My Trading Game Plan | September 17, 2026

My name is Gareth [music] Soloway and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives [music] every
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So a roller coaster yesterday and today.
Yesterday the Federal Reserve hiking
interest rates by 25 basis points. We
all knew it was coming. What was a
little bit shocking was just how hawkish
they were. Now yesterday in the game
plan we talked about how I expected them
to be hawkish. I expected them to talk a
good game. But really they came above
and beyond that and that's what saw the
market selling off yesterday afternoon.
The market was caught just like me a
little bit off guard with how hawkish
they were. So for instance, every voting
member voted for a rate hike yesterday.
All right, that was done. What's
interesting is 16 of 18 members voted to
hike rates one more time in the last
couple meetings of the year. And so
right now the Fed funds watch tool, that
is telling us we will get another rate
hike before the end of the year. Now of
course anything can change economically,
we could see things change. Oil could
come down sharply which by the way it is
today. Remember I told you guys I had
shorted oil just a few days ago. We're
starting to see the payout from that
trade. All right. So the Fed decision,
yes it caused an initial sell. The S&P
futures today, let's jump right in, are
soaring today partially because of
exactly what I said yesterday. So again,
what we're looking at is the S&P futures
up 1.28%.
so we are jumping taking out yesterday's
highs yesterday's highs guys. So again
not even mentioning the sell-off that we
saw yesterday afternoon but we're above
and beyond that and remember what I said
I said the market is craving an adult in
the room. What do I mean by that? An
adult in the room means someone who
actually is semi fiscally responsible
shocking I know I mean you know in the
government in the Fed shocking that
someone could be fiscally responsible
but that's what the market's craving.
They're a crave craving the discipline
of someone who is actually watching the
balance sheet watching the debts
watching the credits all of this stuff.
Now I'm not a huge believer that
long-term the Fed is going to be
fiscally responsible because I think as
soon as the economy starts to lose its
shine you'll see the Fed go right back
to the playbook of QE that they did for
years and years and years but at least
this is a confidence builder to not only
the market and market participants but
also those that are buying our debt and
that means rates on the long end like I
said can come down just a little bit. So
speaking of the 10-year yield here today
guys let's jump into that chart look at
the 10-year yield coming in today.
Notice we talked about how technical
analysis was aligning with the
fundamentals of what I expected from the
Federal Reserve so by that I mean we hit
a double top. It was the first hit of
this pivot from October of 2023
when we pierced 5% technical analysis
teaches us that when you have a major
high and when I say major high look
price ran up on the 10-year yield ran
all the way down. That is what we call a
major pivot high. When price comes back
to it over here, the odds favor a
rejection
in the 10-year yield here. All right,
and that so far is happening. Now, it's
also being assisted, it's getting the
good old-fashioned assist from crude
oil. Saudi Arabia here, and this is news
that just broke over the last couple
hours. Saudi Arabia saying one of their
main pipelines that was hit by the
Houthis is going to be repaired and
operational within days. So again, oil
starting to flow again, the narrative
starting to change, which is again,
amazing how the chart on oil
how it predicted into resistance
that price would pull back, and now the
narrative, the news is filling the
reasoning why. Again, this is one of the
fascinating things about charting, how
charts will tell you something's hitting
resistance, and you're like, "Yeah, but,
you know, everything I'm hearing is
telling me it's going to go through
resistance." And then all of a sudden,
news breaks, and it's like, "Oh, wait,
there it is." On the charts. So cool, so
cool, guys. All right, going to oil,
let's touch on that because it is
important. Take a look here, guys.
Remember this ascending trend line right
here cutting through these pivot tops.
We then gapped above it at the start of
the Iranian war. Up it goes, we collapse
back down, and look at what we've been
hammering on for the last week, and now
oil coming in. Oil is right now back
below $100 a barrel. Now, I still am in
the camp that it's going even lower.
Where do I think it's going? I think
it's coming down to this 92 to 93 pivot
right there. That'll be first major
support. So it's still got almost 10%
downside to go. Now, please understand,
it may not go there in a straight line,
it may not go there within a day or two,
but I do think again, based on
technicals, probability is favoring a
move to the downside here on oil
continuing. But nice fall, no doubt
about it on oil. All right, let's flip
back to the S&P 500. Now, this is
amazing, folks.
So, yesterday we broke below the bullish
trend line into the neutral zone.
And yesterday I was looking at this and
I'm like, man, the charts, this is
surprising. Again, the Fed being a very
sharply more hawkish, yes, but that's Is
that really a bad thing? It should bring
down the long end of the yield curve,
the the the high high-level
bonds, the 20, the 10, the 30 years.
But nonetheless, we closed back in the
neutral zone. And I said, you know what?
And I said this to members yesterday in
smart money stocks and ETFs. They get a
daily video, premium video every single
day. I said, let's wait to see when the
market digests this news. I still am
skeptical. Was this a fake out? Did you
have Did the Did the market makers want
to flush out the weak-handed stops and
get them out of their long trades on
this flush yesterday? And lo and behold,
by this morning, markets are back well
above that level. So, amazing. Let's
keep an eye on this. I mean, for all we
know, we'll open up here on the S&P and
we might come back down and close below
it. If that happens, I think it's more
serious. I think you have to go into a
neutral stance on the market. But again,
if we close back above, then to me, this
looks like a liquidity or share grab,
basically flushing out weak hands, and
then they reverse it right back up. And
again, any close above this line, my
bullish bias remains for the S&P 500.
Incredible, folks. All right, so, we've
looked at the 10-year yield here. The
10-year yield, look at that, continuing
to come in now below 4.95%.
The more this comes in, the more the
markets will rally up, the more oil
comes in, the more the markets will
rally up. Yes, we are now positioned for
one more rate hike into the end of the
year, maybe two, but most likely one,
and then there's actually slated to be
one again in January or February. I will
remain a skeptic because again, at some
point, the high oil prices, the higher
interest rates,
there's going to be a point where the
straw is that the straw it's going to be
the straw that breaks the camel's back,
right? I mean, inevitably, how long can
the market stay and the the consumer
stay resilient? We'll find out. I guess
a lot has to do with CapEx spending from
AI companies as well. All right, so
let's look at the dollar real quick. I
think this is one of the most beautiful
charts. I love showing this chart. We
talked about it yesterday, how maybe we
would rally up to this yellow line. Look
at the trend line, ascending trend line,
pivot low to pivot low to pivot low. We
broke down, got a bounce, broke down,
double bottomed, and then where did we
go? We went right back to test the scene
of the crime. And what ends up happening
here? It gets rejected. The dollar is
coming down today. That is helping with
the yield drop, by the way. Gold is
pushing up again, silver is pushing up
again, trying to reclaim that neckline
of the inverse head and shoulders. Now,
yesterday was wild. You know, yesterday
in the morning, gold was above, silver
was above the neckline. And remember,
the head and shoulders is a bearish
pattern. And so, the break of the
neckline was a very scary thing if you
are a bear, or excuse me, a bull on gold
and silver. It's like, "Uh-oh, this is
not what we want to see." But yesterday,
we were back above. If you close back
above, it negates the pattern. So,
yesterday morning, it looked good. Like,
"Okay, it's going to negate it. Okay,
Gareth was saying yields should come
down, so that should help negate the
pattern." And then yesterday, when the
markets collapsed and yields pushed back
up, initially, gold and silver got
smoked to the downside. But then today,
lo and behold, we're ramping up again on
gold. Take a look at gold right here,
back above that key level of around
4,300.
If we can close above here, I do think
it opens the door to more upside on gold
in the near term. Same thing with
silver. Silver was above yesterday, got
smoked on the Fed decision initials
initial reaction, and then pushing back
up today. Can it negate that pattern?
We're going to find out later today in
the charts. All right, natural gas,
we'll finalize with this, then we'll get
into some stocks after we cover Bitcoin.
What stocks am I looking for today? But
natural gas continues to be kind of the
commodity left out in the cold, pun
intended there. Um
basically,
you have seasonality coming, you have
data centers need for energy, and oil's
going nuts. We see silver and gold
volatile, and natural gas just kind of
sitting here. Now again, to me, when I
see complacency, I start to get
intrigued. And again, we are still above
that key level, so I'm still bullish on
natural gas. I'd like to see a break of
$3. That's the key level that really
sets this thing free right here. As you
can see, this pivot top, and actually,
if we extend this out, look at how these
lows here, then we broke down, then
resistance rejected, resistance
resistance rejected. That's your line in
the sand. If we get above that, this
starts to really clean to the upside or
or clear sky where it can really go
vertical. All right, lastly on this
before we get into stocks, guys,
Bitcoin. I told you Bitcoin still is
holding technical support. This low,
look at how these 2 days we closed after
piercing it on the Clarity Act failure
to push that forward, got crushed. Yeah,
then yesterday, amazingly, gold and
silver sold off. Bitcoin actually gained
a little bit, and today Bitcoin is up
again. It is still holding this level,
which again keeps the bullish bigger
bullish pattern intact on Bitcoin. So
again, you can see right here, this is
really again a move up. This is your
flagpole. This is your consolidation and
bullish as it says, bull flags are
positive for price action. Now, keep in
mind, every pattern has a failure.
It does.
If we close below 75,500,
I would consider that a failure, and it
opens the door to a move down to 67,000
on Bitcoin. And so right now, it looks
good. It's hanging in there. Can it
continue to hold and even work its way
up? The bigger thing that you want to
watch if you're a longer-term bull and
you want to see a bottom of the bear
market, the one thing you need to see,
you got to take out this high. This was
your down move and your high move before
the next down move. This is your high
move right now. It is lower. We still
have lower highs on Bitcoin. You got to
take that high pivot out. To the upside,
you're really looking for a break of
around 82,850.
You get above that, now you have a
higher high, and it adds credence to a
bottom being in for the Bitcoin bear
market. All right, on to stocks we go.
Lennar reporting earnings today, guys.
The stock was down pretty nicely,
flushing early on, actually tagging this
key trend line. It's actually starting
to reverse here. I have this amazing
zone here, right down around 74 down to
about 71. Descending trend line.
Major flat bottom horizontal. This is a
great, in my opinion, swing trading
level. It looks like if we go to the
10-minute chart that that first trend
line pierced at 7475 right here. In
fact, we went as low as 73 and change.
Unfortunately, I didn't get in here. It
was too early in the in the morning. In
fact, this was after hours yesterday,
just after the bell. But, nonetheless,
if it comes back in, I like it. I also
like it because I think in the long end
of the yield curve, or the interest
rates on the 10 and the 20 and the
30-year, are going to continue to come
in just a little bit. That's going to be
very good for housing in the near term.
So, Lennar again was down. Now, it's
basically fought back to be flat to
green on the day. We'll see where that
goes. All right, couple other stocks. We
have Intel here pushing up nicely. Watch
to see if Intel can break out above this
level at 106.85.
If it does, I think you have upside all
the way to this gap fill at 122. That
would go with my bullish bias on the
overall market. All right. Um Dell.
Dell, amazing chart. I have this
ascending trend line here. If it gets up
here to about six, let's say 607, I may
look to short as a swing trade just a
little bit there. Lumentum pushing up
sharply. Descending trend line. Right
now, we're trading at 953. If we push up
to about just over a thousand, there's a
major resistance trend line just up
there. Most of these are swing trades.
Day trading wise, again, things are
gapping up, but they're not really that
volatile. Lennar had earnings, so it
gave us maybe an opportunity. Doesn't
look like it right now. And then, a
couple other stocks in motion. One for a
swing trade. I love this level on Bank
of America for a bounce anywhere between
56.90
and 56. Right in here. Look at the pivot
points. That would be a bounce play.
Right now, Bank of America is up. But,
look at the drop on BAC. That was an
incredible drop right there. And then
one other stock in the news this
morning, Generac, which is a generator
company backup power, they got a deal
with Amazon, and that stock is ripping
30% this morning. Looking at the chart,
where would I potentially try to day
trade this? This is a day trade for a
short. Notice these pivot points. Look
at this. From this point here, drag the
trend line right across, right there.
You also have this little pivot right in
there. Anywhere basically between 241
and 243
on Generac, there might be a day trade,
which remember is just intraday. So,
swing trading, for those of you that
don't know, swing trading is holding for
a few days, maybe a few weeks, maybe a
month or so. Uh day trading is you're in
and out the same intraday period. And
so, there's there's it's very important
because I don't I would not be shorting
as a swing trade Generac at that level.
As a swing trade, as a day trade for a
quick scalp, sure. There's opportunities
there potentially. But again,
understanding time frame is instrumental
in good trading. And some of you guys
may not even be swing traders. You might
be long-term investors. In which case,
you buy quality names when they're
beaten down. One example of that, I
actually love Nike right now. Nike pays
a dividend. It's at multi-decade lows
basically. And again, you know, Nike has
such a good brand that inevitably, as
many mistakes as they've made, I think
they can turn it around, and it's priced
basically as if they'll never turn it
around. And so, I love it. You guys know
I'm a contrarian like that. When
everyone else hates on something, when
everyone else has thrown it out, baby
out with the bathwater, I'm like, "Okay.
Now I'm actually interested because
everyone else hates it." Be that
contrarian. That's the key. All right,
guys. I've got to get going. You guys
are amazing for tuning in Monday through
Friday for my game plans. Thank you guys
for supporting all of the shows that are
all amazing here on Verified Investing.
We have more shows live later today with
more alpha and trading opportunities.
Please come back and tune in. I'll see
you guys soon. Take care.