Trading The Close | September 23, 2026

Guys, welcome. My name is Drew Dose.
Guys, we're in the markets today wearing
a red shirt for a reason. We had a move
down in the markets. A significant drop
down uh disrupting some of what happened
over uh the most recent days breaking
out on the charts, guys. We've got some
stuff to go through. Plus, we've got
some potential breakout scenarios, even
with the downward pressure in the
markets. Let's get into some charts.
First off, guys, with the S&P 500, we
see here on the S&P 500 daily chart.
What happened over the last two trading
days, guys, we had a rip roaring rally
on Monday, pushing us above this
declining trend line. But then what
happened here on Tuesday, guys? We
didn't push up further than the high on
Monday's candle. More or less, we didn't
get any further extension. Look at what
that does to the chart when price breaks
out from a certain line. that that
extension move is critical to maintain
the breakout scenario on this chart. And
the S&P 500, guys, did not do it. We
simply are coming straight down on the
chart as you see here for the day. Now,
getting into the 10-minute time frame,
we can see when we came down to that
trend line, we actually pierced it,
paused, and then tried to rally to get
back above it, but then we just slid
down further on the charts. Part of the
reason of this decline, guys, today the
10year yield, the 10-year yield has
surged up to brand new all-time highs as
far as this year. Now, yes, we're
encroaching upon previous past year's
figures, but guys, we're going to get
into that chart in just a few moments
and see why the pressure persisted for
the first hour of the trading day today
and then ended up resuming towards the
end. As we see here, we're closing down
near the low range on the S&P 500. So,
if the 10-year yields continue to be an
issue, guys, we're likely to see the
spiders come down, connect back down to
this previous level of support, one that
we've hit and pierce now several times.
That's at $76040.
But what I'm most curious about tomorrow
is the yields, guys. What's going to
happen with the yields? Are we going to
continue to push up with the price of
oil going up as well with the hopes of a
potential peace deal in the Middle East
somewhat dissipating or at least it's
not as lukewarm as what it was earlier
in the year. Now into the NASDAQ
composite with the IXIC on the daily
time frame. Look at the difference that
occurred here on the charts. Compare it
to the S&P 500. We pushed up on Monday.
Tuesday we pushed up and got that
extension move. You can see clearly
today we're not breaching back
underneath this declining trend line.
Still holding the breakout intact. We
don't have brand new all-time highs
today, but we are at least maintaining
this near-term breakout, which makes the
support here on the NASDAQ much closer
at 26,692
points. So that's the benefit of waiting
to see a confirming push, waiting to see
that extended move on the chart. That
helps maintain the breakout at least for
a longer duration. Now, of course, we
can come down, pound on this trend line,
and the more times you hit it, the more
likely you are to break it. But much
like what I showed you on the 10-minute
chart of the spiders, we can come down
without an extended move and just really
slice through this line. And yeah, we
hovered around it for about an hour, but
then we really ended the day at the
bottom of the chart. Very much a
different story here on the NASDAQ,
illustrating that tech and na and um uh
this AI data center buildout is still
attracting a lot of buyers, helping to
push up uh the NASDAQ as well as the SMH
more so than the S&P 500 or at least in
this current state of bounces. And where
that makes sense though, guys, is really
on the SMH. Now, we were down 1% today.
Look though how far we are from the
all-time highs. Much different scenario
than the S&P 500 as well as the NASDAQ.
NASDAQ we just made brand new all-time
highs. So the SMH has a much larger way
to go to recover some of the ground that
they've already given up. And also with
this AI data center buildout, a lot of
companies or investors have reasons to
get behind some of these big chip makers
much like AMD that did push up higher
and make brand new all-time highs this
week. So into the semis we see we did a
fantastic job breaking out not only of
this declining trend line but we broke
out of this parallel channel. Now any
sort of selling pressure will find first
levels of support with the SMH right
here on the top of this parallel channel
at $585.15.
For new viewers this parallel channel
guys starts all the way back at the
liberation day lows in April of 2025.
You can see how clean we marched up in
this very tight channel before we
breached it this year when the war broke
out in the Middle East. And then we just
continued rallying all the way up,
creating a 294%
gain since those liberation day lows. A
very big push considering what we had
done on the SMH and previous big
rallies, pushing up 232%,
239%.
This one said, "Forget the 230s, let's
go to 294."
And that's just an incredible run that
the SMH has had. And as I said, down
back at the daily time frame, still
maintaining a near-term breakout from
both the parallel and the declining
trend line. This 60758 level, guys.
Let's just go over a little bit of
education. We've done this in this show
now for the last week or two, really
highlighting the Fibonacci sequence
retrace levels and showing you how
important they are, how they can help
you walk through each sort of chart.
Doesn't matter what it is. Whether
that's copper, whether that's uh the SMH
or whether that's the NASDAQ, it doesn't
matter. Throw up your fibs, enlighten
yourself, help you vi help your vision
capture the next resistance as well as
support levels. So, what I'm talking
about right here on the SMH, very simple
to do right from the all-time highs down
to the bottom, the near-term bottom. And
where does that come up? That comes
Oops, here. That didn't click on the
top. Boom. There we go. Right at 60758.
That's that fib 618 retrace level. We
should be experiencing resistance there
on any sort of push up, especially a
pushup much like this. That's rapid that
was 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 days from the low
right up until the near-term high. And
thus, we've seen some pullback. So, this
is just a technical pullback regardless
of what's going on in the rest of the
markets. The semis were due for a little
bit of a pullback today. Next up, the
big story of them all today, guys. Look
at that 10-year yield, guys. Oh my gosh.
On the daily time frame. This does
illustrate what I was talking about, but
it also proves me slightly wrong
considering the fact that we did
announce at the FOMC we're going to be
having another rate cut likely on the
table this year. And then WS did imply
that we potentially could have two rate
uh pardon me, I said cuts, hikes. Guys,
I may be optimistic in my brain, but the
reality is true. We're hiking rates. So,
we may have two rate hikes on the table
at the end of this year. For sure. we
likely are getting one. So, that made me
uh remain a little bit more bullish on
the 10-year yield. I was anticipating
more uh consolidation within this range,
potentially even hitting the 4.89%,
but once we announced two potential
hikes, that told me the price action on
the 10-year yield might at very well
best get down to this 50% area of this
parallel channel. And as you know, I
love my parallel channels, guys. Where
is this parallel channel going to take
us? Now, guys, take a deep breath. We're
going to zoom back out. All right. You
can see this parallel channel. If we do
continue marching up now, like with any
sort of breakout, a breakout that has
been had, we are doing some sort of
retrace. Now, we haven't gotten that
yet. Matter of fact, we're just marching
straight up on the weekly time frame
remaining overbought in the near term or
at least uh on on this chart at 75.99
with the RSI. Anything over 70 is
considered overbought in the near term.
But it doesn't take that gauge and
indicator to illustrate that this is
overbought. Look at all of these green
candles moving up on the chart getting
above the previous high at 5.021%
back from 2023. So that leaves the next
area of contention in this parallel up
here at 5.76. But you see I also at the
top of the chart have a resistance level
at 6.249%.
Now we're not going to be going straight
up there, but this illustrates really
where we are on the 10-year yield chart.
when I've got the FIB from the top all
the way down here to the bottom. Now,
keep in mind the top was back in the
80s, guys. This is back in 1981. So,
this was over 40 years ago of the
10-year yield data in front of you. And
you can cleanly see we have taken tears
stairstep methods down where we've gone
through the next level, bounced up,
maintained within this level in the 50%,
now we've gone down to the next level,
bounced up, next level, bounced up. You
get the picture, right? We've just been
cleanly taking stair steps down. And
that means we likely can cleanly take
stair steps up on the chart. Breaking
through that uh parallel channel will
then put the next area of resistance at
6.249%.
In the show tomorrow, we're going to
cover the 2-year yield as that is
encroaching right on the 10-year yield.
And when those levels invert, that's not
good for the market. So, we're going to
break that down tomorrow. Make sure you
come back for that show tomorrow when we
break down the 2-year verse the 10-year
yield. with the rising rates that did
not help the cause for both gold and
silver as both gold and silver pushed
down on the chart. We illustrated
yesterday gold did a fantastic job
trying to maintain within this inclining
parallel channel. Look, it's just given
it right back up today. Higher yields
putting pressure at least for the
near-term on gold. One candle now
closing underneath. We'll watch this
closely. The last time we had three
candles underneath this parallel, we
didn't get that extended move like we
saw on the NASDAQ. Matter of fact, this
looks more like the S&P 500 where we
just hung out right beyond the line and
then we just found ourselves right back
inside that parallel channel. Now we're
right back to the bottom side of it. All
of this though is just bearish
consolidation, this choppy move towards
the lower end of this price action on
the most near-term. And to remind and
also show any new viewers, we've got
this gold parallel that's been intact
back here since April of 2025. This
illustrates the area in which we have
been breaking gold most recently. Now,
the next support should we continue
lower right here at $4,219.
Similar story here on silver. However,
silver's maintaining at least this
near-term support uh trend line. This
trend line was the neckline of a head
and shoulders pattern that failed to
break down. So, near-term that was a
great move. Still is a positive scenario
for silver until we start closing
underneath that inclining trend line a
little bit. Even though we're down
3.92%,
silver is showing a little bit more
strength by holding this level. Whereas
gold is breaking the bottom of its
parallel channel. So silver slightly
more positive in the near- term. We'll
see if silver tomorrow can maintain this
low 6453.
If it can do so by the end of the day,
we should have a uh another positive
close for silver at least in the near
term with the pressure that remains on
that uh commodity. All right, next up
into Bitcoin. We did see a little bit of
a decline here on Bitcoin. Makes sense,
guys. We did have a great push up
earlier this week on Monday,
establishing ourselves in the next level
on Bitcoin. Now, you can see here I've
already got resistance trend lines
drawn. This is uh illustrated back here
of a neckline of a previous head and
shoulders pattern that had broken down
and was threatening a measured move all
the way down here, guys, to 37,508.
the bottom of the parallel saved the
day, at least for now, for Bitcoin and
has allowed price to uh navigate back up
on the chart. So, that neckline is going
to be the next major level of
contention, $88,858.
Next up, guys, into the cousin of
Bitcoin in a way. This is Ethereum.
Ethereum also has done a fantastic job
pushing up on the charts. Much like
Bitcoin held the bottom of its parallel
channel, but much like Bitcoin 2,
resistance is not far away. You can see
here we've got a very nice inclining
trend line dating back here to June of
2022.
That's connected over to major pivots.
It's provided support when prices come
from the top much like we've seen here.
Even in this candle here on the weekly
candle, look at that drop. Nice bounce
up, but it just ultimately could not
hold until it fought to get back above.
Much like here, too. A bounce right
before that trend line. So, this trend
line tells me that price action has
behaved and followed it pretty well from
the uh top as well as from the bottom,
finding resistance to get back in over
that trend line. So, that tells me too,
if we continue marching up on Ethereum,
this level here just above $3,000,
$3,041
will be a major level of contention. If
I get into the daily time frame, you can
see that pivot isolated right here after
we dropped. We created another pivot
high and then uh continued to fall
further. Notice how we we got a little
bounce right before that trend line.
Whenever that occurs, guys, that's a
warning sign for the next fall could go
beneath the support level. Anytime you
have price get near support and bounce,
be very wary when price comes right back
to it, much like what happened here on
Ethereum. Now, into the near term, you
can see cleanly that will be a double
level stack of resistance. Likely should
see some pullback if we can see Ethereum
continue to push up into that chart.
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into uh US oil. US oil, as you see here,
pushed up. As I said, the 10-year yield
did push up as well. nice gain today,
but we didn't get above yesterday's
highs, so it's really not too much.
We'll see if that develops tomorrow with
any sort of sideways chop creating a
bare flag. But a lot of this push up, as
I touched on at the beginning of the
show, has a lot to do uh with the uh
eroding of the potential peace deal over
in Iran. And as we all know, the
blockade in the straight of Hormuz and
then the other issues going on with the
Houthis and the Saudi Arabians, that's
not helping oil prices to remain lower
and push down on the charts. So, we're
going to have to kick the can into
tomorrow to see if we get any other
better news to help oil come down lower,
which the next level of support is going
to be at the bottom of this parallel.
$872
near-term resistance, $97.35,
the 50% area of this inclining parallel
channel. Next up into NA Gas. Great push
higher today on NAC gas, guys. It really
just didn't even really pause at this
bottom range, the consolidation. Just
continued pumping. But we see here the
pullback today is pulling price right
back into this range. So I anticipate
NAC gas to hang out here for at least a
couple days. If we get a pullback, I'm
going to be another buyer of NAC gas.
You can see I draw if I draw an
inclining trend line here connecting
these low pivots that provides another
great opportunity for a level of support
down here at 298 or anywhere just above
$3 depending upon when and how price can
get into that trend line. I anticipate
NAT gas to break through this declining
trend line at $324. Basically got very
close to target in doing so yesterday or
or pardon me earlier today and we'll see
if we can get that to happen with more
consolidation. So we got great support
and then we need an area to get over
likely will need consolidation to do so.
Flipping over to the RSI, you can see
we're encroaching upon that overbought
near-term level at 70. Currently at
65.99,
guys, into some potential breakout
scenarios for you in this red market.
And I did wear a red shirt for the red
day. Look at Fastly, FSLY. Now, the key
here is where can price close? We
clearly see we closed today $29.65.
that did not trigger this inverse head
and shoulders that is drawn on your
chart. Guys, if you know anything about
these patterns, they're one of my
favorite patterns to follow. Both
inverse head and shoulders as well as
head and shoulders patterns. And the
reason why they come with a measured
move target. There's too many retail
investors, including myself, when I
started trading, I get into a stock, I
like the stock, I like whatever it does,
or I like the support levels on the on
the chart themselves. And then what? You
get in and then what? Okay, I got it. So
what now? Where do I take profit? So
many retail traders don't understand
where. And it's critically important how
you get into a trade. You need to have
that idea before you even hit the buy
button or hit the short button. I'm
going to buy here. What if I'm wrong?
Where am I going to add to the position?
Or am I going to add to the position?
And then secondly, where am I going to
take profits? Most folks don't have that
answer. If you have a pattern, it gives
you a target to go to. Where am I
talking about on FSLY? Well, first we
need to put in a daily close above
29.83. If we can do that, that increases
probabilities of price action on FSLY
pushing up to $46.33.
This could be a very, very big push on
the chart of FSLY. Now, note this
inverse head and shoulders pattern has
been forming since April of this year.
So, this is a fivemonl long inverse head
and shoulders pattern. Again, not
triggered yet and likely won't be a
straight line up to 4633. If we do get
that daily trigger, we likely will come
into resistance at this previous pivot
top at 34.82
before we then potentially retest that
neckline for that breakout retrace
bounce play that we always talk about
here in trading the close. So, put that
on your radar with FSLY. Look at this
monthly chart, guys. We got a lot of
room to run on this chart if and when we
can get this uh critical daily close
over that neckline for FSLY. Uh, next
up, McDonald's. On the inverse side of
the coin, you can see here McDonald's
over the past several days here, uh,
from July all the way through August was
doing its best to try to maintain within
this inclining parallel channel that
started back here from March of 2022.
Over the most recent trading days, it
could not hold it, guys. Even plunged
further today. So, where do we find
support levels when we see parallels
have been broken? And let me back up for
a second there. When parallels get
broken, what likely uh does the stock or
commodity try to do once it finds its
level of support? Well, it likes to go
right back up and test where it just had
broken from up here at $27355,
right on the bottom of that inclining
parallel channel. But where do we find
the levels of support, guys? What have
we been talking about in here over the
past week or two? Some fib retrace
levels. All right, so we take it from
the low here in CO all the way up to the
most recent high. And where do we have
the 50% retrace? Right on the horizon.
Now, let me double check that this is up
here at the top because that matters,
guys. Pennies and dollars matter as far
as the exact analysis to get these
figures uh correct for you on the chart.
So, there you go. That's about as close
as I can get it at $232.79,
the 50% retrace. Notice how that comes
in contact with this consolidation
range, these low pivots. That makes
sense that we should see a potential
bounce here at this area of McDonald's.
In addition, look at this daily RSI
25.87
on the chart. All of that tells me with
this last little plunge, we are in the
zone for a potential bounce up on
McDonald's. One of which optimistically
can take us back up to the bottom of
that parallel. Watch the bottom range of
this consolidation though since it
occurred over so long. we will likely
see sellers if and when McDonald's does
catch a bounce up into this range of
resistance. Uh next up with a also not
really carving out a good day down 4.1%
on the daily time frame. You can see we
just simply move price back down to
where we have been consolidating. Now
back to the weekly time frame because I
think this really cleans up this charts
analysis. We have a down move and a bare
flag that also implies further downside
to come on the chart. Plus, um, we did
have news breakak today that A is likely
capped out with some of their revenue in
the near term. That's something
investors don't really want to hear, but
considering where we were on the chart
up at $745. And what's on my mouse, by
the way, what is this? That's a weekly
topping tail, guys. Daily topping tales
are somewhat easy to find. We we hang
out in the daily charts an awful lot. Do
yourself a favor, flip to the weekly
time frame. It condenses all the noise
that the daily candles can have as you
see on this chart. It really cleans it
up. You see a very clean bare flag
pattern where the current chart is. But
then you can also find these hidden gems
amongst the chart. A weekly topping tail
that carries more power than a daily
topping tail. And when you see this on
the chart on this weekly topping tail,
look at that. We sold straight off after
that weekly topping tail. Even retraced
it. So say you missed your chance to
short or you were long here and you
missed your chance to take profit. Look
at that retrace and look, it did not get
through it. Instead, sold straight back
down. So, that was our signal. That was
our heads up that A was about to have
some problems. That was all the way back
in September of 2025. But this is the
great thing about technical analysis.
Once you learn these patterns, you can
go back and reinforce these patterns by
watching and learning throughout other
pivots throughout the course of any
single chart that you watch. Now, in the
near term though, you see I've got a
declining trend line where I aimed to
connect this low pivot. And in doing so,
I also noticed that price when we
rallied up here in August, we paused for
3 weeks. Matter of fact, we got rejected
here before we broke out. So, that tells
me too that this declining trend line
likely will be an area of contention
should we have price come down to it.
Now, right before this trend line, we've
got this fib retrace support at 886
retrace right towards the lower upper
range of these candles that occurred
back in April of 2025. So, now I've got
a support zone 26264
as well as this declining trend line
right around $252.
And that $10 zone should be a very nice
support area, one capable of providing a
bounce to retest this $300 level on the
chart of A. A lot of times, guys, um,
whenever bad news hits on a stock and
say it hits when it's towards its
near-term lows, that could be the last
little bit of bad news before we see
some good news and a good near-term
technical bounce. All right, next up,
we've got Google, one of the bigger
companies in the stock market with a
down day of 3.8%. You can see price
action coming through and settling
today's close right on this gap fill.
What we've got going on with Google are
two things. largely we've been trading
within the parallel channel. Breached
the top ever so slightly, but now we
find ourselves getting rejected by the
50% area of this parallel and coming
right back down. Good thing for Google,
we've got a near-term inclining trend
line as support. That's right here at
332 or actually about $333
on the chart. You can see that
corresponds just above this gap fill at
332 and60. So, should Google continue
falling tomorrow, I anticipate there to
be some decent support here, one capable
of keeping Google within this wedge
pattern, uh, falling down on the charts.
And so, Google, as we know, the longer
though it hangs out here, this could be
more bearish consolidation on the bottom
of this trend line. Hey, one last piece
of information for you on this education
front. This trend line has hit once and
twice. That means this third hit has a
very high probability of producing at
least a near-term bounce capable of at
least getting to this low range pivot at
$34064.
What you don't want to see is what I
touched on before giving you that last
piece of education. You want to see the
bounce if we come down into this level
extend away from that trend line. The
more that we hang around it or say we
get a near-term bounce and then come
right back down, that would be signs
that we could be breaking. So, keep that
in mind if you do decide to take this
near-term scout play on Google. All
right, guys. Thank you so much for
tuning in and watching today. Don't
forget to like and subscribe to the
video and also send it out to your
friends and family so they too can learn
some technical analysis on the charts.
Guys, we've got one more day tomorrow on
trading the close. Can't wait to bring
you some heat. Should have some other
great volatility. Hopefully, not another
big red day. Uh, thus the red shirt
today, guys. Take care. Look forward to
seeing you all tomorrow.