My Trading Game Plan | September 18, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway [music] and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
[music] beat hype and narratives every
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Happy Friday. My
name is Gareth Soloway, chief market
strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
All right. Bank of Japan raising
interest rates by 25 basis points.
However, we're seeing the yen weaken
significantly against the US dollar. Why
is this happening? The big story of the
day, Japan, basically the bank didn't
guide towards raising again
significantly. And this is a big change
in character. So, you have central banks
that have been raising rates across the
board. The US did, the ECB, the Japanese
central bank did. And really, everyone
was expecting a continued hawkish stance
from Japan. It didn't happen. Now, is
this a crack in the glass? Is this a
crack in the ice that's going to signal
to other central banks they may not want
to raise quite as much as everyone's
anticipating? We're going to find out.
But I'll tell you one thing, this is
spooking the US bond market just a
little bit. And we're seeing interest
rates start to climb back up. In other
words, they don't trust these
governments. They're saying, "Hey,
listen. These governments may not be
serious. These central banks may not be
serious about getting their debt under
control." And that means that the market
will push rates up even if they won't.
All right, let's jump into the futures
here. We have a lot to discuss. Today is
triple witching, the final expiration of
the third quarter. We'll discuss that.
But look at the futures here. This is
fascinating. So, this was yesterday's
price action. We dipped early in the day
and then we kind of rallied up. It was a
solid update on the S&P 500. Overnight,
markets were doing nothing and then we
caught a beautiful rally in the late
night, early morning this morning and
then all of a sudden we peaked and the
S&P futures have fallen off a cliff.
What's causing this? What do you guys
think it was? If you're talking about
the Bank of Japan, you would be exactly
right. As soon as the Bank of Japan
showed that they are not as hawkish as
they probably should be, the markets
started to see the 10-year yield in the
US go up and then the markets did the
opposite. The markets in reverse went
down when the 10-year yield shot up.
Take a look at the 10-year yield on the
US. It is back to 4.984%.
But more importantly, look at this
intraday chart. Here's 300 a.m. Eastern
time. That's when yields were actually
down in the overnight. Look at the move
on the 10-year yield. Now, flip over to
the ES futures chart. Here's three in
the morning on the S&P futures. Notice
that as we've seen the yields go up, the
stock market has declined. Flipping back
to the 10-year yield, 10-year yield
rallies to the upside here and moves
higher. And again, what happens to the
yield or the the S&P futures? They head
right down. So, this is really a cat and
mouse game being played between the
10-year yield or interest rates here in
the US and the S&P futures. One goes up,
the other goes down. It's that simple,
unfortunately. And again, it's not
simple, obviously, because you're
dealing with massive amounts of debt.
Now, let's break this down on Japan. So
when you have 230%
debt to GDP, can you afford as a country
to let your interest rates go up
indefinitely?
Think about the amount of of interest
that you're going to be paying on your
debt. It's going to your
economy. And so I get why the ECB is
like or I should say the Bank of Japan
is is a little bit nervous about what's
going on with rates continuing to go up
because it will eventually break their
economy just like here in the US. We see
the government very nervous about the
long end going up and they're trying to
intervene. The the problem is this is
that this is an issue that we made all
of us the politicians the governments
etc. Now, you and I probably not so
much. But our government that we
elected, that's just the nature of the
beast. We have voted for governments
that have not put fiscal responsibility
as a top priority and now they're
literally caught between a rock and a
hard place. Do you let rates go up and
then the market says, "Okay, they're
getting their house in order, but it
bankrupts you, or do you artificially
put push rates down, which inevitably
causes a catastrophic result." All
right, listen. It is not good out there,
folks. Listen, and again, I want to be
clear. This doesn't actually change my
bias on the S&P. As long as we maintain
the levels, I'm still bullish on the S&P
near term. But it just continues to
reinforce that down the line, there is
going to be catastrophe. And that's what
I'm continuing to prep for right here
and guide you guys to understanding the
ultimate outcome. Maybe years down the
line, but it is coming and you got to
start to prepare. All right, back to the
charts we go. So, the S&P futures again
moving lower this morning um after being
up sharply going to the S&P daily chart.
Again, we're only slightly down. So,
we're only going to open down here. We
remain above the bullish trend line
here. So, as long as we maintain above
here, remember we dipped on that panic
selling on the back of the Fed. And then
again yesterday we rallied right back as
yields pulled back on confidence that
fiscal adult fiscally was going to be in
the room aka Kevin Worsh and the Fed
were going to do the right things to get
the situation under control. Now the
Bank of Japan has just thrown a wrench
into that of will central banks really
follow through. I've been a skeptic
longer term and I continue to be a
skeptic longer term. All right, so
that's where we are guys. Again, we'll
continue to monitor, but S&P 500 still
above the bullish bias line, but again,
any sort of move down here, I go to
neutral and then below here, watch out.
That's your emergency pull the parachute
run for cover trend line on the S&P 500.
All right, next up, let's look at the
dollar. The dollar is up into
resistance. Again, we talked about this
yesterday. ascending trend line
connecting the major lows here through
this low here and that's where we
currently are. And then look at this
little pivot point right up here.
Beautiful flat horizontal zone and the
dollars into that. I would continue to
expect rejection in price off of that
level. All right. Now, I did talk about
Japan, right? And we talked about the
dollar yen. I want to show this because
this is really dramatic. Remember the
dollar yen had a big correction in it.
meaning that the yen strengthened
significantly against the dollar
recently that is being unwound over the
last few days culminating with the
decision from the boj today. Taking a
look here we have the Japanese uh the US
dollar JPY or the dollar yen popping
significantly today. we had this big
drop and now again with any sort of
hesitation from the BOJ the yen is
weakening against the dollar and that's
what this is showing when this chart
goes up it tells us the the yen is
weakening against the US dollar now if
we rally up there'll be significant
resistance right up here if we continue
up but right now it's been a significant
move to the upside all right now we
talked about the 10-year yield the
10-year yield I do want to show the
daily chart because this is really where
it matters. So again, this is your daily
candle. Nice pop right back up almost
negating yesterday's pullback post Fed
of the 10-year yield, but we're right
back up today. And the big thing that
we're watching into next week, I was
thinking next week might be a little
relaxation, maybe not so crazy. There's
not a huge amount of earnings next week.
In fact, very quiet on earnings. Um, and
not a huge amount of economic data.
We're not to the jobs report yet. And
then this right away if we're going to
go retest this line, it could be a
massively important week next week.
Watch the 5.02%
on the 10-year yield. If we break above
that, there is literally no major
resistance in the immediate term. We got
to flip to the weekly chart to go all
the way back. And you'd be talking about
5.3%
to 5.5%
on the 10-year yield. And again, folks,
this is the issue that we just talked
about is that you have the lack of
fiscal responsibility starting to come
home to roost. Whether it's in Japan,
whether it's here in the US, you have
the government now panicking to try to
control the yield curve and push the
long end down versus keep the the short
end doing its thing. We saw a one-day
reprieve. I'm hopeful that the Fed or
something comes out that reestablishes
after this Bank of Japan decision that
maybe the fiscal responsibility is there
a little bit. Although again folks,
longer term, I don't believe it. Not
even from the Fed, not even from Kevin
Worsh. They'll go back to their playbook
the second the economy weakens
significantly here. And let's be fair,
with oil where it is, with diesel where
it is, hitting a new all-time high of
$645,
it is very possible that the economy
over the next couple months will weaken
significantly. All right, let's speak
speaking of which, let's go to crude oil
here. WTI was down early in the day. It
is now green on the day. The market just
can't buy more than a day reprieve on
any front here as again oil is now green
trading above $102 a barrel in early
trading. All right. Now, we still have
good significant resistance here. So, if
we draw a trend line through here,
there's still good solid resistance
right in this vicinity. But suffice it
to say is that again even just going
back to 106 could be a problem for the
markets in the near term. And remember
oil going up, it also pushes the 10-year
up. So it's not just the fear of fiscal
irresponsibility emerging again, whether
it's Bank of Japan or here in the US or
anywhere else, but it's also oil prices.
the longer oil stays higher, the longer
diesel stays at now $645
a gallon. Think about all those Amazon
trucks that come to your door. Think
about now some of them are electric now,
which is nice, but again, all of the
trucks that are driving goods all over
the country, they are burning gallons
and gallons and gallons, tens of
gallons, hundreds of gallons a day at
$645
on diesel. And that is troublesome.
Think about airlines flying and the cost
of jet fuel is skyrocketing. All right,
all of those people out there looking to
fly for vacation coming Christmas are
going to be looking at much higher uh
plane ticket fairs out there as well.
And again, the question is eventually
this gets passed through to our food
supply. So you go to the grocery store,
remember all those vegetables, all that
stuff had to be trucked to that store.
It's all going to get passed through to
the consumer, to you, and to I.
Remarkable. All right. Uh, let's go into
a couple other things here. Gold today
is showing a little sign of strength,
inching up. This is good to see on gold,
and I'll tell you why is because yields
are up and the dollar's up. So, if gold
can actually ek out a green day when
this is happening, that's a good day for
gold. We're also seeing it in silver
today. Now, silver. I have this
intriguing new trend line. I'm watching
descending from the all-time high to
this first pivot to the second pivot.
Are we about to break out on silver to
the next leg up? Let's watch this
closely today on the chart of silver.
Now, as I mentioned folks, today is
triple witching. Triple witching is the
third Friday of the third month every 3
months in the market because it's a
quarterly expiration. So you have
multiple expirations. Citadel, the big
financial player, estimated that today
options, the amount of options expiring
will be the biggest ever. All right, 7.7
trillion or more in options. That's
trillion with a T in options expiring.
What does that mean for us as traders?
Later today between 130 and probably
330, look for incredible swings in
stocks. Now, is it tradable? Not so much
because it's not based on anything like
it's more the big money is going to push
around charts and stocks and even
commodities to maybe a little bit of an
extent because they're trying to
maximize their profits. So it's not like
oh this technical this technical level
can work. We can wipe out a technical
level very very quickly because an
institution is saying hey well we got to
get priced down here so that we make the
money we want to make on these options
contracts. It's kind of that shady game
of options. It's why I I love options. I
trade options on occasion. In fact,
we're launching a great options service
in just a few weeks. But at the same
time, you also have to know the game.
The game can be brutal if you don't know
what you're doing and you don't know
what the institutions are doing in the
options market. Remember, institutions
sell the options to the public. 99% of
all options being sold are sold by
institutions to retail. So, you have to
understand there's a game there. There's
a lot of money they can make if those
options expire worthless, which means
it's a game that's rigged to some extent
if you don't know the game. Understand
that, guys. And again, that option
service should be debuting soon. All
right, couple other charts here. I got
to say the copper chart looks very
intriguing here. Classic retrace to the
scene of the crime. We have this wedge
pattern that broke down. I was short
copper up in here. We did take profits
when it came down here with smart money
uh commodity and minor members. I'm
going to look to reshort copper probably
today if it inches up just a tiny bit
into that trend line. Uh I'll use the
CPER. That's usually been my vehicle. Uh
which is an ETF that is tracks the
copper index fund. All right. So watch
copper here, guys. I do think it's a
good opportunity on the short side.
Let's look at natural gas real quick.
We'll touch on oil again as well, but
NAT gas today is showing again just
nothing going on. And really what's
remarkable about um natural gas is that
really from July, early July price has
done almost nothing. All walk crude oil
has had this massive move up. Is at some
point going to be is it going to be the
day where natural gas starts to really
participate? We'll watch and see.
Obviously, the dynamics are different.
the natural gas issue isn't the same as
what's going on in the Middle East. But
at the same time, seasonality is coming.
You have a shortage in Europe that's
massive. All of these things going on.
Speaking of which, and this is a big
one, the refiners, the crack spread has
been so good, and we've even with oil
pulling back the last couple days, the
crack spread's gotten better for them.
So, their stocks have actually gone up.
Valero, MPC, uh, Philips 999, which is
PSX. But this is a this is an outlier. I
just heard about this today is that in
Europe, they're talking about
instituting a windfall tax on the
refiners because they're making so much
money. That could signal a change in
narrative in those stocks where you
could start to see those stocks starting
to fall as speculators run for cover. If
it was if it was passed if it was
announced and passed a windfall tax even
just out of Europe, these stocks would
probably drop 15 to 20% as again it
would wipe out a lot of the profits that
they are making. All right, so again
just keep that in mind. We'll continue
to follow that story here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
All right, I have a bunch of charts I
want to go through, but before we do
that guys, I want to touch base. This
show along with other shows here at
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All right, let's jump back into the
charts and take a look here. Couple
stocks on the radar. We'll get to
Bitcoin in just a minute, but let's go
through a couple of these stocks. I'm
watching Apple closely. Apple yesterday
filled this gap. Look at the big gap
here. and then another gap here. This
big drop on the back. I believe that was
earnings if I'm if I remember correctly.
Um but either way, the gap fill now
signals that I am now interested in a
swing trade short on Apple. I haven't
taken a position yet, but I'm going to
be eyeing this today. The iPhone, the
new iPhone apparently is starting to
take orders, pre-ell, and the the amount
of delay. So, it shows how much demand
there is. It's slightly better than last
year, but it's not overwhelming.
Probably because gas and diesel prices
are so high and everyone's getting
stretched, right? But the point is is
that this move back up might have gotten
a little extended. The chart is now
signaling a short on Apple and I am
listening very closely to that chart.
Netflix got downgraded today. I have a
key level here. We're almost at this key
level around 7150 or so. That is the
first area of support. They got a
downgrade today. I believe, and this was
kind of sad to see, but it is what it
is. The analyst downgraded the company
to a I believe it was like a $52 price
target. So, it's not a good price
target. They highlighted the second half
of the year, their their quality of
content degrading, maybe not as being as
strong, and lots of other factors out
there, which listen, in all fairness, is
is kind of true. I don't know how many
of you guys have been on Netflix, but I
I am struggling these days to find good
stuff to watch. Maybe there is some,
maybe I just don't have the time to
research it at this point. But either
way, the downgrade is pushing the stock
down. Do I like it as a swing trade
here? No. But as a day trade, it is
peing my interest today. So Netflix is
on the radar. Crowd Strike as a swing
trade. I love this technical trend line
up here. Doesn't mean it won't go a
little bit higher, but we're starting to
get into overbought scenarios on the
cyber security aspect of the AI trade.
I'm looking for an eventual swing trade
drop down to 192 to 188. Gap fill
ascending trend line right there. We
talked about Valero. Valero trading
basically flat in the pre-market. Again,
look at the rise just going back to
June. This stock has rallied a whopping,
let's see here, 77% in just a few
months. And again, you looked, if if you
showed me this chart, I'd be like, "Oh,
that's got to be like the latest hottest
AI stock, right? I mean, they must have
technology that's going to cure cancer.
No, actually, they probably have stuff
that's causing cancer. But that's
besides the point. The point is is that
this stock has gotten way ahead of its
skis, especially now that the political
atmosphere is starting to look at who's
making so much money off of high gas
prices and diesel prices, and the
politicians will start attacking these
players and talking about that windfall
tax. And then also remember historically
we've seen crack spreads get big and
wide with them making lots of money and
then it shrinks back down. And so
inevitably these stocks have boom and
bust cycles much like cyclical players
and they will have it as well. So I
continue to like it. I am short Valero
myself and I do think these will come in
heavily over the coming weeks and
months. All right, couple other ones to
talk about. We didn't talk about Bitcoin
yet so let me talk about it. Then I got
to get to my trading room as the market
will be opening. Look at how Bitcoin
held the major support. Even with the
clarity act basically done for the year,
Bitcoin is starting to push back up and
the tell was that it held this level.
This is still a bull flag on Bitcoin. I
still remain bullish. In fact, in smart
money uh crypto where I show my live
account in on my of my crypto positions,
I am long Bitcoin. We got long right
above 76,000 right here. I said, you
know what? Let's buy it right at the
level. Worst case, we stop out if it
gets below and I lose a couple hundred
bucks. But let's jump in here. And so
far, it is working out beautifully. And
we're seeing crypto like Zcash,
Hyperliquid. A lot of these cryptos are
going up sharply. Although, I will say
that I just shorted a little bit with
Smart Money Crypto on Hyperlid, upper
end of a parallel. If you're part of
that service, you see the position I
took. All right, I got to get going
here, guys. Happy Friday. I'll be back
with the weekly wrap-up later today at
4:20 p.m. Wild stuff in the markets.
Hang on to your hats, folks. We're here
to guide you at Verified Investing. You
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Thank you so much, guys. Have a great
rest of your day. Take care.