Trading The Close | September 17, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dossett. Guys,
the markets experienced a fantastic
rally today and that was really on the
back of the FOMC yesterday. Now, keep in
mind, we do have options expiration as
well coming about. And so, a lot of
price movement is jockeying to ensure
that those institutions remain
profitable on those contracts. So, part
of that was going on today, but the big
story was the 10-year yield coming back
in. I left you guys yesterday saying
that with the potential for another hike
this year, even reaching three hikes,
guys, that would be wild to see because
we went into the year looking at zero
hikes and looking at cuts. But, the fact
that FedWatch did put his foot down,
said that we are going to hike rates and
that we're doing what we can to get to
inflation. And then saying that we're
probably going to do another hike,
spooked the markets initially, but then
the more they digested this information,
the more credibility they gave him,
which in turn allowed the long-dated
bonds to be bought, which then pulled
the 10-year yield down allowing for the
rally today. I know it's a lot, it's
kind of a mouthful. Let's get into some
charts, break down where these price
actions have moved today and we are
experiencing some chip semiconductor
chip breakouts. Not Pringles, guys, but
semiconductor conductor chips. Let's get
into the charts. First off with the S&P
500 pushing up 1.13% today, very nicely
done. You can see over the previous four
trading days, we are touching this
horizontal trend line that's derived
from the previous all-time high back in
June. We had that is certainly been the
area of contention, whether we're headed
down, headed up, getting rejected, or
even today gapping up, coming down,
testing that level, and getting a
bounce. So, a very nice relief rally. As
I said, mainly spurred by the 10-year
yield and US oil coming back down on the
charts. Now, tomorrow, near-term
resistance will be this gap fill from
September 11th, but guys, look at what I
see here on the chart, and this is
occurring as well as on the Qs. We had
this small downtick on the charts, and
this one single candle is getting above
all of that trend with one move, guys.
So, the positive for the S&P 500 could
come tomorrow with a close above today's
candle, as that will help separate
itself from this negative downward
trajectory. So, nice move there on the
S&P. If we can do all that, the
near-term, medium-term upside resistance
will be up here at $770 on that
declining trend line at the top of the
chart. Next up, the Qs pushed up even
higher. As I said, a lot of
semiconductors received inflow of
capital today. Look at the Qs gapping up
over this gap fill, which helped helped
it maintain and close above it. Now,
yeah, we did sell down through, but we
didn't fill the yesterday's gap. Look
how far away that is, guys. Beautiful
gap up there for the Qs today. Uh also,
much like on the S&P 500, guys, look at
this. Declining trend line right here,
one-day candle close above. So, not only
did we get above that gap fill, we got
above this declining trend line and
closed above it. So, tomorrow, I'm going
to be watching with keen eyes. What do
we do here on the Qs? Do we put a close
higher than today's candle? If so, then
we're going to be targeting this
declining
on the chart. Next up, into the SMH.
Now, guys, you may recall, and any new
viewers, I like watching the SMH as a
leading indicator for risk on elements
in the markets, specifically if the SMH
can get itself above this key 50-day
moving average. Guys, we're getting
closer to it with today's move. As you
see here, we pushed up 2.76%
inflow of capital into the
semiconductors. And then we also have
this 50 daily moving average not far
away at 565.48.
We've gotten above it on a couple
occasions, but we didn't hold [snorts]
it most recently. That's going to be the
major test. Now, the good thing for the
SMH getting up above today was this
declining trend line that you see here
on the charts, guys. This declining
trend line taken from the tops connected
over to the next pivot here in June
30th. And as you can see here, we've
gotten above it before, but we never
have put in two consecutive pushes
higher once getting above that declining
trend line. Each time we had one candle
up, then we went down, then we found
ourselves back underneath that declining
trend line. Then the next day, up, then
we found ourselves back down here in
this lower range parallel channel. Now,
we're getting above that trend line
again today, much like the Qs, guys. Do
we put in another day up? If so, we may
be contending with getting above that 50
daily moving average, which will be key
for near-term bullish momentum in the
semiconductor space as well as the rest
of the markets themselves. So, we're
going to be watching that very closely
tomorrow. Next up, the 10-year yield,
guys. As I described, look at that
plummet. Now, I also I I'm firmly
believing, even with two hikes, even
with the digestion and the credibility
with the Fed, I still anticipate us
staying up more close to this 5% range
rather than coming down and hitting this
4.809.
Uh before we announced two hikes, I was
thinking we were going to just chop
right around in this region and put in
consolidation, much like what occurred
back here on the chart. Charts like to
do what they have just done. That was
making sense, but with two hikes, I'm
now thinking we stay closer towards this
5.021%.
We'll see if we have any further
reduction tomorrow. If so, you can see
here what I've done. I've got an
inclining parallel channel on the chart
of the 10-year yield. And that 10-year
yield support level before reaching
4.809%
is at 4.886.
Now, that makes a little bit more sense.
If we zoom in a little bit more and have
a pullback down to that line and then
receive bounces and coming right back up
to attack that 5.021%.
Anytime we continue to have declines
here in the 10-year, you better believe
we're going to be having rallies in
tech, in gold, in silver, all of those
that are hurt with higher yields
pressing up on the charts.
Speaking of gold, look at that nice
rally on gold today up 1.88%.
Now, for new viewers, too, we've been
monitoring this inclining parallel
channel on the chart of gold. We
monitored it when it broke down, hung
out for a while, a couple months,
underneath that bottom of the parallel
channel. Then we fought to get back in
and then we were on the verge of a
breakdown, but I've been going through
this step-by-step saying, "Guys, we
didn't separate enough from that
parallel channel, nor did we close
underneath the candle that initially
broke that level." So, in not
accomplishing those things, it allowed
this trend line to be more vulnerable
for price action to return right back up
above it, and that's exactly what's
happened today. So, this breakdown at in
actuality gets x'd off the chart. Price
is back in the parallel for gold. So,
near-term bullish
with first area of resistance $4,575
on the chart. Similar story here on
silver, guys. We had a potential break
of a head and shoulders pattern, but we
just never extended away from it. We
were one day underneath, one day above,
the next day underneath, just still
within the range of the first candle and
never extended pushing ourselves down
here to the support level. Had we pushed
down, this rally likely would have
caught resistance right here at this
neckline, but as you see here, the
bounce took us right back through, x'ing
out any sort of potential measured move,
pulling price back down to this lower
consolidation range in the $57 to $56
price target. So, for right now, near
term, that negative
uh target is off the table with now a
clear picture for the next resistance at
$67.99.
And in Bitcoin also that did receive a
rally and you could see here near term
price action. Look at this declining
parallel channel that did catch the lows
on the chart for Bitcoin. But, what I
want to highlight, much like what I was
touching on the other day, look at with
this move move up. This was the measured
move from this inverse head and
shoulders pattern. Accomplished that
measured move of $76,116,
but after it did it, notice how nice
this consolidation was. It hit the lower
range, it hit the top range, it hit the
lower range, back and forth like a
pinball machine, guys, right? And then
we had this low candle that I want you
to focus on the low here, $75,538.
Well, notice the low candle here, it
went lower than it, but where did it
close? This show after all is called
trading the close and it's done so for a
reason. I've had so many people come on
here and say, "Drew, what does it
matter? It closed a dollar above or $10
below." Because probabilities is what's
matters, guys. All of these closes,
every one of these candles has a
boatload of data in it. But,
specifically the close helps increase
probabilities for either a breakdown or
maintaining in that range. And you may
say, "Well, what are you talking about?"
Well, right here on this chart, as I
illustrate, the low was five $75,538.
Price here closed at 70
$75,584.
So, it closed $50 above the low of that
candle. You know what that did? Near
term increased probabilities that it was
not going to break down. And that's
exactly what we've gotten. We've since
seen price action on Bitcoin rally back
up and is now getting resistance at the
50% area of this declining parallel
channel. You can cleanly see that too at
$76,767.
Tomorrow that level is $76,535.
Obviously getting above that will clear
space for us to then attack $78,362
on the chart of Bitcoin. Next up we've
got US oil. As I said the 10-year and US
oil both declined today, but we see US
oil rallying right back up getting back
into that consolidation too. Now we got
29 minutes left till we close. If we
close within these candles, it's still
just consolidation guys. So we did have
a nice two-day dip, but then it would
still be right back into bullish
consolidation. Very similar to what
occurred over here guys. Notice when we
went up we ran up into resistance
right at these pivots. Also it ended up
being the 50% area of this parallel
channel. Well then the next rally up
where did we go? We went right into
these pivots and have since put on the
brakes. But in this location we did so
for only 3 days. You can see this move
was extended because we're pausing and
pulling back a little bit more. Now if
we were to continue down on the US oil
chart, where would we stop? Well this
inclining parallel helps illustrate
those key levels of support. And you
move down here to the 50% area the
parallel, what do you come into contact
with? Look over to the left this high
pivot that occurred here on the chart
back in June 3rd. Now if we continue
moving lower to this key fib retrace at
9319, where does that go? That goes
right here to these pivots that just
occurred. So you can see this would be
the stair-step movement down should we
continue moving down on the chart of US
oil. To the upside got that parallel top
right around 10640. The next stop at
10826 still active inverse head and
shoulders pattern with a completed
target and measured move up here at $116
and 50 cents. So that still looms. Price
action obviously hasn't gotten back down
underneath this neckline drawn
diagonally to the downside and that's
what price would have to do to X out
that opportunity for US oil to get up
there to 116. So what I see on the
chart, no matter what with this little
pullback, US oil is still has high
probability chance of pushing up to $116
on the chart. Next up, we've got nat
gas. Now, nat gas also saw a pretty
decent dip today. Notice the pretty big
wick at the top as well. Now, all in
all, this isn't bad. The chart's not
broken. It's simply consolidating in
these four candles ranges. Notice this
one candle, price action is closing or
at least it attempts It will attempt to
close in the next 27 minutes within that
candle. And if it does so, there's
really no damage to the chart. It's just
another day of consolidation. Now, what
I would be more concerned of if we start
developing more wicks that look like
this where we have price action push up
tomorrow and then sellers take over and
push us right back down to the bottom.
If we start developing multiple of
those, that highlights the fact
investors are willing to start selling
nat gas. I still anticipate nat gas to
go up here and tag this declining
trendline at $3.23.
That is derived from previous pivot
highs that you see here on the chart
back from March of 2026 as well as this
in June of this year, too. So, that area
will be a serious area of contention
should and when more or less when nat
gas gets up there on the charts. Now,
guys, hey, I got to take a break for a
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>> Thank you to both Keet as well as our
junior trader Tabby, which you guys are
going to be seeing more of in the near
future. She's rocking it and doing a
fantastic job. Speaking of rocking it,
let's get back into these charts and
check out what price action we should
see for the near future. Now, look at
SMCI, one of the big winners of the day
of 9.5%,
but you see it's still within its range
that it's been in ever since we've had
this huge surge at the beginning of
August, where we ripped into the top 50%
of this declining parallel channel. What
does this all look like, folks? This is
all bullish consolidation with this huge
move up today looking like it's priming
for a potential breakout. Now, we will
have some speed bumps here at the top
end of this parallel channel at 4205,
but if you just take what couple extra
steps with technical analysis, I'll show
you where we might have a serious level
of contention if we do end up having a
breakout with SMCI. All I did was draw
one trend line as you saw I connected a
pivot to pivot and then I'm doing
another trend line connecting pivot to
pivot right here that you see here on
the chart, guys. So, the first one was
back in October 9th connected over to
this pivot here on June 2nd. The
was right here on June 23rd connected to
this pivot on August 13th and what does
that give me, guys? That gives me an X
marks the spot roughly at $47.41.
A place in which if we continue breaking
up breaking through this bull flag
consolidation through the top of the
parallel in a vertical fashion, we
likely are going to see significant
seller step up to the plate. Now, one
reason SMCI isn't as high as where it
was in the past is cuz they've got a lot
of legal issues that are still
overhanging them. They got into involved
and were accused of selling some of
these restricted chips over in Asia and
then they were repackaged and sold to
China. So, that's still that litigation
is still going on here in the United
States and likely will provide a lot of
a profit takers to get out of the
position if they've been hurt with this
downswing, but consider this since this
low here in March, SMCI is up nearly
106%
guys and just from this most recent
bounce in July, we're up over about 72%.
So, you're going to believe every one of
these steps up, there's going to be
profit takers particularly at the X
marks the spot up here at 4741.
Next up, chart on breakout watch, guys.
Look at Intel pushing above this
declining trend line on the chart. Now,
we had a huge surge in semis today. A
lot of which came from the beginning of
the day that illustrated from Goldman
Sachs released a note projecting the
global AI server market could reach 1.3
trillion dollars by 2030. So when
investors saw the 10-year yield
declining, they saw that note, they then
started just buying semiconductors and
one of which that was bought was Intel
up 7.67%
putting in a nice daily close above this
declining trend line. So the key for
bulls put in another daily close above
today's candle. If you notice that can
tag the next resistance level at
$112.07.
So it will be a mighty push if Intel
Intel can accomplish that, but what
happens if it does guys? Then we have a
breakout retrace potential play on our
hands. So be mindful of this Intel
chart. Put this down, put it on your
notes, put some indicators and
reminders. That way you can check back
on it tomorrow, see if we did get a
confirmed breakout and if so set the
alerts for when price comes back in so
you can buy that for that breakout
retrace bounce play. Next up, another
similar situation guys. Breakout
scenario on AMD and again this is just
one candle. So we got a lot of work left
to do on AMD tomorrow to push up above
today's candle and close and it likely
if it does that, likely will run itself
into resistance right here at $566.41.
That's the opportune time for price to
pull back and then give us our
opportunity to buy that retrace for the
pending bounce. So be watching AMD in
the coming days, see if we get a close
above today's candle and then wait for
that pullback to buy for the continued
move up and potentially attacking new
all-time highs on that chart. Another
chart also pressing up against a
potential breakout. Now this one's
already up there at the top of the
chart. This is HPE guys. Now let me
scroll back. Look this this stock look
like looks like it's been dormant ever
since 2016 then then all of a sudden it
got the defibrillator right here on
April of this year and shot straight up
on the charts. Now, a lot of investors
are focused around the capabilities of
AI in developing or the capabilities for
HPE to utilize AI in the future. Much
like how Dell's pushed up a lot
recently, HPE is also getting the inflow
of capital for its potential use in AI
in the AI space. Now, what do we see
right here? Well, we clearly see an area
rejection pivot to pivot to pivot. So
far it has held, but if you notice, this
has now been up in this range once,
twice, three times, and four times. The
more times we continue to pound on this
60 to 62 dollar range, the more likely
we're going to break through to go above
that. So, that level to watch tomorrow
is at $61.85.
We put in a daily close above that, that
then makes HPE on near-term breakout
watch, much like what we've just
explained on Intel and AMD. Now, lastly,
with Apple guys, now this note from
Goldman Sachs this morning
also reported that Apple is developing
AI inference servers built around its
new M8 Ultra chip. Not the M5, the M8
Ultra chip, in which they're going to
start working with Nvidia to build this
out. So, Apple is going to be getting
back into the server space. So, look at
this chart here on Apple. As a matter of
fact, let me back out on time so I can
show you what's really going on here,
because this is really the nature of
this show, all right? So, you can see
this inclining parallel channel dating
all the way back here to January of
2023.
We had price hit the bottom, the top,
pierced the bottom here on liberation
day news in April of 2025, then we hit
the top again, came to the 50, and have
since navigated the top end of this
parallel with attempts to break out of
this chart. Now, where could price go
beyond this? Cleanly, I can see here's a
here's going to be a destination and
likely a near-term resistance level
coming up through these candles and
tagging right in this range about $350.
But, I get back into the daily
timeframe, what is this, guys? This is a
breakout, retrace, and it lingered it
lingered it lingered and bounce play on
Apple. So, you can see here beautiful
attempt for Apple to remain above this
parallel channel. The all-time highs are
not far away. Matter of fact, we kissed
that gap fill and filled it today from
the candle that did make the previous
all-time highs. This tells me Apple is
likely looking for brand new all-time
highs yet again with resistance coming
up here near the $350
range for the near to mid-term. All
right, guys, that does wrap up Trading
the Close. Thank you guys so much for
tuning in today. Don't forget to like
and subscribe to the video. Send it out
to your friends and family so they too
can learn technical analysis on the
charts. And that does wrap up Trading
the Close for the week. Don't forget to
tune in tomorrow for Garrick Allaway's
weekly wrap-up where he'll go through
all of the key movers throughout the
course of the week. Aside from that,
can't wait to see you guys back here on
Monday. Have a great weekend and we'll
see you on the charts, folks. Take care.