Trading The Close | September 21, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Doseki. Hope you
guys had a great weekend. Back to the
markets we go and back to potential
all-time highs is what we're talking
about today, guys. Incredible stuff. I
know one stock did, AMD pressed higher
and made brand new all-time highs.
Meta's muse was really the story of the
day, rallying tech, helping tech to push
up higher. A lot of companies,
semiconductors in total, are all in the
green pushing up. Semis, too. We got
some good details to go over today,
guys, cuz that bullish sentiment may be
flipped on as of today. Let's get into
some charts, guys. First up with the S&P
500. As you can see here, what a
monumental day and push higher we
experienced today with the S&P 500 of
1.55%.
But notice, one thing I've I've paid
attention to today, the volume was not
really there. We had 49 million shares
traded on the spiders today. Just
flipping it on, that's not a heavy
breakout scenario day. Now, you can see
we had heavier volume back here and it
really wasn't standout, you know, very
low volume, but it just wasn't a big
rallying cry push with investors all
loading in and pushing forward in the
markets. But still, we find ourselves
above this declining trend line most
importantly. And what that does, guys,
I'll flip the volume off, that then
brings into play all-time highs as early
as tomorrow with this horizontal trend
line that I just drew on the chart at
$779.37.
Pushing up into that area is easily
accomplishable tomorrow because of what
we did today. Look at that huge gap up
and and move forward that we had. We
could easily come up in there and be
talking about brand new all-time highs
while the 10-year yield is just slightly
under 5%. Remarkable how resilient the
markets are specifically into tech.
Speaking of tech, moving into the QQQ,
which is the Nasdaq 100, look at the
monumental push here on this chart, too.
Up 2.77%.
Notice what it was able to do. It did
extend further than the S&P 500, but I
remind you, look what happened to the
S&P 500. It had to fight to get through
this declining trend line throughout the
day. The Qs did not. Instead, they
gapped up on top of that trend line, and
then like a springboard, like a diver on
a springboard, just bounced on it and
went much higher on the charts. Talking
about all-time highs very, very close on
the Qs right at 748.65.
That's the near-term destination should
we continue marching up as early as
tomorrow to tag that to find some
resistance. Now, what could give the Qs
and the S- S&P 500 more room to run is
what's occurring here on the SMH. Just
like on the Qs, guys, look at this gap
up over resistance. Resistance that on
Friday was in play, the top of this old
parallel channel, and we just gapped up
over it. Instead, we actually sold down
and caught support on the top of it this
morning, and then rallied all the way up
pushing through this gap fill from
August 17th. Now, here's where
everything gets a little bit more
interesting. Actually, before I flip
that on, let me highlight the fact of
this declining trend line right here
that you see from the all-time highs on
the SMH back on June 22nd. Notice how
when I drew this, I drew it down to the
next pivot. Notice how when price came
up again, it attempted to go through,
did not close above. On the very next
attempt, we actually got through, and
then the following day, we didn't
succeed in pushing higher, getting
extension and away from that declining
trend line. So, in turn, price just
found its way going right back down.
Another 1 day up, and then we had 3 days
down. Now, we have 3 days in consecutive
pushing order upward on the chart. This
is the first time this has happened
since the all-time highs. So, right
here, this is a big change in character.
We're now starting to confirm a breakout
from this declining trend line. Then,
when I flip over the simple moving
averages, guys, the blue is the 50-day
moving average. This is the first time
as well that we've gotten out two daily
candles pushing up consecutively and
closing above that 50 simple moving
average. Now, guys, what this does is it
turns on the buy switch for a lot of
other institutions, a lot of which
refrain from buying any sort of stock or
index until price action can get
properly above the 50 daily moving
average. Now, there's a couple more
moves that are required for more
institutions to hop on board, and that
would be this yellow 20 moving average
that's currently sitting at $559.60.
If that were to get above the 50, and
then that kick-starts even a bigger
rally and push higher up on the SMH.
Now, the SMH is as you may recall, I've
said this is my leading indicator. So,
right now, I've got a positive signal
telling me that we have a breakout on
our hands. Now, we're watching for
tomorrow on the breakout from this
inclining parallel channel. Putting in a
daily close higher than today would
accomplish that. Next resistance 607.58.
From that point, watch for any sort of
retraces to the top of the parallel.
That could be your buying opportunity to
continue with this rally, but be mindful
of these moving averages and the details
that I just went over for you on this
chart to ensure we remain in bullish
momentum when you're buying the SMH.
Next up into the 10-year yield. As you
see here, guys, we did decline, but we
didn't plummet down on the charts, and I
was anticipating this as well. I talked
about this last week, how we ran up into
5.021%,
and before the FOMC, I was thinking, all
right, if we have one rate hike and
maybe one on the horizon, not a certain
date given yet, then I I see that we
could just have a nice pullback and
bounce around in between 4.809%
However, they also implied there could
be another hike this year. So, two more
hikes? Guys, that tells me that yes, we
should get a pullback here because we
were overbought on this chart going into
5.021%
but given that we may have another hike,
I'm not seeing us getting all the way
down to 4.809%
anytime soon. In fact, I'm anticipating
us potentially bouncing off of this
4.876
and then returning right back up here to
5.021. We'll see how this all pans out
in the coming days with trading. Most
importantly, once we get new inflation
data prints coming next month. Next up,
we've got gold. Now, gold and silver
both dropped in the charts today and you
might be saying, "Well, wait a second,
the yields came down. The precious
metals were heavily dependent on yields.
Why didn't gold and silver push up
higher?" Well, as as few and like many
stocks and also commodities, there are
there is an a very large entangled web
of circumstances that can help price go
up or down. The fact that oil was
dropping actually led most investors,
and some of which, not to rush into
precious metals and because it's not as
much as a safe haven against inflation
with oil coming down. So, that's why you
had somewhat of a muted if not slightly
down day on both gold and silver. So,
let's look at those charts. Where did
gold go to at the low? Well, it went
back down to the bottom of this parallel
channel. This trend line that you can
see drawn out on the weekly time frame,
you can see this bottom rail of this
parallel channel has had a lot of
contention when price broke beneath it,
but now we're fighting to get back above
and as I stated earlier, that 10-minute
candle today came down, pierced that
parallel channel, and since never looked
back. It went back up on the charts and
has since chopped sideways. So, the good
thing near term for gold, it's holding
this parallel channel. Now, if we
continue hitting it day after day in the
coming days, that will weaken this
parallel area of support and allow for a
break with the next level of support not
far away at the very recent lows from
September 16th at $4,234
right on that inclining trend line. Next
up, we've got silver and as you see here
with silver also, somewhat of a slight
day today, but still holding its own and
away from the most recent inclining
trend line of support. That is the area
of support should we see any further
decline tomorrow, $64.32.
Otherwise, if you're a bull, you want to
see silver just maintain right here. Put
in bullish consolidation, build the
momentum to break through this big red
candle pivot high at $67.94.
I talk about those big red candles
often, it's because of situations like
this when we get a rally up, we start
putting on the brakes once we get close
to that high end of that red candle.
Next up, guys, big story of the day as
well, Bitcoin. Look at this rip up 7.64%
and it all started right here on Friday.
If you remember last week, I illustrated
this declining parallel channel and then
on Thursday, look where we were and in
the matter of four trading days, my
goodness, this whole chart literally has
changed from the analysis down here when
we were in the lower 50% of this
parallel and has since testing breaking
this measured move. And I also
highlighted on this show this low candle
right here on August 23rd was 75,538.
We put it in a close on September 15th
above that low. That was near term
positive. Had we put in a close
underneath that low, that would have
shift probabilities for more downside.
These are the minor nuances in technical
analysis, things I go over with you guys
Monday through Thursday right here on
the show. It's just a matter of if if it
up or not, is that helped Bitcoin remain
buoyant and push up on the charts. Now,
where is Bitcoin going now? All right,
let's back out to the weekly time frame,
illustrate where this inclining trend
line is coming from. Guys, this is the
neckline of this massive head and
shoulders pattern on the chart. That
neckline comes up this week at $89,228.
That's the near-term resistance on
Bitcoin. I expect to see resistance and
at best some sideways consolidation if
not a little bit of a pullback, even
testing these previous highs around
$83,000
after this massive push up that we see
here on the chart of Bitcoin. Uh next up
into oil as already highlighted with
both gold and silver decreasing on on
their charts, oil also did too. Now, I
fully anticipated support here at 9319
to hold by the end of the day. We got 30
minutes left. It's only about a dollar
and 20 cents away. That could end up
being the case, but I want to pull you
into the 10-minute time frame to show
you what happened this morning when
price first came down and hit that
support level, pierced it, got a good
bounce, put in bullish consolidation,
retested, got back up, and then ended up
failing right here at 9:00 a.m. this
morning Eastern time. And you can see
here, since then a very nice decline,
10-minute bottoming tail with a in
spirit of inverse head and shoulders
pattern that looks like it was failing
right here at 3:20. So, US oil has still
some work to do to get back up to that
support at 9321. Nonetheless, that is a
key fib level that does correspond with
previous pivots on the chart, one of
which that I did, like I said,
anticipate a little bit more support.
Very well could get that tomorrow with
price bouncing right back up and closing
above that level. However, if the
selling continues, our next area for
support beyond this level is at the
bottom of the parallel channel right
around $87. And you see how that lines
up also with previous pivots right there
on the chart. Interesting things going
on there on the chart of oil. Next up,
nat gas also nice decline today, but
still notice this near-term V-shaped
recovery. It's not completely out of
this
bullish consolidation to the right, but
it did put a close in underneath those
candles. So, that does increase
probabilities, much like what I was
saying on the Bitcoin chart, of a little
bit more downside on nat gas. But, that
doesn't end this potential breakout. As
we've seen, we've broken out above this
line, came back down, retested it, and
bounced right back up. We could be due
for a similar occurrence. That support
level on nat gas is at $2.90.
Next up, guys, into some big winners on
the day, ARM, Intel, and Meta all
pushing up because of Meta Muses
monetization and investors getting very
excited about the spillover effects into
companies like this, like ARM pushing
up. And I touched on this, as well as
Intel, in previous shows, which I'll
highlight here in a moment. But, notice
how this breakout failed initially.
And then we had price come back down,
put in 3 days underneath this declining
trend line. And then since on Thursday,
put in a nice breakout candle. Friday
confirmed that breakout. But, today we
did not get a retrace, guys. Sometimes
that happens on these breakout retrace
plays. They don't retrace. They instead
hit the ignition and blast off like ARM
did. Goodness gracious, big push, 17% up
on the day, getting itself back into the
top 50% of this inclining parallel
channel that has contained price back
since December of 2024. Now, next key
resistance up here 336.04.
We'll see if ARM can put in a daily
close above today's candle. If so, that
leaves this 50% area at 311.89
as a buying opportunity for continued
upward momentum on that chart. Great
breakout there on ARM. Also, continued
breakout on Intel. Now, I did have this
on the show on Thursday illustrating
this was at breakout watch. We didn't
get the follow through on Friday, but
goodness gracious, we got it today with
price pushing up through this gap fill,
had a little bit of resistance there,
but I see as far as a longer-term run on
Intel, guys, it looks like we're going
to be marching for the top end of this
parallel that's been holding price since
January of 2023. You can see we pierced
the top end range not far ago on June
30th, but near-term resistance as far as
tomorrow and the following couple days
will be right here on this inclining
trend line with tomorrow at $128.76,
but then beyond the next couple days,
you see how that extends out further,
bringing closer and closer to the top
end of this parallel channel that ends
up here at $142.19
by October 12th. But if this momentum
continues, we may just have one day of
pause and then they maybe a gap up over
that to get to the all-time highs and
the top of this parallel should see a
lot of resistance up here at the top of
the chart when and if price action
barrels up to that level. Another huge
surge today, Meta. Look at this, 11.34%.
Now, we did highlight this, guys, on our
show as well, how this was a breakout
and a confirming move here on September
15th, guys. That's when we highlighted
it. Look at this beautiful continuation
move and then retrace exactly to that
trend line. Now, guys, had you bought
this on Friday,
man, you had a fantastic day today cuz
price down here at 660, now we're
talking about 740
dollars. Man, what an 80 dollar per
share gain that was for Meta.
Incredible. Now, near-term, this
actually is significant resistance here
on Meta, this big huge wick up here to
the point of 743 dollars. Notice how we
closed underneath that range. So, this
is the level of contention. Should we
gap up over that level, then, guys,
we're going to be running up to the 50%
area of the parallel, and look on the
left-hand side of my screen. Where does
that align to? Brand new all-time highs
on Meta. It's not that far away, and the
chart is showing us it's got a path to
get there. It just needs to get through
this resistance. There's a minor gap
fill up here in the 750 range that we
did tag today, so that is axed off the
chart as well. So, guys, it's almost
clearing the path for Meta to start
pushing and pushing up higher, tag this
50% area of the parallel, and make
another set of brand new all-time high.
Speaking of all-time highs, this stock
right here, AMD, guys, brand new
all-time highs. Now, this also was a
breakout a watch scenario where we had
price action close above a near-term
declining trend line on September 17th.
Look at the momentum. This illustrates
what's going on in the markets right
now. We should be seeing a rollover
today with price coming down to attack
this declining trend line. We didn't get
that. Instead, we accelerated. We gapped
up and continued pushing higher. Notice
where we gapped up, right to the
all-time highs, and it just said,
"Forget about it. We're going higher,
guys." Look at where the resistance
though is on this next inclining trend
line, $620.
I'll rewind the time back out to show
you guys. We are literally in price
discovery mode on the chart of AMD. This
one pivot high, this single pivot high,
is one of the last levels of technical
analysis I can draw, at least for
long-term trend lines, that's going to
give me some sort of destination for
price
hitting resistance. And you can see
that's not that far. As I said, this
week it's basically $620. Next week,
looking around 625. So, whether or not
AMD gaps up over that, we'll find out
tomorrow, but if it does, I don't have
any other levels near-term of resistance
unless I start getting into some nuance
hourly parallels on this chart. However,
I can do that, but right now with the
long terms, guys, you got to tip your
cap to AMD. This is one of the biggest
monumental pushes for all-time high
accelerations that I've seen in quite a
while. Um generally, these are stopped
with a lot of investors hitting that
sell button, and that just did not occur
today. Now, when a stock in which
investors did hit the sell button is
UPS. Now, guys, look at this, down 4.35%
today, coming close in touching these
previous pivots back in May as well as
April of this year. Now, let me pull
back the charts just a little bit to
show you where we are on the weekly time
frame with UPS. We had a a very nice
sell earlier. Um actually, that's
towards the latter part of last year. Uh
towards September of '25. That created
this low range pivot. And what I did
here, you can see I've taken two trend
lines. Now, I've connected the first the
one on top to this low pivot. Notice
when price came down underneath that
range, it consolidated, tried to get
back above, failed, but then ultimately
got right back above that inclining
trend line. And now we find ourselves
coming back down towards the middle
range of price action underneath that
trend line. That illustrates to me
another potential support level should
UPS continue selling, one that I would
be interested in to go long at $85.98,
right here on this long-term trend line
coming from March 9th low, and
connecting over to the pivots from
September of 2025. That will give us
another opportunity to attack this very
sharply declining trend line that you
can see has been hit once, twice, three
times. This next fourth hit is a 50/50
shot of us breaking to go higher. Now, I
don't know about you, I like to buy my
stocks on sale. I look at this chart and
see UPS over $230.
It is on sale down here under a hundred.
It's just a matter of where you want to
get into, and I'm going to be waiting
down here when we get price just under
86 bucks. All right, guys, thanks so
much for tuning in and watching today.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to
the video. Send it out to your friends
and family so they too can learn
technical analysis on the charts. Got a
lot more stocks to go through this week,
especially if we got volatility and
surges like we saw today. Guys,
incredible push without very many
pullbacks. That tells me what I started
out with on the day. The volume was
somewhat low. Profit-takers are absent.
We'll see if they come back later this
week. Aside from that, have a fantastic
rest of your day and I'll see you guys
right back here tomorrow on the charts.
Take care, everybody.