My Trading Game Plan | September 15, 2026

My name is Gareth [music] Soloway and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype [music] and narratives every
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now, we're one day away from the mammoth
Fed decision, which will be tomorrow at
200 p.m. Eastern time. Now, overall,
everyone is locked in for a 25 basis
point rate hike. In Fed, in fact, the
Fed watch tool is telling us there's a
and that's the the 10-year yield right
now, which is remarkable. We'll talk
about that in just a second. But the Fed
watch tool is showing a 92.5%
chance of a Fed hike tomorrow. Now, in
Fed terms, if you look historically,
this is as locked in as it can be. So,
again, there's a lot of people that are
still doubters that the Fed will come
through and raise rates. I was about a
month ago. I thought they would try to
figure out a way to weasle out of it,
but ultimately oil going up and the
10-year yield putting pressure on them
to do just that and raise rates has
really left them with no option. Now,
remember, once we get the hike, and this
is already priced into the market, the
the factors that we're watching for are
what does Kevin Worsh say in regards to
future hikes? that's going to be the
determining factor of the move up or
down tomorrow after the Fed decision.
So, we'll keep an eye on that and see
where it goes. Like I just showed you
guys, we have seen the 10-year yield in
early trading push up to a 19-year high
to hit 5.4%.
But check this out, guys. Yields have
rolled over now and are near the neutral
to negative side. And this is coming on
the back of oil, which had pushed back
above 104 overnight, has now started to
decline. So, this is what's going on
here. We have the 10-year yield pushing
up, making a new high from multiple
years ago. In fact, 19-year high that
initially was putting pressure. The S&P
futures were down over 50 points,
setting up for another nasty day. The
pressure on yields was being driven up
by oil going higher again in the early
morning, but all of a sudden oil started
to roll over and that brought the yield
back in. So, what have we seen? We saw
negative 50 points on the S&P futures to
a point where we are basically flat
going into the open today. Let's look at
the charts and take a gander at this
guys. again right here. Here's the S&P
500 or the SPY tracking ETF. And you can
see this is where we closed yesterday
right here overnight. Not much going on
in the after hours. Then we started to
cascade lower as oil was going higher.
Then right here, just after 500 a.m.
Eastern time, we saw the S&P start to
turn around and oil started to drop,
which then dragged or drugged down the
10-year yield to the downside. So,
again, you can see the S&P rallying. If
we flip over to oil, take a look. Look
at how oil literally topped out at that
same time frame. Remember what I just
said, 5:20 in the morning? That was
right here. So 5:20 in the morning when
the S&P 500 bottomed, that was exactly
when oil topped. And look at oil. It has
come down from a high of 10423
to now be trading at 10135
in the pre-market. And if we go to the
10-year yield, this is even more
fascinating. Look at that. We were as
high on the daily candle as 5.04%.
Which again, this trend line goes back
to the 2023 October high. But to go back
to see when the last time since we
pierced this level, how long we've been
uh or when was the last time we were
here, it was in 2007.
Again, 19 years ago. Incredible stuff,
guys. Now, again, just like what we
talked about with oil, look at how when
did the 10-year top out? Right here,
guys. Right early in the morning session
as the 10-year fell and remember it was
falling on the back of oil coming down
then the markets caught that bid and the
10-year yield is now back to 4.99%
back to below 5%. You can see right now
potentially putting in a topping tail
for the 10-year yield which is a bearish
reversal signal. Now, some people would
jump to the conclusion and say, "Oh,
man. This must mean the Fed is not going
to raise rates tomorrow if if yields are
topping out." I actually think it's the
opposite. I think it's the market
beginning to recognize smart money knows
the Fed's going to raise. Now, you would
say, "Well, wouldn't that push up the
tenure?" No, no, no. I actually would
argue that a hawkish Fed would drop the
long end of the yield curve. And I hope
the president's listening to this
because this is really important. is
that remember the market sets our
long-term rates the 10-year, the
20-year, the 30-year. So, if the Fed
shows they have a bo backbone and are
willing to tackle the inflation, that
gives confidence to buyers of our debt.
When you give confidence to those
countries or those people or those
entities buying the US debt, they are
willing to accept a lower interest rate
for lending us money. So it is
imperative if you want to keep the the
yields low. The Fed must be independent
and hawkish on inflation and all things
related. Think about that one. It's a
counterintuitive. And I saw there were a
lot of puts out there. And this is
something Jake talked about this morning
to me, but we talked about how there
were a lot of puts on the S&P 500. the
put call ratio was skyhigh which means a
lot of people are betting on downside
that inherently makes me bullish and
adds to the thesis that everyone's
expecting the Fed to hike so therefore
the markets they they assume the markets
would drop I'm in the other camp I think
we actually see a rally on a Fed hike
assuming Kevin War stays hawkish think
about it it's an interesting hypothesis
and we'll see tomorrow when they
announce if I am correct All right, back
to the charts we go again. That's your
10-year yield trading at 4.99%.
Let's go to the S&P 500 daily chart and
take a look. And you guys know my bias
has not changed. I've been crystal clear
that as long as we hold the 7575
7570 level on the S&P, it is bullish
bias. Says it right there, guys. as
clear as day. Bullish bias on the S&P
500. Sure enough, right now we were down
pre-market. Now we're back to basically
the flatline and we'll see where oil
goes in the coming day into the Fed
decision tomorrow. But I remain bullish
on the S&P 500. Take a look at this
downsloping parallel. I think this is an
absolute gem of a find. Look at how if
you connect the recent high pivots on
this drop over the last month or so in
the markets, the low pivots align
perfectly with the bottom of that
parallel. And what do we know about this
pattern formation, guys? You have a
sharp up move and then inside bar
action. That's bullish consolidation.
That implies based on probability that
we should be headed higher in the
market. So, I remain bullish. Listen,
like always, any technician has to be
able to know when things change. And if
we did get a daily close below 7570ish,
I would then say, okay, we now go into
more of a neutral stance right here. But
fascinating to look at the kind of the
inner workings, how oil has gone up now.
Again, it's at above $100. S&P is still
two plus% away from all-time high. So
very, very close. Yields just topped 5%.
first time in 19 years and markets are
still just 2 to 3% off their all-time
highs. Incredible. And actually shows in
the near-term resilience. And think
about what we just saw over the weekend.
Uh Dario Amade, I mean all of these big
players in the AI area warning about
basically the extinction of mankind and
people are like, "Yeah, buy more
stocks." Um, it shows this underlying
buy the dip mentality is now part of the
investor DNA. Now, it's part of the
investor DNA, which longer term makes me
really scared about what will eventually
happen when you get everyone to buy into
it and think that the markets can never
go down hook, line, and sinker. That's
inevitably down the line when things
will collapse massively. But I don't
think we're there just yet. All right,
let's go back to the charts. The dollar
today fractionally higher. Notice how
the dollar is just staying in a tight
range right now. We went down, we went
up, we went down, we went up. So, you're
basically consolidating. Now, keep in
mind, we're consolidating below an
ascending trend line that we broke down
from. So this inevitably you would
eventually think we would fall to the
downside on the US dollar. But again, as
of now, it's just choppy action. Now,
again, we look at oil today. This is the
10-minute on oil. I want to flip over to
the daily chart so we can take a look
here. You can see again, we're bubbling
up against a major resistance trend
line. Look at this trend line. It's it's
one I didn't find. And this just shows
you that, you know, I have 27 plus years
of experience and, you know, sometimes
you got to really look at a chart and
see like, well, what what aligns here?
Where are the most pivot points against
a line? And I didn't see this until
yesterday, but again, in yesterday's
game plan, I did show it to you guys,
and it's remarkable. I mean, literally,
every little high here bubbling up
against this line. Then notice how when
the war broke out with Iran, we gapped
above it. We talked about that
yesterday. I call it a river theory and
it took off and then it became support
broke and now resistance and resistance
and so like I said yesterday in the game
plan I am short oil right now and I
still believe that we are likely closer
to a high than a low and I do think oil
will come in still before the midterms.
Now, how much? I mean, that's the
question, right? I mean, maybe not back
to the 70s, but I do think it could come
down to 90 or even in the mid80s before
the midterms. And this is all on the
back of diesel being above $6 a gallon.
I mean these are incredible pressures
especially the diesel price um on
inflation and the economy frankly
because again these prices are taking
away the ability any sort of
inflationary push takes more disposable
income away from a consumer that was
already struggling massively to spend
money right I mean that basically people
are like well I've got to buy food I've
got to buy energy and lodging what do I
have left over and many of us out there
are saying don't have much left.
Frankly, a great example of this, and
we'll look at it in a second, Dave and
Busters, which again, I used to go there
when I was a kid. It was a lot of fun.
Uh, lots of video games, bowling alley,
you know, all that fun stuff. But they
reported earnings. That stock is at a
multi-deade low, getting crushed today.
And that's a case in point consumer
spending that's optional, right? You
don't have to go out and spend. You
don't have to go out to these places.
you know, when gas is soaring and
inflation soaring, you tend to stay home
more. And that's a good example. All
right, we'll look at that in a second.
Let's take a look here. So, again, we
looked at the S&P, the dollar, the
10-year yield, and oil. Let's go through
a few key stocks. Um, Nvidia is bouncing
today. Nasty selloff the last few days.
It did fill a key gap that I discussed
in the the game plan yesterday. I did
play it in the live day trading room as
a bounce play. Worked out beautifully
for a day trade. Again, nothing really
new here, but the bigger pattern is on
watch. In other words, we're in an
ascending almost parallel. It's a
slight, you know, these two trend lines
are converging slightly. But point is,
do we head up to the highs? Do we go to
the lows? And if we go to the lows, do
we break down? That's the one concern.
You do not want to see this lower trend
line break. Meta Meta is at a pivotal
level today. Look at this descending
trend line from September of 2025
through this high in January 2026, July
2026 to this recent high just yesterday.
Are we going to break out here? Maybe.
Am I shorting it here? No. I don't short
after we hit a trend line too many
times. One, two, three, four times. It's
weakened the trend line. It doesn't mean
it's going to break out. What it means
is it's more of a gamble. In other
words, 50/50 chance. And remember, as a
good trader, we should only be taking
high probability trade setups. And these
are little nuances that I teach in my
course, the winning trader series, and
that you guys can learn just by studying
the charts. When you put the time and
the energy in, and it's, by the way, I
don't think there's anything better to
put time and energy. I mean, like, it's
literally your financial future. Um,
some of us like to play video games. I I
get it. I don't do it. Um, I'm too busy.
But like there are there are ways that
can impact your financial future in such
an amazing way uh versus scrolling on
Facebook or Instagram or all these other
mind-numbing rotting type things that
some of us do. And I'll be I'm I'll say
I'm guilty of that. Every once in a
while I catch myself and I'm like, "What
am I doing? What a waste of time." And
then I go back a week later and do it
again. You know, it's like just goes to
show you. All right. Um [laughter]
okay, so that's where we are right now.
Take a look at LAR. This one I am
bullish on Lenar guys. Lenar my thesis
is this is that Fed raises rates start
falling a little bit and the housing
stocks get a little bit of an uptick.
Now again I'm not long-term bullish on
LAR because I still think the housing
market has a lot of downside. But for a
short-term swing trade I actually like
LAR here. Look at the trend line. So I
always like to coordinate my macro
thesis with technical analysis. Look at
this trend line. Look at this high pivot
here from 2023. We gapped above it. So
that's another river theory example.
Classic river theory example. We then
retrace, hit, bounced, hit, bounced,
hit, bounced, hit, bounce, hit, bounce.
We just hit it again right here. We
should get a bounce up. I'd be looking
for a move potentially kind of to the
parallel of this. Look at how these two
lines are parallel. So, I'd be looking
for a move up to about $88 as a swing
trade long on LAR over the next few
weeks. And again, you know, we'll see
what happens tomorrow with the Fed, but
ultimately the trend line tells us it's
hit the low end of support should
bounce. The macro thesis of of debt
buyers of the US getting a little bit
more confidence should swell, assuming
the Fed shows they have a backbone
tomorrow. very counterintuitive to most
of what retail and even social media and
mainstream media are spinning, right?
But again, I do expect a pullback. Plus,
if you think about the 10-year, it's a
perfect double top. We pierced the high,
which is what you want to see, and now
we've pulled back. So, it's a double top
on the 10-year, which should pull back,
and it coincides with the decision
tomorrow. Again, I don't mind putting
myself on the line. That's just what I
think. If I think it, I'm going to tell
you guys about it. It's the honesty that
I bring to the table. All right,
[snorts] let's look at play Dave and
Busters here. Nasty drop. Pretty thin
and small stock at this point, but look
at this poor chart going back to 2024.
What a decline on Dave and Busters. Um,
in terms of a technical level here,
there is a level I am watching. We can
take these lows and connect it. So,
notice if we get down pivot low here to
pivot low, this gives us a target of a
pierce of $7. So, I would be it would be
a very high risk. Remember, the smaller
the stock, the more risk of volatility,
but below seven, I would start to maybe
think about a day trade today on Dave
and Busters. The symbol on that is play.
PL A Y. All right, flipping over to
gold. Gold broke down yesterday. It's
down today just slightly. We'll keep an
eye on this again. Is the head and
shoulders triggered? Yes, it is. Um, if
yields pull back though, and I want to
be crystal clear, if my macro thesis
plays out with the Fed and yields
actually pulling back here, then you
would actually see the head and
shoulders fail. I know that sounds
crazy, but patterns can fail. They fail
all the time. The key is knowing when
they fail. Now, you know when it fails,
if we close back above that neckline,
one daily close above the neckline, it's
off the table. All right, it's done.
It's failed. And I would just say that
if rates come in, gold should rally. it
should. Doesn't mean it has to, but
historically that's the coordination
right there. Same thing generally for
silver. Silver's actually green today,
but did close below the neckline. It is
not back above the neckline yet, so it
can't negate it at this point, but let's
watch closely in the coming day slash
days to see where it goes. Natural gas
surging today. Love seeing this, guys.
Uh let's see. The next big technical
level is $3 high pivot right here.
Right. So, we have this high to this
high to this high. Can we take out this
$3 level? I got to say, folks, I
continue to be bullish on natural gas.
The chart itself is mediocre. It's okay.
It's in the bullish zone, but it's not
like overwhelmingly bullish. But what I
like about it is the the fundamental
aspects. And this is where as a
technician, I'm a true believer. Like,
you have some people that just say,
"Hey, I ignore all of the other stuff
out there. I just look at the charts."
And I I ultimately allow the charts to
dictate my entries, right? Entries and
exits. But I do think a good economist,
a good macro, you know, trader that
focuses on technicals probably does need
a general overview of other things,
right? You got to know about what's
going on in the bigger picture. And with
this, we have the seasonality aspect,
but also there's this big underlying
need for energy with these data centers.
And I'm hearing more and more rumblings
from the institutional side that it is
going to be coming from Nat Gas because
it's basically the cheapest angle of
energy right now. Um that's doable. And
so keep that in mind is that we could
see we get above three bucks, we could
see a super spike to three half to $4 in
the near term. So I'm going to watch
that $3 level very very closely on NAT
gas. Lastly, Bitcoin. Bitcoin coming
back in today. A lot of the gyration
yesterday was about the Clarity Act and
whether or not it's going to get
through. They're voting on something
about the Clarity Act today. Again, I
don't think it's the specific full
enclosure bill, but either way, this is
the key here technically is you got to
hold this zone. As long as you hold this
zone, then the pattern is up
consolidation, which is a bullish
pattern, and it could yield upside. If
we violate and break below here, that
would be where you say, "Okay, game off.
This is now a bigger drop and I would
favor a big move down to like 67,000
potentially on Bitcoin. So, right now,
Bitcoin's holding its bullish bias.
Let's tip our caps to that, watch it,
see what happens with the clarity vote.
Uh, from that point on, we'll just
monitor that major technical level. But
right now, the bias based on technicals,
which is probability, favors the upside.
All right, guys. I got to get to my
trading room. Come check us out at
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one. Take care.