My Trading Game Plan | September 23, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader [music] until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the [music] same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Hey everybody, welcome to my trading
game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So markets are pulling back ever so
slight today. Okay, we've had three up
days in a row starting from last week.
And ultimately what we're seeing here is
a little bit of a resumption of a bounce
in oil. Yields are pushing up and there
continues to just be this kind of unease
as we see yields stay just below 5%. So
we're going to cover that today. I also
want to look at a lot of stocks like the
banks. The financials have been getting
crushed. beautiful falls, opportunities
everywhere potentially if we hit some
levels. Bank of America is one on my
radar. I want to show you that is a
great swing trading opportunity. And
then we go on to other names out there.
We'll look at other names like KBH. KBH
reported earnings. We'll see where that
is and if there's a trading opportunity.
All right, so let's dive in here, guys.
Let's jump right into the S&P futures.
This is the S&P futures chart right now.
down just over onetenth of a percent. If
we flip to the intraday, you could see
that generally the markets overnight
were chopping sideways to higher. And
then this morning, oil and yields began
to push up a little bit and that brought
the S&P futures down. So again, remember
those are the levers that are
controlling the market right now. Oil
and then ultimately oil can trigger if
it's going up, it's inflationary that
pushes yields to the upside. looking at
the 10-year yield. Speaking of which,
look at this guys. We are at the highs
of the day, back to 4.992%
on the 10-year. Now, one of the things
we have to be aware of, yes, this upper
orange line is resistance per technical
analysis, but the more we chop sideways,
and I alluded to this yesterday in the
game plan, could this be a bull flag
starting to form, which could dictate
further upside eventually. How will we
know if the bull flag is playing out?
Super simple. All you need to look for
is when or if we have a daily close
above this 5.02
level. So 5.02%.
That is my line in the sand. Why is that
the line in the sand? Because if you
look over here, that was this pivot top
from October 2023 to here where we
pierced it, but we never got a close
above. In fact, this candle right here
closed at 5.02%.
So, it's very obvious here if we break
above it'll be a daily close, not a
pierce, a daily close on the 10-year
above 5.02%.
That would open the door to honestly
significant upside and probably a little
bit of concern for investors out there
because yields going up is going to put
more stress on the economy. All right,
couple other things here. The dollar is
breaking out today as well. This is
putting pressure on gold and silver.
Both of those commodities are down.
Let's take a look at the dollar.
Remember, the dollar had banged up into
resistance here, but look, it is surging
through this resistance point. So, we
may have a breakout on our hands on on
the dollar. And what this tells us is
the the dollar is becoming a little bit
more of a safe haven right now as we
continue to see the Fed take inflation
seriously. I know that sounds super
weird considering again it doesn't seem
like the Federal Reserve has taken much
seriously with all the QE and everything
else that they've done over the last
many many years. But again, Kevin Walsh,
no doubt, has given the financial system
a boost by showing that he actually will
raise rates in spite of what the
president wants and that he's even said
and that the the whole board has said
that they would be willing to raise
again into year end and maybe beyond
that if inflation doesn't come in.
Remember, the longer diesel prices stay
up, the longer gasoline prices stay up,
these are all input costs in addition to
output, which is you and I going and
filling up our tanks. But diesel
specifically is an input cost where if
you have a truck with lettuce on it, and
that truck has to go from California to,
let's say, Florida or California to
somewhere in the middle of the country.
It's going to burn thousands of dollars
in diesel just for all of these heads of
lettuce. Think about how much additional
price those heads of lettuce must be
raised to offset the additional cost in
fuel. That's where inflation comes in
here when you're talking in those
metrics of smaller individualized costs
of goods. Very interesting stuff. Okay,
so the dollar is pushing up. This is
directly putting pressure on gold. Gold
is down today. Now remember, we are
stuck in this ascending uh parallel
channel on gold and silver. Notice where
this trend line goes back to right here.
And then this one goes right through
these lows and connects to this low.
Now, today's downside in gold, okay,
it's down. Does it concern me at all?
The answer is no. The reason it doesn't
concern me is we haven't broken any
significant trend line. So, on a
technical basis, when you're looking at
the data, as far as I'm concerned, we
were at the low end here. We went up. We
then came down to the low end again. Now
we're just chopping here. Maybe we go up
here again. Or maybe we come down. But
unless we break below this line, there's
nothing really to worry about at this
point on gold. So, yes, it's a down day.
I know the bulls in the short term
really want upside. Not going to happen
when the dollar is this strong. And
again, the dollar going up, that pushes
gold down. the 10-year yield going up,
that pushes gold down as well. So, those
levers are pushing pressure on gold and
silver. Speaking of silver, same sort of
charts analysis here. We're stuck in a
parallel channel on gold and silver here
and silver specifically that we're
looking at. As of now, downside, yeah,
today we're down about almost 3% on
silver. But unless it breaks this trend
line, there's at this point nothing to
worry about. You have to assume support
will hold until proven. Otherwise, just
like up here, we had to assume
resistance would hold until proven
otherwise, and it certainly did. So,
that's a rund down there. Now, the big
one here, and I'm so excited to talk
about this. All right, we'll look at oil
in a second. And I know I should be more
excited about oil, but oil, let's be
fair. The the resistance rejected oil.
We heard a a you know, chatter about
maybe a deal. Maybe Iran was open to
talking. Um the president certainly has
a limited amount of time before the
midterms. If there's going to be a deal,
I think it happens before the midterms.
If we don't get a deal by the midterms,
then I'm doubtful we'll get one after
because again, there's no political
reward for doing a deal after the
midterms with elections another two
years off. But either way, after
multiple down days in a row on oil, oil
is bouncing. But the real kicker here is
natural gas. Natural gas, you guys know
that I've been talking about liking this
even though the chart has kind of been
dead and asleep. Take a look at this.
yesterday surging up over um $3 on
natural gas, which was my breakout
level. We closed above it. Now I need to
see confirmed action today, which means
we must close above 3.02
on natural gas. If we do that, I think
we have a major breakout starting with
upside really looking for this 330-ish
level. You can see all these high
pivots. This would be your next target,
which is about 10% higher, which is a
very solid move. What a move yesterday
on natural gas ripping up. I loved the
close yesterday above three. Now, can it
confirm? If it does, we should see
another 10% or so of upside in the near
term. Spinning over back to oil. Here's
your oil chart again. One, two, three,
four, five down days in a row on oil and
you're getting a bounce. Should any of
us be surprised you're getting a bounce
on oil today? Um, no. Not after five
straight down days in a row. I mean, we
literally had oil dropping from a high
of 107 down to 92. That's a 15 point
decline or $15 decline on oil over the
course of essentially five sessions. So,
yes, we're due for a little technical
bounce. On an intriguing aspect, look at
this. And this is something I pointed
out to you guys of where I said oil
would come into support. See this pivot
high right here? Put a trend line and
just drag it across. Look at that. In
fact, if you go back to my previous game
plans, we said, "Hey, I expected and I
was short oil up here. I'm no longer
short." But I said it would come down to
this level here around 93 94 and that's
where it would find support previous
pivot. You can even see here how price
went up, kind of stalled, stalled,
stalled, broke out. That means it's
going to find most likely support there
and you're getting a little bit of a
bounce. Do I think oil's going back to
110 or 105? No, I I don't personally.
Doesn't mean it can't, but again,
there's going to be more and more
pressure to make a deal. The Republicans
in the polls are suffering. Um, gas
prices are a main culprit. Inflation is
a culprit. You got to get that oil price
down. You got to get gasoline. Remember,
even the president yesterday floated an
idea of not allowing diesel to be
exported. And just like again, one of
the one of my biggest short positions is
the refiners right now with the crack
spread, which is their margin. They've
been making money handoverfist. In fact,
I reported, I think it was late last
week, that Europe is floating a windfall
tax on the refiners because they've just
been making so much money because of the
price of oil and the difference and the
money they're making from selling
refined products like gasoline um to
consumers that are having to pay these
higher prices. Either way, that's
bearish for the names like a Valero. And
if we look at Valero, look at the drop
that we've seen the last couple days.
First of all, look at the extension. I
still think there's more downside on
Valero. Again, we'll see if it happens
today with oil bouncing, but in the near
term, I do think Valero, PSX, MPC, they
all should come down much, much much
more. All right, listen. We're going to
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>> All right, guys, back to the charts. And
thank you, Keith, for making it possible
for us to do what we do here. All right,
we're going to jump right into the
charts of the day here. Take a look at
KBH down. Now, interestingly enough, the
30year yield hit a new high of 7.12%.
So, again, that's putting pressure. You
throw in trucking wood wherever you
want. I mean, it's the prices for them
to build are going up. And then for you
and I to buy if we're getting a
mortgage, it's going up. So again,
that's more and more pressure. So
believe it or not, KBH actually had
decent earnings, but the pressure
continues on these names. Where am I
looking at? First of all, not enough
movement as a swing trade or as a day
trade. But as a swing trade, I love this
level on KBH. Look at that. If it comes
down here as a swing trade right down
into this 4250 level only $4 lower,
that's the one to watch. All right, so
keep that on your radar. That looks good
to me. Now, the big thing here is what's
going on with Meta and the Muse. I call
it Meta Musol if you get the drift
there. But basically, this assistant,
this AI assistant is causing the bank
stocks to get crushed. The bank stocks
are getting crushed. Then you're seeing
Booking Holdings, RCL, which is Royal
Caribbean. I mean, basically anything
that an assistant can do is basically
causing these stocks to fall. Now, you
might say, "Well, why?" Well, because
the assistant can keep track of your
finances better than you or I can. I
know that sounds weird, but how many
times have we gotten charged a fee in
our bank account? I mean, even me. Even
me, I'm like, "Oh, I I I took out too
much money. I needed to keep a balance
right up here. What the heck?" Like, all
right. and they just charge me a $35
fee. Well, if you have these assistants,
all of a sudden they're going to notify
you about these things and they can fix
these things. Um, and that is the
kicker. Bank stocks, they make so much
money from the fees. That's really where
a majority of their money that they're
get reporting and earnings are coming
from. And so the fear here, just like we
had the software scare where these
software companies got crushed because,
oh well, you can have AI code for you
now. Well, now we're looking at anything
that is utilizing benefits of people
kind of not knowing enough information.
That's not going to be an issue anymore.
So, for instance, booking holdings.
Let's go to that here. We'll look at
this one first. Booking holdings. Look
at this drop on the daily chart. And you
might say, well, why booking holdings?
Well, because a your AI assistant can
find you the best price. Same thing with
Royal Caribbean. Royal Caribbean's
gotten crushed. Why? Well, because a lot
of people will just go to Royal
Caribbean and say, "Hey, uh, let's I'll
book that cruise. It's, oh, it's $3,000.
No problem. That's what it is." But now
your AI assistant can go search for the
best deal on a cruise. And so maybe you
can find that cruise for $2,500. Save
$500. That's pure profit to the cruise
line they're not going to get. This is
actually I mean, I'm a huge advocate for
humans. You guys out there, you guys are
my bread and butter. You guys are my
awesomeness. Um, you guys motivate me to
do it. I kind of like this. I mean,
listen, are there going to be draw downs
to AI? Of course. I I you know, probably
the human race will be annihilated, you
know, in like 10, 15 years. But in the
meantime, can you have your It's not
funny, but it's funny. But can you have
your assistant do things to save you
some money until that annihilation day?
Heck yeah, you can. And that's causing
the fall in these stocks. So, look at
Booking Holdings. Where am I looking to
buy booking guys? If it comes down here,
great triple bottom around $150 even
number right there trading here. But
again, watch this as a swing trade
opportunity. Bank of America, look at
this guys. Ascending trend line coming
up here. You also have this area right
here coordinated. If we can get down to
basically 55 bucks on Bank of America,
huge, huge opportunity as a swing trade
there. All right. So again, these are
the ones making waves and these are the
ones that I am watching. And by the way,
the bank stocks are going to be on my
agenda today for day trading. Not just
swing trading. I like the swing trading
levels, but the day trading as well. So
again, it's amazing how AI is disrupting
things. It's causing big sell-offs.
Again, remember earlier in the year when
we saw names like I mean, heck, we saw
uh Teams, Atlassian get crushed. I mean,
we can even look at some of those
charts. I mean, they've recovered, but I
mean, this drop here was just
incredible. But look, it was overdone.
And that's what I'm thinking here. The
bank stocks are still going to make
money. They still make money handover
fist. And the idea here is at these key
levels, at least as a swing trade, I'm
eyeing them. Same thing with Booking
Holdings, other names that are getting
crushed. You got to find the technical
levels. That's what I do. But I do think
there's opportunities if these things go
down just a little bit more. All right,
guys. That's all from me today. We've
looked at everything. Did we look at
Bitcoin? Maybe we didn't look at
Bitcoin. So, let's do that real quick. I
don't want to be accused of skipping
over Bitcoin in the comments. Bitcoin is
down. I did tell you we were into
resistance. This is going to be the key.
And if we pull back, 81 and change is
your level. So, again, Bitcoin is
dropping just a little bit here. Um, as
of now, I still think we've put in a
bare market low because we made a higher
high, but I'll keep you guys in the
loop. Go have a great rest of your day.
Let's go make some money in the markets.
I'll see you soon. Take care.