trading at 160. It it
tells you that it's basically a 50/50.
If it rallies sharply, I have my level.
If it drops sharply, I have my level.
But going into earnings, there is no
major bias that will enable me to make
money in that way. At least not without
gambling, right? I mean, listen, we can
all guess, but guessing is nothing
better than going to the casino and
again just hoping you hit blackjack or
you win your hand at blackjack, right?
We want to be if we're doing it and
we're using like when I'm trading my own
capital, I'm not gambling. All right?
Now, some people will call it gambling,
but the win record tells the tale. And
if you can win 70 75 80% of the time,
that's not gambling. That's probability
based assessment and playing the
probabilities. All right, couple other
things here. We got to go into gold.
Look at gold, guys. This is what I was
talking about yesterday. We have our
little head and shoulder pattern here.
Right here. Just like that. We are
retesting the neckline right through
here. If this breaks, basically, if we
get below 4,300, you have potential to
go all the way back down to this level
to 4,000 to 3,900 on gold. So, as I said
earlier, bulls must they must hold the
line here. Don't let this break
otherwise it opens a trap door. Now
there will be some support down around
4160 or so, but ultimately again the
head and shoulders measured move target
takes us down to that 39 to 4,000 level.
Same thing with silver here. Look at
silver. Here's your neckline slightly
ascending low pivot to low pivot. We
kissed it this morning on the big draw
down here. If this breaks, if we break
basically break 6370 and have a close
below there, it opens the door to move
down to 5975.
but ultimately potentially 55 down there
as well. So nasty day on the metals. Um
again remember head and shoulder
patterns are bearish but only if they
trigger. A lot of people have a
misconception about this and they say oh
look at the pattern it's got to go down.
Wrong. Only when it breaks does it
technically have the trigger effect that
then it strongly favors it. Um until
then it's it's an interesting pattern to
watch. you want to keep it on your watch
list, but it's not something that I
would be like, "Oh, this is a
no-brainer, right? It's not like that
overall." All right, couple other things
to go over here, guys. We looked at oil.
Let's check back in on oil, which
remains above $100 a barrel on WTI.
Incredible move over the last couple
weeks. The 10-year yield, I'm checking
in. Wow, look, the 10-year yield back to
the highs of the day at 4.922%.
only about really about eight basis
points away here from that 5% level.
Incredible. All right. Uh futures. Let's
quickly look at the futures before we
get into Bitcoin and NAC gas. Futures
remain down at their lows of the day
here. Almost down 6/10en of a percent.
Remember on the S&P folks, this is the
level toward watching here. This
75757550
level on the S&P looks like we'll open
just above that if we hold right here.
But we could sell very quickly into that
level. And like I said, I'd actually be
interested in day trading that level. Uh
and and like I said, picking up some
swing trades on the long side of
individual stocks. Bitcoin today, nasty
selloff. This could be the start of a
bigger breakdown. Watching this kind of
ascending parallel here. We were holding
into it. Lots of resistance up here.
Breaking to the downside. Watch first
the 76,200
level followed by 755.
You don't want to see 755 break. That
would be a new recent low over the last
couple weeks and could see some major
selling in it. In addition, I
highlighted Zcash just yesterday as a
major short opportunity on the back of
an ascending parallel hit right there.
Look at that. It literally touched that
level right there. right there and look
at the sell-off today ensuing already
down beautifully about race basically
it's down about 10% off of its highs
already incredible drop there and
honestly this likely is heading much
much lower extreme overbought from this
low here I think this was about 170%
gain on Zcash in terms of that move up
all right so keep an eye on that one but
again the chart is bearish even though
it's already pulled back significantly
natural gas had a nasty fall yesterday.
This broke the key bull level. It is now
in the neutral zone. So, just like the
S&P, this was your bullish area up here.
It was holding above. This down move now
takes us into our neutral zone. Still
not bearish. This would be your bearish
break like the S&P 500, but we'll have
to watch and see. Now, listen. Markets
are opening in 10 minutes. I've got to
get into my live day trading room, guys.
So, I've got to get going. But keep an
eye. This is huge. What's going on here?
Is the market going to hit the S&P major
level today? That's something I'm
watching. Where does the 10-year yield
top out? Do we hit 5% in the next day or
so? What is the Fed likely to do? I'm
going to keep an eye on the Fed watch
tool. Does it increase from 70% or pull
back? All of these key factors, guys,
inclusive of oil, we got to be
following. You guys have a great one.
Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll keep
you guys on the on the radar here and
I'll keep you posted. Take care.