Trading The Close | September 15, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys,
the markets today were broadly under
pressure. The semis actually poked up a
little bit throughout the course of the
day, but it was largely due yet again to
rates. Guys, rates poked up, pierced
through that 2023 resistance level that
I had talked to you about and
highlighted on this show, and then we
since pulled back ever so slightly. Oil
was also pushing up, putting pressure
across the board on the markets moving
into the FOMC tomorrow. We got a lot to
talk about regarding that decision, some
that I'll withhold for until we get to
the 10-year yield chart. Until then
guys, let's jump into the S&P 500 and
see where the markets shook out today.
We got the spiders down .46% not a big
tremendous fall, but still pushing down
on the charts. You notice today we did
close underneath this previous all-time
high pivot. This level illustrated by a
horizontal trend line on your charts has
been the area of support for the most
recent declines that we saw starting
this month in September. Now we breached
it most recently September 10th. We
breached it again yesterday, but did our
best to fight and get above it to close.
Now today couldn't hold on, had to push
down lower. Now if you know anything and
watch this show several times, you know
what I'm about to say. What happens
tomorrow is significant cuz if we close
underneath this red candle that
increases probabilities of this break
remaining active and staying intact,
pushing us down to the next level of
support which would come into contact
with a three pivot on or three hit
inclining trend line, meaning that this
next hit likely is due to provide a
near-term bounce if not pause the
selling pressure in the near term. That
key level of support is down here near
$749
on that inclining trend line. As you can
see, that's dynamic, so it increases as
it goes up on the charts as we push
forward through time. So, I'll be
watching that inclining trend line very
closely for near-term bounce potentials
on the S&P 500. Now, if we start
floating up, this clearly to the top end
is another declining trend line that
will be holding down price in the very
near term, too. I'll get into scenarios
in which we could start floating up just
when we get into the 10-year year yield
chart. Uh next up, guys, the QQQ, down
0.65% today. We saw yesterday states a
pretty decent recovery off of the lows,
today reversing course, now closing near
the lows of the day. So, moving into the
Fed day, a lot did get quiet throughout
the course of the day. We can see that
on the Qs as well as on the S&P 500, but
we started with most of our selling
pressure early in the morning and then
extended throughout the afternoon,
really just moving sideways. This is
what happens, guys, and you can
anticipate this sort of quiet activity
on the charts ahead of FOMC decisions.
Now, we already, moving into the FOMC,
have a 92% chance of a rate hike. So,
with that being said, we already know,
um likely, what is going to be the case.
We just don't know the language that's
surrounding future potential rate hikes.
All right, next up into the SMH. We see
the SMH on the daily time frame did
finish positive. You see this? It was
one in the green today. So, it was up
0.11%. We were higher throughout the
course of the day, even higher than
yesterday's high of the day, uh too.
But, what did we do? We settled in,
again, right here on this 50% area of
the parallel channel that, I remind you,
too, we tagged precisely on the way down
yesterday, bounced up, and since have
really just settled in right here on top
of that 50% area of the parallel.
Normally, that's not really good, guys.
You want to see a big fall, hit a level
of support, and then start producing
momentum for a bounce, so it can go back
up and attack the resistance that's
ahead of it. Instead, we're just
lingering right around on top of this uh
50% area of the parallel. If we didn't
have the FOMC tomorrow, I would be much
more bearish, saying that this price
action is actually implying we're going
to continue to go down through the 50%
area of the parallel. Now, if that is
the case, where will we go? Well, a
clear destination would be right down
here at the bottom range of this
parallel channel, right at 509. And if
we zoom over here to July 29th, we can
see we got very close to that range at
503.63.
So, right around 509 to 503.63
will be an awful lot of support on the
SMH. To the upside, getting above this
declining trend line will be the first
test in front of SMH at 555.17.
Into the 10-year yield, where I did note
that we did push higher today, they
breached the 2023 pivot at 5.021%,
and look, guys, this is a rapid move up
on the 10-year yield. We can just simply
count here with these green candles.
This is 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 now 8 days in a
row green candles on the chart. Even
further, if we just take out this one
red candle that occurred on September
2nd. So, that is several consecutive
days marching up the 10-year yield. What
does that do? That puts us in overbought
situation, guys. Anything over 70 on the
RSI is considered overbought in the near
term. So, what I think likely could
happen, and likely why this has moved up
so much so fast, is that the markets are
already pricing in the hike that's over
92% chance of it occurring and happening
over the next um
meeting that's taken place tomorrow. So,
you see here with this range, the 5.021
and 4.809%.
I'm uncertain we get all the way down
there, but I anticipate price on the
10-year yield to start consolidating
much like what we did over here. And if
we start consolidating, any down days on
the 10-year yield will be a breather for
investors to jump back into the market.
So, that's where I'm seeing that we
could actually start poking up in the
market slightly. And any pullbacks on
the yield will help gold and silver,
too. Now, keep in mind, if I zoom back
out on this chart, guys, and I delete
this uh this little consolidation mark,
and I keep going out further, and even
flip it to the monthly, look what I've
got here on the monthly time frame,
guys. We've got a Fibonacci sequence re
uh uh um displayed
right here on the chart dated all the
way back to 1981, guys, and coming all
the way down to the low that we had
during COVID. And you cleanly can see
we've made stair steps approach so far
moving up, getting above this 2.36%
or this 236 fib retrace level. Next stop
is going to be the 382, right up at
6.249%.
So, all of this going on currently with
yields rising, talking about hiking
rates, it very well may not be the end
of the run on yields pushing up higher.
We're simply putting in an awful lot of
consolidation here, establishing
ourselves in between the 236 and the 382
fib retrace levels. So, this is very key
and pivotal in the coming days. Do we
put in consolidation as I outlined what
could happen? And if we do that, every
downtick could be rallies in the market,
and they couldn't may not mean rallies
to all brand new all-time highs, but if
we continue that momentum much like what
occurred here in building that
consolidation, guys, we're moving up,
and then we're going to be talking about
6% on the 10-year. And that certainly,
every uptick on this 10-year yield will
put pressure on the markets, and it will
put pressure on gold. But as you can see
here with gold putting in another
somewhat flat day on the chart. Now,
yesterday we had a drop and we did do a
drop underneath the bottom range of this
inclining parallel channel. Let me show
you where that comes from, dating all
the way back here to April of 2025. Why
this is very important and we're on a
watch for a potential breakdown in gold
and we didn't get it today. We didn't
get a further move down under
yesterday's close under the parallel
channel. Further giving insight as to
what I anticipate could be a little bit
of a relief in the 10-year yield
tomorrow. We didn't confirm a break here
on the chart of gold. I could see a a
situation where we have one candle down
and another couple candles just right
back up without extending the confirmed
close away from that key line that you
see here displayed out on your chart,
currently at $4,312.
Now, if the yields continue to push up,
next near-term support on gold will be
down here at $4,193.
Next thing though for gold, get back
into the parallel channel and then we'll
start talking about near-term resistance
as this one will be a more significant
medium-term resistance level up at
$4,575.
Next up into silver. As we see here,
silver producing a very similar story as
gold, guys. Remaining underneath this
inclining trend line from which it broke
down yesterday, but it didn't extend
itself away from that trend line
confirming this head and shoulders
breakdown. Instead, we're just in limbo,
much like what's happened over the last
four trading days. Underneath this line,
right back above, underneath this line,
not extending far enough to confirm. So,
we'll see tomorrow, roll the dice, see
if we actually get uh a push above that
neckline to cancel out this near-term
head and shoulders pattern on silver.
Next up into US oil. You can see US oil,
as I described, continued pushing higher
today. Only two days of consolidation.
Now, we saw this occur back further on
the chart in September 2nd when price
action initially broke above this
neckline of an inverse head and
shoulders pattern that has a targeted
measured move up here at $116.
Uh but right now, oil says it doesn't
really want to pause or pull back even
though, look at this. We're overbought.
We're past the 70 threshold on the daily
time frame for US oil. So, we're due for
some sort of technical pullback that
very well could come right up here at
the next resistance, 108.26.
Near-term support down here at $93 and
19 cents. I've moved that up ever so
slightly because of today's continued
advance on US oil. Now, one thing I want
to point out that's very interesting.
One of the best parts about our live day
trading room, guys, we've got so many
members throughout the course of the
world, all of which are very educated in
stocks and technical analysis, some of
which provide great insight like this
parallel channel that I'm putting
together for you right now. You can see,
much like I was anticipating, we're
overbought. We're in extended uh place
on the chart near-term on the place on
the uh on the US oil chart. We should be
pulling back, guys. We should be seeing
some sort of profit taking, but with the
backdrop of everything going on in the
Middle East, I don't see any peace
resolutions. Neither side are agreeing
to come to the table. So, we very well
could just march straight up, remain
overbought, and tag this $116 level.
Nonetheless, we are facing serious
resistance in doing so. The faster we
move up, the faster we can move right
back down as illustrated right over here
on the charts when this conflict all
began. Big sharp moves up, big sharp
moves down, big sharp moves up followed
by big sharp moves down. So, you
eventually are going to get that
pullback, especially if the speed limit
is broken and we continue moving up the
charts in the fashion that we are. Uh
next up, nat gas, guys. Beautiful push
here on nat gas. This is a great example
of what I've highlighted earlier on the
charts of gold, the charts of silver,
how we didn't get an extended confirming
close underneath a key support level
like what happened on nat gas back here
on September 9th. I was anticipating a a
potential either confirmation move to
the downside, but you guys have watched
this show long enough. You saw I knew
that nat gas is more bullish in this
scenario, particularly moving into the
colder months and with this demand with
data centers. So, you can see I
anticipated a bounce that closed was
what the widow maker does in nat gas. It
confuses and whips traders in and out of
positions, but we followed it up pushing
up higher today testing the high range
from the most recent pivots. Very nice
recovery on nat gas. I anticipate the
next stop on nat gas up here on this low
range of the consolidation right around
$3.15
and final destination up here at $3.24.
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All right, guys. Up next, we've got
Dick's Sporting Goods. Now, we covered
this the other week on the tremendous
fall it had after earnings. And I wanted
to bring back some fib levels, too, as
we touched on those yesterday. Guys,
these indicators you can use on every
single chart, and so it's important you
learn how to use them and deploy them on
a normal basis on all of your charts.
Anyway, you can see here what I've done.
I've drawn the fib retracement tool from
the COVID lows all the way up to the
highs that have occurred here in 2025.
Most recently off that earnings,
collapsed underneath this parallel
channel, and you can see here price got
a decent bounce, but is now trading back
down comfortably underneath this 50% fib
retrace at $134.40.
That tells us, guys, we're knocking
against this low range door to come down
to the 618 retrace all the way down just
above $100 at $105.57.
Could be in store for some more downside
pressure on DKS after this very nice
bounce that occurred. As you see here,
this bounce, and I'll zoom in, this
bounce wasn't small. This was pretty
nice. This was a 17% pop on the stock of
DKS, but it did drop much, much more
than 17% as you see here, dropping out
down nearly 30% before having a decent
technical bounce. That technical bounce
so far looks like it may be over where
price is closing near the low range of
those low pivots. So, watch out below
105.57 could be that next stop. Next up
into the chart of Amazon, guys. Now,
first off with Amazon, I want to go over
this with you with a overview of our in-
clining parallel channel. Guys, if you
ever get the opportunity to isolate
these on your charts, I highly recommend
you do it. They give you so much
information where price can break down
from current trend, where we can move up
to the next level, get more bullish, and
then obviously a cap to that
bullishness, right? So, looking at this
inclining parallel all the way back here
since 2023 on the charts, zooming into
the 50% area, you can get a lot more
information here, too. You can see
initially we came down much like the
gold chart and the silver chart. We
didn't confirm a break, elevated right
back up, but then we couldn't extend far
enough, guys, right? If we extended far
enough away, then the next attempt could
be support level. We didn't accomplish
that, instead broke through, put in
another retrace after confirming a
breakdown, and then boom, we've got
rejected. Nice push down further on the
charts. As you see Amazon coming down,
closing near the lows of the day. So,
that brings up an important level of
potential support on the horizon for
AMZN
derived from this inclining trend line
from March 27th of this year connected
over to the pivot low in July of this
year. That value comes in roughly right
around $239 right on top of this
high-end wick on July 30th. We should
see near-term bounce, one that could
propel Amazon right back up to the 50%
area of this parallel at $258.22.
Next up, we've got Meta. We've got two
stocks on breakout watch, right? First,
Meta. Big company here. Now, let's
review the chart a little further back,
much like what we did with Amazon,
highlighting this inclining parallel
channel. Now, with Meta, you can see
we've deviated from it several
occasions, now making a very valiant
effort to get back inside that parallel
channel. Most importantly, look on the
near term from this declining trend line
that we've hit once, twice, three times.
This is the collective fourth hit with
the 50/50 chance of breaking through.
And guys, yesterday closed above, today
closed above yesterday's candle. Now,
what you want to see, we're all still
very, very close with this support area,
but this has confirmed a breakout. You
want to see a little bit more of a push
higher, potentially tagging this high
pivot that you see on the chart back
from July of this year, right around
686. That gives us some breathing room
for any pullbacks down into what I call
X marks the spot at 658 of being a
buying opportunity for continued upward
momentum. The difficult thing facing
meta, it's overbought, guys. So, we need
some sort of continued push up, maybe
even consolidation, work out that
overbought scenario, and then give us
our pullback so we can buy that for a
returning continued breakout move. But,
none It's It is the technical breakout
on the charts. So, it is what it is. I
just want to see a little bit more push
before I feel comfortable buying that
dip on meta. But, great great move on
meta up on the charts pushing higher in
breakout mode. Another chart in breakout
mode, guys, in Roblox. Now, this one yet
has not yet confirmed. Today's price
action did not get above yesterday's
price action. However, this is a
fantastic break and it's at a much
better spot on the charts compared to
meta. Look how far off the highs we are.
These are the type of breakouts I like
because we really can get moving up on
charts. Now, watch this very closely in
the coming days. If we do put a close up
above September 14th's high, any sort of
pullbacks down either to this inclining
trend line at 46.31 or more conservative
route back down to the top of the
parallel at $44 would be a buying
opportunity. And guys, there's a lot of
room to run overhead on Roblox. Getting
above this one key pivot at $58 can push
it all the way up to 50 or $66.21.
Now, lastly, guys, I want to leave off
with something that we covered here in
Trading the Close on Thursday. Now, if
you guys had watched this show on
Thursday and you understand and have
watched me for weeks and weeks, if not
over a year, I love breakout retrace
plays. I even was told today I'm a
breakout retrace junkie. I am because
it's so one of the simplest moves you
can draw on your charts with technical
analysis. All you need to know how to
draw is one line, guys. So, let's review
this. I gave it to you on Thursday, and
if you took it, you had a 13% profit in
your pocket today just from trading the
stock. Otherwise, you could have upwards
of 30, 40% gains if you did buy call
options. So, let's see what stock I'm
talking about. That's on Skyworks. I
zoom out on this chart, draw a trend
line from the pivot high, guys. This is
very easy to do. Everybody can do this.
Take a trend line from the pivot high,
draw it down to the next major pivot on
the chart. You see here clearly, May
27th of this year. I illustrated here on
Thursday. We're breaking out, guys.
Watch for a continuing move up on
Friday. If so, any sort of pullbacks
back down to that trend line are buying
opportunities. Look what happened.
Friday pushed up, confirmed above that
sort of breakout. Look at that pullback
right back down to this trend line. Buy
anywhere in this range. We only had one
day closing underneath. Wait for another
if you wanted to stop out. Well, we
didn't get that, guys. Instead, look at
that rally right back up to the highs uh
from this candle that confirmed the
breakout. So, again, you could have 13%
profits if you were conservative,
waiting for price to come back down here
to $79. Roughly 50 cents. Put that in
your portfolio and then take it out of
your portfolio today. Those are the type
of trades I like, in and out, then I'm
in for another opportunity, which is why
I created Mastering the Overnight Trade
purely based off of time sequences, much
like this breakout retrace. Buy at the
end of the day, profit uh first thing
tomorrow. Or like this, let it run. Let
it run. Put in a trailing stop and then
pocket some money. I like stressless
trades. They're they're hard to find in
the market, but I love finding those
stressless trades. And when I can take
them like this, man, what a nice gain.
13% in a day, I'll take that every
single day. All right, guys. Thank you
so much for watching Trading the Close.
Uh don't forget to like and subscribe to
the video. Send this out to your friends
and family so they too can learn
technical analysis on the charts. FOMC
day tomorrow. Big things to cover
tomorrow, so please come back, join us
then. Until then, guys, have a safe and
fantastic day, and we'll see you on the
charts tomorrow, guys. Take care.