My Trading Game Plan | September 16, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until [music] I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
that made me [music] a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Big day today. The Fed decision looms
large. 2:00 p.m. we'll find out does the
Federal Reserve hike rates by 25 basis
points? That's what the data is showing.
If we take a look here, we can see
there's a 92.7%
chance that the Fed will be hiking at
2:00 p.m. Eastern time 25 basis points.
Now the kicker here is the markets have
already priced that in. What's going to
matter is what the Fed says about future
hikes. Now ideally what we want to see
is we want to see a pretty hawkish Fed,
but a Fed that remains data dependent.
If they can remain data dependent but
hawkish, I think yields on the long end
of the curve actually come down as it
gives confidence that Kevin Warsh and
the Fed is not a stooge of the
president, right? Again, the president
when he appointed the Fed chairman said
I'm only going to appoint someone who's
going to cut rates. Will he defy that
and raise rates? It looks the market's
saying he will. We'll watch at 2:00 p.m.
Eastern time today. So that's the big
headline for the day. We are seeing oil
coming in just a little bit guys. So
again, oil dropping to the downside
here. We're seeing it trade around
$104.12
per barrel and that's on the back of
more supply getting out of Saudi Arabia
through Oman. Not a huge amount but
enough to bring oil in a little bit, as
well as US inventory building just a
bit. So, again, taking a little bit of
the foot off the gas pedal of higher
oil prices. Okay, so we'll watch that.
We'll check in on oil in just a second
as well. S&P futures on the back of a
pullback in oil today, we're seeing also
that affect the 10-year yield. The
10-year yield's pulling back off the
double top, and therefore the futures
are pushing higher. Let's take a look at
the S&P futures here and dive right in.
You can see this is where we sold off
sharply yesterday, kind of traded into
the end of the day. The S&P futures
overnight floating higher as oil came in
just a bit. And really, it's oil and the
10-year, but they are tied together.
Speaking of oil, let's take a look. We
are now just below $104
a barrel. And again, we've talked about
this trendline right here, going back to
December of 2025.
That high pivot connects through three
subsequent high pivots. We then gapped
above it when the war broke out with the
US and Iran, running to 120. We've then
come all the way back into that same
orange trendline, bounced in April,
bounced again in May or in into June,
broke down, and then as we come up, look
at what's happening right here. We're
hammering on that level. That level is
resistance. So, it's interesting how,
you know, right as the Fed's going to
announce their decision, and oil seems
to be unstoppable, all of a sudden, the
narrative shifts. All of a sudden, oh,
the US is building a little bit of an
inventory. We have more oil here. Then
all of a sudden, Saudi Arabia is able to
get out a little bit more oil to the
rest of the world through other ways
versus the the Strait of Hormuz and oil
starts to come in. So, interesting again
just to take note of that to flip over.
All right. So, let's go through
everything here. We have a lot to
discuss in terms of individual stocks.
Before we do that, let's touch base
again on the daily S&P chart. The daily
S&P chart, you guys know me, I've been
kind of a a stickler for this trend
line, this 75 75 75 70 level on the S&P
500. Again, it's a major pivot top here,
here,
and right there. So, you can see across
the board we broke out, we had the big
move up, we've now come in twice and
tagged it, right? Once here, twice right
yesterday. And again, as long as we
remain above it on a closing basis, I
remain bullish on the S&P in the near
term. And I've talked about this also,
how you technically also have a
descending parallel trend line here or
parallel zone that literally marks the
highs of each pullback level and the
lows, which again, if you're a
technician or if you know a little bit
of technical analysis, there's a pattern
where you have a big surge up and then
this kind of sideways choppy to down
motion and it generally forms what we
call a bull flag. So, listen, if we get
below 75 70, okay, then I move into my
neutral stance, my neutral stance. But,
as long as we remain here, especially
going into the Fed where I think the Fed
will hike, but the markets actually want
it. And by the way, I liken the markets
and investors to almost being like a
child, right? And so, think about this,
you know, you can let your child run
willy-nilly and do whatever, but
children crave structure. They crave to
a certain level discipline.
And again, as a parent, you got to have
that. You got to have boundaries. And
that's what the Fed is trying to
reestablish here. Right now, we're in
this chaotic sense of oh, the government
spent another trillion dollars here. Oh,
well, we're above 40 trillion. Oh, look
at the dollar yen. It's getting out of
control. Look at all the debt being
raised by these AI stocks. It's just
debt galore. There's no There's no kind
of friction. There's no boundary on all
of this. Can the Fed reinstate some of
that today? And I think the markets want
that. And it actually should be bullish
for the markets. All right. So, let's
get back to the charts here. The dollar
today is inching a little bit higher,
but again, we are remaining in a pretty
subsequent down up down up movement. If
we do rally on the dollar, you'll see
resistance come in at this ascending
trend line. And that right now sits just
above a hundred on the DXY.
So, keep an eye on that one there. All
right. Um, we've looked at the S&P.
We're going to move into some stocks
making waves today. So, the first one I
wanted to discuss here is JB Hunt. And
this one's kind of a little bit of an
earthquake in the near term, but it's
kind of very been predictable. And so,
let's take a look at what JB Hunt said.
So, JB Hunt falls 10% pre-market after
they announced an earnings miss coming
up. They pre-announced their earnings
aren't about a month, but they
pre-announced saying that they're going
to miss last quarter earnings by 10
almost 10%.
And they're Who did What did they blame?
And you can see it right there on the
image. It's fuel prices, which makes
sense. They're a trucking They're a
transportation stock. They're the ones
that are bringing the TVs to Costco and
Walmart and Best Buy. They are burning
through money because diesel is above $6
a gallon and it's hurting their bottom
line. So again, JBHT falling pretty
sharply here on the back of those
earnings news or that that
pre-announcement I should say. Let's
take a look at the chart. You can see
right now if we go to the intraday, JBHT
falling yesterday on this news, getting
a little bounce in the pre-market
10-minute. Let's go to the daily chart.
The daily chart I do have an isolated
level I will be looking to buy today
right around 235 down to about 230.
Right here. Look at these pivot tops and
then they became support and there's a
gap fill right in here. All of that
should be significant support. Now the
other positive is is that if you're like
me
and you think that there eventually will
be a resolution with Iran and the
straight reopening, then this is a
temporary issue. Yes, it's hurting
earnings, but it's not it's not
something where all of a sudden the
economy's fallen off a cliff, so no one
is buying anything and the trucks aren't
even moving. The trucks are moving, they
just are burning through cash via diesel
fuel. And so if you get a JB Hunt
pullback, JBHT pullback to a reasonable
support level, I actually like it if
you're someone who thinks that oil will
eventually come in. So keep an eye on
that one, guys. Other movers today, we
had Meta. Meta trying to break out. It
did close above this descending trend
line. Will it confirm the breakout
today? If it confirms, you're probably
looking at $690 to $700
as an upside near-term target with
further upside. I could even see this
moving up as high as 750. There's a gap
fill up here that has not been filled.
Now again, am I buying Meta here? Heck
no. I don't chase vertical moves and
it's up vertically, but at this point
I'm watching to see does the breakout
fail and does it become a short or does
it confirm the breakout and then you
just I just step back. I mean, listen,
if you're aggressive, you could jump on
board, but I'm not going to do that. I'm
going to step back and just watch it
until it gets to that next swing trade
level, then I'll attack it when I have
the probabilities in my favor sizeably.
Okay, so again, Meta is an interesting
one there. We also heard overnight that
Intel is likely doing a deal with SK
Hynix to rent out one of their
facilities to build chips here in the
US. So, Intel is up on that news. Again,
why Intel? Why not one of these other
ones? I'm just going to throw this out
there that I have a small inkling that
it could be to garner favor with the US
since the US owns a percentage of Intel.
So, listen, good for Intel. Again,
whether you like government involvement
in publicly traded companies or not, at
least Intel's getting the business, but
again, you'd have to ask yourself, would
there have been another American company
that they would have gone to if the US
did not have ownership there. All right.
Now, again, this is key because SK Hynix
is looking to obviously build more
chips. So, in the near term, while this
is helping Intel and helping maybe the
chip sector rally today,
you have to wonder more chips being made
could ultimately drive margins down. So,
just keep that in mind. Flipping back to
the charts again, Intel Intel's just
been really chopping sideways for a
while, little bit of a gap up today on
this news, but really nothing of
interest. Short term, there's a very
clear resistance on Intel at 106.70,
and then you have your bottom level
really right here, I would say. There's
a good trendline that's ascending
through these lows going right from
here.
So, again, range bound trading on Intel,
which way does it break out as a
technician, I'll be watching that very,
very closely. Okay? Now, let's move to a
couple other things here, guys. So, we
got to talk about Bitcoin. We'll get to
gold and silver. I want to go to the
daily chart on Bitcoin cuz this is key.
So, Bitcoin fell yesterday. Now, Bitcoin
fell yesterday and this was the tough
one for crypto players. But, basically
what we saw is Clarity Act procedural
vote failed. So, again, Washington, one
more time, the politicians could not get
their stuff together and pass
legislation for crypto or at least
essentially this wasn't even the final
bill, let's be fair. This was just to
advance it to a vote and it failed. And
essentially what this means is that at
this point likely the Clarity Act is
dead until the midterms. And I thought
it would pass prior to the midterms to
try to get the vote of the crypto
players, you know, the the the crypto
fans, the crypto investors. You know,
remember Trump courted those same
investors early on before the
presidential election, you know,
promising the world to crypto, really.
Um and so, I was like, all right, well,
it makes sense. You got the midterms
coming up. He's going to try to push it
through again. Well, it's failed. It's
not going anywhere. It's stuck in the
mud until likely after the midterms.
Now, the issue for Bitcoin is that
is there incentive for the politicians
to take this up again after the midterms
when you don't have elections for 2
years? And we'll have to see. I'm not
going to pretend to know the answer for
that. As you guys know, what do I do? I
pay attention to the charts. And if we
go back to the charts here, Bitcoin
technically is still holding this zone
of support. Remember, this is the one I
talked about yesterday saying that it
was imperative that Bitcoin holds this
level, the 76,000 to 75,500 level. If it
breaks down and has a daily close below
here, I would be very concerned that
Bitcoin could dump all the way back to
70 uh 67,000 to 66,000. This pivot high
with this pivot high. So, we'll watch
and see. Right now, look. I mean, it
pierced yesterday, it pierced today. It
is holding on with all its might to try
to save the price here and hold you
know, basically get the bullish pattern.
Cuz remember, this is a bullish pattern.
But bullish patterns can fail. And
again, we'll see if this news continues.
And And again, I think it's not I don't
really think it's negative for Bitcoin
necessarily, especially if you're a view
in a in view of Bitcoin being a digital
gold. What I do think is it's negative
for the sector and decreases optimism
overall, which then can make people less
interested in potentially owning
Bitcoin, i.e. buyers would push price
up. So, that's where we're really kind
of focusing on right now in terms of the
Clarity Act failure. All right, let's
move on to some other charts here.
Taking a look, let's go to gold. Gold is
pushing up. If you remember yesterday,
the head and shoulders pattern
triggered, but I came out in the game
plan and I said, "Guys, I'm bearish on
yields." Meaning, I think yields go
down, and if yields go down, gold is
going to push up. Well, sure enough,
yields are down today, and we're seeing
gold pushing up. Now, that could all
change. It could all change with the Fed
today, depending on what is said. But
here's your head and shoulders pattern.
Okay? There was your break. Now, if it
closes back above, this pattern is
canceled out. All right, so again, watch
to see where gold closes today. It
likely will be the determining factor.
If we start ripping back towards the
near-term highs up around 4,800, or if
it continues down to 3,900.
Same thing with silver. Silver, there's
your head and shoulders pattern. It got
below, it's pushing back above. And
again, the main factor here is this, the
10-year yield pulling back today. That's
getting the giving a bid to gold and
silver and precious metals. All right,
now again, why would I assume or think
that the yields are due for a pullback?
Well, I'm just using the the basics of
basic technical analysis, which is when
you come into a previous pivot high,
there tends to be a rejection in price.
And so, if that holds true, which, you
know, if you look at a thousand charts,
let's say 750 of them are going to work
that way, which is probability, then
that's where I have to go. Doesn't mean
it's going to happen, but it means it's
most likely going to happen. And if
yields pull back, the precious metals
trade is back on. Okay? So, again, we'll
keep an eye on that. Natural gas
continues to move up. Watch this $3
level right here on nat gas. If we can
break through that, you got a lot of
upside, another 10% upside before you
start getting into more technical
resistance on Bitcoin. Now, folks, the
key here is this. I want to say this
sincerely to you guys. Thank you guys.
Every morning you're here at the game
plan. Every day you're supporting
Verified Investing, and it means the
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Time is our most expensive commodity, or
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sharing. So, again, guys, from all of us
here to you guys out there, thank you
again, and I'll see you guys soon. Take
care.