My Trading Game Plan | September 22, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway [music]
and I was a losing trader until I
mastered technical analysis. Logic
[music] and charts beat hypes and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a [music] multi-millionaire. This is
my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, breakout has been confirmed on the
S&P. This is something I said was coming
for the last couple weeks as the markets
failed to really have a significant
pullback in spite of oil well above $100
per barrel and yields kissing and
piercing 5%. Now we're in this period
where we're starting to see oil back off
down again today and that is giving the
market a little bit of a bid, but not as
much as you might think. Well, I want to
cover that in just a minute, but let's
jump into the charts right off of the
bat here and we can see the S&P 500
yesterday. What an incredible move to
the upside here. Little bit of profit
taking right into the end of the day.
Overnight some chop. We saw one little
dip on the futures here at about 4:00
a.m. Eastern time before rebounding and
basically continuing on its merry way.
Just to show you guys here, look at the
controlled nature if you take out that
one little dip, the S&P 500 or S&P
futures here all the way across except
this one little dip here and it
continues thereafter. Now, in general
with us holding this level on the S&P
500, this tells me that again the
breakout is confirmed as long as we
don't reconfirm below this key level.
Now, let's go into the S&P chart because
this is a big one here to look at where
we currently sit. So again, here's the
chart that I've annotated out. I've had
this annotated for quite some time. We
can see here's our neutral zone right
down here. Anything in here, this is
where odds start to become more 50/50.
50/50 meaning that it's basically a coin
flip. Now, we did have one little pierce
as I explained yesterday that was on the
afternoon of the Fed where the market
initially freaked out. I came out and
said to you guys, "Hey, listen. This is
actually great. It's great to see the
Fed taking inflation seriously. The
markets are actually going to like
that." Sure enough, the next day we
ripped higher. Friday we closed higher
and then look at the move yesterday up 1
and 1/2%. Now, remember, I talked
yesterday in my game plan and I said,
"Guys, we got to close above 7,700.
That's your breakout line." Going into
yesterday, we were basically trading
right at that level and then by the end
of the day we blew right through it.
Nasdaq, in fact, hit a new all-time
high. Now, if we go back to the chart
and take a look, this is what I was
looking at. Descending trend line right
here connecting this high exactly to
this high here on August 28th to this
high on September 3rd. It gave us
basically the bullish flag pattern
breakout level. Here's your bull flag.
That's your flagpole. This is your flag
consolidation. All right? So, really
what we saw yesterday was a strong surge
blowing through this yellow trend line
closing strong. Now, we did close into a
little bit of minor resistance. You have
this little high pivot in this little
high pivot, but for the most part, this
now clears it to potentially trade all
the way up to this bigger trend line,
which currently sits around 7,900 and
change on the S&P, but within a few
weeks it will be at 8,000 and I still
think we're going to 8,000 on the S&P,
which is now only about 235
points away. And remember, we were up
114
points yesterday on the S&P. So, 114
points yesterday and we just need 225,
approximately, to get to 8,000 on the
S&P 500. So, that's where we are. Now, I
want to be clear, and I like to say this
because I think it's important, is that
while the short-term charts dictate my
short-term bias, it doesn't change the
aspect of how many problems there are
out there. And we all feel them, right?
I mean, you guys are out there, you see
the prices at the store, you see the
prices at the pump, the heating oil
issue with diesel prices where they are.
I mean, just this winter alone, if it
gets cold and you have heating oil at
the levels we are seeing right now,
there are going to be a lot of people
struggling to keep their homes hot or
warm this winter. But, having said that,
remember charts don't react to the
bigger longer term in the near term,
they react to short-term catalysts like
oil, and oil coming down, yields coming
down, is going to near-term push this
market up. All right, so that's where we
sit right now on the S&P 500. The dollar
continues to chop into resistance, but
still a ton of resistance in this range.
The 10-year yield down again today,
second day in a row it is down. Now, one
of the things to watch on the 10-year
is we're starting to make a base plate
right here, right? So, you put a little
bit of a trend line here, you could see
from here to this low to this low. And
the reason why that's important is that
this becomes a break point, where again,
while we're staying in here, inside of
this range, we can just go up, we come
down, we go up, we come down, kind of
like this, and it can just chop
sideways. Now, if it chops sideways long
enough, what type of pattern formation
is it making? Now, this is a quiz
question for you guys watching, wherever
you're watching around the globe. If you
have a sharp move up and price stays in
that upper range and consolidates, by
the way, we kind of saw this on the S&P
recently, so it's a little bit of a tell
there, but what type of pattern
formation could that start to form?
Could start to form a bull flag, right?
Again, bull flags are sharp up moves
like this with sideways consolidation.
Now, it's not at that point yet. I still
favor a breakdown, but the reason I say
this is because the best traders in the
world always have to be prepared for
anything.
All right? So, I might be bearish on
yields right now.
But, if price goes sideways for another
week on the 10-year yield, I have to
say, "Okay, well, I was bearish,
but now price is starting to make a bull
flag." Now, it's not doing that yet.
This is what we would call an immature
pattern. Immature and patterns by
definition have a low probability of
success, but again, in a week, it would
be a mature pattern, and I would have to
say, "Okay, we could be setting up to go
higher on rates." These are the nuances
as an investor and trader that will make
you elite. You want to compete and beat
the institutions? This is the data and
these game plans and here at Verified
Investing that we let you know about so
that you can actually make the right
decisions more often than not. All
right. So, that's where we are. Oil
today, look at this, guys. Oil is down
to below $94 a barrel. This was awesome,
guys. Again, so many bulls up here. I
saw it in the comments on my video when
I talked about my short on oil right up
in this range, and again, that gives me
extra confidence. It tells me that
retail is too invested on the long side,
and ultimately, we know institutions
don't want to pay them out, and sure
enough, we are now in our 1 2 3 4 5 down
days in a row on crude oil. Now, we are
coming into a little bit of short-term
support. There's a minor level around 92
and change. If we get through that,
we're looking at 87, but I do want to
just point this out, guys.
So,
think about this. We are about 5 weeks,
maybe a little over 5 weeks from the
midterms. And all of a sudden this
weekend, we heard about CENTCOM saying,
"Oh, more oil is getting through the
Straits of Hormuz than in the last 6
months." Then we're hearing, "Oh, maybe
Iran is saying there's a potential for a
deal." All of a sudden, the narrative is
flipping. And again, basically 5-6 weeks
away from the midterm. And these are the
things that honestly, it's not a
technical factor,
but if you're smart, if you just look
outside of the narratives being spun to
you
by social media, by the mainstream
media, and you think for yourself,
you start to put the pieces of the
puzzle together. And it certainly
doesn't mean that oil couldn't have gone
higher. I just very simply would say,
"Okay, well, we're at technical
resistance. The charts are telling me a
pullback is coming, and I know the
midterms are coming up. And how well
does it look to the Republicans who are
trying to keep the House and the Senate
if oil is north of $100? Hmm, not so
great. So, does it make sense that some
headlines, whether they're true or not,
is not my position. I could I can't I
don't know if they're true or not, but
it's narratives, and smart if you're
smart,
you guys can figure it out, and we can
put ourselves in a better position. So,
while the trend line short was probably
about a 70% chance, I looked at seeing
the midterms 5 plus weeks away coming up
very quickly as adding additional
probability to the short trade on oil.
Case in point, look at what oil did. All
right, so that's that's really again,
thinking outside the box. Don't get
caught up and and again, I would
literally say most people are stuck
inside the box. What does that mean?
Well,
I look at this and say, "Well, the
average person spends their time
scrolling Facebook, X, and all these
other places, or tuned into these
mainstream media outlets. They're
getting fed." I mean, think about it,
you're getting fed, force-fed,
narratives and hype.
And we, if we want to be
in the elite of investing, if we want to
take the step above to where we can
compete with Goldman and BlackRock. Now,
not money-wise. Listen, I can't There's
I'm never going to be able to compete in
my life money-wise with those players.
But success
success rate, you can do it. But you
have to get out of the so-called matrix,
if you will.
All right, you got to get out of it.
Think for yourselves. Think about other
things. Think outside the box. Do it and
succeed. That's a big one today, folks.
All right. Uh let's go on to some charts
here, guys. Let's look at AMD. AMD is on
my radar for a potential short. Uh this
would actually be a great potential
swing trade short. Major pivot high
right here, going back to the bull
market high of 2024 on these stocks.
Now, what do I mean by a major bull
market high? Big move up, big move down.
That's obviously a major mountain top at
that point. Now, turns out we went a lot
higher here, but look at this. Then you
have this push up right to that high.
Then we have a significant drawdown
here. Well, where do we think
probability sits that we might see AMD
run into resistance at this trend line?
We got super close to it, super close
yesterday. If this pushes up north of
620, I will likely start a small short
position. Probably even as a swing
trade. I mean, day trade, this looks
good. Swing trade, mwah, chef's kiss. I
like this one. And again, remember how I
trade. I don't go all in on my first
buy, because if I do that, I find that
honestly, especially on swing trading,
it doesn't work out always well, because
you're trying to step in front of a
freight train. How often does that work
out well for whoever steps in front of
the freight train? But if I can just put
a little bit in front of it, and then if
it pushes through a little bit more,
eventually the exhaustion works its way
out and the stock can come in. And I
really found for counter trend trading
it more so for swing trading, that's
really really important. All right,
another chart here. Meta had this
monster move yesterday. I mean, this one
even caught me off guard. If you had
told me prior that Meta was going to go
up 12% yesterday, I would have said
you're crazy. It was already up
massively from 1 month ago. It's now up
40% and remember, this is a $2 trillion
company.
And by the way, AMD yesterday hit a
trillion-dollar market cap. But Meta, 2
trillion up 12% in 1 day, not even on
earnings. Now granted, they have their
big Muse conference, their Muse debuted,
everyone's raving about it.
Yeah, well, people thought the Grok one
was great. I mean, this is just one more
of these AIs that is going to honestly,
it's going to basically cause them all
to be to the margins to collapse, right?
The more
AI models, helpers, whatever you want to
call, then we as consumers, it's
actually really good for us, for me and
you, because they're all going to start
competing for our business and that will
drive down price. Funny how
AI is jacking up inflation. You know, if
you try to go buy a computer or memory
right now, I mean, it is ridiculous.
Um
how about data center and energy use?
Ridiculous. But they're all coming out
with their own models, which will
inevitably then at least cause deflation
on the AI side of us using it. Prices
will come down. So it is you know,
listen, it doesn't make up for the
ridiculous energy cost and all those
other negatives out there, but it is
funny how they're all eventually they're
all going to it's going to be
commoditized essentially, much like the
AI chips will be as well down the line.
All right. Uh Microsoft, we talked about
that yesterday. I'm not going to go into
it. I'm glad to see we're starting to
see bounces on some of my favorite plays
right now on Clorox to the long side.
Now, I think this is the key in Nike we
saw a bounce yesterday as well. Nike's
gapping up this morning. This is what's
so good about these plays right now. So,
number one, they were beaten up so badly
that their RSIs, their all their other
factors were ridiculously oversold.
Again, these are relatively good
quality. They've stood the test of time.
They may not be flashy, but they're
quality, right? Now, the kicker is this.
As oil comes down and prices at the pump
come down and this is why I'm going to
tell you why these things are going to
rally and continue assuming oil comes
down more is that it gives back
individuals a little bit of disposable
income. Right? So, Clorox and their
products, maybe, you know, if you pay,
let's say you filled up your truck and
you have it cost you $20 less every
couple weeks, whatever, week or
whatever, whenever you have to fill up,
that's money that then can potentially
go towards these names. They pay
dividends, they're high-quality names,
Clorox great company.
These are the ones that I am really,
like if you look at what I'm long right
now, this is a huge chunk of them. These
quality dividend names that have been
beaten down to a bloody pulp. All right?
And again, makes sense that if oil's
coming down, disposable income goes up,
people can buy more stuff with that
money. All right, so again, looks good
on Nike, looks good on Clorox. I mean,
there's a you can look at so many of
these out there. They all look
relatively the same. They've been beaten
up. McDonald's, I mean, heck, even
McDonald's, look at this one here. Uh
McDonald's, by the way, I am watching
this one. If this somehow can get down
to this lower band of this parallel, I
love it. It's still got a little ways to
go, but it is getting there. But look at
how beaten up McDonald's is. I mean,
incredible. Now, again, you can like
McDonald's, you can hate McDonald's.
Frankly, I couldn't care less. All I
care about is what the chart is doing
and saying and whether or not I'm
getting the triggers or the signals to
be a buy or short. All right. Let's jump
into gold real quick. Gold yesterday I
told you guys that I see a whole lot of
chop happening over the next couple
months. I know we all want bull markets
or bear markets or whatever it is, but
honestly I don't see it on these charts
right now and that's really going to
what's happening today. I mean yesterday
we came down after the prior 2 days up,
then before that we were coming down and
then today we were down, we were up,
we're basically flat to negative. We're
staying within this little bit of a
parallel channel here and I think that's
where we stay at least for the
foreseeable future. If I see anything
different on these, I will let you know.
Same thing for silver, parallel trend
lines, price is now stuck inside of
that, which means a whole lot of ups and
downs and sideways chop in the near
term. Natural gas today catching a tiny
bid, again about as quiet as can be. You
want to see no volatility, look at
natural gas since basically February of
this year. At least for natural gas,
this is a really low volatility period,
somewhat unusual for the chart here. Now
again, we have our lines. We break above
here, all right, basically above $3, we
should head up to 330 or so. That's a
10% move up. We break to the downside
below 270, we should head down to about
250. So again, not quite 10% downside,
but again, watching this, this is
everything to me right now in terms of
which direction this will go. And then
Bitcoin, what a day yesterday folks,
incredible day. Pulling back a little
bit today after running into some
resistance, but as I said yesterday,
Bitcoin has now made a higher high on
this bounce, the first time since the
bear market started that's made a higher
high. To me,
I say I would say the bear market lows
are now in per the lows from earlier
this year. Um it doesn't mean we're not
going to have significant pullbacks. If
the S&P pulls back 20 or 30%, we could
easily go back and test, maybe even
break them. I mean if we saw big enough
sell off in the stock market, I think
Bitcoin could. But that's that's the low
probability scenario. Right now, I'm now
looking to buy pullbacks into support on
Bitcoin now that we have an official
higher high on the charts. All right, so
I'll keep you guys in the loop on that.
As always guys, remember at Verified
Investing, it's all data and charts, no
BS. We try to tell it straight. What are
the charts saying? Doesn't matter the
narratives, doesn't matter the nonsense.
What are the charts saying? And the only
reason I I've built this company with
these great traders that I have around
me and the great staff around me is
because I believe there is a need in
this world for unbiased chart-based data
assessments. And it's it's again, it's
the only thing that's ever worked for me
as a trader. It made me into a
millionaire from finding chart setups
that had a high probability versus
getting swooped up in narratives and and
nonsense. And I want you guys to at
least have that opportunity. So I thank
you from the bottom of my heart for
supporting us, for watching us, for
being there for us. You guys are why we
do what we do. And I want to say thank
you. So thank you all for tuning in to
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