My Trading Game Plan | September 11, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until [music] I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
that made me a [music]
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan. Good morning everybody. Happy
Friday. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief
market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, the CPI data has just hit 30 minutes
ago. It came in fractionally hotter than
expected. In fact, let's take a look at
the numbers right here. Now, the first
thing you'll see is year-over-year in
line with estimates at 3.4%.
Core in line, that's year-over-year in
line at 2.4%.
CPI month overmonth was in line at 4%.
But core CPI slightly hotter at.3%
versus the 2% expected. So those are the
numbers on CPI. What does that tell us?
It tells us basically the Fed's going to
hike next week. Now the markets are not
super upset. This is something that
they've already been pricing in by
yields going up. And the market I think
thinks it's one and done for the rate
hike. And again, what we're seeing here
is oil is dropping. Oil has been
dropping overnight. That's bringing the
10-year yield in, which is spiking the
S&P futures. Now, take a look at this,
guys. We just talked about how the Fed
is likely to hike rates next week when
it's on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Remember
when I did the game plan yesterday,
there was an over 60% chance we were
going to be seeing, in fact, it was
close to 70% chance we would see a rate
hike next week. All right. Now, that was
after the PPI data, which is producer
price index. Look at what it is now.
Based on all the metrics, we are looking
at an 86.7%
chance the Fed will hike rates next next
week. That is essentially a lock. Like I
don't think anything will happen in the
next four trading days today, Monday,
Tuesday into Wednesday where anything
will change. At this point, the markets
expect it. And if the markets expect it,
the Fed will deliver it. The Fed does
not want to shake the ground here. Even
if the president rage tweets about it,
it looks like the Fed will be raising
rates next week. Now, again, you might
say, "Well, isn't the stock market
getting pummeled on this?" Actually, no.
Take a look at this, guys. The S&P
futures, we're already trending up on
the back of this data. And we are seeing
a surge to the upside even further. The
S&P futures right now are up 1%. That is
negating yesterday's drop. and then
some. So, we are seeing a very
substantial bid in the S&P futures. Now,
if you've been following along, what's
been my S&P bias? Have we been above the
bullish line or below? Yesterday, we
tested it, but we stayed above the S&P
500 bullish level trend line. Okay. Now,
the reason I bring this to your
attention is because yesterday, and I
even told you guys this in the the game
plan yesterday morning, I said I am
going to be doing some buying of stocks
today and I did that yesterday.
Absolutely. All right. If you're a
member of Smart Money Stocks and ETFs,
the portfolio, which you view literally,
you see the live portfolio if you are a
member and you see how much we're up for
the year. I did buying yesterday and
today it's having a beautiful initial
jump in value. Here it is. So here's the
chart. This is the levels I've shown
you. We have our bullish bias. As long
as we held this trend line, I said
maintain a bullish bias. I even said we
could be making a bull flag on the S&P.
Look at that. Look at I mean this is
absolutely gorgeous, right? high pivot,
high pivot to high pivot, low pivot, low
pivot to low pivot. So you have this
perfect descending channel that came
right into major technical support and
it was the bullish bias trend line. So
if we had broken that, that would have
been a different story. But sure enough,
we held it. And today we're looking at a
1% rally in the S&P 500. And by the way
folks, just a little bit of a data point
here. And again, it is September 11th
and we'll all we of course we all
remember September 11th, 2001. I was at
Bingmpington University in New York when
the Twin Towers were struck. I remember
watching it live on TV. And I remember I
couldn't even get home to my family
because I have to go basically you had
to go through the city on the bridges.
Um, and it was all shut down for a long,
long time. But if you look at every day,
every September 11th since 2001, there's
only been two down days. In general,
September 11th is an upday per the data.
And it looks like we're on pace for
another one today. And you might say,
well, why is that? Is it institutional?
you know, there may be a bias for
institutions to want to or at least the
government to prop up the markets on a
day like today. Um, generally it's it's
a good thing you want people to to have
that positive feeling on a day like
today since it was such a horrific day.
But I think also it has to do with the
resilience, right? People and human
nature is to come out of these scenarios
with strength, with belief in their
country. And what do you do? buy stocks
on days like today. All right, so let's
go back to the charts here. So we have a
bullish bias maintained right now. We're
getting a bit up in the pre-market. The
dollar today is coming in just a little
bit. This is the bigger story. Look at
the 10-year yield. The 10-year yield is
falling going to the daily chart.
Beautiful red candle. And this, my
friends, is on the back of this oil. oil
is below $99 a barrel. And I told you
guys yesterday, I said, "Listen," and I
what's what's amazing and I love about
this is you guys can go to yesterday's
video and always fact check me. What did
I say yesterday? It's right there in the
video. I said, "Look at $14 per barrel."
That is your next technical level. Now,
yesterday after the stock market closed,
oil spiked up after hours. Where did it
go? Let's take a look. Where did it go?
Right here. $104 a barrel. This pivot
point right here. There it is. Look at
the drop on crude oil from that point.
So, crude oil down 5% today below $99 a
barrel. And again, beautiful pullback
here as we'll see how low this can go.
I'm expecting a pullback on crude to
9250.
Not necessarily today, but by early next
week, we should be back to 9250. Then
that will be a technical support. Notice
here it was technical high pivot and
then you hit it here, bounced, bounced,
tried to get through, couldn't, and then
finally broke out and went to the
upside. So therefore, this now should be
technical support. All right. So that's
where we are on this front of crude oil.
Beautiful drop again trading below $99 a
barrel. Yields are coming in. PPI data
was fractionally hotter on the monthly
uh core number, but again the market
seems to have accepted a rate hike next
week. At least we know now that we're
going to get a rate hike and that's the
next big factor next week. Now what's
going to be interesting is what Kevin
Walsh, the Fed chair, says when a or
after they hike rates in his press
conference. Is he going to say, "Hey,
we're going to do more. That's where
we're going to get more movement in the
markets." Right? That's where things
will change. Okay? But I think a lot of
the you upside recently in the yields is
directly related to what a massive move
oil has had. And just to put it in
perspective, if we go back to the chart
from this low, which was about one month
ago, we've gone up about 40% in oil from
low to high. Here we've gone up about
30%. So that's the last two weeks, 30%
move. So needless to say, think about
the inflationary pressures. I mean, you
have diesel fuel, which is currently now
at all-time highs above $6 a gallon. Uh,
incredible. Now, if that can mitigate,
that will be very helpful to the
inflation picture going forward. All
right, so we've covered um all the major
things here. We'll get to gold, we'll
get to silver, we'll get to natural gas.
Before we do that, let's talk about
earnings. Uh Oracle reported yesterday
after the bell. The Oracle numbers were
very very good. Uh the stock really
though is only getting back a little
more than what it lost yesterday. So
this was the previous close before
yesterday. This was the drop yesterday.
And where we're trading is just a little
bit above that. Now in terms of a
trading level today, when we're not
really at a recent high or low, it makes
it very hard as a day trader. I'm going
to continue to watch some key levels.
So, just in case it really rallies to
the upside today, this 179 level will be
on my radar. It would have to rally
about $15 higher than where it currently
is, which would be another 10%. I think
that's somewhat unlikely considering the
price action in the pre-market, but
again, if it does push up there, I would
be a buyer. If it sells off for some
reason today, 139 to 140 would be
short-term technical support. All right.
Uh Adobe reported earnings here. Check
this out. The stock is down, although
catching a little bit of a bid
pre-market, but again, here you have a
stock that fell into earnings. It's down
more. Check out this trend line. Major
trend line. Price broke out. So, what do
we know about trend lines that break
out? What does price generally like to
do? It likes to go back to the scene of
the crime. The scene of the crime means
a retrace to that level which had acted
as major resistance but now will act as
support. And so again, even as a swing
trade, I'm not even looking at this as a
day trade. I'm looking at this as a
swing trade. If it pulls back to that
trend line, I will be a buyer on a swing
trade basis. So just to recapture in
visual form, resistance,
resistance,
resistance,
breakout, retrace, support right there.
That's around 220. It's still about $20
lower, but if we do come in there the
next week or two, I love that level as
an opportunity to go long on Adobe. RH
reported earnings. the stock initially
popping sharply but coming back in only
fractionally higher on the day. So
really makes it pretty tricky to day
trade it again. Maybe if it gets down to
about 119 to 118. Uh vice versa. There's
a gap up here at 170. I don't really
have a good day trading level on this
one. Now one chart and I'm getting more
and more bullish on this chart on a
swing trade basis. We just talked about
the retrace to the scene of the crime,
right? Well, did you guys look at Kweb,
which is the internet um internet China
ETF? Take a look. Here it is. This is an
exact example of what I said that could
happen to Dolby, but it's already
happened to Kb here. And again, I am an
intrigued buyer of Kweb. Resistance,
resistance, all of these resistance
points. Price breaks out, retraces, and
look at where it went yesterday, right
into this level. getting a small bounce
today, but again, good technical support
here at 2450. So, I like this one as a
swing trade as well. We'll see where it
goes. Gold today was teasing a breakdown
of the head and shoulders pattern. It so
far is getting rescued today as yields
are coming in and the dollar is coming
in. Gold is catching a bid. Good save
here. And I said yesterday, I said,
"Listen, this level, if you're a bull on
gold in the near- term, and listen, I'm
a I'm a bull long-term, because I'm a
bull long-term, I don't really care if
it breaks these levels because it's a
short-term move. Um, but if you're more
of a short-term trader on gold, this is
a huge level, right?" But I said, you
got to the bulls have to hold the line
here. Right now, they are. Absolutely,
they are. We'll have to watch and see um
if it continues. So right now, good
bounce on gold. We'll continue to watch
that. Silver, same thing. You have your
head and shoulders pattern. It tried to
break the neckline. It held and is now
catching a bid. But watch this trend
line in the coming days. Does it end up
breaking? If it does, downside to about
55 an ounce if it breaks. If it doesn't
break, I would expect another retrace up
here to resistance around 7071 and maybe
a breakout even higher. So, this line is
really a major line in the sand. Natural
gas yesterday fell sharply, then
recovered and went green. Today, it's
down again. Notice how it's now
struggling to get back above this pivot
line. So, remember this is your neutral
zone on natural gas. We are in the
neutral zone. If it gets back above
here, it flips back to bullish. If it
gets below this trend line, it flips to
bearish. But right now, kind of more of
a neutral bias after the unfortunate
breakback below this trend line on
natural gas. Next up, guys, let's take a
look. We have Coinbase. Coinbase, oh,
excuse me, I should say Bitcoin traded
on Coinbase here. This is the Coinbase
chart um um on that platform, but it is
of Bitcoin and Bitcoin getting a bid
today off of this technical level. You
can see again seems to come down, hit,
come down, hit, come down, hit very
clear zone here around 76,000 that we'll
have to watch in the future. And again,
really, if you're looking at Bitcoin, as
long as it holds this general vicinity
right along here, then to me, this looks
possibly like a bull flag for an
eventual breakout. Now, if it breaks
this, that's problematic. But just like
gold and silver, you could be bullish as
long as the trend line holds on all of
those, inclusive of Bitcoin here. It
still looks generally positive. So
again, very interesting to see how
everything continues out. I will keep
you guys as always in the loop. One more
check on yields coming down to about
4.922%.
If we look at oil today, oil now back
just fractionally above $99 a barrel.
We'll see where that goes. And the S&P
futures heading into the open, getting a
beautiful daily bounce. Look at this
nice day today. We're up about 1% on the
S&P 500. Now, folks, I'll be back today
at 420 for your live market reaction
summary to everything today. It's called
the weekly wrap-up. It's my Friday show
at 4:20 p.m. I'll be back. And don't
forget, usually today we do Crypto
Combat at 1:30 p.m., which is a fun
show, but today we're doing a special
Bitcoin revealed episode by Nick, our
chief market or chief crypto strategist.
So, tune in at 1:30 today for that live
show. Should be fantastic. And I'll see
you all at 4:20 today for a weekly
wrap-up of the markets. You guys have a
great one. Talk to you soon. Take care.