Trading The Close | September 16, 2026

[music]
Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading to
Close. My name is Drew Dosek. Now guys,
today we finally had it. The Fed came
out, announced the rate cut today, but
then they also backed up and said, "Hey
guys, we're probably going to be hiking
another time this year, guys." And the
Fed rate tool probabilities actually
played in line. I said this months ago
that the Fed was looking like they're
about to raise rates coming up at this
meeting. The responses on this show were
like, "No way, Drew. You're absolutely
wrong. There's no way that can happen."
Well, here we are increasing rates when
we entered the year talking about
cutting rates and now we're talking
about increasing them again potentially
in December. Now, here's the wild part,
guys. We may be in for a potential
double hike as I see there actually is a
small percent chance coming up in uh
December that we could push up uh with
another increase on the charts, a
potential double hike. Now, that's a
little far stretch to think of right
now. We need more rates and more info as
far as in uh interest rates, jobs data
before that comes to be. But December is
looking like the time we are going to
have another hike. So let's get into the
charts. We had a lot of action today
mainly after the FOMC. But first off,
the S&P 500 on the SPY daily ETF. You
see here price action down44%
extending itself away from where we were
talking about the previous all-time
highs and price kept tagging it, tagging
it. We even tagged it again today, but
at least we put in a lower low close
from dropping from this range on the S&P
500. Very nice bounce up after we did
pierce the $750 level. You can see here
on the 10-minute chart, right at about
2:00, we had some uh movement down, then
we had a movement up. And really, if you
get into the one minute chart, this was
fascinating, guys. When you see here,
right at 2:00, down, up, down, up, down,
down we go. And then we put in a
10-minute bottoming tail and then
finished the day with a slight bounce,
technical bounce, not getting quite to
the 50% area of this candle. But that
was a very good push towards the end of
the day and mainly just driven off of
technicals because that 750
psychological number and what we're
about to see on the QQQ mainly helped
drive that bounce. But it was a very
good sell um for the most of the part of
the afternoon until those last three
10-minute candles really pumping the
price back up on the charts. Now with us
closing down underneath yesterday's lows
that does increase probabilities of
price moving lower. The thing here is
the rapid recovery towards the end of
the day. How much will that play into
effect tomorrow? Uh will we continue
this bounce and start navigating to tag
uh this in resistance line? That's to be
seen yet because this area is the next
area for support. I was talking about
that when price could come down to 755.
This is the range of the support zone
and we have pierced that and we're
simply rallying right back up. So that
puts us kind of right back at square one
already tagging the near-term support
and bouncing up. So we'll have to see if
we can get back over where we closed
yesterday tomorrow at 757 and 39. Next
up into the cues. Look at this. The cues
are green today guys. Up.3% but look at
the daily candle. The low got down to
$700 on the penny. I've been
highlighting that this gap fill over
here at 77
likely would attract buyers and that's
exactly what happened because the whole
psychological round number in addition
to that gap fill when we had price
plunge we bounced right back up to
finish basically where we did yesterday.
So the damage done by what the Fed
implied that is going to happen in the
future with potential more hikes really
didn't do too much to the cues. We
almost already had it baked in in a lot
of cases. We did have the one rate hike
baked in, but this secondary rate hike
was not. And you would figure that tech
would actually have sold off a little
bit more. They are a lot of growth
stocks. They are spending a lot of capex
to develop and build out this AI data
center in which case they are incurring
a lot of debt and and lending. So higher
interest rates is definitely going to
eat into their margins. But a lot of the
QQQ companies have very very deep
pockets. So those interest rates, they
can be buffered on from hurting them
quite as much as what we could see on
the small cap index. Speaking of which,
real quick to flip over to the IWM, you
can see there that uh index was hit
pretty hard today. Price action dropping
beneath this long-term inclining trend
line. One trend line that was holding
down price ever since November of 2024.
And then we simply tried to break
through by by ramming into this level
several times getting rejected then
ultimately finally got above today. As
you see here we now have confirmed
underneath that trend line. That's a
very significant break. We'll see
tomorrow if we can extend a little bit
further down. The IWM has some fantastic
support down here at $27368.
This is a long-term parallel. If we can
continue seeing selling specifically in
this straight line continue to be
oversold, that would be a prime location
for a technical bounce in the near term
into the SMH. As I said, the cues were
positive. Same with the SMH today. Now,
look where the low wick candle took us
today. Right back down again to that 50%
area of the parallel channel. I flip on
to the 10-minute chart. Look where price
came. So, we had both the Q's and the
SMH plunge straight down into technical
levels of support after being elevated
after the FOMC announcement and press
conference. Well, when this case, the
SMH and the Q's really propelled the
markets back up. Now, yes, the S&P 500
did breach that psychological number of
$750. That two assisted, but there
technically was not a gap fold. There
was not other levels there. It was these
other two indices that really helped
lift the rest of the markets and push
them up. What does that tell you? It
tells you folks are still attracted to
tech. No matter what's happening with
this interest rates, they do see what's
on the horizon. And there's a lot of
spending, not only by them to build out
the data centers, but there's also a lot
of spending by corporations to get their
hands on the latest and greatest AI to
help them excel in this marketplace. So
semis, at least for now, are not
breaking down. We'll see if we continue
to chop in the next two to three days
underneath this declining trend line.
Notice if we were to do that, we would
be putting in bearish consolidation
right on top of support, which would
lead to another leg lower down to the
bottom rail of this parallel channel.
But at least for the near term, both the
Q's and the SMH are remaining positive,
being a glimmer of hope in the markets
that saw a sea of red today. Mainly
because of what we got going on here,
guys. Look at this 10-year yield. Now, I
want to talk to you about this because
yesterday I did explain how the 10-year
yield, we are overbought in the near
term and likely due to pause, pull back,
which would allow the S&P 500, the Q's,
as well as the SMH to push up in the
markets with a little bit of a a relief
with that high interest rate. However,
when the Fed today Walsh came out and
said, "Yeah, we're looking to hike rates
again." Well, that took off all of that
thesis off the table. That means that
rates in my opinion can stay elevated
longer than I anticipated yesterday.
Considering that we're already targeting
December, guys, these rates may stay up
here and chop near this resistance line.
And this resistance line at 5.021%.
We see here on the hourly time frame.
Look at the rocket up right at 2:00.
Everything was looking like we were
trailing down much to what my thesis was
saying. We rallied up into this
resistance. Now it's time to cool off.
Well, that cool off only lasted until
that FOMC announcement where we rallied
straight back up towards the end of the
day to finish right over 5%. So, let me
flip to the weekly time frame and
actually even the monthly time frame to
illustrate and remind you if you if you
haven't viewed yesterday, this may be
new to you. So, look at where the next
resistance levels are located once and
if we get through 5.021%.
We're talking about the next major one
up here at 6.249. 249%.
That's the 382 fib retrace from the move
that we had all the way back here in
1981 with interest rates at a whopping
15.82%.
I'll tell you what, the housing market,
if we not saying we're going up here,
but if the housing market were to go up
to 15%, almost nobody could afford a
home. Specifically with the rates and
the cost that they're at right now, that
would certainly be damaging to the
economy. But we find ourselves here
bubbling up against this resistance back
in 2023, guys. These rates when we're
piercing above this, you can see the
high in 2023 was 5.021%.
The high today 5.041
last seen back here guys in 2007. What
happened then? You remember that was the
great uh housing crisis and financial
crisis that just spelled doom all over
this chart. Now, if you want to learn
more, I'm developing producing a cycles
educational course. It's it's in the
works right now. It's not near complete,
but I peg down as far as housing cycles,
big annual cycles, monthly cycles. I
break all the cycles down so that you
can keep your fingers on the pulse. Not
only buy when the right time is in the
stock market, but then also buy when
you're making big purchases in life at
the right time. Houses, cars, interest
rates, all that stuff. It's going to
help you in life outside of the charts
as well. Really cool stuff. I can't wait
to get it to you. It's going to be
coming hopefully in the next couple
months. So stay tuned for that. Um so
you see the interest rates pushing up,
bubbling to 5.021%
right back to where we were before the
housing crisis. That's somewhat um a
little bit spooky moving into October.
Um, but nonetheless, that's where we are
on the charts with the potential another
increase uh pushing us to this last
pivot right around 5.3%
if we do get that in December. Next up
guys, into gold with the increase in
rates today and also the increased value
in the US dollar. Gold saw some selling
pressure. But what what do we notice
right now? Now we got 30 minutes left in
this day. But um let me remind you too.
Let me remind you. Let me back out. show
you where this parallel channel is
coming from because this breakdown can
be significant. Notice last time we
broke down. Look how long it took for
gold to get back into that parallel
channel. Now, today we were pushing
lower about to confirm underneath this
candle. That was the first candle to
close beneath in this most recent price
action. Today, it's going to be
critical. Do we close under $4,297?
If we do, that increases probabilities
of gold staying under that parallel
longer and pushing down to the next
near-term support at $4,22.
So, that's where my eyes are focused
over the next 28 minutes. We're going to
get our answer. Uh, next up into silver.
Similar situation, guys. We were talking
about this too with this inclining trend
line that price has broken from with
this head and shoulders pattern. So,
this head and shoulders pattern is
active, but it has not confirmed
separating itself away from this
neckline far enough to get underneath
this daily candle on September 14th. If
and when we do that, probabilities
increase for price on silver to push
down underneath this 50% area of the
parallel channel and get back into the
low range of consolidation that we saw
back in the month of July. So, that's
what that head and shoulders pattern is
showing us. What does that mean? That
likely would mean interest rates are
remaining elevated. And I did say that
the dollar was moving up today. Look at
this beautiful. What do we talk about in
this show, guys? What do we talk about?
We talk about a lot of stocks and a lot
of information in the market. But we
also talk about key patterns that we
isolate down for breakout, retrace,
bounce plays. We got two more of those
to go through. Or if you look at the
dollar right here, it's the opposite,
but on the way down, we broke down and
have since retraced and we should fade.
Now, the key thing here, it's already
faded once, guys. This really, this
rally that occurred at the end of August
into September was a rally that took us
right back to this consolidation. Most
of the time when you have breakdowns
from trend lines, price comes right back
up, tags that trend line, and then
fades. But in this case, we rallied
right back up to the consolidation,
didn't have enough to get to the trend
line, and then we faded. So, we already
had that fade play out. But guys, we
find ourselves right now attacking that
inclining trend line. That tells me the
dollar over the next few days likely
will start stalling out in this range
because this uh inclining trend line is
the overhead resistance. And then if you
look back on the chart, what do we have
here? We got a pivot of an MA pattern.
So that lines up perfectly. Two factor
resistance level that we see that should
fade the dollar which should allow gold
and silver to elevate ever so slightly
which could prevent that breakdown that
we just highlighted on both of those
charts. Uh next up guys into Bitcoin.
Now look at this with Bitcoin. The
Clarity Act came out the other day. It
had a 50 votes to 49. So 50 yay 49 no.
They needed 60 as the threshold to pass
the Clarity Act. They did not get that.
What does that mean, guys? Well, the
Clarity Act was going to help permanent
regulatory uh certainty. It was going to
unlock institutional capital and it was
going to be safer and more compliant for
market infrastructure. Basically, in a
nutshell, it was allowing institutions
to then load up into cryptocurrency
since they don't have that regulation
that does refrain or at least keeps out
some of the institutions, but you better
believe they're already participating in
this. So, nonetheless, it was it wasn't
the best of news for Bitcoin. But at the
same point, guys, it was only about a
20% chance at best that this was going
to be passed by the end of the year. So,
what it looks like we're doing is
rolling through the midterms could have
a transition of power in Congress and
the Senate. And then from that point,
whoever's in charge next year likely
will take the reigns and push through
with the Clarity Act. But we're going to
see a chart here in just a few moments
that could present some interesting
buying opportunities. Even if Bitcoin
does start to fade a little bit with
this uh Clarity Act not getting passed,
it doesn't mean it's not going to get
passed. They're working hard for it. And
like I said, the vote was at 50 to 49.
So all they needed was 10 more yeses and
then we would have had this Clarity Act
passed and behind us. So I anticipate
that is something that will be passed.
It's just not going to happen anytime
soon, which gives us some room for other
trades on a chart I'll be talking about
here in just a few moments. But into
Bitcoin again. Let me show you the
parallel channel for near-term price
action for what's going on. We can see
we've got a little decline happening
here on uh Bitcoin. Let me take this
right here to this pivot. And you could
see today we were breaching the 50% area
of uh this declining parallel channel.
Now the key thing for this chart, let me
take away this this parallel because
that's just nearterm support where we
breached yesterday and got back up. The
key thing though is watching this
consolidation. This one red candle
closed at $75,584.
We did not breach the low of this candle
by closing there. Instead, stayed above,
keeping all this bullish consolidation,
at least for now, intact. Once we start
closing underneath that candle, watch
out as next support is at $72,481.
So, it's critical. Watch that candle
from August 23rd. If we close under it,
probabilities increase. We're coming
down lower. But with this uh sharp
decline that we see right here and we
have not closed underneath and we if we
continue to remain above, I could see us
bouncing right back up, staying in this
range of consolidation for Bitcoin. But
key threshold to break right there,
August 23rd candle, watch that like a
hawk. Uh next up, we got US oil. As you
see here, US oil really didn't do too
much off of the news with the FOMC. That
kind of makes sense, guys. FOMC doesn't
control the price of oil. Um, so the
price of oil's volatility is really
derived from what's going on in the
Middle East. And guys, that's not
looking good. It's not looking good
whatsoever. A matter of fact, the Saudi
Arabia East West pipeline was blown up
just the other day. They said it won't
be functional till November from but
from what the pictures I saw, guys, that
may not be ready to go really for the
rest of the year. And I don't even know
how they're going to fix it. But quite
honestly, this is not going to help the
cost of oil to go down, right? Yes,
we're putting in consolidation right
here at this pivot. Also, I highlighted
the fact we are in an inclining parallel
channel as you see with price action
bubbling up up against the top end of
that range as we speak. So, what this
all tells us right now, oil is just in a
consolidation range at the moment. It's
trying to build momentum to eventually
go up and hit this trend line at the top
of the chart right at $116.40.
Now, if that happens, guys, watch out as
far as inflation. I don't care what the
Fed does. If oil continues to rise and
that conflict in the Middle East doesn't
not have some sort of resolution
specifically for oil, this inflation is
going to spread like wildfire throughout
the country. Not only here, but
throughout the world in Europe, they're
already over 3% inflation. Plus, talking
about running out of fuel uh for
airlines. So, we we could have a serious
problem the longer and longer this last
and the longer it spreads over into
other countries like Saudi Arabia. But
that still doesn't take um the
technicals away because the technicals
tell us with this big inverse head and
shoulders pattern that we're headed up
here to 11633. It's just a matter of do
we get any pullbacks first um on oil as
we see we should see a pullback here.
Should have seen a pullback here. Didn't
have it on either occasion at least for
now. Instead putting in consolidation
trying uh to march and head higher. Uh
next up into Nat Gas. You can see N gas
had a pretty decent down day today, but
it's still remaining up here. Beautiful
V-shaped recovery after retesting this
previous support level, which is derived
back here from a pivot in April 8th. So,
so far so good for NAC gas. Not a great
date, but it's really nothing uh
breaking the charts per se. What you
want to see is a bull to see another
returning day much like what you had
over on Tuesday. put in more of that
consolidation that will allow us to push
up to this next level of resistance,
$3.15.
And then ultimately my midterm target
here by $324
on this declining trend line, which also
is is awkwardly shaped, but it is
inverse head and shoulders to a degree.
Um, but actually take that back. This
low range here would disqualify it, but
but nonetheless, it certainly is a break
point in which NAC gas could then
accelerate higher on the charts. All
right, next up into some winners, guys,
into LIIT. LIT, look at this. Up 9.59%
today despite the selling pressure
throughout most of the markets. It did
get jammed up here at this gap fill and
ended up closing the day slightly under
that today. But I bring this back to
your attention because of the rapid
recovery. Look at all of the number of
attempts we've had recently to break out
from this declining trend line. I
imagine if we see LIT up there tomorrow
at 99 or 969 and 73, we could have a
good shot of getting above that level
and this time remaining above that
level. All of this most recently is all
bullish consolidation. Maybe if I flip
it to the weekly, you can see it a
little cleaner. And you can look at this
with this decline coming perfectly into
the bottom of this parallel channel.
What's happened from this low? Straight
up sideways consolidation. That tells me
it's trying to build momentum, trying to
go higher and break up through the
charts. That key level for a break
point, guys, is going to be right here
at $970
86. Speaking of charts potentially
breaking out, guys, look at this. This
is the VIX. This is the volatility that
measures uh the S&P 500 and and how much
flow in and out we can see in the
marketplace. And today we had a decent
spike up here to almost $19, but you see
we retreated back to $17.72.
Today's price movement wasn't
necessarily the news. The news is what I
see here on this chart. I took a pivot
high trend line from March 30th and I
drew that down to this pivot high that
occurred in July 29th. And look what
we've got going here, guys. We don't
have an extreme clean breakout nor a
confirmed breakout, but what we have is
price action attempting to make a
breakout. Now, when the volatility was
the highest today after the FOMC, had we
closed up here and not gotten that
bounce at those key levels on the S&P
Q's as well as SMH, well then we would
have confirmed a breakout and likely
more volatility ahead with that bounce
at the end of the day on each of those
indices. Look how that's saved at least
for right now the VIX from spiking and
going higher on the chart. Monitor this
too because once this VIX confirms I
anticipate we should see and could
experience some selling and it may be
isolated because of what I see on charts
like light and some others that are
potentially showing breakouts. Um but
there could be some volatility on the
horizon. So be monitoring that. Protect
yourself. get into some nice trades and
or look to start trimming some of those
long positions if they are starting to
fail. Now, speaking of failing, look at
this chart, guys. What does this remind
you of?
You guys all should know this by now,
man. Guys, this is a breakout and
retrace play if I have ever seen one,
guys. This is a beautiful one, too, on
the chart of circle CRCL. I bring you
these breakout retrace plays weekly, if
not every other day of this show because
guys, they're so powerful and lucrative.
You don't have to do much to understand
how this price action is breaking out.
Simply rewind the time, scroll back on
the chart. Look at this from this pivot
high, take a trend line, draw it down to
the next pivot, and draw that uh trend
line and extend it out further, ensuring
that pivot stays right there on that
trend line. And then this tells us the
story. You can see when I zoom in, we
had price action break above. We
actually finally confirmed here and
here. Retraced, bounced. Now we're
getting another retrace play. Now, you
may say, "Well, Drew, well, Circle's
tied to Bitcoin." But circle, this is
the interesting part. The Clarity Act
was it had a lot of good things for
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, namely for
institutions to get involved with it.
However, part of the Clarity Act was
going to restrict the revenue building
of Circle. Circle is known for uh
creating USDC and allowing USDC, which
is a stable coin, to be in the
marketplace. Well, they make revenue
when interest rates are higher. Well, we
already looked at the 10-year yield. We
already know the 10-year yield is
pushing up higher. So, with higher
interest rates and this decline because
of the failing of the Clarity Act,
matter of fact, this is a green light
for Circle. Circle investors should be
rejoicing that at least for now, there's
not going to be any reduction for yield
revenue on stable coins. Banks were
worried about this, concerned that
people would take out all their money
from the banks and put them in uh
cryptocurrency brokerages to to gain the
staking percentage off of USDC. So,
they're doing whatever they can to fight
against Circle. Well, this time they
failed. They didn't get their p their
act to pass. That means we're pushing or
kicking the can down the road at least
until next year. I see a breakout
retrace. That's a high probability of a
bounce once investors figure that out.
this circle should be bouncing up on the
on the charts at least to $89 if not uh
reattacking this $100 threshold and
potentially even going higher because we
could have a nice cup and handle pattern
on ourselves if if this does continue
chopping sideways in the near future. Uh
next up uh ASX. Now we got another
breakout retrace play here with ASX. I
caution you a little bit more with this
one as I rewind the time on this chart.
Look where we are on the chart now. Yes,
we could be moving higher on ASX, but
we're already up here. Notice the
difference when we're looking at circles
chart with this breakout retrace. We
have a lot of room to run and make some
good money. Now, if we're wrong, we
don't have that much room to go lower
unless we're talking about brand new uh
lows on the chart of circle. All right,
so that's where ASX and I want to
caution you for any of you finding these
breakout retrace plays on your own
charts. They do work. As we see here, we
broke out, confirmed, retraced, but look
at that bounce. It's been somewhat soft,
muted, and not really fast, right? Well,
of course, with the backdrop of
everything going on with the FOMC, that
kind of makes sense, but you want to see
these bounces hit that trend line and
then jump like a springboard, like a
diver would, and get a good bounce right
there off of that trend line. We're not
getting it. You could have still bank
profits about four or 5% had you bought
this and recognized this and closed it
today. However, um it is just sticky,
not really getting out there. My thought
for this is that the reason being is
that we're already so high up on the
charts and it's just not getting that
investor uh momentum to follow through
with this breakout at least for the time
being. Now, the backdrop can change and
everything can get better. Uh next up
into JBHT, I know Gareth might have
covered this earlier, but I wanted to
highlight this because our PPI uh data
reports that came out last week came in
hot. They came in hot on diesel, guys.
And when you come in hot on diesel, uh,
transportation companies are going to be
under pressure. But as soon as we have
any sort of alleviation in the Middle
East, these stocks are about to pop. All
right, so where are they going to go
now? In JBH, look at this. When I pull
up the Fibonacci sequence retrace, all
right, we've got this from the low over
here to the high. And notice what
happens here. we get a little pocket of
support in between the 382 and the 50%
retrace with this inclining trend line
being a spot that I likely think should
uh halt price selling on this sharp move
down with that level is at $221.52.
Look here on the daily time frame
stretching down to 3103
on the RSI and also look at this last
little piece of technical analysis
highlighting this break when I connect
pivot to pivot to pivot. Look at the
shelf that JBHT was on before dropping
today. So, that is a huge collapse. One
of which I don't think will get back up
this high to retest that trend line. But
this currently is in that sort of mode.
It needs to come down, find support.
Then the bounce will likely take us
right back up to this 236 level around
$258.
But gas and um oil and diesel need to
see some pressure alleviated and their
price come down on the charts. La next
up and lastly ODFL Old Dominion. You got
to look at some of these other freight
companies if JB Hunt is falling the way
it is. And look at this guys. Beautiful
time count developing here on the weekly
time frame. Let me simply pull up my fib
tools and I'll show you right now. We
are into support with the 618 fib
retrace. One thing that I caution you
about now, yes, we could be due for a
short-term technical bounce that could
take us up here to 186.89, this low
pivot. However, when I flip on the
moving averages, guys, look what
occurred right here. The 50 moving
average crossing over uh the 200 moving
average, they did actually get in the
right position to try to go back higher,
but look where price is coming. That is
not good, guys. That is not good.
Getting under that 200 moving average,
you want to see price get back above
that as fast as possible. they were
shaping up right here so that we could
actually get a bounce and remain
positive. But this selling news is
actually pushing it even lower. So
that's why I bring this up to show you
that this will work itself out and is
trying to push price back up, but with
the rising diesel cost, it just can't
get there right now. So that illustrates
this level could be a great spot to
start getting into the position right
around 17415, the 618. Notice the next
level down here at 152. This is a more
conservative route as we do have this
shelf of support that highlights this
top range of this uh price zone at 160.
But then the bottom here at 15298 aligns
with the 786 fib retrace and depending
upon when price gets there might be very
close to this bottom edge of the
parallel channel. So very very strong
support around the 150. A little bit
more aggressive range right here but
that could yield a bounce as we see on
the daily time frame RSI. We are
oversold big time. The weekly not there
yet, but at 23.2
on the daily RSI. That is pretty wild on
ODFL. Now guys, hey, sorry I went a bit
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right, guys. Thank you so much again for
watching and tuning in. Don't forget to
like and subscribe. Send that out to
your friends and family. Tons that we
went over today in the FOMC. Can't wait
to be back here tomorrow to see how the
markets digest all of this information.
Have a great day, folks. We'll see you
on the charts later on.