The Weekly Wrap-up | September 11, 2026

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that count, wrapped up
with clarity [music] and precision. This
is a weekly wrap-up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey everybody, welcome to the Friday
weekly wrap-up. Happy Friday, by the
way. It is the weekend. Short week this
week, only four trading days, but wow,
what an action-packed week. Tons of
economic news setting up for the Federal
Reserve decision next Wednesday. And at
this stage, folks, it's looking like it
is a lock to raise rates by 25 basis
points. So, be ready for that next week.
The markets are largely pricing that in
already, so it probably won't have a
major impact, but the press conference
after where Kevin Walsh discusses
potential future hikes, that's going to
be the big factor. Now, this morning we
did get CPI data and that's what I mean
by that, right? So, we've seen oil rally
up all week long until the pullback
today. Sure, it hit my key4 104 level
and pulled back, but still it was a
tremendous move recently in oil and that
added inflation issues that really the
Fed has to come out and combat now. So
obviously we have escalation in the
Middle East continuing over the straight
of Hormuz. Now the Red Sea, now strikes
by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia, oil
facilities. All of this adding to the
turmoil that adds to inflation. Now
let's talk about the CPI report here
today. So CPI report coming out this
morning basically in line except for one
number that was hotter than expected.
Yesterday I discussed how if we had an
amazingly good acrosstheboard CPI report
maybe the Fed wouldn't have to hike.
That didn't happen. We got a inline
slightly hotter than expected CPI
report. You can see right there core CPI
coming in hotter than expected at 3%
versus the 2% anticipated. Every other
number was in line. It's done folks. the
Fed is going to have to hike next week
no matter what the president says. All
right, so that's number one. Now,
speaking of which, let's talk a little
bit about what the Fed or what the odds
are because this is pretty remarkable,
folks. The odds of a Fed rate hike next
Wednesday sit right now at 86.5%
chance. In Fed terms, that's essentially
a sure thing. That's as almost as good
as the the inside information that some
of our politicians trade off of. I mean,
that is that good. Now, again, how do we
play this? There's not really a major
way. But my point still remains is that
this is a lock for a raise next week.
And there's no major economic data. I
mean, the only thing that could maybe
sway is if the the price of oil gapped
sharply lower by like $20 next week on a
deal. Even then, it's likely the Fed
will be raising rates. All right. So, we
have a scenario here where next week we
have a two-day Fed meeting Tuesday and
Wednesday. The decisions out at 2:00.
Then at 2:30 there'll be a press
conference. Those are the main factors
that we need to watch next week. We're
kind of in this interim period now after
Oracle earnings. There's not going to be
major companies reporting until early
September when earning season kicks off
again and that's when we get the banks
to start things. Now, let's go to the
charts. The S&P had a good day today.
But I'll tell you before we look at the
charts, one thing that was so unique
about today is initially oil was down
sharply and the interest rate on the
10-year was also down. But throughout
the day, the interest rate began to
float up and actually ended higher to
the point now where we are so close to
that double top at 5%. I got to believe
that we're going to hit it as early as
Monday or Tuesday. Now the markets, this
is not a big move on interest rates to
get in there. What we then have to watch
is do we break it? If we break it and we
start making new highs, and I'm talking
about new highs since 2007
before the financial crisis on the
10-year yield, that's when markets are
going to start to panic. Now, I said I
was bullish on the S&P. That worked out
beautifully today. We'll have to see how
things go. So, let's jump into the
charts. The S&P 500 was up 86%. So, just
shy of 1% on the day. Remember, if
you've been following along in my daily
live game plans at 9:00 a.m. Monday
through Friday, we talked about how as
long as we hold this level on the S&P,
the bullish bias remains. Sure enough,
today a good gap up and it held most of
its gains today. And again, I would
remain bullish into next week. Even if
yields hit 5%, I would remain bullish as
long as the S&P does not close below
7570 or so on that chart on the chart
right in front of you. Now, if we do
break below that, this is the neutral
zone. This is where it's going to be
more of a gray area. Does the market
break out or does it recapture the
bullish stature? We'll have to watch and
see. But ultimately, if we get below
7,400, I think you break there. You know
where you go? Straight down 400 points
to this technical level on the S&P at
7,000. So again, we have our game plan.
We have our levels. That's part of being
a technical trader is that you know your
levels and you abide by your levels. You
follow the levels. All right? They
become your guide, not your hopes and
dreams, which most people, that's how
most people trade and invest. It's
literally datadriven and it gets rid of
all the hype that we experience, right?
Think about all the social media out
there bombarding us with Bitcoin's going
to a million by next year or other
people saying Bitcoin's going to zero.
Has it done either of those? The answer
is no. It's somewhere in between. But
social media blasts the emotional angle
to whichever person is willing to
listen. Same thing with mainstream media
to some extent with the narratives. The
charts are our closest thing to truth.
And that's why I follow them. It puts me
in a position to make the right decision
a majority of the time. Not all the
time, just a majority. All right. So,
let's take a look at what we saw today.
Take a look at the 10-year yield. This
was unique. Let's go to the 10-minut.
So, what we're looking at right now is
the daily chart. Each of these candles
is a day long. But what I want to do is
I want to go to the 10-minute chart.
This right here spells everything.
Overnight, the 10-year was falling
because oil was falling. Then we got
this the CPI data and oil dip, excuse
me, and the 10-year rate dipped even
more. And then slowly throughout the
course of the day, it recovered all the
way back up. When all was said and done,
you got a green candle, meaning the the
10-year yield was higher for the day,
closing at 4.7%.
just three basis points away from 5%.
Now, the reason why 5% is so important,
number one, it's an even number. So,
psychologically, it has an impact on us
all. But if you zoom out here and we go
all the way back to October of 2023,
that was our last pivot top. And again,
pivot tops are important in technical
analysis because you expect there to be
a little bit of resistance here. There's
such a thing as a double top. double
tops tend to reject price the initial
hit on that hit and that would be
potentially early next week if we run up
into it. Now, if we break that, I think
that's where people start to get scared.
That's where you start to see a market
that potentially can break into that
neutral zone on the S&P 500 here and
potentially break even lower. All right,
so watch that next week. Now, a big
factor here has been oil. Oil, folks,
here it is. You guys know yesterday, if
you followed me in my live broadcast in
the game plan, I talked about 104 being
resistance. We hit it and we pulled
back. Oil closing just above $100 a
barrel today. Now, I actually still
think next week it's going to come in
further. I have a feeling that towards
the end of the day, we did see in the
second half of the day oil inching back
up a little bit back above 100. My guess
is that's because shorts didn't want to
hold into the weekend and people didn't
want to really, you know, pile on that
angle because the fear is the stock
market and the futures market is closed
until Sunday night and you don't know if
there's going to be escalation when
there's two days, Saturday and Sunday,
where the markets are closed. So,
there's this kind of this underlying
emotional fear, which is valid, that
there could be additional escalation,
makes people want to buy oil, not short
it. I'm taking the other side. I think
it's coming down next week. We'll see
Sunday night when the futures open. All
right. So, there's your oil chart. We've
looked at your 10-year chart. The dollar
not really that important today. The
dollar didn't do much. It It's kind of
holding between this technical support
on the DXY at 9850 and then you have
this ascending trend line up here around
100. But again, little bit of a bounce
in the second half of the week after
early weakness down into that technical
support. Now, let's turn our attention
to some key stocks cuz there were some
key movers today. Some very intriguing
movers. In fact, so number one, Oracle
reported earnings yesterday after the
bell. The stock was up all after hours
67% even into this morning and then gave
it all back. Not a good sign. Not a good
sign for the hyperscalers. Take a look
at Oracle. The Oracle daily chart opened
up here and look all day long closing at
the lows of the day. So all and said and
done, Oracle was down 1.75%. Not a big
deal, right? But when you look and you
say, "Wow, Oracle from the highs here to
here was about a 10% move from its peak
to its trough." That is significant. And
again, they had good earnings, but the
market and participants are still very
nervous about the amount of debt that
these companies are taking on,
especially in an economy where oil could
be causing the consumer more and more
stress and slowing the economy down. You
start to have a chain reaction, a domino
effect of this debt starting to kind of
fall apart and it could be a disaster
for some of these companies. So, right
now, investors are still a little wary
on where Oracle stands. Couple other
stocks in motion today. Apple surging up
today. Another solid day after their
iPhone, their foldable iPhone debuted.
Again, good move. Now, this is a key one
I'm watching into next week. There's a
major gap fill to the to the base of the
topping tail. This is a topping tail
right here. Right. So, this candle, this
is what we call a topping tail. It
nailed the top perfectly before the
fall. Slowly, we've been grinding up. We
filled that gap. I likely take a swing
short on Apple. It's one of the top
trade setup candidates for me into next
week. So, there it is. We other other
stocks that did well. You had Amazon
doing very very well. A lot of the
Magnificent 7 in fact did very well
today. While interestingly enough, we
saw more and more of the memory names
getting hammered. So SanDisk, STX, which
is Seagate, WDC, Western Digital, Micron
opened higher and closed lower on the
day. So a lot of these stocks continue
to really struggle. They'll have a day
or two that's really, really good and
then they'll get slammed back down to
the downside. Take a look at some of
these here, folks. If we look at
SanDisk, you can see SanDisk was down
3.5% today. Micron only down a little
bit, but still opened higher on the day
around $1,000. closed around 975 and STX
here, Seagate Technologies dropping as
much as almost 4% on the day. All right,
one of the standouts today was Dell.
Dell again making a new all-time high
here. And again, the question becomes,
where is this going to go before it
reaches a zenith or a pivot high? And
that'll be something I study on the
charts this weekend. But what a move on
Dell. Up 12% today as this rally
continues. Just zooming out on the
weekly chart. Look at this run.
Absolutely incredible. In January of
this year, Dell was $112. It is now
$566.
One of the best performing stocks of the
year. No doubt about it. The question
again is where are the charts saying
it'll go to and then where does it start
to reverse? I'll keep you guys posted if
I find the level. No doubt about it. All
right, let's go into some gold action
here. Gold today, early in the day when
yields were down and the dollar was at
its lows, gold was at its highs, traded
as high as 4,400. By the end of the day,
it gave back half of that gain. In fact,
more than half, just up about 6%. This
is all I care about on gold. This trend
line at 4,300,
that has to hold next week. You still
have your head and shoulders pattern
here, which is a very, very important
bearish pattern formation. Only bearish
if it triggers with a daily close below
the neckline of 4,300. Watch that
closely next week. Same thing for
silver. Silver was able to get a small
gain and save itself today breaking back
or holding this trend line. But again,
same thing, shoulder, head and shoulder.
You got to hold the 6375
level on silver. All right. And again,
if these two levels break on gold and
silver, the calculated target is
basically back to their recent lows from
earlier this year. So, you're talking
about a significant move to the downside
should these names break these levels.
All right. Now, again, what would cause
that? Well, if we see the yields going
higher, there's no doubt about it. I
mean, if we get above 5%, start breaking
above that, that's going to put more
pressure on the precious metals to the
downside. Now, if yields start pulling
back, I actually think then you can hold
these levels and break out from recent
highs and continue up. A lot of this all
comes down to what the yield does next
week, what the Fed says next week, which
will trigger a move in yields on
Wednesday afternoon, and then obviously
the follow through into next weekend.
All right, couple other charts here. We
talked about again oil, oil pulling back
but still hovering above $100 a barrel.
Natural gas today, take a look at this.
So NAT gas again flushed but it was able
to come back. Still had a down day but
it's actually acting relatively
resilient here but it needs to still
recapture this 283 level. So I'm
watching this very carefully. Remember I
was bullish above here but once it broke
this level I had to go back into a
neutral stance. Can it get back above?
Can it recapture its bullish bias per
the charts? Lastly, Bitcoin here, guys.
Let's take a look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin
just like gold early in the day, surging
as high as almost 80,000, but then
giving up a ton of it. Now, I'm really
following Bitcoin just like gold and
silver. Now listen, Bitcoin doesn't have
a head and shoulders on it. So it
doesn't have the same pattern formation
as gold and silver, but it still has a
base here where you can see every time
you're getting a pullback, you're
bouncing, you're pulling back, you're
bouncing up, and you're pulling back.
It's very clear that this, we'll call it
76,000 or just under this level is a
major level. As long as it holds above
this level, you got to remain bullish
that this is a bigger bull flag
consolidation for an eventual move and
breakout to the upside. But likewise, if
this level gives way, if we start
trading below 76,000, big trouble for
Bitcoin. It could begin a much bigger
retrace, potentially pulling back to 66
to 67,000
down here. This would be that first
major technical level. That would
actually be where I would buy it as a
swing trade if it ever does pull back to
that level. So, listen, it was an
action-packed week. Short week, a lot
crammed in, oil surging, yield surging.
We obviously got PPI, CPI data, all of
this bringing us into next week where we
will be focusing in on the Fed on
Wednesday. Now, before I go, guys, and
this is probably the most important
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right, guys. You guys are rock stars.
Thank you guys for being with us on this
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Come see us Monday morning, 9:00 a.m.
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giving you out my trades for the day.
Have a great weekend and thank you so
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